Yes, ran into the same thing buying a bike last month (I'm in California). Everyone was sold out of everything except extremely small frames. Most dealers told me summer 2021 for availability. I finally managed to find a demo model at an LBS but otherwise I'd be out of luck.

The LBS owner told me the main holdup was the components. Bike demand is way up, and everyone is buying components from the same few factories and there's a huge backlog.

Owner did say the very high end bikes, ones that are customized or have top-level components, are still available. This was a Trek dealer.

What did you buy?

I got a Trek Domane SL6 for long early season rides. Just a basic endurance, Ultegra-level road bike. My impression from the LBS was the popular 105 and Ultegra level bikes would be on backorder for some time.

Similar in the UK.
One of my friends ordered 2 x mountain bikes (his and hers). About April time. UThe one for his Mrs came after about 3-4 months. But his was more like 8. Came about 3 weeks ago.
Bike shop was open and honest throughout.

Though at least innthe UK, TT bikes seem available. I'm assuming it's the lack of sales of those due to no racing for TT bikes so they still have 2020 stock.

Most, but not all, sizes/colors of the new Canyon Speedmax Disc are available in June, with some not available until October 2021.

It's interesting how many feel this was a buyer's market given the limited racing around the world, but WFH has transformed the role of recreation in peoples' lives. This could be one the big changes that will shape our society long after the pandemic.

I ran into this trying to buy a p-series. I called around to a bunch of shops and eventually found one that a shop about two hours away that had preordered inventory months ago and I put a deposit on one of their preordered bikes. It was came in last month. Another option is my bike shop.com. They have some p-series inventory you can buy. At a good price and without sales tax either! 👍

I'm in the same problem. Sold my tt bike in September expecting cervelo to release its new line up in October... which they did... for all the bikes except the ones I wanted... the PX or the P3X... now I'm staring at the canyon speedmax with an order time of Feb so I can get it before my May race.

See you in Chattanooga with some set up. I tried to message cervelo and tell them... yo. Money burning a whole in my pocket with time ticking. Im gonna buy a canyon if you don't give me a clue on release dates.

Hell... id take it if they updated the paint to the p series frame and kept everything else the same.

The trek is a project one order right? That’s a pretty good turnaround considering bikes are sold out everywhere. I’m surprised the trek isn’t longer. The last time I did a project one order, it was about a 30-45 day turnaround (and that was in 2015).

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blog

We ordered a Trek for my wife around July and will be getting it in January. Not a big deal as long as you know in advance.

Unless you're looking at leftover stock of discontinued rim bikes, it doesn look like a buyers market.

I wouldn't order a bike today for delivery in fall. Id hate to pay retail for a 2021 bike that will arrive when 2022 bikes are launching, possibly with newer tech like the incoming DuraAce.

https://playtristore.com/...riant=36678428065954

Yes, component issues have created a huge shortage. In fact, some have switched from Shimano to SRAM as a result for the upcoming year. I bought the frame only so I can cannibalize my Di2 from my current bike as I have no interest in SRAM. Some of next year's stock is also sold out and we hear that some Treks won't be available until Sept, but obviously not the one you want. Good luck finding your ride.

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Kiwami Racing Team

Slowman is either rolling his eyes, smacking his face, pumping his fist (only because his message is finally being recognized) or displaying a wry smile right now and maybe people starting to realize because
He’s been telling us this is coming for a while. And, that should hardly be news anyways when you look around the world. Yea, this may be ongoing 2021 theme!

The supply chain won’t be normal until 2022. Shimano was telling manufacturers that they are not able to supply group sets til then as well.

If racing finally stars, there may be a run on TTs too

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http://www.TriScottsdale.org

I've had a 2021 road bike on order since September and no sign of when it will be available. I started looking around for alternatives and there isn't much out there and nobody really seems to know when it will get better.

I stumbled across this video from a shop owner that wasn't encouraging:

I have a new large SC never built if anyone is near PA. Also have di2 and wheels to go with it.... Just throwing it out there

it's not with any glee that i read this. i would rather be wrong than right. but as we see in other threads, there's a lot of dithering about which bike to get next spring, and my only interest here is in equipping slowtwitchers with information so that they can navigate the landscape.

regardless of the kind of bike you want to buy (road, tri, gravel, MTB) it's going to be tough. however, there is one silver lining in the tri category: this was a great year for bikes other than tri. tri-specific purchases require a race to be relevant. tri bike, wetsuit, aero helmet, race wheels, those did not sell well this year. gravel and road bikes don't require racing in order to be relevant, so, those products flew off the shelves. those products are in spotty supply now, esp at the lower end. what you have now are the 2020 season tri bikes available, to some degree. when those are gone, well, good luck. hence my admonition to consider buying your 2021 bike now, before those "sale bikes" go back up to MSRP and eventually sell out.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

I edited to convey that a fist pump was only because the message is finally getting across. I realize there is no joy here

Yeah, apparently 11-speed Shimano chains won't be available for months. Everyone baby your chains.

I think you should have some glee because anything that is good for the economic system around our sport is a good thing. Next thing is races. Even though I did not participate in the bike buying I am happy for those involved on the sell side, even though it means continuing to use my 2009 edition Cannondale Slice should we return to racing.

As for needing racing for a TT bike to be relevant, I'm not so sure. I kind of enjoy riding in the TT position with or without a race. Certainly on a flat or rolling long ride, I will take the TT bike any day over a road bike. On a mountain "stage" type of day, for sure the road bike. (All of this assumes the Covid19 period solo/distanced riding since group riding has not been an option where I live....at least technically we never had the option of not riding anything but distanced).

Another option is Quintana Roo. I believe they have bikes they can ship out within a couple weeks.

Is it pandemic-related?

These days what isn't?

Consumers everywhere need to get it that your local retailer isn't dropping the ball on service and brands haven't suddenly forgotten how to manage their business - there IS NO PRODUCT to be had and it's a problem based on upstream inputs and industry timing.

