Not joining you, but if the temps are 50-60c, then I wouldn’t even think about toeing the start line. Did you mean 50-60F?

Focus on those things you have control over. You’ll be awesome!

That's not great in Kelvin either....let's hope Farenheit

Latest forecast: Overcast with rain showers at times throughout day. High 58F. Winds SSE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%. Estimated ~1.2" rain during the day.


That's a little better than was forecasted when I checked this morning. Not the worst weather, but could be a very long day out there.

As the Norwegians say, No such thing as bad weather, just bad clothing

The silver lining is with cloud cover the lows are about 10 degrees warmer than today, not gonna be in the 40s

I'll be there. Gonna be a long day, but it always was gonna be

Forecast the real-feel is 52. and after soaking wet for 10+ hours....
Looooonnnnnnng day indeed....

I am doing full change in T1 and likely T2. Fuck the time LOL

Thankfully our hotel is 2 blocks from the finish and we run right past it 2 or 3 times. Telling her not to come to swim exit or bike turnaround/finish. I don't want my wife to have to be standing out in that crap, she can hole up and stay warm

The full change is the way to go!! For IMCdA in June I did a full change in T2 given the 110 degree heat. It was AWESOME! No chafing, comfortable clothing, and a ridiculous full rim hat!

Good luck to all the racers. I'll be volunteering in transition and wherever else they need me. I'm preparing to be standing around in the cold and rain all day. For those of you from out of town, we had our first significant rain down here in Sacramento and about a foot of snow just up the mountain! It beats heat and smoke. Enjoy the race!

Thanks for volunteering!

And yeah, so happy we're getting the rain. But Monday would have worked out a bit nicer for my schedule.

Too bad no changing tents in transition this year. Might make full clothing swap a bit more challenging than usual. Maybe head to portapotties?

I’m glad Cali is getting some rain they need, but I hate it won’t be ideal conditions. Was really hoping for a drag race.

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Let food be thy medicine...

Beats heat and smoke... Amen to that

Thanks for volunteering

Deck change with a towel

Make sure you have clear lenses for your glasses. As someone who grew up racing bikes in Oregon, you definitely will want something to cover your eyes. Just embrace the suck. I don’t know if it's true or not, but it always felt like rolling resistance was a little better on soaking roads (the traction certainly sucks on turns),
So maybe that will help. The only reason I would change clothes is to get the road grit out of my shorts. Seems like the splashes from your rear wheel always made for a gritty chammy.

I would say keep your tires on the softer side, if they are kind of worn maybe replace them before the race, bring one more tube than you normally would because the chance of getting a flat is a lot higher in the rain, be careful of the areas where the car tires go in the lane because the pavement tends to be smoother and the water pools up there. Allow some extra distance for braking and back off on the corners a bit. Careful of metal stuff like railroad tracks and utility covers, don't cross them with turning or braking force on the bike.

55 and rain for 5 hours is going to mean keeping the heat in your core, dress in layers you can remove, maybe wear a bike jersey with pockets to stuff clothes in if the sun pops out.

I ride a lot in difficult weather and would respect that temperature if it's rainy, given the length of the event.

That’s giving me 2006 Wisconsin flashbacks. Yeah, it sucked. It took me half the night to get warm again.

Funny you mention, just discovered my aero helmet has a snap on clear shield. Posted here about it as I have not used one in rain before. Going to experiment a couple days before

Ride by my house and I'll spray you with the hose to see how it does in the rain!

No changing tents in Coeur d'Alene either so this is exactly what I did. If you are concerned about having a wardrobe malfunction then I suppose you can use the Surf Poncho. LOL. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jv0PVOE9ze4

Don't forget to bring old shoes or socks while waiting around for the swim to start. This was one of the best tips I got before IMLT in 2013 (30 degrees at the start).

That's the ticket. Protip from my running days in Northwest - have a trash bag with the holes for arms and head handy. It makes for an awesome improvised rain top and then it can be easily stowed away in the back pocket.

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Next races on the schedule: none at the moment

Wow. This appears to be no joke. Looks like an Atmospheric River.

"If the forecasts continue to hold and we see storms like the models have been showing, these storms could drop inches of total precipitation vs tenths of an inch like we are seeing with storms this week. The GFS & European models both show up to 5 inches of liquid near the crest over the next 9 days."

https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe


The snow predictions are impressive! The good news is that we'll be skiing on Halloween!!


Looking like a possibility of 45" + of snow by the end of the month.

So almost exactly like Tri-Battle, lol.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

Sort of sounds like Norseman weather. You could maybe get some clothing tips from the photos on the front page

Oh man, that was relatively miserable weather that I had almost forgotten about. I remember getting a big garbage bag from a volunteer to wear after punching out head and arm holes for the run during that 2006 Wisconsin, and was only saved by the silver blankets at the finish line and a quick transfer back to the hotel Hot tub (which was glorious!).

On the bike there was a short downhill with a corner at the bottom and people were wiping out left and right from losing traction on the slick crosswalk paint lines in the turn. In hindsight, it’s great to know that you can survive in less than desirable conditions.

Good luck to everyone this weekend. Here’s hoping for a last minute improvement on the forecast and be careful out there, and if not, maybe you will be able to smile and laugh at your shared suffering when someone brings it up 15 years later in 2036 on this forum!

Another option is wearing a speedo under everything during the race. That way you can change in public.

Put your towels in tied garbage bags you can rip open when needed in T1/T2. The ones in backpacks/drawstring bags/etc. can end up soaked.

Ditto for shoes/clothing.

Basically, buy a box of garbage bags and bring them to the race. White works best so you can sharpie them. Red or green sharpies work best since others will bring black.


If any peeps on the peninsula want to borrow a short-sleeve Gabba jersey (size L), let me know.

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ECMGN Therapy Silicon Valley:
Depression, Neurocognitive problems, Dementias (Testing and Evaluation), Trauma and PTSD, Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI)

I’ll be there! Can’t wait to be an IronPrune at the finish line!

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Level II USAT Coach | Level 3 USAC Coach | NASM-CPT
Team Zoot | Tailwind Trailblazer
I can tell you why you're sick, I just can't write you an Rx

What if you just don’t ever take off your wetsuit, lol

This happened a few years ago, think it was CDA 70.3. The bike got shortened and one of the pros rode in his wetsuit.

I was about to mention that only in triathlon would that weather seem "extreme." It's definitely not fast weather, a wet bike course will require a more conservative approach, but there's no reason to be uncomfortable. 10 extra minutes in transition between the two would be well worth making sure you have everything you need even a dry pair of gloves in your jersey pocket or shoe covers if your toes tend to get cold. Good luck! I was thinking about driving down to take some photographs, but not sure if I want to try and keep lenses dry all day, we'll see....

Really looking forward to seeing the folks who thrive in the colder weather trounce their fair/hot weather competition. On AMERICAN soil.

If that will actually happen, I dunno.

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http://www.fitspeek.com the Fraser Valley's fitness, wellness, and endurance sports podcast

I'm sure many here who raced IMLT in 2013 recall the AG'er cycling in his wetsuit with his IMLT backpack strapped on his back! 35 degrees, cycling at 20mph? Kind of made sense in retrospect. LOL.

Chafing must have been insane unless his wetsuit was 2 sizes too large.

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Next races on the schedule: none at the moment

Ugh, that is a tough forecast! I did IMMT 2016 the year it was pouring rain and very windy for the bike. Miserable! It was my first IM and I was stressing about the weather for days leading up to the race. I was very cold on the bike because I didn't wear a rain jacket/breaker. Just my normal sleeveless racer-back tri-kit. (not smart and I know better living in the north and I'm used to bad weather). I thought I would warm up as I used to bike race in the pouring rain back in the 90s and never wore a jacket. But being older I'll now always wear a jacket if weather calls for rain on an IM bike.

It's going to suck on a rainy bike leg, but you are not doomed. The run for me turned out to be what saved my day. It was cooler and cloudy and I didn't suffer from the heat. Ran a great marathon and got myself onto the "long" podium after a tough swim and bike. So don't give up before you start the race. Just have some warmer gear for the bike. Everyone is in the same boat so just control what you can.

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Death is easy....peaceful. Life is harder.

If it's going to rain this much in the coming days, including race day, does that mean there's a strong chance the swim will be canceled?

Bring light weight weather resistant riding jacket you can also run with if needed.

