Given the latest events in the race...what are your predictions now, and how do they compare to the pre-race predictions? Mine are below:
Top 5:
1. Lance
2. Basso
3. Ullrich
4. Kloden
5. Mancebo
Some will question my placing for Ullrich...My reasoning is such: Voeckler, while a supremely deserved hero, will drop significantly, opening the way for Ullrich to enter the top 5. He's then definitely going to pass Mancebo given both TTs coming up, who has only a few seconds on Ullrich. The Alps and final week favor Ullrich, making his effort on Alpe d'Huez much closer. I think he takes time from both Kloden and Mancebo on Alpe. And surely he'll top them in the long TT, probably by quite a margin. Allowing him to just barely nip Kloden for the podium. Basso will give up a bit of time to Ullrich in the long TT, but not enough to fall below him. Ullrich will, of course, appear to ride for Kloden in the other stages, but will not lose time. At any rate, Ullrich makes the top 5 given Voeckler's impending fall from the yellow. Once there, Mancebo is a quick knockoff. Definitely 4th. Tactics and the other's races will determine whether he climbs over Kloden or not.
Leipheimer makes top-ten.
The biggest change from my pre-race lineup is the loss of Hamilton. I would have put Basso top 5 if we'd ranked that far. Mayo was top 10, so I guess that's a loss as well.
I never, for a second, doubted Armstrong would win, though. I still don't. Only misfortune can derail him now. One can never discount chance, though!
Top 5:
1. Lance
2. Basso
3. Ullrich
4. Kloden
5. Mancebo
Some will question my placing for Ullrich...My reasoning is such: Voeckler, while a supremely deserved hero, will drop significantly, opening the way for Ullrich to enter the top 5. He's then definitely going to pass Mancebo given both TTs coming up, who has only a few seconds on Ullrich. The Alps and final week favor Ullrich, making his effort on Alpe d'Huez much closer. I think he takes time from both Kloden and Mancebo on Alpe. And surely he'll top them in the long TT, probably by quite a margin. Allowing him to just barely nip Kloden for the podium. Basso will give up a bit of time to Ullrich in the long TT, but not enough to fall below him. Ullrich will, of course, appear to ride for Kloden in the other stages, but will not lose time. At any rate, Ullrich makes the top 5 given Voeckler's impending fall from the yellow. Once there, Mancebo is a quick knockoff. Definitely 4th. Tactics and the other's races will determine whether he climbs over Kloden or not.
Leipheimer makes top-ten.
The biggest change from my pre-race lineup is the loss of Hamilton. I would have put Basso top 5 if we'd ranked that far. Mayo was top 10, so I guess that's a loss as well.
I never, for a second, doubted Armstrong would win, though. I still don't. Only misfortune can derail him now. One can never discount chance, though!