For those who still require a simple primer on the problem, the bullet points are:

Sporting goods retailers place their wholesale orders months in advance of the actual delivery season. That means the shortages starting showing-up last summer because retailers didn't foresee unprecedented demand when they placed there orders before COVID even existed.
Therefore manufacturers didn't make excess inventory to meet unexpected needs.

So, now there's even more pent-up demand.

Normally manufacturers would adjust their future production forecasts accordingly, but since the international supply chain is broken, and the raw materials/other inputs aren't as available as normal, their suppliers have nothing to deliver, or deliver late.

Then you need to consider where the goods are manufactured and the impact that COVID has had on their workforces and operations. Offshore factories closed because there were too many players who popped-up when times were good. And then there's disrupted freight, etc., which had to adjust to nothing and then the huge demand. All of the aircraft that got mothballed? Ships at sea? Hard lockdowns at Chinese shipping ports?

Add it up.

I speak to people in the industry in my city responsible for doing the retail soprting goods buying on a daily basis and if you're frustrated now, just wait a few months. Try buying a 700 x 38 inner tube right now. Or bike parts. The outlook I got last week for a Shimano derailleur was a minimum 3-month wait.

You can try shopping online, but you'd better check first whether you're dealing with a drop shipper, or a company that actually has inventory; or that the company is actually located in your country; otherwise you're sending your $ into backorder purgatory or worse it just disappears forever.

But whatever you do, people, stop taking your frustrations out on local front-line retail staff! They're doing the best they can given a situation no one has ever had to deal with and aren't getting any meaningful answers from their suppliers to pass along to angry customers. You're lucky that they're still in business and you'll be even luckier if they survive long enough to serve you again when this is all over.

Industry people get it - you all have time on your hands and money to spend, but complaining about shortages right now is like complaining that you don't have your own bed to sleep in after your house burnt down - there's going to have to be a whole bunch of interim steps that happen over a long period of time before you get that opportunity again, so best learn to make due. It's going to be a dry summer.

Vent done.

I mentioned this in another thread recently. I ordered a Madone in August and did not receive it until late November. Welcome to the pandemic, I guess

The used market at the end of next year, post vaccine is gonna be insane. Best to just wait and buy used off all these Freds.

Yeah, the Trek SC I'm looking at is a Project One creation. But from what I've heard, that timeline will most likely be a moving target. Waiting to hear back from my LBS if that Feb timeline will hold. No money put down yet but now debating about if I'm going to wait for 3-6 months for either bike, might as well wait for a bike with disc brakes... but I digress, these are truly 1st world problems.
In response to @insulinpowered vent post Completely understand the supply/demand issues, and global shipping lanes being disrupted by pandemic. Rest assured I am not taking it out on my LBS. I have nothing but upmost respect for my LBS (trying to support them rather than ordering from online). Just trying to make informed decisions on what my options are, hear what other folks are experiencing out there and get a sense on whether I should grab the first available or maybe wait for my 'ideal' choice bike. Thanks for everyone's input.

...and my vent was less directed at you and your question, specifically, then it was at all consumers right now - especially those within bike/run categories.

I have heard so much impatience and just general tone deafness - not just here, but also listening first-hand to conversations industry friends and peers are repeatedly going through with their customers and the general public. If I had to listen to 50+ callers a day ask why they can't get what they want RIGHT NOW!, I'd lose my $%!@.

The difference is that they feel they can't speak bluntly (because "the customer is always right"), whereas I have no problem finding the a, s, h,o, l and e keys on my keyboard in their defence...

Cheers.

Used bikes and used home fitness equipment....the prices should be good in 12-18 months if you can hold out!

If your bike shop thinks they can get you a bike in Feb/March I'd say put down a deposit.
I decided that I wanted a new road bike, I thunk I called 8-10 shops in my area and only one had anything in my size and that one wasn't a very popular/desirable brand, some shops are telling me that they won't see anything until July/August.
To be honest I think some bike shops are going to close, not sure how one keeps paying the rent when there is zero inventory for 10 months.
In fact I just was in a shop last week to have my cable replaced, they are a giant dealer, and the owner just bought a new bike from a different shop because he can't get anything from Giant, not even one bike for himself.
I told him I was in the market for a bike and he just laughed....

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http://www.instagram.com/cyclewise

I'll be honest in saying that I know nothing about the industry and my opinions are likely 100% wrong. However this pandemic has been going on for 9+months now. I understand some initial disruption, but to have it linger for this long feels borderline incompetent to me. Just about every other industry I work with or interact with had some initial delays at the start of this and maybe things are a few weeks slower than usual...but by and large they are not months behind like the bike industry is.

What I find to be a little annoying is folks like Specialized, Canyon, etc. announcing new models with super-low stock/inventory levels that are now going to be back ordered for months. Or even better some of them "releasing" their bikes on a certain date when they basically had no inventory in stock to actually sell. I kind of get it from a product release schedule point of view, but I also find it to be a little shady "releasing" a product that you can't really supply or sell.

Likewise, when the pandemic first hit a lot of local bike shops around me kind of threw up their hands when it came to trying to service the new demand. A lot of them had a snarky "we'll get to it when we get to it" kind of attitude and 3-4 weeks lead times to go with it. I get that there's more bikes in the shop to service than usual...but I literally watch my Velofix guy completely strip and rebuild my bike in less than hour when he comes by. I can't fathom a shop with 2-3 competent mechanics not being able to service 200+ bikes within a week if they really tried.

Lastly, I remember being amped to purchase a bike right at the start of the pandemic and being told there was a 20-24 week lead time. Honestly even if I purchased that bike back in March, I'm not sure if I would have actually received it. Again...I understand some supply chain troubles but I also don't think it's acceptable to tell someone who is willing to drop $6K+ on something that they have to wait that long. In my business when you have someone willing to spend money you move heaven and earth to make that happen...you don't saddle them with your own logistics issues.