Hah! I'm hoping some rain will rinse out the e coli!

It wouldn't matter too much time wise. Everyone will flow downstream and finish sub 1hr :-)

Not to dwell on e coli, but this latest map is concerning:

https://waterboards.maps.arcgis.com/...682500.3086%2C102100

Not sure if that link will zoom in to swim location automatically, but e coli readings are in the "red" for most of our time in American river. Not sure what it takes for officials to close the river to swimming. Bummer.

/ sorry about that. now, resume fretting about the wet and cold day....

Well, that is what it is (as is the weather), and I have no doubt there is a go/no go level for the race.

Weird though that historical looks like they were testing weekly, the last test is for 10/5

I was there at IM Moo in 2006 as well….just a bunch of fond memories of an epic day at this point…epic is good as time moves on (not so much when it happens!)

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Randy Christofferson(http://www.rcmioga.blogspot.com

Insert Doubt. Erase Hope. Crush Dreams.

Dont mean to be an a**hole, and Sure you could hope for better weather, but you americans are soft weather - wise!:-)

I know it all about what we’re all used to, but That forecast is my average training day here in norway:-) for me temps would actually be almost on The hot side! My Perfect race-weather would be 50 F and light rain (wind coul back off though- all it does is slow us down:)) on The other hand, Im dead if there is sun and over 65F , That would have me whining!;)

If sun and over 65F is bad, I contest that you are the soft as well.

People are stressing about the weather because it simply ins't in live with what you would expect in NorCal. It won't be anywhere near as cold as Tahoe in 2013 or rainy as Cork in 2019 but people need to vent. It is all fine. Prepare everyone.

Dont mean to be an a**hole, and Sure you could hope for better weather, but you americans are soft weather - wise!:-) //

No kidding, this is what I used to call perfect race weather. In fact, it would not be cold enough for my liking, and I would do the entire race in a trisuit only. There will be some folks that end up with their best times, people like me and you that are water cooled. I remember doing a half ironman in Lake Placid in 48 degrees and pouring rain and wind the entire race. I think I drank on bottle of water and one bottle of coke, and finished stronger than I ever had for that distance, over 10 minute ahead of 2nd place too. The same race on a 90 degree day would have me drinking 5 times as much, and taking 5 times the calories too. go figure..


What was the old saying, horses for courses... Pretty sure Iden will love this, as the Brownlees do too.

I'm sure you're spot on about benefits of cooler temps translating into faster performance. Not arguing that point. But I probably won't find cold rain pelting me on the bike refreshing. And yeah, I think many locals attending this weekend are weather weenies -- me included. It's what you're used to. Cold and rainy around here is a severe winter storm (you should see the driving). I had much thicker blood when I lived in the Northeast.

Whatever the 55-and-rain year was at Wildflower (2004? 2005?) I remember seeing about 1/3 of the rack spaces empty (and I know the race was sold out). Can't imagine bailing on an A-race like that, but some folks make that call.

In the larger picture, NorCal generally has great weather for tris...yet IM keeps having horrible luck doing races here. Tahoe had snow, smoke, etc. unitl they just dropped the race. It's 70 and sunny at 4:00PM as I write this from the Bay Area, but by race day....

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ECMGN Therapy Silicon Valley:
Depression, Neurocognitive problems, Dementias (Testing and Evaluation), Trauma and PTSD, Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI)

I ran enough times in the rain while in the Army that I avoid it as much as I can, purely on the Quality of Life Principle.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

Whatever the 55-and-rain year was at Wildflower (2004? 2005?) I remember seeing about 1/3 of the rack spaces empty (and I know the race was sold out). Can't imagine bailing on an A-race like that, but some folks make that call.

I remember that year, and in the entire history of Wildflower, they had it like that just 3 times. And I have no sympathy at all for those that choose not to race, or did and had horrible days. The other 35 times they had the race, most of the time it was in the 90's and just cooking in all those canyons. If I had to pitch up on those days that I just deplored, then shouldn't we get to gloat and enjoy the perfect 50 degree and raining days??


I suppose I was supposed to be a skier, or some other winter sport athlete. But unfortunately I fell into triathlon, a sport that typically races in 90+ degree weather. I always enjoyed going to other countries, many of those races would be in inclement weather, but the folks that raced there were also quite used to it and tough guys..

By any chance was that 1984 at Lake Placid?

By any chance was that 1984 at Lake Placid? //

Kind of fuzzy on the year, could have been 82/83/ or 84 I suppose. The course was a mile+ swim/ 50 mile bike/ and 11 mile run if that helps you date it. It was the day I realized that I was fine to go long distances, and I thrived in extreme cold and wet. Unfortunately for me, in the next 700 races I did, only a handful repeated those conditions. I also was not privy to all the knowledge about heat racing that is available today, that would have made a huge difference for me.


I know I started going there in 82, they hired me to do a talk at the olympic training center, and I did a bunch of those Monday nite sprint races. Just dont recall the first time that they had that long distance race, do you remember the first one there?

Is did a google search. It may have been 1985. Scroll down to your post about it here back in 2013

https://forum.slowtwitch.com/...3F_P4391499/?page=-1




I remember the race. Wore a speedo no shirt. Last thing I remember is getting off the bike in T2

Next thing I know I wake up in the car 4 hours later with my sister in law driving back to Rochester. I ask her what happened

She said I refused to put on my running shoes and was swearing at the volunteers for doing a bad job of cutting the oranges lol.

She had to put me in the car and load all of my equipment herself.

Mist have gotten hypothermia

Too bad for you. As you say if triathlons were a winter event things would have been much different for you

Is did a google search. It may have been 1985. Scroll down to your post about it here back in 2013 //

It was someone else that mentioned it was maybe 1985, but now that I think about it, pretty sure it was either 82/83. I met a girl there in the bar at the pot luck after one of the Monday nite races, and I moved her out to CA to live with me for several years. That was 1983 when I flew out and drove her cross country, so had to be that year or the one before. I wish someone had saved the old paper results of those races, or even remembers who the RD's were. All I remember is that it was sponsored by a local gym, forget the name though. Snow something(maybe Sun Dog?), maybe someone else can fill in that blank? And there was definitely some left over olympic money, they were the ones that paid me to show up and race, and I did a really huge talk at the then new olympic training center.


Pretty funny now that you totally blacked out and have no memory of the end of your day there. I won the race, so dont have any excuse like that for my failed memory. I feel like Al Bundy's daughter sometimes, the episode where she could retail all this knowledge, but for every new bit she learned, an old one disappeared. It was a game show and the final question was who was it that scored 4 touchdowns in their final high school football game for the win, and she missed it!!! You Married with Children fans will appreciate that irony...

Monty from what I recall it was the Casio Olympic Triathlon in Lake Placid. I never did it but lived in nearby Montreal and was just starting in the sport in 1985, but you knew all the local races that were going on in Vermont, Upstate NY, New Hampshire, Quebec, and Ontario because there was barely 1 race per weekend (maybe 2) spread over the region, so everyone got to know of the ones in driving range....no internet, just word of mouth or flyers on a race in Lake Placid that one of the guys would bring back from Burlington....and there was the race calendar listing in Triathlon magazine that all RD's would get listed in.

Lol. Al Bundy for the win.

:).

I did Louisville IM in 2018.

The temperature at the start was below 50f, and because of weather delays we were on the dock for about 2 hours. The swim was shortened (they couldn't close the dam because of rain) so very fast muddy downhill swim, god help you if you missed the exit ramp. T1 was 17 minutes, included a quick trip to the Jonny. It was raining so when a volunteer offered me sunscreen it made my day. Laughed for a while. The bike was nasty. I had tights on two layers with a long sleeve, still wasn't enough and stopped to put on a vey light jacket I had stuffed in a pocket Thank heaven) got the wind off. Before that I was cramping and starting to shiver. According to the finishing information, 500 didn't finish the bike. My food bottle solidified, so I never got the nutrition out. Chucked it and ate the course crap. T2 was 22 minutes, there was a heater in the change tent). The run ( a lot of walk in that run) was just about as nasty as the bike, except no 30k wind. Kept the jacket on for that as well.

Dress right and keep laughing.

Are we reading that you Kona qualified with 39 minutes of transitions? That's a downriver swim split for Jan!!!

I wasn't going to mention that.

Congrats on Louisville! I was looking at the times for that year and most people had some big transition times, especially in T1.

