Best of Luck today Dev! Glad to see you back out there racing.

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-Brad Williams
Website | Twitter: @BW_Tri |Instagram: @BW_Tri | Strava | Co-Founder & Coach at: KIS Coaching
Partnered with: Zoot Sports | Precision Fuel &Hydration | ISM

Im still waiting for the isle95 radio feed to work for the race :)

Seems to be working now hopefully they will have raceday coverage when they wake up!

http://www.mainstreamnetwork.com/...station=wjkc-fm&

Did anyone here that Lance Armstrong is racing in St Criox?


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Yup - but unless you're there you sure as hell won't see it. One day WTC will catch up with the play...

That's okay,probrably won't miss much as I read some stuff from a bunch of triathlon experts in a forum I joined that he will never make it as a triathlete because he once used a kettlebell for some strength training...


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Jokes aside - that picture of the umbrellas was pretty interesting...

(Gonna be a long night)

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Well it is raining so the RD probrably gave the option of racing with an umbrella...It's called "The Mary Poppins Division".


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Top 10 Men - Swim End

1 24:29 2 ANDY POTTS USA
2 24:31 0:03 19 STEPHANE POULAT FRA
3 25:43 1:15 22 EDGARDO OMAR VELEZ PRT
4 25:45 1:17 15 ANDRES CASTILLO COL
5 25:48 1:20 5 FREDERIK VAN LIERDE BEL
6 25:49 1:21 3 TERENZO BOZZONE NZL
7 25:51 1:23 7 LANCE ARMSTRONG USA
8 27:20 2:52 23 GRANT BURWASH USA
9 27:22 2:54 11 ALESSANDRO DEGASPERI ITA
10 27:25 2:56 1 MAXIM KRIAT UKR

who?

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-Of course it's 'effing hard, it's IRONMAN!
Team ZOOT
ZOOT, QR, Garmin, HED Wheels, Zealios, FormSwim, Precision Hydration, Rudy Project

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You know,that dude who stepped on the moon..

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Paul, good luck...hope you have a good race and enjoy your day!

The live feed on "Isle 95" isn't that much worse that the Hawaii coverage on IMLive... ;)

It sounds like a bunch of their regular "news" crew seeing a "triathalon" for the first time.
Brad

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3SIXTY5cycling.com

Just back from the Beast. Lance was about 15 seconds behind about halfway up.

Just heard on "Isle 95" radio, Lance has a 1 min lead @ mile 45, but the coverage is hilarious. "Lance is going all tour de france on these guys..."

Brad

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3SIXTY5cycling.com

Just hear Lance has 7 mins lead on the bike?

@JimmyRiccitello
Top of Lowery Hill (4 miles to the finish) - Lance looks great and has a 1:50 lead on Potts

He was up 7 on those in 4th-10th place. Potts and Poulat are 2:00 or so behind.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

I just woke up.....could not roll out of bed with out damage like that to the keel of a sail boat in shallow water. I see a post about Lance and know - that the fan boys -who have the same issue with wood rather than evacuating urine - are searching for some lotion to evacuate "the boys".

I so so so so so so so hope he gets a drafting call.

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What if the Hokey Pokey is what it is all about?

they should just put a mic next to the announcers stand and let it rip for the remainder of the race.

Potts should be able to run him down I would think

Since he is in the lead, I find the odds of this unlikely.

Can Potts really run Lance down?

T2 pic - Lance opted to wear a road helmet today. Perhaps that Giro Selector helmet was alittle too hot under that head of his ;-)

Top 3 are off the bike.

Lance is 1:45 up on Potts and a couple up on Stephane Poulat.
They're over 5 minutes up on 4th place.

Poulat and Potts are sub 1:15 guys. Lance's 1:18 won't do it today...

Angela Naeth leading Mary Beth Ellis by over a minute in the women's race.

Brad

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3SIXTY5cycling.com

I'm really impressed with the radio coverage -- these guys did their homework. They're giving out splits, are familiar with the leaders and their strengths, and have some colorful commentary. Are they triathletes themselves? They even know how to pronounce Bozzone properly!

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Sponsored by -- Whoever tips at my coffee shop

Ha ha ha ha ha ha!!!!

Yes, Lance will get run down. You have to remember this is sorta like that Rocky -vs- the Russian movie....no way the Tri guys are gong to not give even more than ever to whoop Lance.

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What if the Hokey Pokey is what it is all about?

He ran 1:15 at oceanside. It really depends on how much both put out on the bike, but Potts should be the stronger runner

yeah potts 'should be capable,' but did he bike to hard?

and, Lance told me that he was going to wear a road helmet today just to piss off every aero geek on slowtwitch.

Run split coming.....and I hate it when they call it "70.3 Ironman"...it is a damn HALF


Note: its raining

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What if the Hokey Pokey is what it is all about?

Note: according to the radio 14 miles is the new run distance.

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What if the Hokey Pokey is what it is all about?

I rescind my last post

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Sponsored by -- Whoever tips at my coffee shop

Lance was - 3:34 ahead at T2

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What if the Hokey Pokey is what it is all about?

Doubtful. "Does anyone know how far the run is in one of these 70.3 things? I can't find my stat paper." As spoken by the lead lady announcer. No one had an immediate answer.

I'm not upset with the feed. I just found that quote giggle-worthy.

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---

---

Take a short break from ST and read my blog:
http://tri-banter.blogspot.com/

Potts should be able to outrun Lance if (and that's a big IF) he didn't overdo it on the bike. I have a feeling he went a little out of his comfort zone on the bike to keep Lance in check. We shall see.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Sounds like Lance was out of transition prior to Potts entering, I think those splits are suspect.