I don't know! It just seems like a lot of industries really tried hard to pivot and minimize disruption and there were a few blips here and there but a lot of them did a great job. To me the bike industry often complains about how tight margins are, how difficult it is to spread cycling popularity and growth for the industry etc. yet when actual demand and interest came its way, a lot of folks in the industry kind of just threw up their hands and said "there's nothing more we can do to service you better/faster" and I just have a hard time believing that.

For instance, if Shimano is having some supply chain issues with their components (which to me...is a little ridiculous this long into the pandemic) is it not more advantageous to get bikes to shops with a mixture of other components? Sure it's not the full Shimano Ultegra model that maybe the manufacturer wants to sell...but having a bike to sell is better than not having one at all.

It just seems like this is a once in a lifetime opportunity for the bike industry to really move some product, service some brand new people, and make a lot more money than usual, and it's kind of fumbling all over itself because it's a little harder to connect the dots in order to make things to work properly right now.

Again, I am probably completely off base on this and there's likely some legitimate challenges that I am not aware of. I just work with industries that are doing much more complicated work and they've been able to figure things out pretty darn well.

i think you're right in that the bike industry is very cumbersome and set in its ways so has not been able to adapt as well as many other industries.

you may be missing that shimano components seem to be the major limiting factor and they are probably still recovering from the fire that took out one of their main factories in 2018.

it should be possible to work around this by supplying bikes with sram/campag instead but the vast majority of components are sold OEM a year in advance so there just isn't spare capacity in those brands to suddenly pick up that market as well as the unexpected demand for models already specced with their parts.

the bike industry just isn't agile. it hasn't had an appropriate business model in past as demand has always been fairly predictable with minimal disruptors. it is also a very distributed industry with frame, drivetrain, wheel etc manufacturers, each with factories spread around the world and their own supply chain issues, then distributors, retailers etc all complicting matters - no one company can adapt on their own and make headway.

so it is unfortunate that in a time of opportunity, the industry is unable to meet the demand and grow the sport but the bike industry is facing particular challenges that most others are not

You are right but you are probably only 95% wrong.

I’ll only take the mechanic nugget... 200 bikes a week. 28 bikes a day. Even with 3 mechanic spaces, that is 9 bikes a day per mechanic. Let’s say 9-7 with an hr lunch (no shops are open that long on weekends) 1 bike per hour. And then where are we storing 60-90 bikes...

Not a chance

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http://www.TriScottsdale.org

I mean storage logistics aside (which I will admit can be a challenge for some shops...but at the same time others have plenty of room) that doesn't sound crazy to me. I think my Velofix guy does around 5-6 a day and he's driving throughout the county between stops.

I guess my thing is...the shops could probably have turned around things a bit quicker if they wanted to. It would have maybe meant staying late and coming in on a few weekends in a worst case scenario, but some of them just felt like that wasn't an option and 3-4 week lead times was a better alternative for their customers. In some ways I get it if you don't want to push your people too hard...but I also don't want to hear about how hard it is to keep an LBS afloat when you can't scale your efforts to meet the demand you have.

I just feel like this is a really big opportunity for the industry and because they are so slow to respond they are going to miss out on it. I can't fathom how that makes sense or is acceptable to them as they're just not going to see this kind of demand anytime soon.

If you get a Trek before May: consider yourself fortunate.

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no sponsors | no races | nothing to see here

Re:

“I can't fathom a shop with 2-3 competent mechanics not being able to service 200+ bikes within a week if they really tried.”

”I also don't think it's acceptable to tell someone who is willing to drop $6K+ on something that they have to wait that long. In my business when you have someone willing to spend money you move heaven and earth to make that happen...you don't saddle them with your own logistics issues.[/quote] “



I think you’ve just proven my point...

Also parts logistics. I just stopped by a shop, and he said he can't get 11 speed chains. From anyone. And various other parts.

That's a problem for timely service.

I work at a shop. If I order today, the next day Trek will ship a reasonable priced full suspension mountain bike is Feb 2022.

Best of luck. I am personally selling a 56cm Cervelo P5 Di2 Ultegra from 2020. Brand new!

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I am a bad runner.
I met Javier Gomez once.
I don't speak in miles.
I have opinions.

I agree that the parts issue is pretty hard to overcome right now. I more take issue with a lot of shops not really servicing their customers in a timely manner when this first started happening and there were plenty of parts in stock. That just didn't feel appropriate to me.

Now if there's a broken derailleur or chain...there's nothing that can be done without the part.

ok, that is complete madness! no excuse for not being able to scale/adapt in less than 2 years

mind you, my wife ordered a kickr bike back in April, for June delivery. still no eta, guessing it might be june 2021 if she's lucky! i don't think any have made it to NZ yet.

I think your point was mostly "don't be upset at your LBS because they can't get product" which I'm not per say. Although I am annoyed with those who felt like 3-4 week repair lead times were acceptable when this first hit...now that there's no parts to repair bikes with it's a little more okay for them to say that.

I think my point more-so is a lot of people can be understanding of COVID-19 effecting things for a few months. But when you see other industries figuring things out, and this industry is telling you they're just going to be out of bikes until 2022 in some cases, I think it's fair to levy some criticism. From an outside perspective it feels like there's just no problem solving actually happening when you see stuff like that.

I'm also very curious where the problem actually lies. Sure Shimano has been backed up...but I mean it seems like every manufacturer and every type of bike isn't available at the moment. To me it makes sense if there's a hold up on say carbon fiber road bikes, but aluminum mountain bikes are being pumped out still but it seems like nothing is really coming through. Like is the whole supply chain just wiped out? Or are small components that literally every bike in the world uses, just not being manufactured which is in turn crippling things? It just doesn't quite make sense to me.

I don't mind the delay. I understand the reluctance to stand up new factory shifts, etc, for what may be a temporary, acute spike in demand that could quickly evaporate.

What irritates me at times is the complete lack of honest communication in some cases.

I'll pick on Wahoo. There are no Element Bolts or Roams in stock right now. (my 3-year-old Bolt is dying) Fine. I get it. But no information on when they might be expected. I'd be fine with something "maybe Q4 2021". No option to sign up for an email notification for when they might be in stock. Just complete radio silence. And Garmin 530s are in stock. I am - or was - a Wahoo fanboi. But if they can't be troubled to let me know what's going on, I don't have a lot of choice but to back to Garmin.

