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Home > Forum > Triathlon Forum > help me determine a good mary pace...

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help me determine a good mary pace...
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Tri-sg
Jun 7, 05 6:21
Post #1 of 9 (982 views)
I did Seahorse Oly last Sunday. I ran 44:17 for the 10k.

The course was about 70% trail. There were some climbs and stretches of bad footing.

I did a century + 2 mile brick the day before.

Now, what do you guys think is a good goal for a dec mary? I'm not sure how much a trail course will differ from an open 10k. I'm read from previous posts that an Oly 10k and a open 10k will defer about 5-10% depending on fitness?

If I use 5%, I should be about to do about 42:xx for an open-10k. According to Daniels's.....I should be able to run about 3:15 for a mary?

But this calculation doesn't take into account that the Oly 10k was a trail run and I did a 100/2 brick the previous day. And if the prediction is for a 3:15 mary time NOW.....what will be a good target for a mary in December??

Appreciate any inputs. thanks guys.
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Re: help me determine a good mary pace... [Tri-sg] [ In reply to ]
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Jon
Jun 7, 05 6:28
Post #2 of 9 (974 views)
I would not try to set a pace based on your 10K in a triathlon the day after a hard workout.
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Re: help me determine a good mary pace... [Jon] [ In reply to ]
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VM
Jun 7, 05 6:40
Post #3 of 9 (953 views)
Bottom line is that you are not going to figure this out until you run it. Start out at 3:15 pace for the first 16, then see if you can change gears. If not, then you pretty much nailed it, if you can then there is still time to pull back some minutes. If you are running 42's -44's, even in tris, it's not likely you are a 3 flat guy (you have to average 43's for 4+ back to back 10Ks to do that). Most likely you are 3:10-3:15, so start at 3:15.
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Re: help me determine a good mary pace... [VM] [ In reply to ]
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Tri-sg
Jun 7, 05 6:45
Post #4 of 9 (935 views)
Thanks VM.

I know I'm definately not a 3:00 standard right now.....but the Mary will be in December.....

I'm wondering what a good goal will be with about 18-20 weeks of mary training. So far I'm only done LSD running preparing for my IM (CDA), havnt done any strides/speedwork which I intend to incoporate for the mary training.

So if 3:15 is approximately my level now, will/can I get faster with 18 weeks of training???
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Re: help me determine a good mary pace... [Tri-sg] [ In reply to ]
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Trevor S
Jun 7, 05 7:48
Post #5 of 9 (880 views)
In Reply To:
I did Seahorse Oly last Sunday. I ran 44:17 for the 10k.

The course was about 70% trail. There were some climbs and stretches of bad footing.

I did a century + 2 mile brick the day before.

Now, what do you guys think is a good goal for a dec mary? I'm not sure how much a trail course will differ from an open 10k. I'm read from previous posts that an Oly 10k and a open 10k will defer about 5-10% depending on fitness?

If I use 5%, I should be about to do about 42:xx for an open-10k. According to Daniels's.....I should be able to run about 3:15 for a mary?

But this calculation doesn't take into account that the Oly 10k was a trail run and I did a 100/2 brick the previous day. And if the prediction is for a 3:15 mary time NOW.....what will be a good target for a mary in December??

Appreciate any inputs. thanks guys.


Personally, I think you need to run at least one fresh 10K (half marathon is better) to get a good baseline on were you stand today (with respect to running a marathon). Your time will give you an approximate idea how you will do and will also provide you with your starting training paces for you marathon training. The best book around to help you determine training paces and races time goals is Daniel's Running Formula by Jack Daniels. If you don't have it get it. It's well worth it.

Cheers!

Trevor
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Re: help me determine a good mary pace... [Trevor S] [ In reply to ]
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Uncle Phil
Jun 7, 05 8:17
Post #6 of 9 (850 views)
I agree...RACE a half marathon. If you are shooting for a 3:15, it ought to be easy to run a sub 1:33. See how that goes and then adjust accordingly. There are too many variables to base that Seahorse 10k split...who knows how accurate the course was, for example!
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Re: help me determine a good mary pace... [Uncle Phil] [ In reply to ]
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Tri-sg
Jun 7, 05 8:28
Post #7 of 9 (831 views)
Damm....thats right! ahhaha...i didnt even think about the course being short =p

Ok....

I'll take the recommendations and try to find a half mary to race after IMCdA....

:)
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Re: help me determine a good mary pace... [Tri-sg] [ In reply to ]
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Mr tbinmt
Jun 7, 05 8:45
Post #8 of 9 (819 views)
Usually, 10K paces are not good predictors of marathon times. Mileage is a better predictor, in my opinion. For a typical 40-45 minute 10K runner, 40 mile weeks (including 3-4 20 mile long runs) get you to a sub 4-hour no problem, but it probably takes a few 50to 60-mile weeks; 4 or more 22-mile runs, speedwork and tempo runs to get you to 3:15 or faster (in my opinion).

I have run 36 minute 10Ks and a 1:21 half but may never run sub 3 in a marathon (3:04 is my best). After trying 4 times, I realized that it will take 3-4 serious months and many 60-70 mile weeks, which I may or may not commit to someday. Like the others said, run a 1/2 marathon a couple months prior and that will give you a better idea. Add about 30+ sec. per mile and that may be a better estimate. happy training! -TB
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Re: help me determine a good mary pace... [Mr tbinmt] [ In reply to ]
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Trevor S
Jun 7, 05 9:42
Post #9 of 9 (792 views)
In Reply To:
Usually, 10K paces are not good predictors of marathon times. Mileage is a better predictor, in my opinion. For a typical 40-45 minute 10K runner, 40 mile weeks (including 3-4 20 mile long runs) get you to a sub 4-hour no problem, but it probably takes a few 50to 60-mile weeks; 4 or more 22-mile runs, speedwork and tempo runs to get you to 3:15 or faster (in my opinion).

I have run 36 minute 10Ks and a 1:21 half but may never run sub 3 in a marathon (3:04 is my best). After trying 4 times, I realized that it will take 3-4 serious months and many 60-70 mile weeks, which I may or may not commit to someday. Like the others said, run a 1/2 marathon a couple months prior and that will give you a better idea. Add about 30+ sec. per mile and that may be a better estimate. happy training! -TB
I agree. Your 36 min 10 and 1:21 half could put you in the 2:50 ish range. However, it would only be your best time potential (assuming your 10K and 21.1K times were your best effort). I best case prediction assuming all things equal. If you haven't done the marathon miles you wouldn't run that fast.
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