I really hope that cyclops sends a letter to WTC regarding the change from 13.1 to 14 miles.

Just at 2min ahead....Potts is going to take it.

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What if the Hokey Pokey is what it is all about?

half of what?

it sure aint half the intensity. the distance is 70.3 and most people would prefer it to be called just that because it sure.

I would prefer to call triathlons most popular distances:

70.3 is the new Olympic and there is no reason why 70.3 can't be in the olympics.

And, from what I hear, 40 is the new 20.

Potts and Frenchie are running together - 1:50 behind

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What if the Hokey Pokey is what it is all about?

"the course record for the bike is 2:19.. from 2008, mario van hoenacker. lance rode, today, 2:48... quite a difference. these conditions have slowed him down a bit" 7 time tdf winner is 29 minutes slower...

hilarious. they know nothing about the sport.. oh well, they are trying..

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All you need is a dollar and a dream..and a severe f*&%ing beating!!

They're trying hard, but have no idea what they are doing. The main guy is mixing bike segment splits with race splits.

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if only these splits were reliable. 1:45 to 3:34 back to 1:50 in the span of 2 miles.

uh.... no. they are a mess but it adds color..

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All you need is a dollar and a dream..and a severe f*&%ing beating!!

Next they will come on saying LA set a new swim course record of 0:00

Transition skills ;-)

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What if the Hokey Pokey is what it is all about?

unless Lance stopped to take a dump, I don't see a 1+ minute difference in T2.

they are pronouncing poulat correct, instead of, pou-lay (french for chicken). the one thing they have nailed down today. yes, waiting for lance's 0:00 swim finish and full marathon splits of 1:15 - 1:20, since they only say ironman as opposed to half..

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All you need is a dollar and a dream..and a severe f*&%ing beating!!

Ummm... Sure. I bet you love the IM Live coverage too.

I will agree, they are giving out splits. Incorrect ones, but splits none the less. And their commentary is indeed "colorful".
Brad

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3SIXTY5cycling.com

Mile four - Lance is up Potts is ahead of Poulat - 1:25 down



Jimmy sounds like I can hear his eyes rolling.

"In a rim and a prayer"

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What if the Hokey Pokey is what it is all about?

"She's running on a rim and a prayer." RE: Angela Naeth having a flat tire and continuing to ride. Awesome!

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---

---

Take a short break from ST and read my blog:
http://tri-banter.blogspot.com/

So what are the chances Potts fried his legs on the bike and won't catch?

More importantly in the women's end of things keep an eye on this up and comer:
http://www.jennyfletcher.com/
she was 6th out of the water ... and worth watching

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- Pete

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Luckily my over eating disorder is offset by my over exercising disorder

This has got to be the #1 day online for that radio station.

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What if the Hokey Pokey is what it is all about?

LOL. Yeah, tomorrow they start selling ad time based on today's numbers...

Brad

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3SIXTY5cycling.com

go Dev! I'm really excited for you.

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

I think that the radio station people should do all the races - seriously, they make it more fun.

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What if the Hokey Pokey is what it is all about?

Not anymore... He's poo-lay now...
Brad

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3SIXTY5cycling.com

I love it... the old man finds a way to catch on to the tail end of the main pack again!

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Gotta give credits to the old Lance. He's beating up on the young guys.

sounds like from race radio that the catch is about to happen... Potts is 40sec down.

While we're handing it to Lance we also should hand it to Potts... that guy wins every race he enters from half IM to big $$ olympic distance races.

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

POO - lat!

Potts closing in...gonna be close.

passed him

and 4 miles to go still?

Yes his safe for a Top 3 place...decent points today being a P-750 race

Wow...didn't think Potts was going to run LA (with a 2 min lead) down. Is this indicative of how good a runner Potts is or how LA is not quite in the top tier for running at pro level? (Excuse my ignorance).

This changes everything.

"Is that right, Jimmy John? John Jimmy? uh..."


OMG

Both

did she just reply to people responding to her on fb, giving them the radio url over the radio? omg! "big ups" now just turn it over to jimmy jon john jims teddy pooh

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All you need is a dollar and a dream..and a severe f*&%ing beating!!

"Lance, thank you thank you thank you for all you do for the... uh and the cancer."

LOL

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3SIXTY5cycling.com

1 4:03:31 2 ANDY POTTS USA 24:29 2:26:13 1:12:50 31:04 41:47
2 4:05:25 19 STEPHANE POULAT FRA 24:31 2:26:17 1:14:38 31:10 43:29
3 4:07:08 7 LANCE ARMSTRONG USA 25:51 2:22:39 1:18:38 32:14 46:24

Typical slowtwitch...thread devolves into flaming the coverage. Excellent job folks! You are all aces!


.

I thought that was funny to listen to also.


]"Lance, thank you thank you thank you for all you do for the... MEDIA....uh and the cancer."

Who was 4th.

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http://www.TriathlonShots.com
Full event coverage of triathlon/ironman in photos.

Actually, I enjoyed it more than the normal coverage we get. I liked the fact they didn't know everything and goofed stuff up. It had that island vibe and was fun to listen to. You could hear the excitement in their voices.

Aaaad, it never dropped the signal like some of the other professional organization's "coverage".

Brad

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3SIXTY5cycling.com

Damn, slept in with Mrs. btmoney and missed the whole race. Was it worth it? You betcha.

Kudos to Potts and Poulat. And Lance, you gotta start running faster bro. The target on his back is big and bright when he comes off the bike in the lead.

