I think it will be Feb.

It was interesting he said it would be hard for European and American's to train through the winter but it is fine for Aussie, Kiwi, South Africans and other Southern Hemisphere athletes to do this every year.

I'm qualified for both Kona and Taupo this year but I have my doubts it'll happen. I feel like it would be tough for pros to race Kona in both Feb and Oct in the same calendar year.

 
Why would that be tough for them? The races are 8 months apart.

I smiled at that too. FWIW then first IMNZ I did I was living in the UK so all my training was through winter. Some fairly miserable trainer rides (godfather DVDs came in handy), and even more miserable wet and cold rides (once had to stop riding and hide under a tree as the hail was so heavy and large it was literally too painful to ride into). But reality was the only issue I had was the wednesday before raceday was the first time I got to try my new wetsuit. And so on Thursday when I went to put it on for swim #2 it fell to pieces on the seams.

And second FWIW, living over here in NZ and hearing the discussions regarding the borders, I cannot believe there is any possibility for a November 70.3 in Taupo. They are potentially discussing some 'bubble' with the pacific islands and Oz to allow regional tourism/business. But as the Pacific Islands have so far managed to avoid any Covid cases, and the need for those islands to have connections to NZ for healthcare, food supplies and for movement of workforce from there to here, these are the routes they will prioritise.

So it's interesting that they say they have x,000 qualified. That's true. Will be interesting though how many can travel, and if they can choose to. For example i can still see quarantine requirements being in place for a long time, and so it's a big enough investment to go to the WC as it is, let alone with another 14 days off work/in a hotel when you get back. Or perhaps with 14 days before the race too.

Peaking / training / recovery cycles. a mid calendar year qualifying race, then a short recovery and maintain the peak for an October Kona is mentally / physically efficient. Trying to be at your peak for Kona in Feb, then how do you manage training/recovery qualification / peaking through to October? All whilst keeping the sponsors happy by being visible in races.

Hi Duncan,

I think they will be just fine getting to Kona twice and doing some other races, generally a lot of the top guys race Kona, then an Ironman early season to validate or qualify, then they go do Roth or maybe a European Championship before Kona the following year. Cam Wurf ( not the usual) did around 8 ironmans in one season. It wont be a problem. Some of the lower ranked athletes might find it tough but that is what happens for the lower ranked athletes anyway as it is hard to qualify. I appreciate your position, but respectfully disagree.

i'm hopeful conditions will allow for a november 70.3 in taupo but it will not be anything that could be considered a WC (except by american sport standards). maybe an oceana champs
at best it will require 14 days isolation either end of travel - who would do 28 days of isolation for such a trip?
i would think the same principles apply to kona but the US is taking a somewhat different approach to NZ so i'm less clear. i imagine IM would still call it WC if it was able to be held with only US athletes!

i'd say the real question is whether that level of travel and congregation will be possible in february

I tend to agree with Duncan. I don't think there is a high likelihood of us seeing 70.3 Worlds happen in New Zealand this year. Their leader seems to be taking things very seriously, as she should. They would need to lift the 2 week quarantine for visitors entering the country to make an event like this feasible. I do not see them doing that before a vaccine is available globally.

We need to keep in mind, both Hawaii and New Zealand were nations of peoples that were ravaged by viruses when European travelers arrived at their islands. The native populations were devastated and it wasn't THAT long ago that it happened. I would image that The State of Hawaii and the Nation of New Zealand will continue to be cautions when it comes to outside visitors or business peoples entering their state/country. Who could blame them?

All the best and I hope we can all race soon enough.

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Ironman Lake Placid 2021| 70.3 Worlds St. George 2021

There was an Ironman Championship in February before... back in 1982. Scott Tinley and Kathleen McCartney won it. Mainly Americans raced it without issue as it relates to their winter.

It would be a disaster to find accommodation in peak tourism season.
Next year is going to see huge number as people make up for lost travel this year.

Agree it may be likely nz isn't open although pre flight testing protocols and other measures may be in place prior enabling arrival and a shorter quarantine or none at all.

