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Re: My Daughters FIL is going to have everyone over for Easter Dinner [kiki] [ In reply to ]
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kiki wrote:
knowing nothing (and commenting anyway)

I wonder, with a virus as aggressive and opportunistic as this, if you can get reinfected shortly after recovering, but have a commensurately milder reaction (feel off but not sick) due to an adapted immune system. And get better at fighting it with each exposure.

paging François

Again, caveat I am not a doctor...

But my suspicion here is people who were declared "recovered" simply never were. It seems that the part of this thing that "makes you sick" isn't the virus really, but the body's reaction to it. It could very well be that people react to the virus by getting sick, maybe clear that reaction but are still infected. Maybe they are producing antibodies actively, but still haven't cleared the virus, then a few days later start feeling sick again as the virus doesn't get completely kicked out and the body reacts again trying to kill it.

Basically I think our immune systems are good enough to figure out how to kill this thing. However it might be taking much longer for the timeline to play out. Flu plays out over a week. But we are seeing simple incubation from infection to illness be more like 2 weeks here, and another 2 weeks to "feel better". So I can easily see this thing just being more like a 6-week illness and we aren't seeing the tail end of it yet from the first people who were infected.

I don't believe people are being reinfected. I am guessing that people simply aren't actually 100% recovered yet.

Again I am not a doctor and if someone with better knowledge can educate me if what I wrote above is wrong, please do so.
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Re: My Daughters FIL is going to have everyone over for Easter Dinner [g_lev] [ In reply to ]
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This article has information that may be useful. https://thenativeantigencompany.com/...-tests-for-covid-19/
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Re: My Daughters FIL is going to have everyone over for Easter Dinner [DavHamm] [ In reply to ]
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DavHamm wrote:
Could website with the model. The thing is everyone talks about the line's in these models, when really they should talk about the clouds. The lines are 1 projection, the clouds show the range of what really could happen.

So to say the projections are wrong, no were still well in the cloud, just below the avg response.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/...ed-states-of-america

The uncertainty ranges in those models are so large that it could be anywhere...

And from a practical or planning purpose, a significant limitation is that it doesn't provide view by metro/geographic areas which are more useful. e.g. - the peaks for VA and MD are several weeks apart presumably b/c it's an entire state average but there really is no practical boundary between VA and MD for folks in this area.
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Re: My Daughters FIL is going to have everyone over for Easter Dinner [40-Tude] [ In reply to ]
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And on the whole Easter / isolation thing, we're pretty good with staying safe. Our Easter get together event was online w/family in NY.

Meanwhile our neighbors across the street had their 2 adult sons and their SO's over for Easter. Today they have their maid service/crew at work in their home. . . and they had recently come back from Aruba in early March. I don't get it.
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Re: My Daughters FIL is going to have everyone over for Easter Dinner [g_lev] [ In reply to ]
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g_lev wrote:
kiki wrote:
knowing nothing (and commenting anyway)

I wonder, with a virus as aggressive and opportunistic as this, if you can get reinfected shortly after recovering, but have a commensurately milder reaction (feel off but not sick) due to an adapted immune system. And get better at fighting it with each exposure.

paging François


Again, caveat I am not a doctor...

But my suspicion here is people who were declared "recovered" simply never were. It seems that the part of this thing that "makes you sick" isn't the virus really, but the body's reaction to it. It could very well be that people react to the virus by getting sick, maybe clear that reaction but are still infected. Maybe they are producing antibodies actively, but still haven't cleared the virus, then a few days later start feeling sick again as the virus doesn't get completely kicked out and the body reacts again trying to kill it.

Basically I think our immune systems are good enough to figure out how to kill this thing. However it might be taking much longer for the timeline to play out. Flu plays out over a week. But we are seeing simple incubation from infection to illness be more like 2 weeks here, and another 2 weeks to "feel better". So I can easily see this thing just being more like a 6-week illness and we aren't seeing the tail end of it yet from the first people who were infected.

I don't believe people are being reinfected. I am guessing that people simply aren't actually 100% recovered yet.

Again I am not a doctor and if someone with better knowledge can educate me if what I wrote above is wrong, please do so.

On the immune system angle, I recall reading an article that it's the body's immune system response to this that causes complications. Basically some folks' immune system kick in very aggressively, too much so, and that then becomes an issue. Was successfully treated by meds to dial that reaction back. It wasn't known why some people have this kind of immune system response while others did not.

(caveat - not a doc or medical pro myself. And I don't remember the source to link to unfortunately).
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Re: My Daughters FIL is going to have everyone over for Easter Dinner [NormM] [ In reply to ]
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NormM wrote:
This article has information that may be useful. https://thenativeantigencompany.com/...-tests-for-covid-19/

Thanks. I was able to digest most of that. Very helpful.
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Re: My Daughters FIL is going to have everyone over for Easter Dinner [Kay Serrar] [ In reply to ]
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The issue that they haven't figured out yet is if they test positive because of active virus. The tests only check for a certain piece of RNA from the virus. It could be that virus debris is still being shed (remember it concentrates deep in the lungs, and moves outwards via the "ciliary conveyor belt" over time) but whether that viral debris is still infectious (needs virus membrane intact to enter human cells) or not hasn't been conclusively determined yet.
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Re: My Daughters FIL is going to have everyone over for Easter Dinner [40-Tude] [ In reply to ]
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40-Tude wrote:
DavHamm wrote:
Could website with the model. The thing is everyone talks about the line's in these models, when really they should talk about the clouds. The lines are 1 projection, the clouds show the range of what really could happen.

So to say the projections are wrong, no were still well in the cloud, just below the avg response.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/...ed-states-of-america


The uncertainty ranges in those models are so large that it could be anywhere...
.

Exactly these models you keep hearing of have huge uncertainties.

Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.
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