1:12:50 run by Potts. Absolutely flying

Well I know for sure from today that Lance can't win Kona.
His run sucks big time against the top Pro's.

He's done much better in the races he's done so far than I expected. Seems like having Lieto off the front with him on the bike like in Panama is his best bet for putting together a complete race

Yes but he will be in the lead on the run for the first 10-20kms so plenty of airtime for him/his charity. He will jsut need to hang on in the run and if he can hold onto a top 10 it will be a super result. Top 20 will also be pretty good.

---

http://www.TriathlonShots.com
Full event coverage of triathlon/ironman in photos.

Amazing how someone that sucks at running finishes up 3rd ;-) Beating previous champs BOZZONE, KRIAT


At least he beat FREDERIK VAN LIERDE he will race at ironman france today by 9minutes.

Yup - a 1:18 off the bike "sucks big time".

It's not like he "Bjorned" it out there today (sorry, Bjorn) - and I'd imagine there's still room for improvement.

3rd in a tough race against a good field is more than respectable.
Regardless of the athlete's first name.

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float , hammer , and jog

What was Bozzone's time? I did not see him in the results.

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________________
Adrian in Vancouver

At least he beat FREDERIK VAN LIERDE he will race at ironman france today by 9minutes

Word.

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**All of these words finding themselves together were greatly astonished and delighted for assuredly, they had never met before**

5 BOZZONE, TERENZO 4:10:04

Unreal... He had an amazing race today. I was surprised that he was able to stay so close on the bike.

I am not a Lance fan, but that is pretty doggone impressive. I wish I had that kind of skill.

Hi all:

A huge congratulations to my friend Dev Paul on his performance at St. Croix this morning. I just got off the phone with Dev. He is very happy and back in the win column, ready to start another 20 year streak of finishes. He was worried about his run but had a great run. He held back a little on the bike, as it was pissing rain the whole ride, paid off on the run.

Dev you are back (not sure you where ever gone) and we look forward to the RR. Congrats and relish your result!!!!!

B
DEVASHISH PAULBIBAGESTATE/COUNTRYPROFESSION35047Ottawa ON CANSWIMBIKERUNOVERALLRANKDIV.POS.36:082:53:511:34:045:04:03907
LEGDISTANCEPACERANKDIV.POS.TOTAL SWIM1.2 mi. (36:08)1:54/100m17719
TOTAL BIKE56 mi. (2:53:51)19.33 mph10912
RUN SPLIT 1: 6.55 mi6.55 mi (41:23)6:19/miRUN SPLIT 2: 13.1 mi6.55 mi (52:41)8:02/miTOTAL RUN13.1 mi (1:34:04)7:10/mi907 TRANSITIONTIMET1: SWIM-TO-BIKE--:--T2: BIKE-TO-RUN--:--

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Barry Dmitruk
2017: Florida 70.3 (done); Mont Tremblant 70.3 & Ironman

AWESOME work Dev!!!

Wow, if not for the ML-esque swim there, that'd be a killer outing for you, not even factoring in this whole past year.

In light of that - it's borderline unbelievable.

Congrats!!!

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float , hammer , and jog

Say what you want about him, but he's got the PR end of this covered, doesn't he...

Lance Armstrong�@lancearmstrong
And one big shout out/thank you to all the amazing volunteers. Races like this wouldn't be possible without you all.

1hLance Armstrong�@lancearmstrong
Thank you everyone here in St. Croix for supporting this event year after year. Glad to be back 24 yrs later. Beautiful spot you got here.
1hLance Armstrong�@lancearmstrong

My oh my, that was a doozy. Congrats to @andy_potts on his tremendous win. Homeboy ran like a gazelle.

Thank the venue, volunteers and your competitors. Checked all the boxes.
Brad

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3SIXTY5cycling.com

For a guy who had to be paced to a 2:59 open marathon by German Silva and Joan Benoit-Samuelson, I am pretty damn impressed by his 1:17 and 1:18 half marathons he is throwing out at the end of these triathlons. He isn't going to podium at Kona, but you've got to respect the serious attempt he is putting into it. (and I am a Lance basher who would bet my retirement that he was a serial doper)

A 1:18 at st croix is better than elsewhere... For context, Alexander has run 1:15:58, and 1:16:29 at 2 of his races here and many of the top run splits are usually high 1:1x(1:17-1:19)/low 1:20's. Potts 1:12:50 was preposterous...

You are going to mail a royalty check for using his name right? Someone has to buy jet fuel.

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What if the Hokey Pokey is what it is all about?

In "context" wasn't Potts 17th last year at Kona?

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http://www.researchms.org/trifest/

I wish we could just make this into a thread about how much of a badass Andy Potts is.

I mean seriously, who races an Oly and clinches a series victory at that distance and then goes and races Kona six days later.

Oh, he was pretty good today too.

What context are you trying to provide? Kona is the only place Potts is still having trouble with (although he has 2 top 10's). He's won all his other Ironmans, where his bike has not been weaker as in kona, like a 4:42:04 when he won Coeur d'Alene, which was 3:15 off the course record at that time. 70.3 is where Potts tears it up....

I got to do a nice interview with Andy Potts post race. What a sportstman. He really respects Lance for coming out hear and duking it out at almost 41 wth the top pros in the sport. Andy said that Lance basically caught him at the Beast. Andy had not wattage to report, but Lance does, (but I did not get to speak to Lance as I was tooooooo slow to actually talk to him before he got whisked away). Andy says that Lance basically put the hammer down at around mile 35 and there was NOTHING him and Pouliat could do to respond. He said it was almost like a joke how easy Lance made that part look. Then out of T2 he was not sure how to pace. Initially he thought to rev it up and try to make the catch by 6 miles, but he was afraid of bonking (and also worried about the guys behind). He made the catch on Lance at around mile 9 going into the Buccaneer and wanted to have juice to make the pass "definitive" so that Lance did not lathch on. Interesting hearing all the tactics at play. They definitely respect Lance's abilities.