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Death is easy....peaceful. Life is harder.

Haha spot on. When it comes to heat, I’m soft :-) (or, I will melt away, if you will). That said, I will not whine The conditions are unpleasant, I’ll just be naturally sloooow:)

As Monty sais - everyone is different. I come from a cool environmemt, and am fairly «lagre» in tri-standards - 77-79kg (iow i generate lots of heat!) and have found I can do an IM bike in only tri-suit down to like 7-8 C, Even in rain. 10 C is Perfect for me - I’ll performe relatively better vs my competition anywhere below 10-12C. Above that, my performance simply goes down. Got lots of solid evidence of that in my training-log:)

As for The forwcasted weather - Iden should love it yea (though, being light is no advantage in The wind)

Supposedly they have a contingency plan to move to a lake.

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IG -frebay | Strava

Move to a lake? Can you elaborate? Closest I can think of would be Nibmus flat -- but that's nowhere close to race site.

Vapor Trail wrote:

Move to a lake? Can you elaborate? Closest I can think of would be Nibmus flat -- but that's nowhere close to race site.

No clue but someone said it might be Lake Natoma.

Someone from IMCA said:
EVERY Ironman race has swim contingency plans in place months ahead of time for alternate distances / conditions/ time frames and so on
EVERY Ironman has water testing and there are water quality standards in place set by local authorities - the testing and decision is taken out of IM hands for that. (I have announced races where swims have been cancelled for water quality so it s good its good, if its 💩, then there are limits.

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IG -frebay | Strava

Thanks

I am betting on swim will be cancelled due to the rain.
Speed of Sac river is very fast w/o any rain in 10 months, by Sunday morning, the water speed will be scary. No one can swim in that monster...Planning on a rolling bike start at this point.

We have reached new levels of speculation

"I am betting on swim will be cancelled due to the rain.
Speed of Sac river is very fast w/o any rain in 10 months, by Sunday morning, the water speed will be scary. No one can swim in that monster...Planning on a rolling bike start at this point."

• 212 (or close to it) without measurable rain (until last Sunday night)
• It's not only the speed of the water but the amount of debris that could be washed from shores and flowing downstream. Fingers crossed that this won't be the case because I am looking forward to watching the swim! Springtime is when we see a ton of debris, logs, branches, and other weird stuff in the lake after a few dry years. We can't even OWS without concern for bonking heads into a random log.

I was going to mention IMMT 2016, it was quite cold after the storm that whipped up during the swim. I used a plastic grocery bag under my skin suit. I may have kept it on the whole ride, can't remember now. I don't recall having any issues but a friend of my dropped out halfway through the run, just couldn't keep warm. I looked back and my Garmin said 61 degrees.

I did a 70.3 in 45 degree weather that got up to 50 at the end of the bike. I couldn't get my aero bottle out of the cage due to the lack of grip because my hands were so cold. It was so hard to get the bottle out I waited until I was at the top of a hill to try one last time thinking at least I would be going slow if I dropped it. Switched to on course gels for the last half of the bike. Gloves would have been prudent. A different friend in 2016 IMMT got a pair of latex gloves at the med tent on course, made a huge difference. My plan is to stash a pair in my suit if the weather is borderline.

Curious with those winds if they shorten the bike course (its two loops).

I have ridden the course in 10-15 mph and it was doable if not just attentive riding, I was not on deep rims but most will be on race day. But at 20+ sustained with gusts up to 45mph, I think we are getting close to careless. Triathletes are not known for their bike handling skills let alone, say a 120 lbs participant hits a 45 mph gust and my bet is they go down.

On the flip side, when that same smaller athlete is going down wind at say 25mph-30mph with .5 to 1" of rain on the roads, it could spell problems as well.

Curious with those winds if they shorten the bike course (its two loops). //

I hope they do not shorten any of the courses, or cancel them. The weather is all part of racing, if it goes south for your abilities, then you adjust. If you are not comfortable in big winds, put on your training wheels. If it is too cold for you, then put on more clothes. IF the water is choppy, then slow down, take it easy, and sight more often. They don't shorten races when it is 110 outside, dont see any reason to do it when it is the opposite. In the end, people can just choose not to race if the day is not to their liking, but for sure, there are many that will revel in the conditions that the day provides, whatever direction they go....

Yes I get it Monty, I am in great shape, experienced and feel this is within my abilities. But sadly I am not sure other people are that self aware or know what its like. If I told most hey its going to be windy Sunday, most will just nod not really know. Their heads have been down for so long they are doing this come hell or high water. But when I say its going to be windy AF, 25+ again they have no perspective or experience of what they are getting themselves into.

So where do you draw the line of you should know better of what it might look like out there. I am also mindful how how big the participant list is perhaps only impacting the above to the worse. How Laisessez fiare do you let it go?

For those stressing: the most recent water quality readings are acceptable. https://waterboards.maps.arcgis.com/...682500.3086%2C102100

20-30mph average winds are very common in that stretch of Yolo County so I can't see them shortening the course. The route is actually really good by Yolo standards - about 75% of the course has hedge rows and trees acting as wind breaks. It is only the southernmost section of the course that is fully exposed to the wind. Thankfully that whole section of road is closed for the race so unsteady riders have lots of room to wobble and swerve.

You have the race come hell or high water, and those that did not prepare, or overestimated, or just were plain stupid, can just quit when it gets too hard for them. That is the option that many forget is still always present, you can just stop. But dont make anyone else have to stop because you could not handle the day, they should get their shot that they trained for and are ready to tackle..

I've heard latex dish gloves are a good trick to keeping hands warm. I know a woman who put a shower cap over her bike helmet when IM Boulder was cold one year (I think she won her AG too). Once I drove off our mountain to do a long 5-6 hr training ride. It was early in the morning and still cold. I forgot my vest but found a plastic bag in the back seat. Used that under my bike jersey and it worked well. I definitely wasn't as cold as I could have been!

IMMT 2016 was a rough day for sure. The storm was coming in while walking down to the swim start. Wasn't raining yet but I couldn't believe the waves/swells on Lac Tremblant. That was a crazy swim for me. One friend was fast and started much earlier than myself and didn't think it was bad. But others thought it was quite a rough swim. Started raining 10 miles into the bike for me. After I got my special needs I wasn't sure how I'd stay warm on the second loop but I got through it. A friend of mine who is thinner than myself (and I'm lean) got pulled from the course for hypothermia at special needs. Her lips were turning blue. It was raining lightly when I started the run and felt a tad warmer. I was so happy and relieved to start the run. It eventually stopped raining or just an off and on drizzle. Some complaints about humidity but wasn't that bad (did the IMMT 70.3 several weeks earlier and it was 85F and humid. Felt like 90F!).

What doesn't kill ya right? :-)

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Death is easy....peaceful. Life is harder.

Interesting debate here. I reflect back to standing on the beach in 2014 just minutes from starting Ironman Lake Tahoe only to hear the announcement that the race has been canceled. As upsetting as it was it was the right decision at the time. The smoke from the King fire would have probably killed people if that decision hadn't been made.

If they are that afraid of wind then heaven for bid they ever qualify for Kona. There’s a reason Dave Scott used to live up there and train for Kona.

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clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com

Stop whining about the weather. (not directed at anyone in particular...) Only worry about things you can control.
Extreme weather racing gives you mad street cred when you are done. Just think about the bragging rights earned by Boston Marathon 2018 or IMCdA 2021 finishers.

I am with Monty on this. Unless there is a true safety risk or the emergency services are needed for other true emergencies due to the weather, let us ride the whole course as intended. I think WTC pulls the trigger late but too easily on shortening courses and that just devalues the experience imo. I suppose this happens when events become more mainstream and you have a ton of fair weather athletes.

Conditions might be Ok now, lots of encampments on the river, especially Discovery Park. Hopefully, the rain doesn’t increase the E. coli count.

From today's athlete meeting:

Due to low light, the pro swim start has moved to 7am. Age Group rolling start begins at 7:03. Due to low air & water temperatures, wetsuits will be mandatory. Head & feet booties will be allowed. There is a shallow stretch of river shortly after the start - do not stand or walk here due to underwater debris which can cut your feet.

There will be a (heated) changing tent in the transition area. There will also be idling buses at various aid stations on the bike & run routes where you can stop and warm up. Aid stations will also have bags for improvised poncho's.

