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the best long-term investment
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"A painting by legendary French Impressionist Claude Monet fetched a record $110.7 million in a frenzied eight-minute bidding war at Sotheby’s auction house in New York."

"The unnamed seller of the Monet “haystacks” masterpiece bought it for just $2.53 million back in 1986. Total return: 4,300%."

http://www.msn.com/...r-AABnHfq?ocid=ientp

I saw this the other day and just thought to myself it was not realistic price (as if there is any). But it was a good value for someone to pay as well a pretty good ROI for the seller.
I suspect it will reside in some kingdom or "a ruling family" somewhere (assuming it was sold to a private collector).
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Re: the best long-term investment [b4itwascold] [ In reply to ]
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There are one heck of alot of Monet paintings around. Not even counting fakes. At some point they will be worth alot less. Good for this guy to get someone else to pony up that much cash at this point.

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Re: the best long-term investment [b4itwascold] [ In reply to ]
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Several years ago some guy purchased the ex Steve McQueen Porsche 911 that appeared in the 1970 movie "LeMans" for an absurd $2.3 million. He then spent the equally ridiculous sum of $500 K to get the car "restored" to like new condition effectively erasing any part of Steve McQueen from the car. I would have left McQueen's shit stains on the seat if there were any just to keep it as original McQueen as possible. I would seriously suspect the car now would not sell now for anything close to what was paid for it.
Last edited by: cerveloguy: May 15, 19 18:38
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Re: the best long-term investment [cerveloguy] [ In reply to ]
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OTOH, Also lots of stories on items bought in a garage sell found to be worth a lot.
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Re: the best long-term investment [b4itwascold] [ In reply to ]
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I would guess that if you invested 2.5 million at different times in the 70's and 80's in companies like Microsoft, Apple, Dell, etc. you would be up man, many billions now. As to a long term investment, suppose they could go belly up one day, but if you took a couple bill off the table first, think you would have been ok..Wasnt there a story recently about a guy that owned 10% of apple and sold it early??
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Re: the best long-term investment [len] [ In reply to ]
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If I could have afford any original it would have been a Modigliani or a Chagall.
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Re: the best long-term investment [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
I would guess that if you invested 2.5 million at different times in the 70's and 80's in companies like Microsoft, Apple, Dell, etc. you would be up man, many billions now. As to a long term investment, suppose they could go belly up one day, but if you took a couple bill off the table first, think you would have been ok..Wasnt there a story recently about a guy that owned 10% of apple and sold it early??

I guess you are correct.
A $1,000 investment in Microsoft on the day of its initial public offering, or IPO, on March 13, 1986, would be worth more than $1.6 million today, according to CNBC calculations. That includes price appreciation and dividends.

That painting was bought in 1986 too.
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Re: the best long-term investment [b4itwascold] [ In reply to ]
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IIRC the winner is Home Depot though I don't have time to validate it at the moment. It IPO'd at $12/share, currently trades at $193/share, and, after you factor splits, 1 share at the IPO would be ~45 shares today so [(193 x 45) - 12]/12 = 722x

...and that's before factoring ind dividends or if you reinvested those dividends.
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Re: the best long-term investment [GreenPlease] [ In reply to ]
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But isnt that Microsoft investment a 1600 return on investment over that period of time?? What math am I missing??
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Re: the best long-term investment [monty] [ In reply to ]
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I am not sure either. In any case HD was IPO'd in 1981.

So, if you were to invest today $1000 for your kid, for the next 30-40 years. what stock or type of stocks would you pick?
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Re: the best long-term investment [b4itwascold] [ In reply to ]
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So, if you were to invest today $1000 for your kid, for the next 30-40 years. what stock or type of stocks would you pick? //

That's a tough one, as I would tend to be a gambler and swing for the fences. That swing would be maybe Tesla, or Uber, or any of the leaders in very new technologies. But I would probably just get a share of Amazon or few shares of Apple. I thought I was a genius when I bought amazon for $160 and sold it for $240, dam I was smart..(-;

Those two companies are likely to be the GM or GE of the past century, but of course we know what happened to those two companies. But 30 or 40 years out, ought to be ok with either..
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Re: the best long-term investment [b4itwascold] [ In reply to ]
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Bump your time frame down to 5 years: Ethereum.
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Re: the best long-term investment [monty] [ In reply to ]
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I am a bit of a gambler myself. wrestling with the idea weather to sell my Shopify stock. Bought it when price was in high 80's (not low teen it was IPO'd) and its close to 280 now.
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Re: the best long-term investment [b4itwascold] [ In reply to ]
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I know I'm missing a lot of somethings, but I don't think the painting is that pretty.

maybe she's born with it, maybe it's chlorine
If you're injured and need some sympathy, PM me and I'm very happy to write back.
disclaimer: PhD not MD
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Re: the best long-term investment [b4itwascold] [ In reply to ]
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Short Amazon.

