A lot of people would love to see that ticket.

The math on living or dying over a set period of time is going to be very person dependent. The likelihood of a old person dying in the next year will be heavily dependent on the person being healthy the year before. Biden is more healthy, with better access to medical technology/constant supervision/etc. I am not sure how much biden's lifestyle vs. an average 80 year old will play into things. He should be more stressed/over worked.

https://www.ssa.gov/.../STATS/table4c6.html

The math is taken from the above link. If you have 100,000 people born in year 0 - 45,385 are left at 82, and 32,273 are left at 86. That is around 70% of people survived from ages 82->86. (I would assume a lot of unhealthy people didnt make it to 82 - so it is somewhat self correcting).

If you compare that with 92,000 people alive at age 50 v. 90,000 remaining at 54, there is a huge drop off in older peoples chances of surviving the next 4 years. This is probably closely tied to older people not being able to get their "21" in.

The last 6 presidents to die are below. People dont live or stay healthy forever.
1. HW - 94 (had parkinsons starting at around 78)
2. Ford - 93 (suffered strokes starting around 87 years old)
3. Reagan - 93 (had Alzheimer's diagnosed around 83)
4. Nixon 81
5. Johnson - 64 (died in 73)
6. Truman = 88 (died in 72)

I'm curious. Why are women considered so unelectable in the US, especially considering your assessment of "good candidates with good records"? //

Mostly because of the prejeduce that has been hardwired into our collective psyche. We are close, Hillary should have been elected, most people wanted her, but the backlash and hate thrown her way just mobilized the far right to elect a complete clown over her. I think we are ready for a woman president, but not any of the ones out there at the moment, and at this time in our fractured tribes. I would love to be able to elect a woman, but as I see it, they do not crossover enough to get the independent vote to close the deal.


Biden won because he crossed over and got many of the old white vote that votes against people, like the newer category of wont vote for Trump a 2nd time folks. But it also works in reverse, many of those same people wont vote for a woman, or minority, and thus pull the Trump lever. They way I look at candidates is first their electability, and then fill in on how I like their policies afterwards. Does no good voting for a loser that you agree with 100%, rather get the 80% person that can actually have a chance to win...