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The difference in DNF's from IM events vs. Kona
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Okay, my heart goes out to all those that raced IM moo on Sunday. With everything being realative no one could have been mentally preparred for a blast furnace such as that.

That said, I was hanging out at the shop today and we were discussing this and how attrition rates vary from race to race. The conclusion that we sorta came to was that you are more likely to see a high drop out rate at one of the IMNA or other WTC events then you will see at Kona b/c 1) the level of ability and preparation is greater with those going to Kona as well as 2) the expectation of the elements that are to be encountered. Determination is most likely equal in all competitors at both events but those fighting at Kona are in better shape to do the fighting. I also feel that if you have fought the fight before (i.e. your qualifying race) then the kona athlete is more willing to accept the pain involved. I mean 90% of the IMH folks already had to fight tooth and nail just to get to the starting line on Alii, I guess its sort of a survival of the fitest thing.

My apologies if this sounds elitist, just posting some observations/theories on how to explain the extreme drop out numbers on sunday. I wish mother nature had not been so cruel... Moo is a nice race.

36 kona qualifiers 2006-'23 - 3 Kona Podiums - 4 OA IM AG wins - 5 IM AG wins - 18 70.3 AG wins
I ka nana no a 'ike -- by observing, one learns | Kulia i ka nu'u -- strive for excellence
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Re: The difference in DNF's from IM events vs. Kona [aus_tri] [ In reply to ]
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My apologies if this sounds elitist,

No ... it sounds obvious.

Next, someone's gonna say that NBA players try harder in the playoffs than they do in the regular season (or in the Olympics).

For everyone (or most) there ... Kona is the highlight of their year.

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-- Every morning brings opportunity;
Each evening offers judgement. --
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Re: The difference in DNF's from IM events vs. Kona [TripleThreat] [ In reply to ]
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ouch... i was hoping for countering explanations... not attacks... but this is a free forum... except when dan says no so...

in that case how would you explain it?

36 kona qualifiers 2006-'23 - 3 Kona Podiums - 4 OA IM AG wins - 5 IM AG wins - 18 70.3 AG wins
I ka nana no a 'ike -- by observing, one learns | Kulia i ka nu'u -- strive for excellence
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Re: The difference in DNF's from IM events vs. Kona [aus_tri] [ In reply to ]
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me thinks that you've hit the nail on the head.

some IMs have a series of qualifying 1/2 IM races just to get to the starting line, so most athletes have pretty reasonable idea of what to expect, so to would be the case for Kona.



anyway, most would expect " hell " at Kona & prepare accordingly

that thought also leads me to the point of how can the Kona qualifying process not be from exclusively IM races ( I am presuming that some 1/2s still have slots )
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Re: The difference in DNF's from IM events vs. Kona [aus_tri] [ In reply to ]
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Not at all an attack. I'm sorry that's how you took it.

I am agreeing with you. To me, it is obvious. It's just like the climax of any other sport ... you let it all hang out. You play harder, longer, and tougher than you normally would. JOrdan would play all 48 minutes, Randy Johnson would pitch in relief after starting 2 days before, Jack Morris would pitch 10 innings, guys will play hurt, Ronnie Lott will get half of his pinky cut-off rather than sit out .... it's the big time. You see it in all sports.

Kona is simply the biggest race of the year for most IM'ers. Most are there b/c they qualified. They are the best of the best. Even if the talented have a bad day they are not likely to pull out since it's the biggest race of the leason ... and the last race of the season. There's nothing to save the energy for ... they can afford to let it all hang out.

I would think that, even pros, would settle for a "Kona finish", when they'd DNF any other race, and save their energy for the next qualifier.

That's how it seems to me. Again, What I said before was not an attack but possibly tongue-in-cheek.

=======================
-- Every morning brings opportunity;
Each evening offers judgement. --
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Re: The difference in DNF's from IM events vs. Kona [aus_tri] [ In reply to ]
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I completely agree with you. It is probably not the "politically correct" thing to say, but I would say that it makes sense to me. An interesting stat would be not just the overall DNF rate of Hawaii, rather I would be interested in seeing the DNF percentage for lotto winners at Kona in a year with brutal conditions like last year.
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Re: The difference in DNF's from IM events vs. Kona [TripleThreat] [ In reply to ]
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All good no worries man :-)

36 kona qualifiers 2006-'23 - 3 Kona Podiums - 4 OA IM AG wins - 5 IM AG wins - 18 70.3 AG wins
I ka nana no a 'ike -- by observing, one learns | Kulia i ka nu'u -- strive for excellence
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Re: The difference in DNF's from IM events vs. Kona [Flanagan] [ In reply to ]
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It's funny you mention that.... last year Kona had an attrition rate of (guessing here) 15% and when you think about who the folks that make up that 15% are.... it's scary to think about the conditions that went on out there.

36 kona qualifiers 2006-'23 - 3 Kona Podiums - 4 OA IM AG wins - 5 IM AG wins - 18 70.3 AG wins
I ka nana no a 'ike -- by observing, one learns | Kulia i ka nu'u -- strive for excellence
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Re: The difference in DNF's from IM events vs. Kona [aus_tri] [ In reply to ]
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At Kona last year, the attrition rate was about 11%, higher than its usual 6-7% probably based on the high winds that day. I think most pro's now no longer value the "Kona finish" as you describe. The broadcast of the race showed numerous pro's (I particularly remember Simon Lessing, but there were many) who realized they had no shot at the podium and dropped out. I also remember being immensley impressed by Cameron Brown of NZ who gutted it out to the finish even on an off day.

