That part of the cycle is already here. I'm witnessing it in many FL markets. Naples is a prime example. There's a huge amount of inventory available but nobody is willing to pay the prices that the sellers want. More importantly, nobody can afford to pay the prices that the sellers want. I've study the demographics of FL very closely (it's the core of my job). About five years ago we were adding 1,000 people per day to the state's population (net of births, deaths, people moving in, and people moving out). About 850 of those were over the age of 50. If you were to control for the recent mass exodus out of Puerto Rico, those numbers would be closer to 750 and 620. However, the retirees that are coming into FL now are less affluent than the retirees we had entering the state five years ago.
Think about it this way: for a given group of 1,000 people, who will likely "retire" first? Those that can afford to. So those "retiring" in their 50s and early 60s tend to be wealthier than those retiring in their late 60s and early 70s. So, as birth years "age" the wealth of new retirees from that birth year tends to decline. A qualifier here: I'm considering a person retired when they move to Florida. I can't tell you how many "3-day" doctors, dentists, and lawyers we have here anymore.
Think about it this way: for a given group of 1,000 people, who will likely "retire" first? Those that can afford to. So those "retiring" in their 50s and early 60s tend to be wealthier than those retiring in their late 60s and early 70s. So, as birth years "age" the wealth of new retirees from that birth year tends to decline. A qualifier here: I'm considering a person retired when they move to Florida. I can't tell you how many "3-day" doctors, dentists, and lawyers we have here anymore.