Potts was really excited about getting to race Lance once before Kona. He downplayed that he beat the 7x TdF Champion, saying that this is triathlon, not cycling. I briefly met with Angela Neath....course record riding in a flat tubular for the final 6 miles that includes a very tricky trecherous descent.

There were people flatting, and crashing all over the place. The rain was really heavy at times, and there were may puddles that were 808 rim deep. There was one massive Lake that spanned the entire road that was hub deep where lots of people went down on.

As for my race, my swim ability is somewhat limited due to my neck injuries from last year's crash...I still need a lot of neck rehab. I took the bike ultra cautious not wanting to go down. The split was 2:53, but I believe my entire wave seems to have 6 minutes added to our rides and 6 minutes removed from our runs. I am 98% certain, I did not run 1;34 which is 4:30 per kilometer. Seriously, at home I'm almost anaerobic running that pace as I still don't have proper coordination in my left leg from last years crash, injuries and subsequent nerve damage. Pretty sure that run was 1:40ish which was my target in a "best case scenario" that I told the guys. Before last year, I had a 20 year streak of finishing races, so I HOPE, that this is the start of another one. Aparently the 5:04 was good for 7th in M45-49, but that's probably only because all the fast guys are at home and unwilling to blow the money and vacation time to come here.

Talking to Jimmy Ritticello, Ken Glah and Tom Guthrie (race director), as a bunch of "old school athletes" we all agreed that this race is an "athlete's race", in the same vein as something like Savageman, Alpe d'Huez Tri or even Kona of which WTC is just the custodian. These types of races exist because the athletes, race director, the community all come together to make an astounding event happen. No small feat for this race to be around for 24 years.

Lance had the privelege to return to this event 24 years after he did it as a 16 year old. He can' t do that with any other event that he ever races in tri. In between he won 7 Tours and faught back from cancer. He won the UCI world's, a bunch of classics, the tour de Suisse, the Dauphine Libere and even an Olympic medal in the ITT. But he was back here today. In the start gate of the swim, he was all business. This could have been the start of the Alpe d'Huez ITT in his 6th tour where he set the record for tour wins. I watched him that day in the start gate in 2004 and today in the St. Croix start gate. He had the exact same fire in his eyes. You could say this race is meaningless compared to what he has done and it really is. This is not beating cancer and staring it in the face, nor raising money to help so many. It's just a race in a tiny island in the Caribbean, but guess what....he was there, he was fighting and put on an amazing race. The boy might grow up and become a man, reach his peak and then go down the other side, but you still can't take the boy out of the older version of the man.

To witness that, was awesome. I'm thankful I could be part of it in my small way. In the grave yard, everyone gets two dates on the headstone and a dash in between. It's the dash in between that counts and Lance has already done a lot with the dash in between and he's only halfway or so before they hang a date on the other side of the dash.

I can't wait to see what shakes out in Kona....a 1:18 run in St. Croix is something you can take to the Kona bank.

vs. the guns he was only 11th, though, in Vegas (with the slowest bike split for any guy in the top 15). Potts is very good, but I don't think he's great relative to the Raelerts, Crowie, etc when they're on form.

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Coaching - Future Endurance

He is a badass no doubt! I just don't see LA strong enough to compete against Crowie and Macca. Point, I don't see LA in a top5 @Kona. I cold however see Andy in the top3.

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http://www.researchms.org/trifest/

Agreed...

held back on the bike... he should be banned!

Congrats to him!!!!!!

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The entire event (IM) is like "death by 1000 cuts" and the best race is minimizing all those cuts and losing less blood than the other guy. - Dev

I think one of the points that many of you guys are overlooking about Lance in Kona is the effect of the bike on Lance's run.

The bike just takes less out of Lance's leg's than the most triathletes. After all those years of pro cycling, he can probably ride at a higher percent of FTP without hurting "what comes next" whether that is an all out Alpe d'Huez hillclimb or an Ironman marathon. When Lance raced over 3 Cols and then had to redline to the summit of say Courcheval, he has just less trashed than the next guy from the "warmup climbs". In all fairness to Andy Potts, I believe the long IM bike takes slightly more out of his legs, than they will for Lance. That's what I believe, as an armchair QB and don't have much to back it up other than his past record. The bigger question is what is his fall off in the final 10 k of the Kona marathon. It is clear from this race in St. Croix that he can run very well off a hard bike course.

Time will tell!

Potts officially gets "Cock of the Walk" cred today. He is the man, in every sense! Could not have been a nicer guy who run LA down. He gets to brag for the rest of his life about the strides he took passing LA - I only wish he would have said "How about them apples" as he passed.

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What if the Hokey Pokey is what it is all about?

This is true, but I just don't think Lance has the foot speed to run with a Crowie. I don't think this is something he can train up either -- not at 41. He is obviously amazing on the bike and maybe he can put some serious time in on the field on the bike leg, but if it comes down to the marathon, I think he will get caught.

Crowie ran a 1:15 in St. Croix in the blazing heat in 2008, Lance ran a 1:25 today in perfect conditions with no sun and cooler t's. That's giving up 10 mins in a half mary to a Crowie/Raelert/Jacobs, etc..