A company that's doing it right is Concept 2. I've been waiting many months for one of their rowing ergometers. And every week I get an email notification with an estimate of when I may be due to order one. It makes me feel like a valued customer even if the wait is possibly far longer what Wahoo's could be.

I was doing curbside pickup at the grocery store today and talking to the girl who brings the orders out about how crazy everything is. I guess there was a shortage of the artificial sweetener used in diet soda, so Diet Coke and Pepsi weren't available. Then they ran out of supplies to substitute Coke Zero because of the shift in demand. God forbid people had to drink regular Coke for a couple weeks. Oddly enough, one of the things she said they have been out of for about 2 months is Alfredo sauce W.T.F.

Closer to home, my local brewery is having a hell of a time sourcing aluminum cans, so some their beers are no longer available. Much of the aluminum can shortage is because the keg business went south when things shut down, but I don't think anyone is necessarily drinking less beer (I sure the hell haven't cut back).

So it turns out that a lot of the problems are a steady, or increased demand, and a rapid shift in only one part of the equation. Maybe you can;t get Shimano stuff because all that aluminum is going to beer cans.

A world designed for "just in time inventory" and not building and maintaining excess capacity is super fragile to shocks in the system.

I know very little about the supply chain other than what I read. I think it is a combination of issues in the supply chain related to the pandemic and a significant increase in demand. I also don’t think that this is unique to the bike industry but the demand is for outdoor activities in general. In Canada it was nearly impossible to find a travel trailer or camping gear this summer. Currently, it is tough to fine cross country ski equipment, snow shoes etc.

People can’t just fly away on vacation so dollars are being spent on activities that can be done near by and socially distant.

Ya I have heard these stories and they make sense. The odd thing is that I have gotten two bikes since August and both have been what I consider very good deals on bikes that sat in a LBS for a while and they were blowing them out. The first was a 3T Exploro frame that was from a demo bike I got for $1500 (then I built it with a $750 Campy Potenza group I got from Germany and HED Eroica wheels, so sub-2500 for a really fast gravel bike). The second was a brand new 2019 Cannondale SystemSix with Di2 for $5000.

Other than the fact that I don't think there has been a 700x28 GP5000 TL in the US for close to 3 months, I really haven't seen any impact from the pandemic on my bike buying habits.

I was quoted at less than 2 months for a SLR build because it was through project one. I just haven’t pulled the trigger yet because well it’s kind of out of my price range.

My LBS ids also a Giant dealer, apart from a couple of MTB's and one or two kids bikes (including a balance bike), he has no stock.
Has had to move into other brands that he can get his hands on that are manufactured elsewhere other than Asia.
He says the only brand he can get with any semi-reasonable reliability is Focus

Frames are ready to roll from Trek. Components are the problem. I just tried to order a GX MTB cassette for a customers fat bike and it will arrive in October.

Make sure you stock up on wearable parts for your bikes. I have extra stuff put away for myself. Chains, Cassettes, Tires, etc...

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I am a bad runner.
I met Javier Gomez once.
I don't speak in miles.
I have opinions.

Maybe I should try and find a local Focus dealer.

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http://www.instagram.com/cyclewise

I am in Australia though ;-)

I can buy 12 * 105 11 speed chains today. and 12 ultegra chains

Not to mention that at least in the early part of all of this, shops were selling several times as many bikes as usual. Who was assembling all those bikes? Who was installing kickstands, racks, bottle cages, or swapping saddles, bars, and stems on those sold bikes? The pandemic created a much greater need for repair services, and at the same time left the shops less time available to do them. Your Velofix guy isn't trying to do at least the same amount of service work as before AND trying to build and prep dozens of extra sold bikes per week...

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"I'm thinking of a number between 1 and 10, and I don't know why!"

But when you see other industries figuring things out, and this industry is telling you they're just going to be out of bikes until 2022 in some cases, I think it's fair to levy some criticism. From an outside perspective it feels like there's just no problem solving actually happening when you see stuff like that.

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What industries have figured it out while the bike industry hasn't. Let's start there with this discussion point.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

When I walk through my local Target store, I don't see empty shelves in any of the departments. Looks like the normal amount of toys, electronics, clothes, etc.

I ordered a new iPhone 12 today, and picked it up an hour later. Your local Apple store being closed is a greater barrier than actual product availability, as best I can tell.

Local car dealers seem to have plenty of inventory on their lots. Maybe some new model releases have been postponed, I'm not sure. Probably some I suspect.

Nothing I can think of that's been perpetually unavailable at the grocery store. Not since springtime anyway.

The new PS5's are apparently hard to get.

Just a few anecdotal observations.

A quick google search I did on car inventory in the U.S. show a much different viewpoint. It should be noted that if your comparing industries, let's have an apple to apple comparison to make it a more appropriate discussion. Suggesting that because the grocery store or target stores are stocked means that the bike store should be stocked is a bit unfair when you consider the industries have completely different processes. Grocery stores have much wider reach of starting points, where as, if you note the limited supply of cars in the US ( I found 2 quick articles suggesting limited inventory) it's because of distribution being tied to key locations for inventory (ASIA).


So why is it that car inventory in the US is also being shown to have "limited" inventory?


ETA: 3 articles I read dated Aug, Oct, and Nov all have "low inventory" options for consumers. I deleted the link cus it seemed to be too large.
Yes, vehicle inventory has dropped to historic lows. Inventory of new cars dropped as low as a 62 day supply this summer. This is well below the mark of 79 days from July 2019. Some large OEMs had inventory supply of below 40 days. When COVID hit in March, dealers had 3.4 million vehicles in inventory. Now, that number is down to 2.2 million. And, it is October. Dealers should be striking deals to get 2020 models off the lot and makes space for 2021 models. 2021 models may not actually show up until 2021. That is unheard of. (sounds like they pulled a few posts from this thread to go in their article lol).


