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CA Legislature Now Has Supermajority
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Now, let's watch and see how the Democrat playbook runs now that they can institute any policy or tax increase with a veto-proof majority. New Governor, Gavin Newsome, will lead the charge and is clearly vying for a POTUS run in the future. To me, the next two years will highlight to the country what the Dems want to accomplish nationally (as goes CA goes the Dems...). Perhaps we will see practical solutions to immigration, gun control, healthcare, social programs, etc....perhaps we will see the opposite.

Gavin was the nice guy caught dating a 19-yr old and providing alcohol then had an affair with the wife of his campaign manager (and best friend) when we was married. Not that anyone, particularly in CA, gives a crap. Better than a 'family values' Republican doing the same since the Dems don't ascribe to the 'family values' concept and Republicans don't actually practice 'family values'. I only mention Newsome's history because I think he's a complete douchebag as a person and we'll see him eventually running for POTUS - not Trump level of douchebaggery for sure. I've learned to be very comfortable with Moonbeam over the years but he's had to fight the liberal legislature and I don't believe Newsome has the chops.

I voted for Feinstein - who looks like a voice of reason and moderation these days in the state. So, will Gavin and the legislature guide more towards the middle and govern closer to Governor Moonbeam or will CA fall off the left coast continental shelf driving taxes even higher and policies farther left? Will be interesting to watch but I, for one, am not optimistic. Watching what topics the legislature are willing to debate is scary enough, and some get through the process and concern me: prison reform, social programs, gas taxes, 'bullet train to nowhere', housing regulation, pension reform (or lack thereof) etc etc.

The company I work for are leveraging AI to ingest and structure news and government filing information from over 300,000 sources on a 24x7 basis and structure the data and sell material event triggers to Wall Street correlated to assets. One asset class we monitor are municipal bonds - there are about 2 million active bonds in the US at any point in time across about 60,000 Obligors of debt. We track every single one of them and correlate material news down to the CUSIP of a bond - meaning that all day long I'm watching what is happening across Propositions and Municipalities and the effect on bonds. We track by geo and sector (hospitals, schools, etc) and CA is pretty scary when you see the details on what's actually happening. We also track public and private companies and signals that effect a P&L. This insight makes me far less comfortable about CA than I might be otherwise.

For me, my wife is now officially domiciled in AZ and I'll do the same this summer as our youngest will graduate HS and head out into life. I'll enjoy watching CA from afar since I'm in the fortunate position to be in the highest income tax bracket and pay huge property taxes because we own a few properties here (and a sailboat for which we pay property tax both on the boat and for the slip space we rent from the City of Long Beach).

Here's one little sign of the differences between CA and AZ -- my wife recently bought a used car, drove it to Tucson to register it because they don't collect sales tax on used car registrations and you can register the vehicle for two yrs at half the cost of CA. We'll also move the boat down to the Sea of Cortez and avoid $4800 in property tax.

CA won't miss my income taxes or property taxes what with Hollywood and Silicon Valley incomes at play, atleast for those who haven't played the loopholes.

Trump certainly fucked us on the property tax deduction cap (Thanks Trump!) but there's always a way to deal with that.

And, my apologies to AZ as us moderate Californians become liberal Arizonans (in relative terms). Too late now, we're comin'...



https://thehill.com/...a-state-senate-after
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Re: CA Legislature Now Has Supermajority [JD21] [ In reply to ]
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Gavin was the nice guy caught dating a 19-yr old and providing alcohol then had an affair with the wife of his campaign manager (and best friend) when we was married.



I am on record as liking Newsome. But both of these situations give me major pause. There is in fact something very wrong with a 39 year old dating a 19 year old. And there is most certainly something wrong with someone having an affair with their friend's wife.

Both show a profound lack of judgment. Even if you are ok with the dynamics of the relationships (which I am not), the willingness to engage in behavior that is virtually guaranteed to lead to very negative consequences is troubling.

So now I am left with someone whose politics I agree with on a lot of issues who I think has serious personal negatives and was definitely old enough to know better. At least I won't have to come down on one side or the other unless/until he runs for president. Though after Trump we have thrown out any pretense that we care about character so I guess anything goes as long as your side wins.

As for the Democratic supermajority in CA, that almost always leads to bad things. Without a healthy check on power people dust off every batshit idea they ever had, they just can't control themselves. And corruption tends to follow that too as there isn't anyone with the ability to force investigations.