Still, I don't begrudge them. This is their job, and they only have a short opportunity to earn a living from it. If that means dropping out, so be it.

I do hope Cam gets lots of positive race karma for his decision to go on though.

Paul
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Re: The difference in DNF's from IM events vs. Kona [ElGordo] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
At Kona last year, the attrition rate was about 11%, higher than its usual 6-7% probably based on the high winds that day. I think most pro's now no longer value the "Kona finish" as you describe. The broadcast of the race showed numerous pro's (I particularly remember Simon Lessing, but there were many) who realized they had no shot at the podium and dropped out. I also remember being immensley impressed by Cameron Brown of NZ who gutted it out to the finish even on an off day.

Still, I don't begrudge them. This is their job, and they only have a short opportunity to earn a living from it. If that means dropping out, so be it.

I do hope Cam gets lots of positive race karma for his decision to go on though.

Paul


kiwipat

per ardua ad astra
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Re: The difference in DNF's from IM events vs. Kona [aus_tri] [ In reply to ]
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I was a second away from posting almost exactly the same thread last night and backed off. Why I'm not sure.

But here are my thoughts. IMNA tend to attract more "beginner" triathletes on a whole ... that is, people "new" to the sport. IMNA races are also more accessible to the "everyman" as well, thus attracting more "first timers".... many of whom I think are doing an IM as their one "race" for the year. I see more and more people getting into the sport and immediately signing up for an IM in their first year or two. But what I'm not seeing is them doing a lot of other race distances prior to IM ...no sprints, no olympics, no Halfs.

So I think that many people that have problems finishing are the ones least experienced not necessarily the ones who aren't fit.

Kona racers, as a whole, are certainly fit, but I think it's more that they have more experience racing (all distances, but certainly IM's) and thus they know how to better prepare.

That being said, IM WIS was a tough day and anyone who competed and did or did not finish should be commended for giving it their all.

Dennis
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Re: The difference in DNF's from IM events vs. Kona [aus_tri] [ In reply to ]
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First off, I didn't think the 1st poster was attacking you...it was a reasonable example.

From a macro view, I'd agree.

From a micro view, I don't.

We can go through the Moo DNF list name by name and look at their resume. There were "only" 400 1st timers and many well-positioned vets racing. In general, you don't get the same "caliber" athletes at Moo as they are prepping for Kona...as Moo is a qualifer for the next year. Moo is basically a race to prove yourself...which may come with a higher price tag of failure.

Ability and preparation are not mutually exclusive. Neither are attrition and pain.
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Re: The difference in DNF's from IM events vs. Kona [aus_tri] [ In reply to ]
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You definitely get a lot more rookies at IMNA events. A friend of mine just got back from Wisconsin Wednesday and she had an outstanding swim and bike but had all sorts of problems on the run which left her going to the plan C type of race and working to finish instead of DNF (which she did). It was her 4th IM and she won her AG there in 2003 and has done Kona so she is experienced. She told me that she couldn't get over how many people in the race were from Wisconsin. I guess if you're there and can sign up for a local event then it gives you a goal to work for that is within easy travelling distance but with such a large number of locals in the race there must have been quite a few that don't have the experience to get through a really nasty day. A former colleague of mine did LP this past summer as her first ever triathlon and got in just under 16 hours. Rookies like that would probably have had a really tough day last Sunday.
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Re: The difference in DNF's from IM events vs. Kona [aus_tri] [ In reply to ]
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I thought the attrition at Kona 2004 among male pros was around 30%. It was the most unreal thing, after all the hype of Simon Lessing that year, to be grinding up the climbs to Hawi, in the face of plain nasty wind gusts up to 35, seeing Simon and LVL on the side of the road, done. The roads were littered with those that popped or crashed. Lots of folks sitting in T2 looking clearly that they would not start the run. Lots of pros walking. There was nothing that could have prepared me for that combination of heat and winds. It is very demoralizing to ride, mile after mile, at 12-14 MPH, knowing you are knocking out 20+ MPH effort. All you can do is readjust, hunker down and move forward. I disconnected my computer somewhere along the line.
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Re: The difference in DNF's from IM events vs. Kona [aus_tri] [ In reply to ]
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It's true that kona is a total different ball game than alot of people think. so many things to take into consideration on Race day in kona. I'm sure one day i'll find out for sure what it's like. But 1st stop canberra!

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Re: The difference in DNF's from IM events vs. Kona [RA] [ In reply to ]
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I disconnected my computer somewhere along the line.

Awesome! :-)

yeah i know what you mean about seeing the look on fellow competitors faces last year... it was tough. and to see the best in the sport suffer like that. WOW!

36 kona qualifiers 2006-'23 - 3 Kona Podiums - 4 OA IM AG wins - 5 IM AG wins - 18 70.3 AG wins
I ka nana no a 'ike -- by observing, one learns | Kulia i ka nu'u -- strive for excellence
Garmin Glycogen Use App | Garmin Fat Use App
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