So if you are going to show me industries that have a wide reach of inventory starting point against a comparison of bike industry, we won't have much to discuss because your missing the key point. When your industry is tied to key specific starting point locations, and said locations went on "lock down" you are going to see the issues we have had. If your industry has a wide scope of starting locations, of course you are going to bounce back quicker. So you made a note to include car inventory, so it's interesting that that industry is also having an inventory shortage.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

If you ordered the iphone12 then you would get it. Apple is having 2-3 week inventory issues for their higher end model (12 pro); quick google search shows inventory world wide is limited. That particular model will be limited in supple until Q2 '21.

https://www.gizchina.com/...t-of-stock-globally/



Which is similiar to the bike industry but it's flipped in the bike industry of which is out of stock. The more expensive models are more available at this point. The entry level price points are completely out of stock.


But again let's get back to the point...why is apple having shortages? Because of initial product production locations.


So again tell me what industries are doing well and what are having inventory issues and you can likely understand why.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

The two sources I looked at showed November 2020 domestic auto inventories down about 15-18% from November 2019 levels.

I don't find any parallel data for the bicycle industry, but the situation seems far more severe than a 15-18% decline.

Cant even place an order for a CFR until June....

IPhone inventory is often limited immediately after launch. This is nothing unusual.

I just think if your going to "levy some criticism" against the bike industry and say other industries are bouncing back, I think it's only fair to suggest this opinion that the other gent had is a bit misinformed. You posted about the car and phone industry and both are having "inventory problems" just like the bike industry is having; the *degree* of inventory problem I guess is then the debate.

But if your just a consumer that is pissed off that you can't buy a bike right now....that's cool, I get that. I work in the industry and experience that on a daily basis, "what do you mean that bike isn't coming in til next summer at earliest" (we want to sell you the bike so you know we can keep the lights on too)......But I dont think that gives you the right to make up information to validate your point. I think it's been fairly shown that industries that are tied to key/few distribution locations are being hit hardest the most; especially tied to the Asian inventory distribution market.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Bloomberg suggests otherwise:
Apple is reportedly facing a shortage of crucial chips used to manage power consumption in iPhones and other devices. Bloomberg cites people familiar with the matter, who told the publication the supply issues will complicate the company’s ability to meet holiday demand for the new iPhones. However, it remains unclear to what extent the shortages will impact the devices. Further, suppliers are likely to prioritize Apple over other customers needing the scarce parts, according to Bloomberg’s sources. The shortages come from increasing demand for chips in concert with supply chain disruptions caused by COVID-19.

Read more at MobileSyrup.com: Apple reportedly experiencing supply issues with iPhone 12 power chips

(this was an article in Nov...the early post, showed an global world wide shortage that was in Dec....so yes apple is in a shortage, I dont think you will win that debate).

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Buy used

sold my 2020 P5

Bought 2014 P3

Hmm I guess I'll have to wait to q5 2021 until I can get out that way :)

Adding to this if anyone's interested: in the last Cyclingtips Nerd Alert podcast (in the last 10 minutes) James Huang said that, per his bike manufacturer contacts, Shimano orders placed now have ETAs in 2022. So ... yeah, pent up demand. It's going to be a thing. Lucky I'm waxing my chains, so I don't expect to need a new chain in 2021.

 
Buy used

sold my 2020 P5

Bought 2014 P3[/quote]
Why did you do that? Free up money? You didn't like the p5?

"Pink"
How have you withstood the backlash of going backwards from disc to rim brake!!!??

There is no debate over degree. The "inventory problems" are in no way similar in scope or magnitude.

What products made by Samsung Nike Toyota LG Apple Lenovo Intel Honda Google HP Qualcomm Amazon etc. etc. that were readily available before the pandemic now have a 6-12 month wait?? You can rightly say that about products from Specialized, Trek, Canyon etc. All of the above rely heavily on Asian production. Most have much more complex supply chains than a bicycle maker faces.

This "debate" is asinine, frankly.

Yes, happened to me too. (Was ready to purchase a Trek in Nov, yet no delivery till May.) Still not sure what I am going to do. Glad I am not the only one feeling this pinch.

Most have much more complex supply chains than a bicycle maker faces.

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I'd be curious which of those companies have had the specific big demand for their product since the start of the pandemic. I work at a tri shop on the east coast of US that sells both shoes and bikes. Since the pandemic has hit i've seen more people want bikes of all designs and usages than I have seen the same uptick in running shoe sales. Some models of running shoes I think have increased sales (Hoka) over others in our market. So you combine huge demand for an item that then has an supply chain issue; you'll run into this issue.


The 2nd biggest boom we had initially in our market was wetsuit sales. When all the pools shut down for 2-3 months, we pretty much had every size from XS to Med sold out fairly quickly as almost every swim team in our area (we have 4 "big" swim teams in the triangle area) went to the lake for "swim practice". I did get a kick out of it because my squad of athletes also was using the lake, and I pretty much converted pool lane swims into the lake by bringing the buoys and spacing them 100m apart, etc. It was funny to see the "swimmers" just out there swimming big loops around the perimeter of the lake and use swimming in a square where I could actually get splits and essentially did indoor lane swimming sets outside. I'd get a lot of "what are yall doing...my reply "something your coaches should be doing for you guys". Big red bouncy balls that are like not even $50 are hella good investment for "buoys".

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Slowman is either rolling his eyes, smacking his face, pumping his fist (only because his message is finally being recognized) or displaying a wry smile right now and maybe people starting to realize because
He’s been telling us this is coming for a while. And, that should hardly be news anyways when you look around the world. Yea, this may be ongoing 2021 theme!


Yup.

Several things all coming together here.

1. Large increase overall in bike purchases.

2. Manufacturing disruption in manufacturing locations for both bike and the various components (China specifically) earlier this year. The echo for this can take a while to move through the system.

3. Ironically the bike business had just somewhat right-sized it's manufacturing and distribution channels after 5 - 10 years of having TOO MANY bikes in the channel - with participation numbers stagnant or going down for cycling and triathlon since about 2013.