I doubt nz considers effect on Maori 150+ years ago re COVID its merely the idea that as a small island they have the chance to stop the virus coming in, and due to privacy law they can't do like Taiwan so it's basically closed borders and govt paid 14 days isolation in some hotel for arrivals at the moment. That may loosen a bit in a few months, depending on testing and ability to force tracking on ppl especially foreigners.

We're golden as long as they don't move Alpe d'Huez tri to February!!!!

Not just in 1982! Also 1981. At least 4 yanks on this board raced in it.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

They could just move it to Florida for some window in between Nov 2020 onwards. (could be pink font, but Florida and many parts of the US will open up before NZ from the sound of it). NZ is not going to want the rest of the world there from the sound of it, but minimally (I am not an American), the US can have a meaningful race with Americans only and the US likely will allow the rest of the world into the US before the Kiwis allow the rest of world into NZ.

The virus is all over the US, so its not like the rest of the world will bring "more" in. NZ is on their isolated island and can keep the rest of the world out and hope their national isolation can hold things to a vaccine before doing anything with the rest of the world. Likely, the US will do lots of normal things before a vaccine happens just because USA cannot close itself down forever and will trade off opening some aspects vs virus spread. Eventually everyone will get this either naturally or through a vaccine.

So Ironman will need to figure where they can initially have events where that path is supported (probably places talking about business events, youth sports, movies, then pro sports are places you want to think about eventually having 2000 person triathlons). It makes no sense to dream about 2000 person events where national governments want to keep people out of contact with each other for a long time.

Winter triathlon! I'm in.

Speed skate on Lac du Verney.
Skimo to the top and down to AdH
Run loop in town.

I'd be up for them moving it to February permanently.

The amount of tourism to the islands has changed dramatically since 1982.

To keep it in "off season" they would have to move it to April.

We did 2 in 1982 and there didn’t seem to an issue.

The main item I see in this picture is Budlight being a sponsor!

True, but wouldn't there be a significant negative impact to tourism still lingering in Feb 2021? This is a one-time thing, not permanently moving to February.

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Strava

There will be some loud voices saying that we need to let international tourists in again as that revenue is such a significant part of our economy. I suspect that they'll be drowned out by the voices that appreciate being on a safe island at the bottom of the world. Especially if the USA gets hit by a second wave at the start of winter.

Also, we can have a pretty meaningful race in Australasia without letting the rest of the world in. Just need a handful of Germans to be allowed in to be close to full WC strength ;-)

Pools opened in the Northern Territory today and I reckon Qld and in Western Oz are less than a month away from pools opening as well so it will be all systems go for training for the end of 2020 and the start of the 2020/21 season.If Ironman decide to hold Kona in Feb then you can expect a flood of pro triathletes to arrive here on the Sunshine Coast or up in Cairns towards the end of the year ( I reckon the Noosa Tri will go ahead as normal in October).The Queensland and NSW governments have already tweaked the immigration rules to allow the Auckland Warriors to fly between NZ and Oz for the upcoming Rugby League season as it has been deemed " work related travel" and so I could see foreign professional athletes from other sports being allowed into Oz as well.Now we wait for our Border Force to rubber stamp it.

On that note when Hawaii does not want anyone on their island Messick may jut need to move Kona 2020 to Australia in Feb 2021!!!!

All the people who have been saying that the Ironman World Championship needs to be rotated will finally have their dream. So give us a spot in Oz that you approve of!

On that note when Hawaii does not want anyone on their island Messick may jut need to move Kona 2020 to Australia in Feb 2021!!!!

All the people who have been saying that the Ironman World Championship needs to be rotated will finally have their dream. So give us a spot in Oz that you approve of![/quote]

.

Bring back the old Gold Coast World Cup Triathlon,Feb would be perfect.. :-)

Man you would be hard pressed to find a field so deep with late 80's legends than this race was..Allen,Scott,Tinley,Welch,Kiuru,Wells,Croft,Greg Stewart,Miles Stewart,Mike Pigg,Ray Browning,PNF,Moss,Fernanda

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYzDVOi-Sgk

Hell no. People are just waiting for the chance to book a vacation right now.

Run the race on Frankston, Ironman Melbourne course. The Rappster would agree?