I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.
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Re: CA Legislature Now Has Supermajority [JD21] [ In reply to ]
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Some times you wonder if you are doing the right thing and only time can really tell. Your thread just reinforced why I moved from CA to AZ. I hate Newsome. He is destined to become one of the Dem's stars and maybe even a Presidential candidate one day. High taxes, socialistic policies, protecting criminals over victims.... the list goes on and on. I love the geography and beauty of CA but when balanced by the insane politics I voted with my feet. To paraphrase a wise man:


The (CA) government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.

"The great pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do."
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Re: CA Legislature Now Has Supermajority [jkca1] [ In reply to ]
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jkca1 wrote:
Some times you wonder if you are doing the right thing and only time can really tell. Your thread just reinforced why I moved from CA to AZ. I hate Newsome. He is destined to become one of the Dem's stars and maybe even a Presidential candidate one day. High taxes, socialistic policies, protecting criminals over victims.... the list goes on and on. I love the geography and beauty of CA but when balanced by the insane politics I voted with my feet. To paraphrase a wise man:


The (CA) government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.

yeah, screw that $9,000,000,000 surplus...

----------------------------------
"Go yell at an M&M"
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Re: CA Legislature Now Has Supermajority [klehner] [ In reply to ]
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//The (CA) government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.

yeah, screw that $9,000,000,000 surplus... //

Gosh, I wonder where all the surplus is coming from? Hey, maybe it'll eventually be sufficient to cover the current and growing pension obligations!

CalPERS has unfunded liabilities — benefits promised compared with anticipated funding — of $136 billion, Nation says. For CalSTRS, the projected red ink is $87 billion. That's based on 2016 data, the latest available.

http://www.latimes.com/...-20180118-story.html
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Re: CA Legislature Now Has Supermajority [JD21] [ In reply to ]
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 pay huge property taxes because we own a few properties here //

Come on man, so perhaps you pay a sizable amount of property taxes because you have valuable and several properties, but saying they are huge is just not true. IF you lived in Texas they would be huge(around 3%, not the 1% we enjoy here in CA). As for the car stuff, ya it sucks here, but talking 100's of dollars vs 10's of thousands in property tax differences, well that seem a little bait and switch, no?


I get the rap on Newsome, I guess we just have to wait and see now if any of Moonbeam rubbed off on him, I hope so. If not, we have a recent record of recalling a governor, just hope we dont have to go down that road again. Things have been going pretty well the past 8 years for us, even those pension obligations you like to talk about are coming down. To be clear, people are getting their pensions at the state level, but there is a day of reckoning off in the distant future, so it is time to start taking chunks out of that now. Just like with federal obligations, no one has been immune to this bad policy over the past 30 years, best to turn the ship a little now, rather than all at once in 20 years..


Az is great, you will love it there, guess you already know that. If they had an ocean I would move there myself. And it seems most of the state has moved more towards your line of thinking as as far as politics, nice to see a state actually moving to the center these days. Good luck, you should get a nice return on your properties here, you will be an AZ mega millionaire!!!
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Re: CA Legislature Now Has Supermajority [JD21] [ In reply to ]
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Thanks for putting that on the table. Good luck paying that CA but you can always raise taxes again and again...

"The great pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do."
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Re: CA Legislature Now Has Supermajority [monty] [ In reply to ]
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Come on Monty you’re better than that. Texas doesn’t have income tax and makes up for that in part from high property taxes.
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Re: CA Legislature Now Has Supermajority [Grant.Reuter] [ In reply to ]
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But that is not what he was talking about, and each person will either benefit or suffer in the two environments. Personally for me, property tax is the single biggest tax I pay, by a lot. If it were tripled it would cripple me, and that is figuring in the state income tax into the equation...

Not sure about everyone else, but it would be pretty easy to figure out.
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Re: CA Legislature Now Has Supermajority [monty] [ In reply to ]
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Obviously, part of the reason we pay a lot is the due to the price/value of the properties. Let's face it, when we have bad weather we should get a reprieve on our income and prop taxes since that's really why we all pay out our noses to be here. We have a nice rental house that's paid for and easily covers all costs with a pure profit of about 70% after costs, we'll probably rent the place we're currently in and will gain about 50% profit (might sell the current one as we have concerns about CA economy and real estate in the coming years, will decide this summer).

Take what you spent for your current place and go purchase a similar property in TX -- you might pay a higher % but lower $s and you'll be well ahead when you look at income tax. 9% - 13% in CA is brutal for state income tax, especially for people like me who work in startups largely for stock so 'wins' come in buckets and have a combined effective tax rate of 50%.