3 of the run aid stations will have (warm) chicken broth.




Oh the rain absolutely will increase the E coli levels (the regional park website even says not to enter the water after rainstorms), but Sacramento County & Central Valley Water Board won't test again until after the race. So, for this weekend, the beaches & river are all officially open: https://regionalparks.saccounty.net/...ages/ParkStatus.aspx

.
.
I really hope everyone there follows this advice. Triathletes seem to be really stubborn when it comes to dressing for bad/cold conditions during Ironman's. I fear a lot of people will DNF for just being plain silly.
.
.

Thanks for update.

Transition zone tents -- single coed tent or the usual arrangement?

Forecast change to 2.45 inch during the day and 1.16 at night.
I

Will the rain make the water cleaner or increase the chances of a lake swim?

Rain usually leads to increase in e coli. Based on post above from OddI0t, water was found suitable during last testing and it won't be tested again before race. So unless there are last second changes that force cancelling the swim, like floating debri, swim is on. I still have no idea where they would change to a lake swim that is anywhere close to transition. That doesn't seem realistic.

That is a lot of rain.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

Wunderground has a flood advisory through Monday.

Not a fan of rain on the bike but would love those temps for any triathlon run!

Separate tents. So that everyone can go “full Monty” (from the 11am briefing today). Nothing else is new apart from that; chicken broth and buses to keep warm on the course. Ah, and swim start pushed by 10min, bike gear drop is done at the same time as bike drop now.
Pro panel. Iden didn’t show up. Reid took his place.
Frodeno saying he’s changing shoes for something with more cushion, because the cold will make it harder on the legs. Sanders’ advice being “no idea man I finished the tri battle hypothermic much...take more calories”.

Feels like the weather is going to make the pro race less interesting than it otherwise would have been. Like Boston 2018 or something.

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Dimond Bikes Superfan

Actually not sure. The tri battle conditions were close to that, not as bad that’s true, but quite bad. And Sanders had his best IM ever (with a record friendly course). But no risks of overheating or heat stroke. Pros go so fast that the cold is less of an issue for them, than for us mortal AGers, relatively speaking. Couldn’t those conditions put Gustav and Lionel closer to Jan? It may help them somehow, just like it will gently destroy me :)

Unless its cold enough, and you're going fast enough... :) I learned about wind chill factor the hard way a few decades ago during a mid-December reverse sprint...

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"I'm thinking of a number between 1 and 10, and I don't know why!"

If I am a pro, I would not be thrilled. The two lap course is going to have the pro's riding through a majority of wobbly age groupers in 25 mph winds. The speed/handling difference is going to stark. If I am Jan/Lionel and my collar bone needs to stay in one piece to keep the $$ rolling in I would think twice.

Lionel went fast, but if it had been 5 degrees warmer and dry he’d have gone a lot faster. He would have done Jan’s time and Jan would have been 5-7 minutes faster.

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Let food be thy medicine...

2-3 inches of rain expected Sunday plus a wind advisory (45mph gusts expected)

First, for clarification, the water readings on this site, https://waterboards.maps.arcgis.com/...appviewer/index.html, are from BEFORE the recent storms. Even without the homeless population by the river in Discovery Park, the e. coli levels would be much higher. With the nearby homeless encampments, they are certainly much higher. For reference, I have done IM New York which had a sewage leak which was just at the acceptable level, https://www.nytimes.com/...ns-ironman-swim.html. This was still a disgusting swim. And who knows about the debris from the storm?

Second, there is no lake that is remotely close without moving transition which would be next to impossible at this point. The swim should have probably been in Lake Natomas from the start.

Third, according to his LinkedIn Bio, https://www.linkedin.com/in/dave-reid-64a1a8166/, Dave Reid, the race of director IM California was the race director of IM Tahoe which was canceled the morning of due to smoke from forest fires, https://www.rgj.com/...e-race-day/15849023/. Smoke from fires is extremely predictable so it was obviously hope over practically that they waited to the last minute to cancel. Consequently, I worry that we will have the same scenario again.

I worry about a lot of stuff. One of them isn’t what the RD decides to do race morning.

Can’t speak to the E. coli levels but if nothing else the water temp is great. Swam a little this morning and very comfortable for this so cal boy

It’s nice to read something positive about race conditions. Every weather report has been quite depressing. Last reading we’re up for some 45mph winds on Sunday, which, if true, is insane and screams cancellation.

Yeah, that removed one unknown. Also drove the course and with a couple exceptions it’s very good surface. Right now looks like it starts off relatively mellow then kicks up 11 to 12 or so, then drops some. There is a decent amount of tree and hedge coverage on some of the east / west sections but not all, and of course it’s always fun when you come to an opening in the trees….

There is a limit I assume that they would cancel/ shorten/ alter. Don’t know what that is. But it’s also a course you can easily bail on if someone thinks it’s dangerous. For almost all of it it’s literally just turn around and head home

Oh brother, what a wimpy attitude cancel for wind and rain. Haha. Go race people, it’s an Ironman it’s not supposed to be easy. Race and smile! DRAMA

Don’t get me wrong, I’ll race no matter what the conditions are as long as we’re allowed. And in my book, the harder, the better. We agree on that. Ironman isn’t ping pong.

But there’s a limit to “I’m a warrior nothing will stop me”. Otherwise it’s plain stupidity. 45mph with thousands of people on the road is potentially very dangerous. For people who can take it, as much as for others who can’t.

Wind doesn’t pick up until 11-12.
Swim+one loop+full run is very safe.

agree. it looks like typical conditions of Ironman Wales where nobody cries

Raelert remembers Ironman Frankfurt in 2012 where it poured all the way through (well till the last 10-15K on the run)
Listen to the drops on your aero-lid is soothing and comforting :)

Will be interesting to see if Lionel brings a Jan style robe before the start

And how many pros will wear the recommended booties.... I always had trouble getting them off after a cold swim

There are a few comments about encampents contributing to high e coli levels. This seems very improbably unless they are huge encampments. Aren't e coli counts spikes in larger cities typically the result of overflowing sewer mains due to heavy rainfall? How many people would be living in these encampments?

Anyway, unless the counts are ridiculously high, it's unlikely to affect most healthy people. Immunosuppressed or those with open wounds might have issues later, though.

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***

M----n wrote:

There are a few comments about encampents contributing to high e coli levels. This seems very improbably unless they are huge encampments. Aren't e coli counts spikes in larger cities typically the result of overflowing sewer mains due to heavy rainfall? How many people would be living in these encampments?

Local tv news KCRA estimates 500 campsites, but authorities removed something like 5,000 camps throughout 2019 (likely hitting the same campers multiple times). The 2019 point in time count counted 3900 unsheltered throughout Sacramento. That is a lot of poo with no 24 hour toilets

Bike-a-long tour of the area, including the path that makes up the first half of the run:

Guys, Talbot tweeted about the race being 99% likely to get cancelled (in his opinion)
due to the flooding and the resulting current. I do not know if homelessness in Sacramento is that big of a problem right now.

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

He has recanted:



https://tri-today.com/2021/10/99-9-chance-ironman-california-gets-canceled/




Flooding is expected in the region, but the heavy rains aren't expected until later in the day and the flooding certainly won't be on the American or Sacramento River (we're in a drought and have low flows). The flood warnings are for small streams and also for the burn areas elsewhere

Sorry @balang but you are wrong on being able to predict the smoke impact before the day of the event, having lived through many fire seasons it's hard to know if 'tomorrow' will have worse or better air quality let alone a couple days ahead. As a fire grows it sets up it's own microclimate and predicting how much a fire will settle during the night is also pretty much hit or miss.

I think that Dave is doing the best he can with what California throws at him :- )

I'm all packed up and plan on just doing my best to finish, I hope to beat my IMLT 15:+ but in 2013 it was just cold, not rainy or windy. I am excited to see how I do since the weather has blown my A plan away, so much for aero gear on the bike. I just hope I don't burn too many matches into the headwind.

Yes!! And when do you all finish the race it may be one of those that you're talking about for years to come! I still talk about Ironman Lake Tahoe 2013 with the snow the day before and Ironman Coeur d'Alene this past June in the heat that resulted a 28% or so DNF. Nobody really talks about Boulder 2016 or Santa Rosa 2017.

SO go race, suffer, embrace the conditions and have a story to tell for years to come! Most of all be safe and be respectful to other athletes...it could be their first Ironman.