Tangentially related to the Ironman WC in Taupo at the end of Nov., I found it interesting that the Professional Triathletes Organisation (PTO), USA Triathlon and Challenge North America very recently announced a middle distance "world championship" in Daytona, Florida. The event is scheduled to take place in early December 2020 (ie one week after Taupo) and, importantly, has a USD 1 million prize purse. Even if Taupo were to take place in November - and I don't think that it will - I would bet that most pros would skip it and go to Daytona for the possibility of a very big pay day.

https://www.teamusa.org/...nic-CHALLENGEDAYTONA

I think it will be Feb.//

Someone has been reading my forum posts from over a month ago, glad to have helped! And yes, a feb race would solve a lot of their problems, main one being making some big money at a time when a shitload is going down the drain. This is their marque event, and to miss a full year would be devastating. I'm just wondering if the sale deal of WTC has been inked as of yet, a lot of variables have been thrown into the equation that might upset that original deal. Kind of like being in escrow with your house, and it burns down before you close. Think the buyers would have something to say about the original deal.


Hopefully travel around the world will happen in some new form, and there will be protocols put in place so we can all move somewhat freely by then. It is going to be tough on island nations and states that depend on so much folks flying into their idyllic spots. NZ is down to 0 new homegrown cases, so they will certainly be very careful on how and who they let in, at least until there is a vaccine that can be validated. Maybe like when I did this race in NY harbor one year, had to have 3 shots verified before you could enter the race. Maybe you either have to prove through an antibody test you had it recently, or show your vaccine papers, I could see that happening..

The Queensland and NSW governments have already tweaked the immigration rules to allow the Auckland Warriors to fly between NZ and Oz

Not quite. The will fly to Oz and remain there for the remainder of the season. They will not be criss-crossing the Tasman.

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Trust me I’m a doctor!
Well, I have a PhD :-)

And will be in quarantine for 14 days on arrival.

They will be in quarantine training camp so not quite like all the other quarantine travellers in Oz and the Oz/NZ travel bubble will come into effect well before the season is done.I reckon these guys will be back at home training and hosting games in July..

https://www.nrl.com/...ing-it-to-australia/

Hopefully we have an NZ/Oz bubble going by September so I can unleash Teresa on Cairns to break the record for a 3rd year in a row. Her time there looking a bit soft compared to WA and NZ. She wouldn't be the only Kiwi keen to go race.

From the NZ perspective - 40% of Tourism comes from Oz, so opening up to that and encouraging internal tourism would mean that tourism revenues climbed back to a healthy percentage of the past levels. I wouldn't be surprised if we figure that's enough to be going on with until the rest of the world is more sorted.

.

With the low COVID figures in both countries I reckon there will be pressure to try and save somethings for the ski industry as we are five weeks away from our official ski season starting.The South Australian Gov't has said today, after no new cases for 10 days, that they are looking at starting sport on all levels as soon as they can,most likely with the local SA Football comp..At some stage the government will have to make a decision to restart and Triathlon Australia is working with the powers at be with a tentative October 1st kick off date.We may just see a Sept race in Cairns yet.

Hey while you are having both Ironman and 70.3 World's between Aussies and Kiwis, I suggest you guys just have a T20 World Cup in Nov with the same two teams as the rest of the world end up being largely redundant haha!!!

Good news about things getting going. Interesting you mention your ski industry. Here they lost some really good revenue weeks at the back end of the season when everything got frozen.

I wish this would be true for Hawai'i, unfortunately, Hawaiians do not lead Hawai'i and the recent example of the TMT controversy would suggest that the leaders do not care about the history of Native Hawaiians. And you are right, there are Native Hawaiian groups that have been linking the attitude of recently careless tourists to colonizers so this is being talked about quite a bit right now.

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

Err... you excluding the current 1 day world champions then to give the Crims a chance of getting to the final ?

haha good catch....2015 finals was Kiwis and Aussies....2016 T20 finals England and WIndies, 2019 finals England vs Kiwis (OK fine, we'll give England some credit but that 2016 finals at Eden Gardens was kind of priceless with Brathwaite's miracle finish : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQSb1J9sodk)

OK back to triathlon, anyone think the Kiwis will open up their Island any time before next March...if not there may be other places stepping up for the 70.3 World's. I bet Dubai would happily step up in Feb 2021.