4. A rapid ramping up of sales this year, had people wondering - what happens next year? Can I expect the same 20% - 30% growth in my sales? This is hard to know. I suspect that Retailers, will be conservative in their buying/booking.

5. Gravel - driving a micro trend increase in All-Rounder bikes. If you are eyeing one of these, best to order and hold now.

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

[I didn't read whole thread, just last few posts, sorry if this is repetitive] I chose quite the time to try and get new bikes for me and my wife...but nonetheless in calling around to shops, they both strongly implied that shimano is the reason for the back order madness. i get the impression that certain manufacturers just don't have the groupsets to put on their bikes to sell them. Every shop I contacted (and Trek's website) has Emonda ALR framesets available - but no full bike Emonda ALRs until mid to late 2021. Even when I explored the avenue of getting a frameset, they quickly added that I'd need to find a BB to put in it from another source, because they couldn't get one from shimano right now. yikes.

regardless of the kind of bike you want to buy (road, tri, gravel, MTB) it's going to be tough. however, there is one silver lining in the tri category: this was a great year for bikes other than tri. tri-specific purchases require a race to be relevant. tri bike, wetsuit, aero helmet, race wheels, those did not sell well this year. gravel and road bikes don't require racing in order to be relevant, so, those products flew off the shelves. those products are in spotty supply now, esp at the lower end. what you have now are the 2020 season tri bikes available, to some degree. when those are gone, well, good luck. hence my admonition to consider buying your 2021 bike now, before those "sale bikes" go back up to MSRP and eventually sell out.


Good advice from, Dan. I agree 100%

I'm one less buyer to worry about!! :-)

2020 was supposed to be New Bike Year for me. Had some $$ set aside. Choices narrowed down to a select short list of All Rounders - road and gravel use! Then the Pandemic came, wiped out a whole year of work and income for me! Now New Bike Year will have to be some other year! Looks like at least another year of riding on my beat up old Cervelo R3!

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Sucks but then again, it's a good "problem" to have given the state of the world economy. Bike popularity has sky rocketed & manufacturing is down b/c of covid. I zero-ed in on a Trek Procaliber early in the year but had to travel 1.5 hours (it was the last in the mid Atlantic). "Thankfully," I got my SC in January!

5. Gravel - driving a micro trend increase in All-Rounder bikes.

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It's fascinating how many people we have come in and want a now "all around" bike that will talk about getting a gravel bike and then get a road slick wheelset for said gravel bike. Our next question to that customer- "what is your preferred riding surface". Because there are some +/- to going each route with said bike and not really all that many "all around" bikes. I mean you can certainly get a gravel and take it on the road....no problem. Your just looking at a gear restriction difference on the gravel vs the road bike.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I'd call it an interesting debate, rather than asinine. :)

Surely there are some differences between those companies listed above and the bike industries. I don't think people in the bike industry all just happen to be stupid or lazy. Surely there are some structural differences. It'd be interesting to sort out.

"what is your preferred riding surface".



Brooks,


That's a key question to ask. And as I think has been discussed here, before and I think someone did a piece on this on the front page, when you say "gravel" - what does that gravel look like?

There will be a big range there - depending on location and preferences.

Gravel for me is the many rail-trails that I have access to locally with my riding, as well as some park trails local to the house, that all use a fine aggregate, that when packed down, is actually quite smooth. Our actual gravel roads here in Southern Ontario, also tend to be in good shape with a hard packed gravel dirt surface that is reasonably smooth. Heck we have some paved roads that are in worse shape than what I have just mentioned here. For all of that, the bike of choice would actually be a road bike with as wide a tire clearance as you can get - something like a Cervelo Caledonia, Specialized Roubaix, or Trek Domane. I'm sure other brands have similar models. A full blown, what you would consider a "Gravel Bike", would really be over-kill.

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

I would be curious how many companies have everything made "in house" vs what the distribution of a bike is. This thread is littered with 2 issues- bike parts issue and a frame build issue. They work hand in hand, so when Canyon makes a bike, if they can't put Shimano parts on said bike.....your in a pickle.

I have no clue if that is similiar in other industries. I dont know how many companies make everything in house and how many contract/partner. So again there's a whole lot of moving parts here that when you just make a blanket statement that x industry has it figured out....I'd like to know how/why they have it figured it out and then compare it to the bike industry.

It reminds me of the drinking game we once thought of on the college cycling team.....take a drink for how many different manufactor logos are on a bike. Frame, seat, parts, handle bars usually are all different companies. That's 4 at the min and likely more. It's a hodge podge that I just dont think as you stated "we are lazy" in trying to fix the issue.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I do have to cringe at the irony of everything and the shit is seemingly always thrown at the LBS.


Pre Covid (go read any LBS thread on ST and this was the sentiment):
Consumer: "it's the LBS fault that you are in a industry that is dying because you aren't adjusting to changes in how consumers purchase bike related items outside of the local store"

Post Covid:
Consumer"It's the LBS fault that I cant buy a bike from you right NOW."

They can't win apparently.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

It seems all outdoor recreation is going through the same problem.

This summer I could barely find fishing bobbers, fishing line etc... Most boat dealers were out of inventory by July, same for ATVs etc.

This fall, hunting ammunition is next to impossible to find, firearms were pretty well sold out as well.

This winter, ice fishing gear is selling out fast.

The CEO of Federal Ammunition put out a video explaining their manufacturing shortages. The shear number of people replacing youth sports with other outdoor recreation is unreal and putting some serious strain on those retailers etc.

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Pactimo brand ambassador, ask me about promo codes

Good food for thought......
I was planning on selling my gravel bike in the spring and take those funds to buy a new gravel bike. I will definitely want to make sure the “new” bike will actually be available first.

"They work hand in hand, so when Canyon makes a bike, if they can't put Shimano parts on said bike.....your in a pickle. "


This is a huge opening for SRAM. I know some brands have switched from Shimano to SRAM because of lack of parts.

