kajukenbo wrote:
I'm pretty sure Argentina will default on their debt within a year. They might even default before their general elections in October.
The one thing that may be different this time is the involvement of China. China is investing heavily in Argentina.
If Cristina Fernández de Kirchner wins in October, she would probably be more friendly with the Chinese. Of course, I think the Chinese will make sure any further investment on China's part is paid back in one way or another.
I'm not sure what is going to happen, but this is one of those rare times most economists seem to agree on something. That something being that it isn't going to be good for Argentina moving forward.
I have views on this I can't really share, but I can say that CFK is not running for president. That's not to say as a VP she wouldn't be influential and that's certainly what investors fear, but Alberto Fernandez is considered to be much more moderate.