No such thing as luck. To believe that an unknown force gives and takes away is to believe in a life without free will.

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"The great pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do."

"Luck" is more than just some unknown force; it can refer to "circumstances" or "good fortune". Prince Andrew is a prince because he was lucky. Known in some circles as "privilege," too.

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"Go yell at an M&M"

I agree with that assessment regarding "luck" as in, why someone might carry a rabbits foot, etc...

However, there *is* such a thing as good fortune. Being born into a prominent, wealthy and stable family isn't "luck" but it is good fortune and is a huge indicator of future success.

I think you could add connections to your list. In the past, I would agree it was easier, not easy, to get ahead with your 4 attributes but today, one of those really does need to be connections. It is a whole lot more difficult today if you don't know someone or have had better access growing up.

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TEAM HD
Each day is what you make of it so make it the best day possible.

Whenever I ever try to have a conversation in person about white privilege (or privilege in general) to a person who doesn’t think it exists or really doesn’t know.....

I start with this....

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FBQx8FmOT_0

Then explain that we can debate government’s role in fairness or if there is no “fair”, but we won’t debate that lots of people are born into situations that aren’t as simple as “work harder”.

If people bother to read any actual history not peddled by the capitalist schools you’ll soon realize the rags to riches scenario throughout history is actually much more rare than portrayed.

And the pretty vile and manipulative beginnings of many early American businesses and institutions lasting till today (and the families and sickos involved).

No such thing as luck. To believe that an unknown force gives and takes away is to believe in a life without free will. //

In poker we call it variance. If you play properly for long enough, virtually anyone can be a winning player. But the problem is that people dont play properly, or even know how too. So in a short time period, variance can get reduced to luck. IT is kind of like flipping a coin, each flip has a 50/50 chance of heads and tails. But the variance says that sometimes you will get 15 heads or tails in a row. If you get 15 of either and quit the game, you were lucky that you chose to play it when the variance was in your favor...


So I suppose some peoples lives are like this too, just happen to be alive, or in a place, where the variance on quality of life issues are either in, or against them. May need several generations of their family to get good, or go bad, history is full of those stories...

I think you could add connections to your list.
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Or, put differently, relationships. A good worker with a bad relationship base is going to get fired or passed over quicker than a bad/ mediocre worker with great relationships. See references in many places as the Boys Club-type stuff.

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Take a short break from ST and read my blog:
http://tri-banter.blogspot.com/

Slight variation on the theme, courtesy of one Chris Rock:

I don't think your second sentence is in any way related to whether luck exists or not. "to believe in life without free will" isn't a counter argument to almost anything. Free will either exists or it doesn't regardless of the implications.

You're lucky I don't feel like arguing today.

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"The great pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do."

You went from point A to point Z really quickly.

You have driven while distracted. You have not struck and killed someone while driving distracted. You attribute your fatality-free driving record to being a generally responsible driver and that does seem reasonable. But it is true that there are drivers who are more or less as generally responsible as you that have killed someone in that very rare instance that they were driving distracted. That is luck.

It's worth listening to one Malcolm Turnbull on the subject.

He's about as accomplished a man as you'll ever encounter. Raised working class by single father. Became:

- successful journalist
- successful lawyer (he beat the British Government in the famous "Spycatcher" case)
- successful investor (made millions in the Internet 1.0 boom)
- successful banker (started boutique merchant bank that he sold to Goldman Sachs, becoming a global director there)
- successful politician (becoming Prime Minister of Oz).

He has no trouble acknowledging the role of good fortune in his life. He says that he was at global directors conference while at Goldman Sachs where the Chairman (I think Blankfein?) gave a rousing speech about to the effect that they were all masters of the universe who deserved their tens of millions of dollars per year as just reward for their hard work and cleverness.

Turnbull claims he took him aside and asked 'are you serious? Don't you think there are millions of smart people who work as hard/ harder for very little money simply because they haven't had the same opportunities?'. He says Blankfein would have none of it. Luck played no role. Anyone not as successful was in some way not as deserving - end of story.

Just Turnbull's version of it, but if true pretty staggering.