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Kiwami Racing Team

Not just fulfilling existing inventory, but Shimano is now officially due, approaching overdue (given their prior release history) for a new Dura-Ace release. Don't know if they're going to have the ability to tool up and switch production lines for something like a 12-speed wireless Dura-Ace when they have backorders of months for the older stuff.

Based on experiences with Di2 and E-Tap I hope they can't, as Di2 is rock solid.

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Kiwami Racing Team

11sp eTap was rock solid for me for 4 years. A grand total of zero issues, despite crashes, snow storms, and all manner of habuse. I'm now a fanboi. SRAM knocked it out of the park on that first release of a totally new way of shifting. I just sold the group used in the classifieds. It outlasted the Cervelo S5 frame I had it on (delamination in the bottom bracket).

Just got an AXS Red group on a new bike as a replacement. So far I'm very happy with it. My only concern is drivetrain friction - so it's not on my TT bike, just my road bike. I'll be curious to see what Shimano comes out in terms of wireless - hopefully more traditional TT-friendly gearing.

Which of those companies you named had a sudden increase in demand of several hundred percent? Until we basically ran out of our most popular products, from the beginning of the pandemic through late summer our monthly bike and part sales were 300-400% of what we had anticipated. Even with very little product trickling in to our warehouse, we're still holding over 100% of our projected sales. At least among people I know, I didn't see people rushing out to buy new cars and phones. Most people I knew were tightening their belts, not knowing if they were still going to have jobs. Recreation options were limited, but riding bikes with your family was one of the few options and was relatively affordable (at least until all the lower end models sold out).

But to add another layer to all of this…

We’re currently looking at a largely empty warehouse, parts and bikes are just trickling in. And much of that is already pre-sold to dealers.

We have some bikes assembled and ready to ship from Asia, but they’re just sitting over there because of ship and container shortages. We’ve got some product in containers on ships just sitting outside of the harbor but can’t be unloaded because the port is backed up. We’ve got product in containers sitting in the port, but can’t be transported to us because there are shortages of drivers, as well as chassis shortages. Every issue is magnified by the one in front of it, and magnifies the one after it. So it isn’t just “Shimano isn’t making enough stuff”, there’s also the problem of getting what is being made from the factories over there, to the dealers over here…

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"I'm thinking of a number between 1 and 10, and I don't know why!"

Well the shop I frequent has had a rash of derailleur warranty claims and even Ted King laments the poor battery life, which we also see. Front derailleur shifting is crap, as well as TT setup with 2 buttons is truly ridiculous. Road bike/tri bike are different, but battery life, dependability and fast and firm shifting certainly go Shimano's way.

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Kiwami Racing Team

Shimano is just fine if SRAM not available for some reason. :)

Ted forgot to charge his battery. But was saved by being able to swap front and rear - something you can't do with Di2, where you're stuck in one gear if your battery dies.

Doesn't Shimano basically do that automatically? Low battery kills the front first and leaves you with more rear shifts?

https://weightweenies.starbike.com/...php?f=3&t=153126

One of many threads and reflective of what I've seen a number of times.

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Kiwami Racing Team

Put this post on the front page as a Public Service Announcement!

Just wait for March 21. That’s when they celebrate 100yr anniversary

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http://www.TriScottsdale.org

I know this thread is in the context of bikes/components, but it seems reasonable that this will also impact stuff like running shoes. If one of the takeaways here to grab extra consumeables (like chains) while you can cause they'll be super hard to come by over the coming months/year, is it also reasonable to buy an extra pair or two of your favourite shoes now in anticipation of not being able to later on?

This is the most accurate situation for us and every bike manufacturer - very spot on!

It also doesn't help that raw materials needed for manufacturing are being limited and logistics can affect new product from making their way across the seas (i.e. a cargo ship dropping some of its containers in the middle of the sea). So many things happen that the end consumer doesn't see which doesn't give the clearest picture.

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Mitchell Mathews | Community Manager | Trek Bikes | @mitchmathewz

The tri shop that I work out on the east coast sales run shoes and we haven't seen this is an issue or predict it as an issue, *yet*. This is on the east coast and we also sale Hoka. I mention Hoka's because I've sold more Hoka shoes to people coming in who are *only* "walking not running anymore" and we still don't anticipate inventory issues.

We've sold the hell out of some bikes, an huge initial surge in wetsuits that now has dropped (but that was because the lake was cold and swim team fish needed a way to swim in the lake....I think in 4 months I've had 3 people ask about wetsuits), steady sales in shoes, and a drop in anything race related.

It wouldn't be a bad idea to get a 2nd pair, but I don't think it'll be gone in 4 months. Maybe slowman has better intel. We have seen that getting the shoes on order can at times be a little longer than expected. We normally could order a shoe and get it in a week, it's now 10+ days.

But if the pandemic continues to hit us at the knees, eventually shoe inventory may be gone.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

So can you give us your best guess for a prognosis on 2021 bikes? What happens with 2021 bikes and how would 2022 releases be affected?

Thanks for your input.

Personally, I think 2021 is going to be a mimic of what we are seeing through 2020 with the delayed bikes and further ETAs. But we're also producing more bikes than ever with ramped up manufacturing and our great relationship with our third-party vendors helps to keep inventory flowing - but of course not as fast as we want. So far, 2022 bikes are still planning to release on time, but availability is something we're working on. In a perfect world, we hope to have inventory levels settled by next year, but we can be honest and say it isn't going to happen. However, we do plan to have limited inventory for new model releases just like what we did for the recent Emonda and Slash launches. A lot can change in 2021 though, so we're all just along for the ride at this point like the rest of the industry.

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Mitchell Mathews | Community Manager | Trek Bikes | @mitchmathewz

Mitch,
Can you confirm for all of us whether or not you guys at TREK are actively pursuing a new disc Speed Concept? We all would like a clear answer. Us it being worked on or not (not meant to sound harsh)?

I’ve had multiple footwear brands tell us they expect supply chain issues this year, including 1 that 2 weeks ago pushed 1/1 launch product to 1/12 as they had no chance of getting product out on time.