Disc/808 combo nuts or?

Have enve 7/8 also.

What u all think for Sac. Duckman?

Good luck - I'll be right there suffering with you. It'll be my first Ironman and I'm estimating a ~90 min swim, ~20 min T1, 6-7 hour ride, ~10 min T2, and 5-7 hour shuffle/jog. When I first saw how flat the course was, I had hopes for a <14 hour finish, but at this point I'll be happy to finish under cut-off...

Disc isn't nuts, but 808 in the front seems... Bold.

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JustinDoesTriathlon

Owner, FuelRodz Endurance.

Pro bikes:




My hero:

Event Update

Dear 2021 IRONMAN California Athlete,

According to recent reports from the National Weather Service, there is unprecedented severe weather expected in Sacramento and its surrounding areas on Sunday. IRONMAN and local officials have determined that in the best interest of safety for our athletes, volunteers, traffic control personnel and medical staff, it is necessary to make changes to the bike portion of the event. One lap from the bike course will be removed, making the total distance of the bike course 56-miles. Athletes will still complete the full 2.4-mile swim and 26.2-mile run courses. Awards and IRONMAN World Championship slots will continue to be awarded as planned. Based on this change the transition will open at 5:00 a.m. PT. The professional athletes will start at 7:00am. Age group athletes will now start at 7:30 a.m.

IRONMAN Officials are continuing to monitor the situation closely and will communicate any necessary updates to athletes via email, the event Facebook page as well as on the event website.

Such BS. Definitely my last IM...

Why do you find that BS? Are you by yourself? You do understand the storm that is rolling in, right? If you left your bike behind for Monday it may be underwater.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

Because it’s not an Ironman. I get the frustration but understand that athlete’s safety is very important.

I understand weathermen use hyperbolic "storm of the century" rhetoric every few months. I don't think a little extra water when you're already soaked is reason to cancel, especially given the mild 60+ F temperature. I think if it was truly expected to be unsafe, you should cancel. If you're unsure if you'll have volunteers show, leave it up to the participants to decide for themselves whether they want to continue unsupported.

Raley field won't be under water. The reservoirs are all at historic lows so water releases won't be high enough for river flooding. Localized flooding around smaller streams and storm drains? sure. Flash floods possible in the burn areas in the foothills? Absolutely. But not in downtown Sac (especially not within an extra 3 hours).


More that I invested over a year and a considerable amount of money (by my standards) training to complete an Ironman, not ... whatever you want to call this. And now I won't even get to try?

I agree it's BS - they've gone too far in trying to not cancel the race, which would've allowed people to race an Ironman next year without paying $600 extra.

Also, a 2:20 swim cut-off? In a downcurrent swim? WTF? A storm is rolling in... I understand the cut-off was set before people signed up, but it shouldn't've been that long in the first place. How is safety important for a race director who lets people to spend that much time in the water?

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Massive bummer! They are cancelling due to cold weather and rain ? Or homeless people shitting in the water?

RD video update:

PRO Athletes looks to be doing full distance :)

i think it's important to remember that in a situation like this, the question for the race director isn't, "gee, i wonder if that triathlete is hardcore enough to race today?"

evidently there are plenty of hardcore athletes here and i have no doubt that they are smart, fit, and experienced enough to get through bad weather. but that ranks way down low on the list of concerns the RD has.

the questions are more like:
-can i reasonably expect volunteers to stay out in these conditions for 18+ hours?
-how many will bail out?
-what's the minimum number of volunteers i need to safely deliver the race?
-what's the minimum number i need to deliver a fun, memorable event?
-how much am i willing to downgrade the race experience before i think it damages the brand?
-being in the service-delivery business, when do i think it's better to cancel than to deliver an inferior service?
-what kind of extra medical am i going to need on the day?
-given that there's a pandemic and a big storm coming, can i justify drawing more EMS/police services away from the city/region?
-what's my exposure to liability here - for personal injury, or even just people just disappointed with my downgraded experience, etc?
-how much of my own equipment will get damaged/lost in a big storm, and what's that going to cost me?
-for the two questions above, what would the implications be for my insurance in the future?

etc etc etc.

i've put on a few tiny little races in the past, but running a thousand-person ironman is more like putting on a rock concert. it's a massive undertaking. yes, the race is "for" the athletes and the mission is to deliver them a great experience. but it has a lot of moving parts and requires a lot of good will and effort from many quarters. ironman is difficult by definition, and the RDs are not sitting around second-guessing the toughness of the athletes. they're thinking about the above.

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Fantastic news

Exactly. Triathletes are a very selfish lot

Cue the “I’m done with Ironman!” indignation

Some people just don’t think I guess.

I’m very disappointed, would have also preferred to have the option to defer. But it’s the right call, not a “wimpy” one at all.

Last time RD ignored the weather, more than 20 people died. Earlier this year in a 100k trail run in China.

.
.
I can't wait to read the inevitable complaints about the lousy coverage of the race on Facebook Now,during a major weather event, Why are there no choppers in the air? Why don't they have drones following? Why does the feed drop out all the time and of course the usual.why aren't you showing the Female Pro's (during a Male Pro only event)
.

This is a good post, both for this race and generally... thank you.

E

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

But…. It’s also his/her first, so… can you really say that? And given the posts on social media “this isn’t an Ironman” guess it’s not his first or last anything

3/5 ironman?

PyritePerson?

Mike has shared a list of considerations the RD has to take into account. Worth remembering that this will/should be based on the mandatory risk assessment completed long ago, which will include adverse weather conditions as a risk/hazard and mitigating measures. The RD who then ignores that RA does so with considerable jeopardy to them and the race organisation/company; not to mention the competitors (wide spectrum of speeds mean the reduced distance will allow the slowest to be off their bikes before 2pm) and the volunteers around the route, especially in exposed sites.
The MPRO field can be relied on to ride the 180km in less than 5 hours so they will all be running by 1pm which means reducing their distance is a mitigation not needed. Edit to add: I agree @MrTri123; excellent news.

You forgot to mention why aren’t we seeing bib #7640 (if you watched Lionel latest video) you will understand this one ;)

Yes like I said

Fantastic news

What time is the start time... Est

Talbot tweeted 8 minutes ago that the race has been cancelled.
https://twitter.com/TalbotCox/status/1452257544047579138

I Don't trust that

Of course you don't........

They are announcing it live at the stadium. Online posts will most likely follow shortly.

https://twitter.com/TriathleteMag/status/1452263134102790144

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________________________________________________________
Taylor Rogers

2024: IM Hamburg

To you and all volunteers thanks for your service today. I am sure the racers will be perpetually indebted to all of you.

Mike Reilly just did an IG Live saying it’s cancelled

Bummer

Why not doing an indoor event?
Jan vs. Gustav vs. Lionel

#joking

And before everybody starts whining and calling others soft, there are trees down everywhere out on course and in the city, porta potties literally flying through the air...there was no way they could hold this race today. Good call by IM and the RD.

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Jim Manton / ERO Sports

so ... does this turn cozumel into a big huge shootout?

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Sorry to the AG racers.

For the pros, is there an upcoming race they could/would decide to switch too? Everyone was so looking forward to Iden, Frodo, and that Leonard Saunders guy.

IMAZ would be great option. Gives them a few weeks to get in some workouts before a short taper.

So what does that mean for the AG racers?

I realize no race today, but will they get free entry into any race? 2022 Sacramento or certain 2022 races?

In this thread or one of the others someone said Lionel cannot leave USA due to getting his green card recently.

Bummer for all involved.

I think someone mentioned in another thread (or maybe it was earlier in this one) that Lionel can't leave the USA for 6 months as he just received his green card.
I would assume the other Pros will move to Cozumel or maybe Florida or Arizona. I'm sure they will all talk. Gustav will be doing one for sure, as the whole point of this was to see how he holds up at the longer distance. It wouldn't surprise me if Jan just goes home. He has nothing to prove. I could also see Lionel calling a year (for real this time). It all depends how badly he wants to test out his changes on the bike from his testing.
A bummer that today was canceled, but it's the right call. The weather looks nasty and it's just not safe.
Stay safe everyone.

Cheers

Quinner

Ironman could make IM FL a male and female pro race in two weeks…..

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David T-D
http://www.tilburydavis.com

They will most likely get a deferral to IM California 2022. With so many deferrals over the past 2 years I doubt they will get another option as the other races have got to be pretty close to being sold out.

