The highlight of today is give saying he'd take the job only if he can renegotiate the deal

To be clear. Every single person suggests that olly Robbins is one of the most astute operators in government

The EU have made clear their boundaries

Not sure how a deal they'd agree to could differ

They are all fucking idiots and we get the representation we deserve

What's the body count in terms of how many of May's ministers have now resigned? Northern Ireland causes ills yet again, it seems like.


"The sticking point is the issue of the border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, and the Irish Republic in the European Union.

Both sides of the Irish border want a resolution that avoids having physical checks on goods and travel on either side. To avoid the need for checks, May has agreed that the U.K. will remain aligned with the E.U. via a customs arrangement that contains a mechanism for an extension should the U.K. and the EU fail to agree a permanent solution before negotiating time runs out."

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"Politics is just show business for ugly people."

;-)

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"Politics is just show business for ugly people."

I'm not sure what all this circus is about. It has been clear as day from the moment that stupid referendum was even announced that the Brexiteers were promising a pipe dream. Populist bullshit about unelected bureaucrats controlling your life and promises of nixing everything that is (apparently) bad without harming anything that is (apparently) good about membership in the EU.

Just read a piece in National Review with some lady named Madeleine (assuming she's a British) complaining that May is not delivering what people voted for. BULL FUCKING SHIT. What people voted for does not exist. It was clear to almost half the population then and maybe the brexiteers need an actual beating by reality to recognize their stupidity. You can have your Brexit but you can't have it without pain. So take it without lube or stay in but don't complain that May is not able to get real unicorns to your party.

Same message I've got for the dipshits preaching repeal and replace btw.

From what I see, the people who think of themselves as British and not "European" were Leavers and the Brits who refer to themselves as either being from "Europe" or as "European" were Remainers. I haven't been in the UK in years, but I always noticed that there were Brits who'd automatically correct you if you referred to Great Britain or the UK as being in Europe. They were the ones who called Europe "the Continent," though. ;-)

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"Politics is just show business for ugly people."

I'm European and from The Continent so really don't have much skin in this game (small country). I'm just amazed at how we got here when the facts were plain as day the entire time. People really are just mind-numbingly fucking dumb.

Heh. Truer words were never spoken, sir. ;-)

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"Politics is just show business for ugly people."

Literally too stupid to insult

I'm British and Irish and if I can eventually pull it off something else and where we are now is completely absurd

The only thing that's funnier than this is Italy and a potentially unified eu budget, finance managed by Greece for the germans

Hahahah. Somewhere in DC there's a dude with a crazy combover right now going: "Hold my grape soda..." ;)

Just don't keep your money in French banks. The entire EU banking system is so unbelievably f&%!ed it's unbelievable. The Brits will look like geniuses (they already do) for keeping their own currency. In the next three years you'll see the Euro trade below parity with the dollar and, at some point, you'll see massive bail-ins from SocGen et al as it becomes clear that, at best, 40% of Italian "assets" are worthless. Euro denominated trade finance died after the Cypriot bail-ins (if you were a depositor you lost 50% of your money overnight). EU banks have no way to make money as their NIM is zero at best. Without profits banks bleed capital and without capital banks die. The Brits don't have this problem and if they are smart they'll hitch their capital markets to Mexico.

BTW, Europe's current economic and financial malaise (which is only going to get worse in the next decade as the EU's consumer base shrinks) was predicted by competent economists (instead of EU cheerleaders) in the 1990s. Monetary union without fiscal union has only one potential outcome and anyone who paid attention in introductory economics should know what that is.

Just keep coffee and beer money in euros..........

When properties sell will be moving it all back to sterling

I don't think the euro survives another 07/08 as is

No German will ever allow a Southern Europe finance minister....

So how do you see this shite show shaking out in the end? I'm with you about a finance minister from one of the southern European countries. That's anathema to the thriftier and harder-working northerners, from what I've read.

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"Politics is just show business for ugly people."

Vote of confidence

I think she'll scrape it because who else would want this bag of shite

Her deal gets voted down

Then we have a total melt down

She can't stay

Tories can't find a sensible leader

No one will vote on the tory side for no confidence so no election

No new deal will be negotiable

I think we get an amendment asking for people's vote

Government asks for extension for a second ref

Second ref

Now, if that votes out again they are all screwed

What a mess!

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"Politics is just show business for ugly people."

When I was in France for work, without fail what everyone wanted to ask the English (American) speaker is about Trump..........or Brexit.