I just like the way we lost 300 million Americans with this one back-and-forth 😁

To your real question.
Next March ?
Doubt it beyond Aus and some nearby islands.
Unless the economic hurt gets to a point where they have to.
Hope I'm totally wrong tho.

Yeah, it just does not feel like the Kiwis will open up fast enough that Ironman can bank on them holding a 70.3 WC. Messick likely needs to find another favourable spot that is more likely to open tro travel.

The other side is travellers from their home countries. Even if the destination for the 70.3 WC does not require 2 week quarantine there is the issue of what athlete do when they return home. Eventually that will go away because business can't operate when each time someone gets on a plane they have to do a 2 week quarantine when they arrive and then 2 more weeks when they return home. So until that stuff disappears, there won't be any 70.3 WC other than people from a single country (or a tight bubble of countries playing).

yeah, i think the whole concept of world champs will need to be set aside for quite some time. we will hopefully be able to have some big events in the not too distant future where athletes from a small number of countries/regions can compete but i can't see there being any ability for a true whole world accessible event anytime soon. the logistics of travel and hosting in the covid climate are just too difficult

cycling is to some extent an exception in that most of the pro cyclists are resident in europe during the season anyway so if europe can open up as a region then it will be close enough to carry the WC label

nz and aus are likely to be victims of our own success in that we have a genuine opportunity to virtually eliminate the virus which means we will then be ultra cautious about letting it back in (until there is a proven vaccine and/or instant pre-symptom test). europe and USA seem like control rather than elimination is the only practical objective which actually leaves you more room to open up without compromising your overall status

"Let me be clear, we will not be having open borders with the rest of the world for quite some considerable length of time." Prime minister of NZ speaking just now in relation to a discussion of creating a trans tasman (ie NZ and Aus) travel bubble. Was then followed by a very earnest facial expression to convey 'long time - serious' before flicking back to smiley politician to take next question.

Well she's not being wholly truthful with that statement. They have ships coming in to offload cargo on the daily. But business and tourism, yeah probably.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

It's not open borders - crew aren't allowed off ships unless they go into 14 day isolation, or (more likely) have been at sea for 14 days since last port and therefore have done their isolation whilst travelling/sailing.

Why this is a bad idea.

Fall races will likely not happen even if things are better world travel and movement will stop many races and communities will not want outsider ( countries with high #'s, america) to come in. So New Zealand will not want to risk their citizens for a triathlon. Kona will not likely want mainlanders coming in either if the situation is still similar to today.

The Kona, in which I am qualified for. I live in Vancouver Canada and even though we get the best winter weather I would rather move to 2021 then train in Nov, Dec, Jan is the cold, dark, wet seasons to prepare for a race in a hot, sunny, humid location. So if they give people the option to move they will be putting on a race with on income. not very cost effective for a private company.

The pro race. The cost of just a pro race is the bigger waste of money. Ironman doesn't get paid by NBC to put the race on TV they Pay NBC for that spot like a commercial. Therefore Ironman would be paying pro prize purse and NBC plus the operation costs for a one time t.v. show watched by the people that already did the race or watched it on facebook. Big waste of money rather then moving the money into bigger future events.

Ironman is slow to cancel out of finical self interest and likely due to wanting cities or communities to cancel so they maintain there guaranteed pay to put the event on. If they pull out early before a declared city cancellation they likely lose that money. We are just stuck in the middle.

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Technique will always last longer then energy production. Improve biomechanics, improve performance.
http://Www.anthonytoth.ca, triathletetoth@twitter

Looks like we’re going to have an answer by the end of May.

https://www.asiatri.com/...l-they-push-through/

Yeah, I think pretty well rest of world other than some islands (minus UK) will resume things with the virus floating around. NZ and Aus will have to acccept it at some point, and let it in and resume with rest of world, or stay in isolation waiting for a vaccine. I would think they will settle for the latter which makes complete sense.