All brands have told us to book heavy for the year, cut if we need to and to not rely on filling in product as they most likely won’t have it,

For brands that sell direct with Amazon, Amazon is asking for product early, something they never ask for. That’s straining vendors in the short term as their timelines for everything is changing

Getting product from Asia has become a major strain with some brands choosing to air freight product over, that doesn’t work in the long term as it cuts margins hard and can’t be their solution.

I don’t expect a shortage overall but some brands will be impacted more then others and stores that don’t plan well will have issues.

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Boots
Fleet Feet Rochester, NY
Fleet Feet Buffalo, NY
YellowJacket Racing, Rochester, NY

Are y’all seeing huge increase in shoe sales? Like I said out tri store sells both shoes (Hoka, Brooks, Saucony, Altra, ASICS) and tri/gravel/road (higher end price point bikes).

Our bike sales have been through the roof, our shoe sales atleast from the 22+ hrs a week I work there and just seeing inventory has been steady but nothing like the bike explosion.

I’ve have seen more “walkers” come in for shoes than ever before this year.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Being in the North East, specifically NY, no we are not seeing huge growth as restrictions have been tough. Footwear is up slightly but everything else is down huge. Online sales have grown a lot but that doesn’t offset in store revenue

The South East has been on fire all year with high teens to low 20s comp growth every month. Business have been open all year and sales super strong.

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Boots
Fleet Feet Rochester, NY
Fleet Feet Buffalo, NY
YellowJacket Racing, Rochester, NY

Awesome news, good luck to yall in '21. Hope sales are great and able to manage this whole distribution issue if it comes to that.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I'll be shocked if he is actually able to answer this. It would be highly unusual for a representative of a company with an existing product in the marketplace to comment on their development plans for future replacement models. Just not the way things work. When there is transparency about development of a new product it's generally with a startup company or a venture into a new product space.

So you can ask but really you're putting him in a spot where he can't answer without getting in a lot of trouble.

Here in Madison we have seen huge shoe sales also. Saucony and Hoka lead the charge with the new Saucony line crushing it; Hoka only because we discount the 6 models that are going away.

Bike sales; we saw an increase in road, dead on tri. The last 2 weeks tri have picked up but we still have a LOT of bikes. We have people come in and be surprised we have so much. Hope they pass on the word we have inventory.

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Kiwami Racing Team

I would imagine if they can make one faster than the current speed concept they'll do it.....
So the answer is probably no.

Well, maybe. But like it or not, the marketplace has mostly moved to disc brakes and if they want to remain competitive in this space they'll have to make a disc SC, whether or not it's faster.

If they don't it's because they've decided the current tri marketplace is not worth the development cost and they'd rather focus on other more profitable market segments.

I don't disagree with you but it's interesting that there's been 3-4 threads on here in the last 1-2 weeks of folks buying or considering buying the existing SC.

There's a decent population of SC owners waiting to lifecycle their SC's. At some point, they will find something else.

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blog

I have a few Treks and get their advertising stuff in the mail a few times a year. What I have stopped seeing is Trek's speed concepts in anything they send me. MTN, road, gravel, e-bikes mailer and emails are wearing me out but nothing from the triathlon department.

I think that Trek either has something new in the works or they are getting out of the triathlon business. I don't think there is a middle ground for them anymore.

This is what's always been conveyed to me, and I'll give them a lot of credit for it. They said they're not coming out with a new TT/Tri bike until they can make one faster or better. So, you can bet if they do announce a new bike, they're convinced they've got something very good on their hands. Honestly, what bike out there beats it? None of them really do, though the gap has, perhaps, finally been closed. Based on their continued support of their athletes, which from what I've seen is unrivaled by any other brand, I don't think they're abandoning the market. I realize I get an inside look, but I can tell you I haven't seen any other major brand that's as loyal to their athletes as Trek.

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Jim Manton / ERO Sports

Just a quick update from the original post. For those of you interested in how long it took to get my bike. I ended up placing an order for a Trek SC Project One design the first week of January. Just picked up the finished product yesterday and couldn't be more pleased. So approximately 3 months from the time the order was placed. Well worth the wait in my humble opinion.
A huge thanks (and big plug) to Chris Richardson who helped me every step of the way and 'dialed me in' with the perfect bike fit. Anyone living inthe mid-Atlantic area (particularly DC/MD/VA) needing a guy who knows what he's talking about when it comes to bike fitting (took the time, detailed, thorough and knowledgeable), I highly recommend him. Check him out at: https://www.richardsonbikefit.com/
And without further ado, the final product...

2 months*

Which does seem to be the lead time. I’ve been waiting about that for handlebars from Trek. (Should come in this week)

Very good looking, you will enjoy it.
However, you are taking a risk with the aerobar in that tilt angle.
Or you must have used a longer then standard bolt.
If not, you are above the tilt angle Trek allows for their aerobar which is maxing out a 9 degrees of tilt.

Jeroen

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Owner at TRIPRO, The Netherlands

Can you post a video of you riding that bike on a trainer so we can see the fit?

I ordered in October.
I'll have my new bike ready in April.
Welcome to pandemic supply problems that anyone who has been paying attention knows about.

Beautiful bike. Get some thick tape and tape off everywhere the head tube can touch the frame (just turn it all the way in each direction) thank me later

Also start the search now for the mono plug (thank me later) lol

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http://www.TriScottsdale.org

Can you post a video of your front lawn? Just so we can see if you’ve mowed it recently.

Maurice

My front yard is currently dirt.

I am finishing up the irrigation and will be putting in sod soon.

I ordered 2 weeks ago and was given a time frame of 16-18 days to the LBS and another few for them go build it. That was the time for Ultegra Di2, but regular Ultegra was May/June. I'm in Canada if that matters for anyone else.

I will say that having ordered mine in the 'stock red' colors and now seeing yours, I partly regret not going project one and doing a fade like this. That's one nice looking bike.

I remember the article Slowman posted about this a year or so ago. It seems he was right on the money with the shortage of bikes and components.

Nice looking and paint job.