monty wrote:

Monty, do you think most pros swim this all out, or their race day pace?
Ya, I think that most of them go hard, until they don't, like the finishing couple hundred meters for many. And looking at the times, it looks like Lionel swam in a group with Wurf most the way, a bunch of people in that 30 second range, Lionel 24 seconds back of him at the finish. I would guess it was the larger of the groups that formed, and then some sprinted in, others just cruised in. Lionel's and Wurf's delta to the winners is encouraging though, that is a distinct improvement from last year and should bode well for both of them if conditions stay the same...
For the few leaders they of course drilled it, around 47 flat is a good time, even on the short course. And no surprise Lucy was able to hang on Josh's feet, he stand alone time pulling water the whole way says she would be fine at his pace in the draft. And a shout out to an old, old friend from the past who is doing Kona for the first time in many moons, Juliana Nievergelt, she has to be pushing 60 these days, and she still beat a lot of women pros here in a 55+!! Good luck Juliana!!
Looks like the course was neutral, not too fast, not too slow, just about average. Have to keep in mind that a lot of the folks are not fully tapered, another week to race, and a lot more fast feet to follow on race day, except for Lucy and Josh of course!!

Monty, do you think most pros swim this all out, or their race day pace?
Ya, I think that most of them go hard, until they don't, like the finishing couple hundred meters for many. And looking at the times, it looks like Lionel swam in a group with Wurf most the way, a bunch of people in that 30 second range, Lionel 24 seconds back of him at the finish. I would guess it was the larger of the groups that formed, and then some sprinted in, others just cruised in. Lionel's and Wurf's delta to the winners is encouraging though, that is a distinct improvement from last year and should bode well for both of them if conditions stay the same...
For the few leaders they of course drilled it, around 47 flat is a good time, even on the short course. And no surprise Lucy was able to hang on Josh's feet, he stand alone time pulling water the whole way says she would be fine at his pace in the draft. And a shout out to an old, old friend from the past who is doing Kona for the first time in many moons, Juliana Nievergelt, she has to be pushing 60 these days, and she still beat a lot of women pros here in a 55+!! Good luck Juliana!!
Looks like the course was neutral, not too fast, not too slow, just about average. Have to keep in mind that a lot of the folks are not fully tapered, another week to race, and a lot more fast feet to follow on race day, except for Lucy and Josh of course!!

Monty, you keep saying the new course is short. The new course is accurate.//

No, it is short from the old course. I'm pretty sure I have said this several times, but one more time since you must have forgotten. Yes, the old finish is a bit shorter, but the start now is a "lot" shorter than where we used to start. I remember swimming next to the pier for a very long time at the start before getting clear, now they start nearly at the end of the pier. There has been start creep since the late 80's, to where it has been for 20 years now at the end. Those two things basically cancel each other out, and the turnaround was a hard buoy that could not move, and of course the start is hardened as well


You are correct, the new course is an accurate 2.4, but it is short from the old standard course that was used for 35 years before it..

OK I was not aware of the start creep that you explained. I thought the really old course was shorter than the recent "old course" which was longer than the really old and the new courses. I stand corrected.

Monty, do you think most pros swim this all out, or their race day pace?
Ya, I think that most of them go hard, until they don't, like the finishing couple hundred meters for many. And looking at the times, it looks like Lionel swam in a group with Wurf most the way, a bunch of people in that 30 second range, Lionel 24 seconds back of him at the finish. I would guess it was the larger of the groups that formed, and then some sprinted in, others just cruised in. Lionel's and Wurf's delta to the winners is encouraging though, that is a distinct improvement from last year and should bode well for both of them if conditions stay the same...
For the few leaders they of course drilled it, around 47 flat is a good time, even on the short course. And no surprise Lucy was able to hang on Josh's feet, he stand alone time pulling water the whole way says she would be fine at his pace in the draft. And a shout out to an old, old friend from the past who is doing Kona for the first time in many moons, Juliana Nievergelt, she has to be pushing 60 these days, and she still beat a lot of women pros here in a 55+!! Good luck Juliana!!
Looks like the course was neutral, not too fast, not too slow, just about average. Have to keep in mind that a lot of the folks are not fully tapered, another week to race, and a lot more fast feet to follow on race day, except for Lucy and Josh of course!!

In all my years of swimming, I've never seen the draft advantage so clearly delineated. TBH, I did not think it would be this great, was thinking more like 2%.//

You must never have swam in a lane with 6 guys then, it is quite apparent that the draft advantage can be a lot higher than you even accept now. I figure there are times when I'm getting 5 seconds a 100, so depending on the pace, upwards of 7 or 8+%. And now we got Josh's take on the actual race, Lucy was only drafting about 1/2 of it apparently, so she got all those savings in about 2000 yards. I think for her in this race it was as much about being able to follow someone the second half, as much as trying to stay on his feet and getting a good pul. When you are all alone on the front picking your own route and pace, things slow way down in comparison to what happened here. It will be a totally different swim for both of them on race day, as well as all the followers. I would suspect that Wurf and Sanders will have slower times on Saturday.