From my perspective, it's mostly luck. Not some embodied higher power. Just the vicissitudes of 'the benign indifference of the universe' as Camus put it.

In a nutshell, small differences or changes at the very beginning, can have huge affects later on. Like where or who you were born to, or any of a million little things that along the way set you on a completely different path, either good or bad...


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect

I have always thought that most of what we call good attributes usually would fall under what you have labeled as luck. That doesn't make them bad, that you have to feel bad about it, or that you have to give away all of your stuff. But it DOES mean you should be aware of the traits and circumstances that got you where you were and remember it does not in itself make you a better person.

I didn't do anything to be born smart. I came that way. I remember conversations and lectures oddly well and have exceptionally good recall.

I've also wondered if things such as liking to work hard and being competitive should fall under the same category. Again, not a bad thing at all, but often a product of birth, upbringing and circumstance.

And I think by 'connections' above they were speaking of the kind of connections that get a gentleman's C student into an Ivy League school and brought into business deals by virtue of their family/friends/business connections and not talent or ability.

None of those things make you a bad person because you are fortunate, but they also don't mean you are a better person. And you should be aware of what actually got you there. And that taking the attitude that I got mine now you have to get your's actually does make you a bad person.

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I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

So question.. and this is more to poke extreme.. a person born into poverty and crime is unfortunate, none of those things their own fault, just bad chance. So if they fall into that lifestyle and become a drug dealer, murder some rival gang members, rape a girl or two.. do we just discount that as "hey that was their lot in life.. it doesn't make them a worse person."

Where do you get to take credit for yourself, and flip side have to stop giving credit/blame to your environment (luck) if you will.

Honest question and it should evoke some inner conflict in anyone who's actually willing to engage in cognitive self-thought about this subject.

The biggest luck you can get is getting the right parents

Yep and all the circumstances attendant to that. Then of course your personality which is probably largely determined by some combination of genetics and your early childhood, in other words, mostly influences out of your control (assuming for the sake argument anything is in your control, ever).

My daughter tested crazy high on gifted and talented tests. I always tell her they call it gifted because it means nothing unless you do something with it. Like someone giving you a paintbrush- it you leave it in a drawer it doesn’t make you special - but if you add work and make beautiful art with it- then it may help define you. It gives you an advantage if you add work. So luck for the gift has to be combined with hard work. I think connections too. She has G&T teacher who has tapped into her gift and that makes all the difference!

Maybe I'm exposing my ignorance here, but what's the "theory of modern American depravity?" And what does it have to do with theories of the determinants of success (which seem more universal to me)?

(And I googled some combinations of the subject line words, but didn't find anything obvious.)

Well that too. I thought by the most obvious markers of depravity like violent crime, it peaked in the early 90's and has declined by a very large amount since then.

Question:
1) What is wrong with “luck”?
2) When we claim that our good luck is really hard work and or skill, are we not actually devaluing these other attributes?
3) Government initiatives often try to remove luck from the equation. But government usually seems to simply add another source of randomness to the equation.
Are all efforts to reduce the role of luck destined to fail?
4) Narcissism is a condition where you believe that the rules of the world must suddenly change the moment you get involved.
Is modern America, the internet or the lavender room working to encouraging narcissism?

I’m reading this and thinking about it in terms of marriage.

1). Nothing is wrong with luck. That your spouse is not tempted to be unfaithful has an element of luck to it. There is also no shame in luck. Luck should be humbling, it should encourage and attitude of gratitude.

2) No devaluing. All these elements are necessary. There are billions of random circumstances that put us where we are; our ability to navigate these circumstances involve hard work and skill. It’s good to identify the distinction between luck and hard work, but the only element any of us can influence is the hard work side.

3) Government is a source of randomness. There are always externalities, and while “The People” can prevail to improve the luck of some, the unintended consequences can damage another. Tax laws which encourage marriage (an institute generally seen as beneficial to the whole) can hold a bad marriage together to few’s benefits.

4) I didn’t know that was the definition of narcissism. In a marriage there isn’t much space for narcissism, pride or arrogance.