Bottom line given that, Messick either rolls with a 70.3 WC with Kiwis only, or moves it somewhere else on a slightly different date that has an incentive to resume things

ironman was held in february in kona in 1981 and 1982. presumably it was held in feb from 1978 thru 1980 as well, when it was on oahu. i was living in reno in 1980 and 81, which has a boulder-like climate. definitely snows in the winter. none of us really thought about the seasonality of it back then. we just trained for it and did it. i don't remember being put out about the weather and that was before any luxuries for indoor cycling beyond a set of rollers. personally, i would like to see a reprise of the 1982 year, when IM was held twice, in feb and in oct. it would be the 40th anniversary of the first event in kona, held in the same month as that race back then.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

..
So,given that our PM has said there will be a continued freeze on international travel until the end of the year and this week both our PM and the Kiwi PM agreed in principle, that there will be a OZ/NZ travel bubble in the next few months,you can bet that the Taupo Worlds are done.

Budweiser Light.

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

I am aware of all that history.

But just because others have done it doesn't mean I want to, they make mint chocolate ice cream doesn't mean I have to like it just because it is there. There is a reason it isn't in Feb any more!!!

Of course Slowtwitch would love 4 or more kona's a year to help your product. The race has only downsides for me in February. And I am sure many others as well. And maybe it is better for some too.

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Technique will always last longer then energy production. Improve biomechanics, improve performance.
http://Www.anthonytoth.ca, triathletetoth@twitter

Yeah, I'm the opposite of you. I live in Houston and it's absolutely dreadful to train through the summer for fall races so I am done trying to qualify for Kona again. The training is just not fun and I do this for fun.

But if it was in February or March/April every year!?! Sign me up! I could do a spring race one year to qualify then do Kona the next spring. I'm tempted to try and qualify for this Feb Kona, but that would mean I'd have to do a full this fall so that's probably not happening.

do you know the reason it isn't in feb anymore?

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

How about moving the WC to Florida or some other nutty state that wants to re-open really fast?

Isn’t February the peak tourist season in Hawaii? Do they really need the extra influx of people then? Relying on that small community to open up seems overly wishful. If October doesn’t work in Kona, how much more likely is that February will?

They ran out of mint chocolate chip ice cream and had to either switch it maple walnut or move the race to October.

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Technique will always last longer then energy production. Improve biomechanics, improve performance.
http://Www.anthonytoth.ca, triathletetoth@twitter

Sean.... you are crazy. I have no desire to train for a February Ironman. Even in south florida's beautiful winter.

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blog

My google kung-fu say:

- In an assist to athletes from colder climates, the race is moved to October.

- because it's busy AF in Hawaii in February
- because it's the middle of winter for the majority of athletes, but specifically Ironman is very US-centric and prioritizes US based athletes
- the ocean is pounding with winter swells in february

Did I miss any?

the day before the race in 1981, the race could not have been held. i stood on dig me beach, watching john howard swim. or try to swim. he was basically swimming in a very, very large endless pool, swimming for sure, but staying in one place because of the wind and the current.

monty raced that race in 1981 and he kept racing whereas i didnt'. he'll have input on this. but i believe it was primarily because, per george kostanza, "the sea was angry that day my friends."

that said, i'd still like to see a feb kona reprised for 1 year.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

Umm, so that's not resulted in IMNZ moving from March each year. It's either scorching hot or pissing down and freezing cold, and you never know which until 24hours before. Day of the race in 2012 there was someone surfing in the 6 foot waves* I on the otherhand was struggling to be able to stand upright on a footpath looking at said Darwin award candidate given the 140kph wind. Contrast with still having a visible dark patch of skin from the sunburn from March 2019 where there was a gap between my two piece and the sun fried me.

All we did is come back next day and do a 70.3. Seriously, it's called Ironman not Preciouslittleknittingfairyman. HTFU and if occasionally people need to adapt, so be it and that includes Hawaii. - Format pink as needed to prevent friction burns from any panty bunching.



*whilst 6 foot waves may not seem that extreme, you have to factor this into Taupo being inland and the swim is in a lake.

So it wasn't the mint chocolate chip ice cream???

I don't want to race in that I am small thin and efficient I would freeze. I am cold enough in a hot summer morning in Canada. I can barley manage an easy swim in a 18 Celsius pool without shaking already this would kill me.