Lance's PR in a stand alone marathon is 2:49. Crowie can run a 2:44 Ironman marathon and Jacobs a 2:42.

Sorry, I'm just not seeing Lance in the top 5 at Kona. He may make it interesting like Lieto, but he won't be a serious contender.

Well I do not think that you can compare races from one year to the next and be completely accurate so we shall see.

Also, Lance's stand alone marathon's I'm sure were not "A" races so those times can be taken at face value at best.

I think Dev's comments about Lance's legs not taking the trashing like the other athletes has some merit.

Congrats on your race Dev! How deep do Kona slots o in your AG?

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Randy Christofferson(http://www.rcmioga.blogspot.com

Insert Doubt. Erase Hope. Crush Dreams.

Umm, I thought Lance ran a 1:18.

AND, he's clearly gotten better since his 2:49 marathon. I don't think he'll win in Kona but I do think he's a badass and has every intention on putting himself in position to win.

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Take a short break from ST and read my blog:
http://tri-banter.blogspot.com/

The updated results show a 1:25 run but also a 2:16 bike which would be a new record too. So lose win;)

Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Randy, I believe it is 2 slots. Ken Glah is going to make the guy in 3rd place very happy as he already has won a Kona slot for 2012.

Lance is also a few years older since he ran that 2:46 in NYC (that was 5 years ago!! -- 2007). As I recall, he also had an all star squad massaging him all the way -- Salazar, Samuelson, etc.. -- which he won't have in Kona.

I'd be surprised if he could still run that time in a stand alone mary. Also, as everyone on here knows, an Ironman marathon is a whole new ballgame.

For today's results, IM Live shows 1:25 which must include transition. Still his T2 shouldn't be 7 mins.

Per IM Live:
ATHLETERANKAGE/DIVSWIMBIKERUNTOTALPOTTS, ANDY1/2/135/MPRO00:24:2902:19:4201:19:2004:03:31POULAT, STEPHANE2/3/240/MPRO00:24:3102:19:4601:21:0804:05:25ARMSTRONG, LANCE7/1/340/MPRO00:25:5102:16:0901:25:0804:07:08
Take these times with a grain of salt -- I didn't race today, but based on the race reports I've read and the radio coverage, today there were ideal race conditions for St. Croix on the run -- cool and absolutely no hot sun -- this is not what he will get in Kona.

I would be shocked if Armstrong could pull out a 2:50 Ironman marathon in Kona. His half times, previous mary times just don't show it -- "A" race or not. To Dev's race report, I think when Armstrong shows up to race, it's all business and he's racing. He's not a "just cruise it in" kind of guy.

1:25 half pace is just not going to get it done in Kona. He may be a badass biker/swimmer, but a Crowie he is not. I'm not a Lance hater, but everyone that thinks he's going to be on the podium in Kona need to look at the results. Maybe he will prove me wrong -- maybe he will defy age and past performances and show us all who is boss.

Here is what I think: Lance needs a massive lead off the bike in Kona. He is going to hurt those other dudes 'The Royalty' of the sport whose names you know. I think he can do it to. He's going to hammer these guys so hard that they are going to destroy themselves on the bike just trying not to be gapped by too far a margin. Then they'll be hurting so bad that they cannot come anywhere close to their best IM marathon times and Lance cruises to the win.

This is what I think today. I will share more of my insightful analysis after IM France.

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**All of these words finding themselves together were greatly astonished and delighted for assuredly, they had never met before**

I'm pretty new at this, but isn't bashing LA, or pointing out why he can't win kind of silly? How many 40 year old racers honestly have a chance? I give credit to the guy for trying, but he spent his prime dominating over in France. If all he does is bring tons of money to this sport and his foundation, that's probably still a win.

Lance Fan-Boy Here!!

His last 70.3's

2nd
5th
3rd

Not bad........and he is smacking some youngsters around. Can't wait for 6/24 IM France.

As for the Lance bashers, since you are new, we have a question/phrase for those people:

"Why do you hate America?

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**All of these words finding themselves together were greatly astonished and delighted for assuredly, they had never met before**

I bet he could. Don't forget he bulked up alot. He's probably more aerobically in shape now than he was then, even allowing for age degradation of VO2max etc.

If Lance took up body sculpting....

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What if the Hokey Pokey is what it is all about?

You know, re: Lance having a massive lead off the bike; that's what everyone thinks, but I don't think it'll happen. I'm sure Lance can (and will) get fastest bike split at Kona, but it won't be by a lot. It is indeed what he needs to have a chance to win (Norman Stadler, anyone?), but I don't think he is ten minutes or more better than the rest at a long TT. He hasn't shown it yet and if he's been holding back but his sole hope at Kona is to let it out on the bike, then you might think he'd be experimenting with crushing the bike to see whether it makes him blow on the run. Panama it appeared he held back. Texas it seemed he wanted to make up time on the bike but failed to do so significantly and did not even have the fastest split of the day, and made a comment in some interview or tweet that it was too difficult to make time on the bike and that he was feeling the inner quad twitches on the verge of cramping up. St. Croix he put down the fastest split, but only went from one down to two up on Andy Potts. Hardly the massively dominating bike that many would expect. You are right, IM France will tell a lot.

Personally, I have been surprised by his lack of dominance on the bike and his excellent performances on the run. And while no one mentions it, his swimming is superb.

I wish i could suck to the tune of 1:18 for a half ironman run. Lance should just quit now...it's obvious he can't compete with the top pro's after ~66.3 miles. Lord knows he couldn't possibly get any faster between now and october. It only took an incredibly fast run by potts to catch him.