The ........ at the end of your comment makes me think you know something lol.

I wish, merely a suggestion.

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David T-D
http://www.tilburydavis.com

Thanks. I am terribly disappointed that it is canceled, particularly for all of the athletes that trained so hard. I was looking forward to giving back. I can empathize with the disappointment because I too was minutes from entering the water in 2014 when Tahoe got cancelled. Given what's happening it's the right call. The area will need roads open and emergency equipment and personnel available the next few days.

My advice...go find a local race no matter the size and kick ass.

When IMCal was announced I thought there was a chance of race cancellation from seasonal wildfire smoke which has been bad in the last few years around this time, never would have imagined rain/wind cancelling it.

On the positive, California desperately needs rain. Good call from the race organizer and IM.

This guy called it!

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Next races on the schedule: none at the moment

This is incorrect. Permanent residents (green card holders) are allowed to travel at will.


https://www.uscis.gov/forms/explore-my-options/travel-outside-the-us-as-a-permanent-resident

Although I'd actually like to know how he was eligible for a green card in the first place, if he had a permanent work visa it was likely as a P-1A...and usually you move that to an O-1. This goes down some crazy rabbit hole, but is Erin a US citizen? That would be the fastest way to a green card, otherwise we're talking a significant period of time. Granted things "tend" to be different for Canadians since we're neighbors.

BUT, that still would not affect his ability to travel if he actually has a green card.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

Are you suggesting it should have been cancelled last night? If so, I don't understand because the bikes are already at transition or are you suggesting making the call Friday so that the bikes don't even need to be dropped off? It's the right call. It stinks but it's the right call.

I am simply stating that the user balang called this very scenario correctly. I am not in Sac, so hard to tell what's what, but this will likely doom the race long term. Just like his handling of IMLT doomed IMLT.

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Next races on the schedule: none at the moment

Interesting that you mentioned IMTahoe 2014 cancellation. When I found out that 2015 was going to be the last year, I decided to make the trip to Tahoe from Canada whether there was a smoke or snow related cancellation, I was just hoping to do it before it seized to exist. We ended up with a glorious day in 2015, so it was the right call and that was the last time I did an IM.

In Aug of that year, I did IM Whistler on a day around the same temp and hard rain (not quite the Sacramento forecast), and in highsight, I wish they cancelled Whistler 2015 on me, because I should have not raced it, but I could not control my own decision making and went ahead and got the finish (it just was not good for my body and frankly was not worth it). I know many friends dropped out that day, but I was too stubborn to drop out and the weather was not quite bad enough for a cancellation....but the rain was turning to sleet at the top of Callaghan Valley climb and the descent was deathly in the cold with two way rider traffic and barely able to control bars.

Sometimes its better when the race organizer makes the call. Most of us can't make the best decision for ourselves as there is too much invested.

I don't know, I don't think it's indignation, it's just reality. This is the correct call for safety reasons and I totally support it. But here's the thing: this is my fourth full IM registration, and now two of those have been cancelled for weather. I was in Gurye in 2019 when that hurricane blew by on race day. (Forget the covid-related cancellations for now, which are up to 3, it's a different issue). I spend somewhere around three grand after race registration to buy plane tickets, hotel reservations, car rentals, meals, etc. All of that money is just lost.

Look, I really enjoy training. I know IM doesn't control the weather. I suspect they don't really even control the decision to have or not have a race in poor conditions. I bet that ultimately the local authorities make the call; after all, they're the ones on the hook for water search and rescue, emergency rooms, and even "lighter" problems like bad traffic. But IM puts on most of their full distance events in the fall, when weather is at its most volatile. How can I continue to justify this massive expense to my loved ones when at the end of the day the go/no go is subject to a coin flip?

Ironman events are premium, luxury purchases. We are not getting a premium, luxury experience when the weather goes south. As an organization, they really need to make contingency plans. I'm so sick of this. We could have raced yesterday. I'd be to happy to plan a stay in a pleasant location for two weekends to avoid this. Sure, that's an almost unheard of concept for event permitting. But there is some precedent with the holding period for the Eddie Aikau big wave surfing competition in Hawaii. And Ironman is a multi-billion dollar company. They can make this happen.

Big Hawaiian mahalo to all the volunteers who showed up anyway this morning.

Super bad luck dude. Coitus Interuptus. I am with you. I raced 15 Ironman branded races, and never had a cancelation, never really any complaint or bad experience with the Ironman brand.

This is what it is. Weather seems to be worse year after year. And unless we want to race an Indoor / Zwift Ironman, this is what we get.

I have raced in seriously shitty conditions, but I have also been in the water with dead people. Makes you think!

Good luck and "animos" from Spain to all who got cancelled today. There will be another good day and the weather and the race will be just fine!

It’s fine to be disappointed. I am too although getting out of the car this morning hit by a 35 mph gust, I was pretty sure I was gonna start the swim and see what the conditions were like and if unsafe for me I’d call it

Sitting in the changing tent watching the framing rattle in the wind, got the message.

To the indignation point, those are the very vocal internet people that scream they’re “done with Ironman!!!l” at every slight, posted with their finisher pic as the avatar and you just know they are full of it

So you saw those portapotties too huh?

Absolutely the right call

Nailed it on the head. Yet another example of this corporation lacking the foresight and planning to conduct effective communications and contingency planning for inclement weather.

Despite the cancellation of the race, thousands of athletes still travelled to the venue this morning putting themselves at an unnecessary risk.

If I were Ironman, I'd be embarrassed by the video of your reigning world champion, who flew halfway across the world and was going to race with a chest infection, standing in sideways rain at the venue learning about the race being called off.

Yeah, I totally agree. Those are not safe conditions today. I applaud everybody who made the decision to cancel, it's a hard thing to do. I knew a DNS was the smart move, but I put on my wetsuit anyway, freezing cold and ready to go.

I totally get your point about absurd over-the-top indignation. I hope my criticism of IM comes across as more serious and well thought out. It's time for them to take weather contingency seriously. It's likely only going to get worse.

I drove out on the course early and there were trees down all over. Porta potties, signs, etc. in the middle of the road. Then, yeah, as I drive back into the hotel I see a tree down on top of a Jeep (bummer) and porta potties down there, too. Told Lisa the only reason we were driving over to the stadium was to pick up her bike. Lol. I can only imagine what the athlete's village looks like this morning.

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Jim Manton / ERO Sports

I’ve been at races in which the conditions would have been tolerable for 80% of athletes, but were canceled/shortened nonetheless—simply because they worry about the worst swimmer in the crowd. That’s always frustrating, because the sport is supposed to be hard and the weakest athletes should be self-responsible for deciding when not to race. I blame IM on those days.

This looks a day when cancellation was a no-brainer, so not the day to take aim at IM.

Having put so much focus and effort into preparing for this one event I'm obviously disappointed, but cancelling was the right call vs allowing 3,000 people to swim & ride with downed limbs everywhere. My hat is off to all the volunteers - many of whom are still out there now...

I'm very glad they didn't proceed with a truncated event - that would have been the worst of the bad options.

Yeah there is plenty to criticize IM. I get why they wait but not a fan of it when as here all the weather sources pinpointed this to the hour. Smoke is another issue that has to wait until race day.

I was actually really warm in my wetsuit, hoodie and parka :)

And yeah, weather has changed too. Welcome to racing in the new climate change regime

I first heard that just the swim was gonna be canceled and I was already out. Not gonna do a 56/26.2 brick today

Oh wow you saw more than I. Nice seeing you and meeting Lisa

How practical would it be for IM to apply for permits for Sat and Sun, and then 1-2 weeks out they would settle on an “official” day, weather dependent? Have the race planned for one day, but if there is severe weather on the horizon, you have a backup plan secured. This would not be “well Saturday looks like it’s a little better temp so let’s do it then instead.” It would be reserved for truly dangerous circumstances like this.

I drove out on the course early and there were trees down all over. Porta potties, signs, etc. in the middle of the road. Then, yeah, as I drive back into the hotel I see a tree down on top of a Jeep (bummer) and porta potties down there, too. Told Lisa the only reason we were driving over to the stadium was to pick up her bike. Lol. I can only imagine what the athlete's village looks like this morning.


Thanks, Jim for this.