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Technique will always last longer then energy production. Improve biomechanics, improve performance.
http://Www.anthonytoth.ca, triathletetoth@twitter

I am pretty sure the Superbowl is busy for the NFL and media too. But it draws much more business and pays the bills better then the preseason game in Jacksonville.

And you may not even get that this year?

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Technique will always last longer then energy production. Improve biomechanics, improve performance.
http://Www.anthonytoth.ca, triathletetoth@twitter

I think there was another poster who said something about peak season in Hawai'i, unfortunately this is incorrect and the data is public, easy to access and shows the peaks months, in order of average over the last 20ish years being July, August, December, March, June, January. February is 7th. I know everyone says February is whale season but they mean the whales in the sea, not on the beach.

ETA: Here's the link

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

..
I remember doing IMNZ in Auckland in Feb 1995 and the swells in St Heliers Bay were so big you had to wait until you were at the top of each swell to sight anything at all.You could actually feel yourself swimming up and downhill just like a surf swimming session, it was awesome! What wasn't awesome was the wind and the temperature on the bike as I had come from Cairns and for me it was colder than a cold winters day in Nth Queensland. No way the current Ironman safety rules would allow a swim like that.

Yup:
July - weddings
August - weddings
December - Christmas
March - spring break
June - end of school year?
January - continuation of Christmas break

February is ok but not as good as April or October. Hawaii doesn't need events except in the rare low points in visitors.... which is October.

A month out form this year's race (Ie February for those thinking 70.3WC could move to Feb in NZ) we were in Taupo for an IM training weekend. Full bike saturday, then a sprint tri race Sunday in Kinlock - next village around 10km to the west on the lake.

Saturday was in mid 30s on the bike but still with strong crosswinds. Was awful ride, worst I've had.

Sunday in the lake was as you said, you couldn't see the 3 buoys marking out the course for the 2 lap swim! 1.5-2m swell. And I'm used to training in the ocean as I live on the coast, but that was a real rough swim.

So summary here. 70.3NZ 2020 - not likely due to travel restrictions. 70.3 WC moved to Autumn in NZ (Feb/March)? I'll be honest I am not sure. The scale of the event means all the accommodation anywhere near Taupo was well and truly booked up. Impossible to run at same time as the March Ironman due to this, without reducing the scale of both (may happen anyway). And there's the risks of tropical storms at that time of year. A real shame as Taupo is a beautiful place to race. The whole town is really supportive, and they know how to put on a good show there. But.....I think events have transpired way outside anything people could have planned for and so I'd hope for a 2022 Taupo 70.3 WC in November and perhaps not have a 2021. Given teh disruption to qualifying and training then it would be a lottery anyway.

I think it will be Feb.


The problem with a NORMAL February, is that almost EVERY bed up and down the Kona Coast is booked out! So how would you add the 10,000 - 20,000 people that IM brings to town!!

My wife and I discovered this last Feb (2019), when we went over there for an extended stay for the first time at that time of the year*, NOT in October for IRONMAN. We were surprised, but it does make sense. It's the middle of winter and prime-time for those in North America to escape winter for instant summer in Hawaii!

Now, next February will be anything but "normal". So MAYBE this will work. Many hotspot tourism and travel destinations, will have been absolutely hammered by the COVID-19 situation, and with an expected reluctance of people to jump back on planes and travel internationally, when things do open back up, this could be a great coup for IM and Kona/Hawaii Tourism to work together. This is of course assuming that borders will be open by this time, and that the State of Hawaii will allow for tourists to come back!!

*Another surprise was the weather in February on the Kona Coast. It was slightly cooler, with less humidity, and the winds were less strong and unpredictable. I had laughed at people that told me they have "seasons" in Hawaii, but I can confirm they do!! :-)

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Definitely a huge worry if you cant get hotels, Ironmans always work to fill a low season gap in tourism, never are they in towns in peak season.

They better move it to Cairns and start the rotation Cairns- Frankfurt- kona :-)

that'll be the third wave. Second wave will appear in a couple of weeks, as the restrictions are lifted too soon, without adequate prophylactic measures. Masks are still optional in most of the US.
That won't be a wave so much as another bump up - US cases are not dropping off.