Oddly enough I follow a decent amount of the Brexit stuff on NPR, they seem to carry as much talk of that the last couple months as Trump. Maybe a 2:1 ratio, but still impressive.

In this case, Europe pulled a Trump and wouldn't budge. Hate some of his policies or not, he's not going to give up as much as others have at the negotiating table. And in this case, Europe maintained the steep cost of exit.

I think though Europe could also take warning in that the barrier to entry also be pretty high, they don't need a bunch of freeloading debt takers in eastern Europe jumping on thinking they can have the rest of the union bail them out without contributing.

Personally, I honestly cannot see a second referendum. Doing so would create a precedent for the SNP and cause a serious risk to the future of Great Britain. This is why the Irish backstop is such and issue. What I believe may happen is this:

No vote of confidence


Deal put to the House


Deal voted down


Vote of confidence


May replaced


Intensive negotiations


Minor EU concessions


Remember, any deal has also got to be approved by the other EU member states and some of these elected politicians have already expressed sympathy with May. The principle of subsidiarity is, after all, one of the key principles of European Union law.

There is no majority to renegotiate around the edges

The backstop is the problem as is the issues with standards, the ECJ and CU

The EU will delay the exit for a second ref

The biggest issue is passing new primary legislation

Amendments to the deal will / could result in a second ref after which legislation would need to be brought forwards

There is no majority for any one option at the present

I'm not sure I follow.

Are you suggesting elected officials in Madrid, for instance, will allow the EU to push for a second referendum in the UK which would only embolden separatist movements in Scotland and Catalonia?

Also, why would amendments to the current deal require a second referendum in the UK? If the current deal is put to the House, voted down, a new deal negotiated (whomever is PM) - why would that deal not simply be put to the House?

There is no majority that can coalesce around any deal which takes us out. Labour have no wish to be seen to support a tory government, the hard right and DUP can not support a deal keeping us in. So irrespective of who is tory leader there is no deal that passes

The EU would love for us to stay. Not only have they said it publicly, again today, but they constantly say it privately. A very good friend is the private sec to a former PM. They say publicly and privately they want a second ref and us to stay

In the event the tories eat their own - again. They will not find a leader that can get a deal that does not create a seperate regulatory regime for NI that is acceptable to the EU

So we either split the UK, leave with no deal and keep the UK together or we have a second ref

I'm guessing May wins the no confidence - and then they are stuck with her for another two years. I am guessing the deal gets voted down.

Bercow will allow amendments. He's a remainer and he will support grieve et al

I'm guessing that the first instruction from the house will be go back and try again

The second will be to bring forward legislation for a second ref with an instruction to ask for an extension to A50

At present I think the EU would take an extension in exchange for a new Ref over crashing out because the tories will crash out. The erg can withhold enough votes to prevent may passing the deal and no Labour mp could look their constituency in the eye if they enabled a tory pm whos mp's don't even support

I think we are in general agreement. Whether or not there is a change in leadership the deal will be put to the House, voted down, and the House will instruct the PM to re-negotiate or face a hard exit.

However, where I think we differ is on the resolve of the EU member states. I also read that Merkel does not believe there is room for re-negotiation. But that's typical EU sabre rattling. At the end of the day the elected politicians of the member states the EU is meant to serve also want a deal. But to your previous point, the EU doesn't want to be seen to have compromised.

So where I think we will end up is a discussion around how everyone can save face with the EU coming under pressure from its member states. For instance, this may mean 'enhanced' border controls for Ireland or, more likely, the outer ring of the EU generally so that the UK can avoid a hard border with Ireland and say its 'standards' have been applied. There is always room for negotiation.

What disappoints me with the present government is that it has chosen to play continually into the hands of the unelected EU bureaucrats rather than isolating them from the elected politicians of the member states they are meant to serve. The cynic in me thinks May's retirement strategy is to be the next President of the European Council. In any case, I believe the good friend you reference may be talking more about these unelected EU bureaucrats, as I firmly believe the UK government has more friends than they are letting on, especially given Merkel's recent domestic weakness.

Anyway, two expats arguing over the future state of a country they left. No wonder BigKahuna finds is entertaining ;-)

EU president was Blair ambition........ Possibly the best thing to come of this..........

Ireland will never accept pushing what's effectively the UK border to Dublin Airport

The problem is intractable and in the end the EU wants two things; to not encourage anyone else that you can get the benefits of being in when out and to prevent the UK from lowering standards on the periphery of europe

Anyway, interesting times