/pink

Love or hate him, the guy is damn impressive. Great article in the new lava magazine about him that puts things into perspective about his natural god given ability.

I like the old man Lance and giving him lots of credits for trying to win and beating up on younger Pro's in the process. But his run can't be matched to top Pro's to win after the bike course.

So was Potts half time a 1:18? Still fast, but 1:12 would have been ridiculously fast.

The thing I haven't seen people talking about is Lance's ability to peak.

During his cycling career, the difference between his form in June (at the Dauphine) versus July is monumental. It's hard to say how he will do in Kona, since he may be a looooooong ways off from his peak fitness. Maybe he isn't, it just is impossible to say. We learned from his cycling career that one �early� season performance doesn't correlate well to a big event.

The run seems to include the transition time here on his self recorded version
http://app.strava.com/rides/7981515

Now why do you think that was?

then you might think he'd be experimenting with crushing the bike to see whether it makes him blow on the run.

This ^^^^ is an excellent observation that neither I or my Crystal Ball have yet considered.
Back to the drawing board......

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**All of these words finding themselves together were greatly astonished and delighted for assuredly, they had never met before**

HAHAHA...Noooo you don't say....HAHAHAHAHA!

So another podium finish for Lance. Did they test down to third this time?

well in my view Dev--you deserve a Kona slot given all you've been through and what you did today. good on you man! Awesome--I'm proud to know ya!

rc

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Randy Christofferson(http://www.rcmioga.blogspot.com

Insert Doubt. Erase Hope. Crush Dreams.

Dev,

I agree with Randy. You deserve some nice kudos for working so hard and getting back in the game. great job sir.

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What I do: http://app.strava.com/athletes/345699

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I think it is hilarious that Lance seems to be held to different standard by the haters.He is having a better season than a whole bunch of top triathletes and yet apparently this isn't enough to give the dude any credit at all.He is bringing more media attention to our sport at a time when everyone is crying to get out sport into more mainstream media and yet that isn't being applauded.I can't wait until he actually wins one of these races just to see what the haters come up with...

Sorry folks but the harsh reality is that the only triathlons that the U.S mainstream media will be interested in between now and October will be the ones with Lance in them.That says a lot considering there is that little race in London in around 80 days....

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.....and why is it that the guru's here haven't slammed Lance for not wearing an aero helmet.Clearly the guy is cluless about bike riding and doesn't know anything about aerodynamics...


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I think it is hilarious that Lance seems to be held to different standard by the haters.

The hilarity is that the haters see 2nd 5th and 3rd place finishes as shitty results for a man who is more than 40 years old competing in a sport typically dominated by younger athletes.

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**All of these words finding themselves together were greatly astonished and delighted for assuredly, they had never met before**

Always enjoy reading your stuff, but that's one of your better ones!

Nice work on both the race and the report.

Lance is a 40-year-old, father of 5, that has all the fame and money a man could ever want or need. Instead of sitting around getting fat and/or doing all the stupid things rich atheltes sometimes do, he is out doing something healthy - that he loves immensesly. In the process, LA is helping fight cancer and bring media attention to a healthy lifestyle. In his mid-life crisis, he just happens to be about 100x better than me. I love it, I think it's absolutely awesome. As a 45-year-old father, it makes me train just a little bit harder.

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Damn, that's a cold ass honkey.

Do you even know what his charity does?

"We look at the experiences of the cancer community, find problems and develop solutions. Then we roll them out to help more people in more situations."

"We find new ways to raise awareness, increase outreach and facilitate collaboration in an effort to improve the cancer experience."

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Damn, that's a cold ass honkey.

Exactly. They don't fight cancer (whatever that means.) They help people deal with the challenges that cancer brings. A very noble and worthwhile pursuit to be sure but I know a lot of people who have supported them thinking that they were fundraising for research into a possible cure (or cures) and felt somewhat ripped off when they learned the truth.

Yeah, even if you recall in 2009 when he was in the Giro....he said his form was a "joke"....then he moved up to 3rd by the time the TdF rolled around. That was only 3 years ago. Physiologically, Lance has very likely not changed that much at all in terms of aging. In general, we all make a big stink about 40 which is just a number. 40 year olds are no different in capacity than 36 year olds. The big decline really happens at somewhere between 43 and 48 depending on the person. I see no reason why Lance can't lift the game substantially between now and then. I have to believe the guy is toying around on the bike to respect the run. No way that a guy like Andy Potts has the option to stay with Lance for 35 miles on a rolling course. In other words, if Andy and Lance were on a breakaway in the Massif Central or at Liege Bastogne Liege, Andy Potts gets dropped instantly....there would be no staying anywhere close to Lance for 35 miles. It's not even an option for Andy. All of this said with full respect to Andy. The question is whether all this swimming and running has dropped Lance's FTP on the bike which is what tends to happen. But Lance can also park the swim and run training for a couple of months after IM France, put those sports in maintenance mode and really work on jacking up his bike.

Right now, I believe he is feeling out what he needs to do and what the fields are like and learning what the sport is like today. All of this is more like spring training for Lance.

@ Randy...thanks for the good words, but the guys who won the Kona slots are in an entirely different league of performance
@ Eric Reid....dude, I was thinking about you and some of the good times at races together this week. Maybe by next year, we get to hit the road again for some away races together....although it will be even harder when you are living Seattle!!! Hopefully things are on the upswing now. Thanks for your time in Afghanistan. Those war zone deployments have a high cost to health and overall stress and family life. That's a big sacrifice. Just glad you are back safely.