USA is going to be a charnel house of infection up until there's an effective vaccine, or a miracle happens. Those may be the same thing.
So my guess is two years before NZ lifts quarantine requirements for US visitors. On the plus side, this will probably prevent anti-vaxers from traveling internationally in the future..

I didn't say third wave as I was trying to avoid being too negative about the state of the USA...
It's hard to see NZ opening borders any time soon, with the possible exception of tech billionaires running to their bunkers in the south island because we'll need the revenue from HNW citizenship buying.

LOL. So no negativity but full speed cynicism.

I really need to catchup with you for a beer/coffee once we're into Level 1 and allowed to travel around NZ. Shall we pencil that in for sometime 2023?

Well the numbers don't really vary much from 6th place January all the way down to 10th place October, avgs are 628k down to 608k respectively. November is 11th at 595k and Sept is the worst at 570k. Maybe October is bumped a bit by Ironman (guessing that's what 5-8k people for the event?), keep in mind these are statewide stats, they don't allow a filter by month for specific islands and airports. I think you can even filter the stats for purposes of travel and where the travel was from so lots to dig into, too much for me right now because I'm lazy :)

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

I'm fine with being cynical about my own country. Just don't want to be impolite about others.

Our score today is 1 (thus this week is 0,0,2,1 for new cases and 1 death) - I'm hopeful of level 1 not being too far away.

OMG I just posted the evidence for this NOT being true. February is NOT a peak month for tourism, not by a long shot.

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

February is NOT a peak month for tourism, not by a long shot.


OK. Perhaps OUR situation was a one-off, for Feb. 2019!

I was told by other locals when we were there that February is usually a VERY busy month.

As always, your mileage may vary! :-)

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Right. I mean the only thing I can think of is that February is often touted as peak whale viewing but that's not just Kona. Maybe it's just a great time for us triathletes to go? ( I did choose February to get hitched in Kona) and all the places you looked at are typical triathlete spots :) but other than that, I can't think of it. I grew up in Hilo so I knew the better times to hit Hapuna beach, February and September were great as it was after school started so tourists were less frequent

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

 
If this happened 10 years ago - Cameron Brown would be World Champion.

That's all I have to add.

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http://www.sweat7.com
Facebook Page: Sweat7
Twitter: @sweat7coaching

Well in my book Cam is World Champion in M45-49. He would easily beat that guy Alexandre Vinokourov anyway.

ha. who's being cynical now ?

Andy Slavitt had a good thread on everything we are not doing, https://twitter.com/.../1258166483085033472

Already Quailified (Wisconsin 2019)and booked a condo in Alíi Drive. The Condo Owners has no problem in reallocate me in February

I believe I predicted Taupo cancellation back in March 30th thread.

https://forum.slowtwitch.com/...tring=taupo#p7185358

But then I had bought a supply of N95 respirators back in January...

ha. who's being cynical now ?

Andy Slavitt had a good thread on everything we are not doing, https://twitter.com/.../1258166483085033472



The view from Canada - with apologies to all of my American friends - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/...then-stay-home-love/

Of course Slavitt is 100% correct. But things are SO politically polarized in the U.S. right now, that as soon as you even mention Obama's name, no matter what, anything you have to say is immediately completely trashed, by nearly half the population.

Other countries that have done "well" against the COVID-19 Crisis, have more or less put politics and partisanship aside - there is a pattern. I see this in my own province in Canada. The Premier of Ontario, Doug Ford, is about as far right, a Conservative as you can go in Canada and still get elected. The Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, is a left of center Liberal. Just last fall they were trading political barbs at one another. Openly sniping each other in the media. Since this whole thing hit - they have been absolutely on the same page! You see this all across the country - every province all in line with what has been going on federally in Ottawa.

Has there been disagreements and hiccups, for sure - this thing has moved so fast, and rendered so much change, for so many, however, the bottom line has been to again, put politics and partisanship aside, and work for the common good of the whole of the country and all citizens.

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

The Premier of Ontario, Doug Ford, is about as far right, a Conservative as you can go in Canada and still get elected. The Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, is a left of center Liberal. Just last fall they were trading political barbs at one another. Openly sniping each other in the media. Since this whole thing hit - they have been absolutely on the same page! //

But what if their positions were reversed, you think the same outcome? Because that is what we have here, the clown running the show. But imagine if CA or NY's governor was the president, and Trump the governor, perhaps we would be the same as you then..