Here's the other thing that rarely get's talked about on days like this - the volunteers. What about their situation and safety, and the fact that of say, 3000 volunteers (typical for an IM races), a good number of these will get up in the morning, look out the window, and decide they are not going, or guess that the race will be cancelled. So as an RD when you are most in need of Volunteers, you are down perhaps 25% - 30%.

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Impossible. Volunteers, permits, business closures, and on and on

Plus two weeks ago this wasn’t even close to predicted. This developed in the last 5 or so days

Dev you are spot on. I would have done the same today. Thankfully, that decision was made for me. Yesterday the weather made it doable...today not so much. Live to race another day!

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http://www.fuelforendurance.com

This thread was started Oct 18th with predictions for bad weather. Of course weather can change over the course of 2 weeks. But the forecast was out there, and it was certainly out there for longer than the last 5 days.

Not to this degree. They’re getting top 5 or 7 inches ever recorded. 45 mph gusts. Absolutely not forecast like this. Been following the available weather every day.

That’s irrelevant tho. You cannot ask a city and volunteers to “set aside” two full days and we’ll tell you later.

Every model prior to yesterday afternoon had 2 inches of rain, which is a lot. Well yesterday afternoon all those models went to 5-6 inches of rain in central Sacramento. I don't know how to explain this...but an inch of rain in a 12 hour period is considered a lot, two inches a lot. I've never been in 6 inches of rain, that's more like a hurricane.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

I have been through it living in the New Orleans area. It’s a lot of rain and the cancellation was the right thing to do. If todays forecast looked sketchy 2 weeks ago, then deciding then to move the race up a day would have allowed the race to go on.

That’s something I don’t understand. Yesterday afternoon the forecast was already 5 to 7 inches of rain, 45mph winds. How could Ironman think a race was possible? Wishing the storm would decide to turn around last minute? In their message they say conditions worsened overnight, but yesterday’s predicted conditions were already screaming race cancelation.
Agree with an earlier comment; IM race is a premium event...until difficult decisions have to be made. Same thing happened at 70.3 New Orleans several years ago; it was a typhoon or something like that heading to the course, yet race was only cancelled at 7am. I’m sure there’s a reason other than wishful thinking, I just don’t know what it is.

I think like everything they pushed the decision to the very end, in part because a Force Majeure clause decision in a contract requires Force Majeure. So you can't pull the plug until local authorities tell you it's done. Based on when they made the decision to cut the amateur race bike to one lap that was based on the majority of the weather system doing it's dump in the afternoon. Pro Race was still going to be the full course. But that clearly changed overnight, saw a video from transition this morning at 6AM...let's just say it was a lot of rain.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

I read this October 13th but didn't want to be the negative nelly. This was forecasted even before this thread started. That said, weather can be unpredictable. Usually this time of year is absolutely gorgeous. Right now it is literally raining sheets outside my window! Maybe I would trail run in this but certainly not swim or cycle! NFL fans may see just how bad it is tonight for SNF (Colts vs. Santa Clara Niners).

https://www.sfgate.com/weather/article/storm-Northern-California-rain-end-wildfire-season-16529674.php

Several days before the weekend I was seeing articles in my newsfeed announcing a "bomb cyclone" in the Northwest and Northern California. (WTF is a bomb cyclone??) And I am on the east coast so it was considered a major weather event for it to pop up on my phone. Sometimes the media is a bit dramatic but in this case it sounds like IM made the right call. I am so sorry for everyone effected. What a huge bummer. I hope athletes effected will get free entry in to next year's event or another IM. They already lost so much $ in travel/accommodations.

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Death is easy....peaceful. Life is harder.

Oh ok, thanks, that would definitely explain it if it’s contract related.

I noticed a number of pro bikes were missing from transition early this morning. Frodeno’s looked lonely there (if not for the volunteer guarding it!). I guess some of them knew?

The rain at that point was manageable, mostly. My Flo wheels have a LOT of water in them from just a few hours rain

The wind gusts were something else. And that was protected in town. Much of the course is exposed farmland. You should see some photos of downed trees on the course.

No way is it impossible, just unprecedented (but again, look at the Eddie on Oahu's North Shore, which draws top surfers from the entire world and thousands of spectators when conditions are right) . In fact, I think it might be a requirement in the future. Cancelled races are bad experiences for racers and - I'm guessing - pretty financially devastating for the company. How many can they cancel before they're forced to innovate?

I think like everything they pushed the decision to the very end, in part because a Force Majeure clause decision in a contract requires Force Majeure. So you can't pull the plug until local authorities tell you it's done. Based on when they made the decision to cut the amateur race bike to one lap that was based on the majority of the weather system doing it's dump in the afternoon. Pro Race was still going to be the full course. But that clearly changed overnight, saw a video from transition this morning at 6AM...let's just say it was a lot of rain.


Heavy rain. Cool to cold temperatures, and high winds - Pick two and you may be good to go. All three at the same time - forget it!

There is something in the DNA of Race Directors - they are always wanting to put the race on. Coming up with plan after plan to make it happen. The really good ones have contingency plans reafy to g for various scenerios.

I once Announced at an Olympic Distance Triathlon where when we showed up in the morning it was monsoon like rain and high winds - fortunately it was reasonably warm 18C - 19C degrees. First they cancelled the swim because of the waves - it was crazy rough. Then they decided to cancel the bike - flooding on parts of the bike course. And then, they had me Announce if any one wants to we will hold a 5km running race - which they did and for the several hundred who hung around - that's what they did!

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

a surf event doesn't involve closing 112+26 miles of road with thousands of volunteers

its a huge endeavor

Everyone's like "why did they wait till race morning"

Well if they did it five days ago, you'd see just as many posts going on about "how can the cancel so early? Why not wait until race day to see if the forecast if correct?"

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

doesn't the eddie have something like 2 dozen competitors? paddling in on one break? different altogether.

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https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Has he been granted his GC or as he just applied? The travel rules could be different in the time frame between applying for the green card and it being granted.

Dave Ried is a great race director. He managed Vineman when it became IM Santa Rosa and created several contingency plans for Santa Rosa's difficulties. The final year it ran, the lake was way too foggy to even get kayaks/support out there, so they had already informed us of the A, B, C plan even before race weekend started. We ended up with plan B - time trial start. That was one of the first races to do that kind of contingency planning with very clear communication with athletes. Santa Rosa ultimately had some bad luck years with the wildfires which devastated the town and was cause for not hosting Ironman racing back there. (They just didn't have the infrastructure rebuilt yet and determined that they wouldn't for a couple of years.)

Dave's leadership didn't doom IMLT either. Given that Ironman needs to create a conversation with locals, this was the job of corporate to smooth the way with the community. This wasn't on Dave.

So, let's back up a bit and not pile onto Dave for today's cancellation. It was weather. Unavoidable and catastrophic weather. And, if you didn't see the photos he was posting earlier this morning, there are downed trees everywhere.

Definitely not piling up on Dave. In fact, if anything, kudos to him for making an unprecedented move to cancel IMLT for the sake of everyone's health. Obviously, the only right decision today also, but this one was... Well, obvious for days coming.

Are you saying Santa Rosa is gone because the town can't support the tourists? Is that really the case? I thought it's because they don't *want* Ironman there. Tubbs fire was in 2017 and there were still 2 full IM races there since then...

I was hired as a photographer for today’s race, and I will add my two cents in to state definitively that canceling was a no brainer decision.

I’m writing this from a pit stop in Fairfield on the way home because driving on the freeway is a harrowing experience right now.

Leaving Sac at around 8:30am there were piles of leaves and tree branches everywhere, some deep puddles, and heavy gusts of wind. The river was also filled with quite a lot of detritus floating downstream.

Instead of ticking off a few blowhard athletes, with at least five inches of rainfall predicted on top of current “atmospheric river” conditions, forging ahead with the race could have resulted in irreparable damage to life, limb, property, and ultimately destroyed the reputation of the Ironman organization and brand.

Total no brainer to cancel.

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Aeromon (Aerobic Monster) - Pokomon's evil endurance junkie twin

Sure, it's different. Of course it's different. But have you seen the impact the event has on the area? Roads are closed for miles. There are thousands of spectators on a densely populated island trying to get a view of one small beach. The point is not that the two events are exactly the same, but that they are similar enough to provide some roadmap for this to happen. And Kona is now going to race over three days in 2022. So you can't tell me this can't happen, it already is.

I’m not implying to close roads for the entire weekend.