Dev, i don't agree with you that LA can afford to park the run and work on his FTP post IM France. His run is his definite weakness and I don't think he can win Kona with his run at it's present level. He still needs to work at his run even if it means he loses some of his benefit on the bike.

...I guess that is why we're all armchair quarterbacks. I think Lance needs to do what Monty said....work his strength and minimize damage from his weaknesses.

Agreed. I'm just not sure that his strength can give him a big enough lead to allow him to have a relatively weak run. The guys that have won Kona on the bike have been better runners than Lance.

But Lance can also park the swim and run training for a couple of months after IM France, put those sports in maintenance mode and really work on jacking up his bike.

____________

So you think his best option to winning is to go full bore on the bike and essentially hang on? Obviously, I think that's what he has to do to win, but I'm not sure he can do that by putting his running on cruise control.

ETA: I see the comments from you and philb. I dont think going into cruising mode will allow an athlete like Lance to minimize that weakness.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

I wonder if Potts was slowed more than most on the bike by the fact that he does most of his bike training indoors on the Computrainer, as opposed to Lance who has hundreds of thousands of miles on the road (and off) in all sorts of nastiness. How much did the road conditions affect people? If so, more power to Andy--I saw him in Alcatraz last year and seems like a great guy and an awesome competitor.

I agree. And he can't minimize the damage from his running if he parks his running. He can probably cycle 100 miles a week in training and maintain his bike strength, with short quality bike workouts. But, the question is, how does he effectively up his marathon run for an Ironman. That's the tough nut for him to crack. Fortunately, it's just one nut. Umm.... No joke intended. ;)

In these races it's obvious that Lance is calibrating how hard he can bike, yet maintain a triathlete pro's top-ish run form. He's getting very good advice from the best coaching talent. Frankly, his run time at St. Croix has me a bit worried that he might actually break 3 hours in Kona. After that bike course, I'd be crawling on all fours....

We can all second guess Lance's approach and "weaknesses" but at the end of the day every pro out there sees Lance as a very serious threat at Kona, and they all expect him to be READY in October to lay down a really blistering bike leg. So, a better question is HOW DO THEY PREPARE to race against someone who was, arguably, one of the best cyclists ever? Which of them will be ready to go sub 4:20 on the bike, and then lay down a sub-3:00 hour marathon? We'll see....

-Robert

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"How wonderful it is that nobody need wait a single moment before starting to improve the world." ~Anne Frank

Congrats Dev on your race! LA becomes more of a triathlete and less of a professional cyclist with each triathlon that he does. I don't see him parking the swim and run after IM France.

X2. Potts is an absolute stud. For all his accomplishments, he is always doubted. His record at 70.3 is remarkable.

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Formerly DrD

I'm hoping LA tries in Florida or Honu to totally blow up the field on the bike and see how much it takes of his run. He can't get any more points in those races anyway--you can only count three 70.3s toward Kona points, and Florida and Honu are 500 point races. He already has more than 500 points in each of his first three 70.3s, so he has nothing to lose in Florida or Honu (if he even keeps them on his schedule). (1200 in Panama, 520 in Texas, and 585 yesterday in St. Croix).

(Arguably in Texas he did try to blow up the field on the bike and couldn't quite do it.)

His nutrition wasn't right in Texas, plus he had a serious meltdown from the heat and the effort. Nutrition and getting his electrolytes just right are part of the dialing in process I'm sure. He sweats a lot too and the lack of cooling in long runs will really dehydrate you. You know he is playing with all these variables and that's one of the reasons he's racing so much. Plus, he's probably got a huge contract from WTC, but I'm guessing.

-Robert

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"How wonderful it is that nobody need wait a single moment before starting to improve the world." ~Anne Frank

The heat won't be any better in Kona.

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

Agree with your post except that I don't think Lance is capable of asub-3 hour marathon in an IM, more like 3:10 at best in my opinion.

Exactly, which is why I'm thinking he won't go under 3 hours on the run unless he is able to make some adjustments AND up his running game. Does that happen at 40 for world class athletes? We'll see.

-Robert

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"How wonderful it is that nobody need wait a single moment before starting to improve the world." ~Anne Frank

I totally agree! But I hope I'm wrong....

-Robert

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"How wonderful it is that nobody need wait a single moment before starting to improve the world." ~Anne Frank

Very well said Dev. I hope you enjoy your time in St. Croix. Great race by you!
-Doug

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It is the mind itself which builds the body.
-Joseph Pilates

I am no Lance fanboy, nor do I dislike him. Here are my thoughts
* No doubt he is an amazing athlete. Already in his teens he was a high-performing athlete so he has shown he can perform well with or without doping (not saying he doped during his later career but I strongly assume he did not doing his early career as a triathlete). The performance in the last 3 HIMs shows that he is an amazing athlete despite the fields were not very deep

* I am sure his performance will be good enough to KQ. If not, I am sure WTC will make sure he gets a spot, like it or not.

* I doubt he will win Kona or even go top-3

- he has limited (currently 0 races and will have 1 race accumulated by October) experience in IMs, and especially no Kona experience. I doubt that whatever deep coaching support can outweigh this lack of experience
- he will come first off the bike but looking at his HIM bike splits, there is no indication that he will come off with a very strong lead. My guess is that he will have 5-10 minutes to the strong runners. His HIM runs and open marathons are more than a few minutes slower than the Kona podium contenders and add to thatthe limited IM and Kona experience and I am sure he will be hunted down during the run. The question is just how much he will loose on the run? I would say some 15-20 minutes, could be slightly less or even more if things go bad for him., I think he will finish some 10-15 minutes after the winner. More of course if it goes really bad on the run. I predict a top-10 finish but could likely be in top-5 but not podium.