Is there any video of Vino getting booed at the awards last year?

I live in Alaska and everyone (slight exaggeration) goes to Hawaii in February. I cannot speak for the rest of the world, but that month all flights out of Anchorage might as well go straight to Hawaii.

Steve, that Globe and Mail is typical Canadian smugness towards Americans. If any Canadians look at the real numbers, just take out New York New Jersey, Mass and for the other 47 states Canada is generally doing worse than the average. I don't think our prime minister and premiers are doing that much better than many US governors.

All the numbers for USA get skewed by 3 states that accrued 40,000 deaths. Take them out and the other 47 states are the source of the other 40,000. On that math, rest of USA is much better than almost all of Europe and Canada.

I didn't find the article to be at all smug. It said "While Canada looks good compared with the U.S., other countries rank well ahead of us. "
If you want to take out 3 of the hardest hit states and then compare statistics then why not take out Quebec as well?

I guess because Canada has a lot of coordination at the Federal + Provincial level where as the USA does not have coordination between Federal and states to anywhere close to the same degree. In terms of the writer of the article being smug about what is going in Canada vs the USA, well he did sweep the entire US with a massive brush in terms of its potential impact on Canada, which is why I said, it does not make sense. A trucker bringing goods across the border at Washington state to BC has no where the same impact as trucks crossing at Windsor-Detroit for automotive industry.

In any case. Canada is not a superhero nation at fighting this. Australia, South Africa, Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Kenya, UAE....all doing way better and with our advanced notice going in relative to Iran and Europe, we're not coming out of this and dropping off numbers like the hardest hit European nations (or Iran)....so careful about how much we pat ourselves on the back. We had 2 months advanced notice on China and surpassed China in deaths yesterday and we MAY pass Iran in 10 days.

A month ago we were 1:5 ratio vs Sweden on deaths per 1M and now we are closing that gap and down to 2.47:1 while we acquired a quarter trillion of debt in the last 6 weeks. Sweden and Canada both had their 1000th death on April 14th yet we have now blown past in absolute and ratio. Our deaths per million are blowing well past Florida on deaths per million after they opened up and are massively larger than Texas (partially open) and California

Maybe our overall Canadian strategy will pan out strongly a year from now or even months from now. I actually trust it will because largely our population is good at conforming and we the financial depth to take some care of the poor who can also access health care (thank you (thanks Prime Minister Pearson for your 1965 election platform for universal medicare...we're benefiting).

I don't think anyone really has the final number on all jurisdictions but these articles questioning other countries are not helpful while patting ourselves on the back. Whats good in Canada in most areas we ended up with a decent ICU capacity, but it also meant scheduled surgeries from which people would potentially end up initially in ICU have all been deferred and some have died from not getting surgeried , while we had capacity at hand.

Lots of Canadians are questioning US strategy (like in this article), but if you look state by state, most states are doing better than Canada. Sure, if you want to take Quebec and Ontario out do compare your province with a US state. It should look pretty good which is why many provinces are opening back up.

What hurt Quebec and Ontario the most is our strong connections with the USA North East and the timing of spring breaks. But we can't benefit from our connection to them in good times while blaming them in bad times...and our tight connections with UK and France too. First place when flights come back in Toronto or Montreal.

We will need all those connections and more to the US North East and Europe for the economic recovery side. The article is like New Zealand wanting to keep the rest of the world out. We have to work with the USA. Its not an option. Other counties can choose long term isolation. We have too many people that the place will just collapse under the financial load of not working with the USA. Imagine if California stopped working with the rest of USA and that's the equivalent of what this guy is ranting about.

Much can change in the next 4-5 months for the IMWC but why on earth would anyone go to Hawaii right now?

Will the 14 day quarantine be the policy at the end of September and early October? Maybe, maybe not. Definitely a heck of an obstacle.

https://www.cnn.com/...uarantine/index.html

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Hawaii is fucked unless they end the quarantine policy. The whole state relies on tourism for the majority of revenue and employment.