“Race date is Sunday October 24th! There is a backup contingency date ID Saturday October 23rd. If there are possible weather events that we are worried about on the 24th, we will move the date to the 23rd, with no less than 10 days notice.”

Or whatever notice is practical. Athletes will complain about their flights or accommodations or whatever, but I bet the ones going home today would have gladly taken yesterday racing in exchange. You’re not asking businesses or roads to be closed for 2 days. It’ll be 1 day still, but there’s like a 5% chance the day might get changed a week in advance. What major implications does that have on a business? Especially if you let them know well in advance that there is a race day and a contingency race day to be prepared for.

So, let's back up a bit and not pile onto Dave for today's cancellation//

Seems like most everyone here is of the mind it was a righteous cancellation, where is this pile that is on top of Dave? Seems like the "pile" is on Dave's side..

No one said anything about canceling 5 days ago. Rather when the forecast was bad enough for almost everyone to agree. So, as in yesterday morning. Allowing to save everyone a lot of trouble, and money.

But this has certainly happened before and there were many complaints on this board about cancelling too soon

People there know better than those at home on their devices.

A cancellation sucks.

I do wonder if jan and sanders and iden might move their side bet down the road to Oceanside?

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I doubt any of them go to Oceanside.
The whole point of Gustav's training was to see how he faired in a full distance IM. He knows he can dominate the 70.3 fields. He has no idea how his body will hold up at the full distance.
Lionel wants to see how he runs after a harder bike and also wants to see how the changes he has made on the bike at the velodrome sessions effects him.
Frodo has nothing to prove to anyone and might just go back home to his beautiful family and spend the winter chatting with us on Zwift.
I think Arizona might be the logical choice here for all 3. I'm sure they have a group chat going to discuss each others plans, but they will also be consulting with their families, coaches and advisors.

There was clearly no choice but to call off the event today.

All of us registered for this year have emails announcing early registration for IMCA 2022 starts tomorrow. I hope we hear about deferrals before registration is open to general population.

Bummed for you and everyone else that the race was canceled.

The Eddie or any of the WSL events with waiting periods aren't good comparisons for IM for a lot of reasons -- the location/water use, the safety crew for those events, the participants, the nature of the sport, etc.

If there was a location that could have a largely contained race (maybe similar to Samorin?) it could be an interesting idea catering to people interested in a premium (cost) event with almost no chance of being canceled. I can imagine there would be lots of posts about how to taper for an event that may happen in x +/- y days.

Each canceled race is terrible for the participants (I know), but I wonder what the overall odds are that a single event gets canceled (for weather, not pandemic) when you look at all the races IM puts on across a year.

Looks like Gustav is heading to Panama City, he just posted on IG “Let’s try again” with tickets booked. Perhaps Ironman has already moved the Men Pro to IMFL.

IMO Lionel will also do IMFL to test the changes he made on the bike mentioned in his videos, likely will wait 72 hours to do any sort of announcement.

Jan really doubt he will show at Ironman Florida. My guess the only reason he was at Ironman California was to have a crack at the Ironman distance record… but who knows maybe he will surprise us and show up!

Well, now that I'm stuck here until Tuesday anyway, who has good recs for rainy day activities in Sacramento? The railroad museum only took 30 minutes. There's got to be something better to do than finish my novel and run in the rain ;)

LOL these days something will happen on all potential days and people - entitled triathletes- will whine “why did you charge me extra and then cancel??”

This happens how many times every season? Like clockwork. Damned if they do, damned if they don’t.

Go get pizza from Slim & Husky’s.

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clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com

The Kings are playing the Warriors tonight at the Golden1 Arena. I’m not a basketball fan, but I had the pleasure of attending a Kings game there a few seasons ago and it is a top notch venue.

For tomorrow, tours of the Capitol are decent.

Otherwise, where are you flying out of? Maybe take a day trip to Napa or Sonoma. Or if we’re not all escaping on arks, hiking in the Marin Headlands or Muir Woods is nice.

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Aeromon (Aerobic Monster) - Pokomon's evil endurance junkie twin

Ok, this will be my last post on this topic, promise.

I'm not sure how many events IM puts on - a couple hundred including 70.3? No doubt the cancellation rate is low, but it's happened to me 2x in 2 years, so it's a very real threat to me, and it's a threat that very well may keep me from signing up for more races. I don't want to go through this again, it's just a monumental waste of money.

Maybe the rate of events impacted by weather - and forced to shorten the course and/or cancel legs - is a bit higher. I would be disappointed to have a short course in an IM event, enough so that I've resisted doing another east coast race during hurricane season.

If not having contingency plans starts to hurt the bottom line, no doubt IM will figure out how to make it work.

Jan can still crack the IM world record. Isn't IMFL also flat?

Jan still needs to validate for a Kona 2022 slot, No? Maybe St. G will count for that?

Not sure if you are aware or not, but IMFL is a very flat and fast course. Why would he not be able to break the record there?

"No doubt the cancellation rate is low, but it's happened to me 2x in 2 years, so it's a very real threat to me, and it's a threat that very well may keep me from signing up for more races. I don't want to go through this again, it's just a monumental waste of money."

By chance are you registered for St. George next year? If so, I'll cancel my accommodations ;-). Just kidding. It is terrible that you and everyone else registered didn't get to race. I'm sorry.


For the other post about things to do tomorrow. The Sierra Foothills have fantastic wineries if your into wine. Not too far away. Just call to see what's open on Mondays. It could be a nasty drive in the weather.


https://www.fairplaywine.com/

The California auto museum might take you 45 minutes ;) The aerospace, fire, & crocker art museums might be of interest to you as well. There is an underground tour, but it pales compared to Seattle's and probably isn't the best in the rain. There are also a number of escape rooms. Maybe catch a movie at the IMAX or shoot some guns at one of the ranges.

Kind of random, but if you like audiobooks I recommend getting a Sacramento library card (you might have to be a California resident - not sure). Once you have a card, you'll have access to a huge selection of audiobooks (and E-books) through the overdrive app. Between Sacramento, San Francisco, & Los Angeles counties, I rarely have to buy an audiobook anymore...

Also random, and I personally don't understand it, but a number of people seem to enjoy browsing through the IKEA and eating at their food court. That reminds me - if you like almonds I'd recommend stopping by the Blue Diamond gift shop downtown (check out the Thai Chili almonds). On that note, Jelly Belly has a factory tour that's kind of cool not too far away in Fairfield

New Email:

If I were going to do Tempe, should I just go back to doing my training plan as if it was September 27th (which would mean a ~1.5 week peak load & 2.5 week taper)? Or given that I have done relatively low volume the last 2 weeks should I instead do more like a 3 week build and a 1 week taper?

Anyone have any info on the Tempe course? Water quality, road surface, scenery, winds, etc?

Water quality varies from year to year. In general it is not great. In 2019 the water was very cold.
Road surface was pretty good most years, although the section through Rio Salado is pretty rough. Winds can be a factor since it is an open desert. Some years had massive winds (ie 2014). Rain or heat can be factors.
In general, it is a pretty fast but boring course.

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Next races on the schedule: none at the moment

Not in direct response to you but generally, I think the RD did everything right here in terms of the cancellation, including ensuring the force majeur clause was protected.

My only gripe is that they had nowhere for athletes to be protected from the elements before the race. That very clearly should have been planned for. One giant tent in that huge parking lot and everyone would have had a shot of not getting drenched 90 mins before the race. You could also have stored the bike bags there overnight vs leaving them directly in the weather.

If there's any question about the weather conditions for those that aren't here just turn on the Niner game and you'll see exactly what it's been like since midnight last night.

FLO Wheels take in Water ?? i.e. FLOw Wheels maybe?

Fwiw, in an unrelated call last week with Andrew Messick (regarding FulGaz), he noted 170 Ironman races a year.

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My tiny little slice of the internets: dcrainmaker.com

Didn’t even think of that this morning but yeah that would have been really great. Hope they read your message for next times.
Then the atmosphere was as usual amazing, great spirit from most despite the weather, smiles and excitement everywhere. There’s nothing like race morning. Looking forward to the next.

Its now 10pm here and it's been raining nonstop since this morning. Would have been interesting to say the least

Back in my day we would have raced in rain and snow without those fancy bikes. Sonny we used to swim without wetsuits and those fancy computers!!

Kids are soft these days 👴🏾