I'll do the same work with the same income in AZ. Add lower state tax, far lower utilities, far lower gas prices, lower insurance, lower property taxes and it's a great gain for someone like me. It's a loss for CA (again, not that the state will feel it) but if high earners/entrepreneurs continue to depart and start companies elsewhere OR retire in CA because it's not worth the effort for the net gain (this was my other option, just retire and call it a day in CA).

Again, all of relates to my specific situation. But the post isn't really about this dynamic, it's really about Newsome and the super-majority in the legislature and our legislature going off the rails. Or not.
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Re: CA Legislature Now Has Supermajority [JD21] [ In reply to ]
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CA doesn't have a practical solution to gun control? Do tell!

I'm relying on Newsome to raise CA taxes on everything.....my pension depends on it! This CA pension sure does go a long way here in 'Merica though.
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Re: CA Legislature Now Has Supermajority [JD21] [ In reply to ]
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It's a loss for CA (again, not that the state will feel it) but if high earners/entrepreneurs continue to depart and start companies elsewhere //

Who do you think is going to buy your house there in your OC beach community, 4 families of illegal immigrants?? The family that buys your house at its value now, could very well be a higher earner than you are, at least pretty comparable, wouldn't you say?? They will be paying a lot more than you did, have a new higher tax base, so it would be safe to say that CA will not be a net loser in the situation..(-;


I'm not as skeptical as you, but like I said, Gavin will have to prove himself here, especially if he want to go further to national politics. IF CA turns on him, then he is toast nationally. I really think if Brown was 10 years younger, he could have made a great run in 2020 with his record the past 8 years here. He is just too old now and I think losing some marbles, and he has earned a nice quiet retirement after all his years of public service..Newsome got a slam dunk on this election, hope he has the foresight and cajones to make the most of it...


I hope I can come visit you when we become an island, that big San Andres split is long overdue...
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Re: CA Legislature Now Has Supermajority [monty] [ In reply to ]
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Screw that! Come visit when the boat is in the Sea of Cortez.
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Re: CA Legislature Now Has Supermajority [spudone] [ In reply to ]
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Like I said, AZ doesn't collect sales tax when registering a used car that was purchased - that's a lot of $s. I'll pass on Seattle. We are headed to AZ where my wife can support all of the Dem agenda and vote straight Dem but be relieved of the burden of living in a state with its effect. This is more her idea than mine. Go figure.
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Re: CA Legislature Now Has Supermajority [JD21] [ In reply to ]
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JD21 wrote:
but if high earners/entrepreneurs continue to depart and start companies elsewhere


I've been hearing this for over a decade. And I've yet to see any evidence the exodus has begun, much less that it's "continuing."

It's easy to find hyperventilating articles identifying some "millionaires" (as if that's an exclusive club these days) leaving. Of course. CA is a huge state. Probably thousands of rich people come and go every day.

But if you look at actual data, it's just not there. For example CA had one of the highest rates of GDP growth in 2017, ranked 6th in the country. 4th per capita. Same with other metrics like median household income.
Last edited by: trail: Nov 14, 18 15:37
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Re: CA Legislature Now Has Supermajority [JD21] [ In reply to ]
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You don't have to apologize to AZians for moving here, there's plenty of space and it helps level out the cost of housing so that we can one day move (back) to CA. But if you ever copped an attitude at the beach and called someone a Zoni then you owe 3 100 mile bike rides in July. We do have an ocean but it's not in Arizona (Rocky Point)...it's effectively ours.

I moved from San Diego to Tempe 15 years ago, but in a month we are heading to Portland where the liberals truly run free.
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Re: CA Legislature Now Has Supermajority [trail] [ In reply to ]
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Quote:
It's easy to find hyperventilating articles identifying some "millionaires" (as if that's an exclusive club these days) leaving.

I’m technically a millionaire.

I don’t feel like a rich person.

Civilize the mind, but make savage the body.

- Chinese proverb
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Re: CA Legislature Now Has Supermajority [trail] [ In reply to ]
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//I've been hearing this for over a decade. And I've yet to see any evidence the exodus has begun, much less that it's "continuing." //

I meant continuing after me. No telling the avalanche of entrepreneurs who will depart once they hear I’ve defected. No telling... ; )
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Re: CA Legislature Now Has Supermajority [klehner] [ In reply to ]
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yeah, screw that $9,000,000,000 surplus...

Thanks Trump
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Re: CA Legislature Now Has Supermajority [klehner] [ In reply to ]
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A shame in a country.. err state.. running a $9B surplus that there's homeless littering the streets of the major cities and kids going hungry. Well done, CA. Well done.
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