Be Uncommon
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Re: the best long-term investment [Dr. Tigerchik] [ In reply to ]
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as far as I am concerned you are not missing anything. its either someone that like Monet use of light and colors and his place in the history of art perhaps (blah blah), or just a super wealthy person that needs this kind thing to enhance his sense of worth and for its prestige.
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Re: the best long-term investment [ZimZam] [ In reply to ]
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ZimZam wrote:
Short Amazon.

Is that meant for Monty/
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Re: the best long-term investment [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
But isnt that Microsoft investment a 1600 return on investment over that period of time?? What math am I missing??

I did that from my phone in 30 seconds and butchered the math. A correct assessment of Home Depot's total return since its IPO:

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A $1,000 investment at the IPO price in 1981 would be worth $13.967 million today with dividends reinvested.

https://finance.yahoo.com/...1-000-130300932.html
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Re: the best long-term investment [ZimZam] [ In reply to ]
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ZimZam wrote:
Short Amazon.

How long are you thinking here? As long as it takes?

Long Chile was a silly place.
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Re: the best long-term investment [b4itwascold] [ In reply to ]
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b4itwascold wrote:
I am a bit of a gambler myself. wrestling with the idea weather to sell my Shopify stock. Bought it when price was in high 80's (not low teen it was IPO'd) and its close to 280 now.

Well you could always sell some of your stock, 25%, 50%. You don't need to sell it all. Shop is a stock I like to use as an example of something so far in the stratosphere but recently has been replaced by Beyond Meat instead.


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Re: the best long-term investment [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
But isnt that Microsoft investment a 1600 return on investment over that period of time?? What math am I missing??

Confusing multiple with percent. A $1,000 investment that grows to $1,600,000 would be worth 1,600 times the original investment, which equates to a 160,000% return (technically, a 159,900% return because you don't count the original $1,000 investment). That's roughly 37 times greater than the 4300% return on the painting.

And as pointed out in subsequent post, the current value would be closer to $14,000,000, not $1,600,000. That would be a 1,399,900% return, or about 320 times the return on the painting.
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Re: the best long-term investment [Thomas Gerlach] [ In reply to ]
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Thomas Gerlach wrote:
b4itwascold wrote:
I am a bit of a gambler myself. wrestling with the idea weather to sell my Shopify stock. Bought it when price was in high 80's (not low teen it was IPO'd) and its close to 280 now.


Well you could always sell some of your stock, 25%, 50%. You don't need to sell it all. Shop is a stock I like to use as an example of something so far in the stratosphere but recently has been replaced by Beyond Meat instead.



I should add that I already sold my intial investment back on 3/1 when the stock price was $191. Beyond Meat is really interesting, I didn't think of this meat alternatives types of products.

As for the long term, I was thinking Solar companies, or 3D printing (which didn't take off as it was believed to). your (or anyone's) thought? Amazon as Monty said?
I am not using this post as a request for advice but rather as s stimulus for discussion.
Last edited by: b4itwascold: May 17, 19 6:01
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Re: the best long-term investment [len] [ In reply to ]
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len wrote:
There are one heck of alot of Monet paintings around. Not even counting fakes. At some point they will be worth alot less.

maybe. But artists estates and auction houses do a pretty good job of controlling the market. They get to determine Provenance which ultimately determines value. So in the end if more of the world's wealth ends up in fewer hands the more valuable these unattainable assets will be.

For a fun case study on this consider the grading system of baseball cards. Most cards have been terrible investments. 30 Year ago Micky Mantle rookies were selling for $10K-25K. But the industry reduced supply by creating a robust grading system. The $10K cards are worth the same (maybe increased at the rate of inflation) but the premium cards - the ones selling for $25K back then - are selling for well over $200K. The "ruling class" of the baseball card industry protected their investment buy creating a system to reduce supply. Brilliance.
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