* A top-10 or even 20 at Kona would be pretty amazing. A lot of very very strong athletes place there. For example Rasmus Henning. Who would claim that he is not an amazing athlete?

X2 or 3 or whatever...great work Dev! Awesome race. Very studly age group. So glad for you to be back!!

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Coach at KonaCoach Multisport

but his ability to handle the heat very likely will be better by Kona.

>>TURN ON MOVIE ANNOUNCER VOICE<< ( you know the one)


Early May, Lance is almost ready for his next take over.
Lance, moving to a new sport once he conquered the world of inter galactic cycling.
He came, he played, he tested the waters.
He let them think that he could be beat.
Then, on a fateful day in October, trying to beat the rising of a full moon.....


LANCE UNLEASHES!!!! The destruction of the minds and bodies of the mortals who make their way in life swimming, biking and running...the sport will never be the same.


Wait for October and the world Premier of "Heat Acclimated - the story of how Lance takes over Triathlon"

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What if the Hokey Pokey is what it is all about?

I hope so, but one would think that since he grew up in Texas he would be able to handle the heat by now. And if he can't handle it by now, well what's going to change between now and Kona?

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

66 age groupers ran sub 3:10 marathons in Kona last year, most of whom have jobs that aren't to swim-bike-run all day. Granted Lance doesn't have Craig Alexander-Pete Jacobs run speed, but 3:10 'at best' is not giving the guy a lot of credit.

What do I need to give him credit for? He is a great cyclist, he has yet to prove he is a great runner.

spring will turn to summer, happens every year.

You don't need to be a great runner to run a sub 3:00 in an Ironman marathon, a great runner runs 2:45. Lots of those sub 3:10 IM marathoners in Kona wouldn't have put down a 1:17 split in Panama nor a 1:25 in St. Croix.

Didn't Chrissie win Kona having only done one other IM before?

Great job Dev! Looks like you are back in the game. Well done.

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FIST Certified Fitter
Salt Lake City, Utah

Yeah but didn't she have a pretty big cycling background before getting into triathlon??? .............oh wait

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Great runners don't win in Hawaii -- great triathletes do. And in at least 2 of the 3 70.3s he's done so far he's left a lot of great runners behind him at the finish line. Sure they were closing but not fast enough. Look at the guys who are beating him -- Docherty and Potts, some of the sports best runners. What is going to happen when the distance doubles and the pace slows?

The thing that amazes me about this guy is what must be in his head. Think about it, he's 40 years old, he's got bazillions, he's got a family and kids, he's got his own JET, a foundation to run, etc... and this is how he is spending his time. Not just entering these things as a charity deal but actually attempting to win them and hitting the podium 2 out of 3 attempts. Mentally the guy is still very very strong. Macca said it best, "He's a winner."

I think I'll go back and read some old Lance threads from 2009-2010. "He'll be 5 minutes back out of the water," "He can't run," etc...

If he podiums at Kona there will be a zillion posts on here about how crappy his run was :-)

Seems to me the Germans did that for years at Kona. didn't work out too well for them.......

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Barry Dmitruk
2017: Florida 70.3 (done); Mont Tremblant 70.3 & Ironman

...except for 2004, 2005 and 2006.

By those years they had worked on their running considerably. I was referring to the 1990 when the likes of Hellreigel, Ledar and Stadler would get off the bike with huge leads, only to be run down. When it comes down to it, an Ironman more times than not comes down to the marathon.

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Barry Dmitruk
2017: Florida 70.3 (done); Mont Tremblant 70.3 & Ironman

This is true, however, Chrissie flew under the radar that year. None of the girls had any clue who she was, so when she took off on the bike they just let her go. They were all thinking that she was likely going to blow up.

Lance won't be under the radar. Everyone will have their eye on what he's doing.

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

Absolutely
+1

I'm not sure it is Lance that is held to a higher standard, but a response to the statements made by the fans about what he will do. Probably very few of us know the guy, we are all simply offering our views on what we think he is capable of.

thanks for the comment. i watched Mr. Armstrong in st croix. he was amazing in every way. the crowds of people trying to get something from him was incredible. how the man can focus on the actual race has to be a challenge. being out on the bike, he can at least get away from everyone. i also loved how so many St Croix locals who may have stayed home because of the rain or just bored with the triathlon, came out to see him. there was energy and excitement in the air because of him, maybe not seen seen the Mike Pigg days. the island needed this excitement badly, if even for a week.

This is true, however, Chrissie flew under the radar that year. None of the girls had any clue who she was, so when she took off on the bike they just let her go. They were all thinking that she was likely going to blow up.

Lance won't be under the radar. Everyone will have their eye on what he's doing.[/quote]
They didn't just let her go. They didn't go because they would have blown up....

I'd like to see these statements that were wildly off about what he will do. There might be a few trolls throughout the years, but I think he is generally performing better than almost anyone on this forum predicted. Many thought he would get chicked in Kona, I think at this point that only happens if he has an extraordinarily bad day.

2nd in Panama
7th in Texas
3rd in St Croix

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

Thanks for bringing up the question that I can't believe hasn't been asked yet here.
Who's going to benefit the most when the bike distance doubles?? Followed up by double the run???

Can Lance do enough damage to the better runners when the bike distance doubles to put their run in jeopardy somewhat?
Will double the bike hurt Lance's run more than the others?

I don't have an answer as no one else here will. I don't even have a guess so looks like IMF will be a big or only tell tale....but as already been mentioned. I still wouldn't count IMF results as a pure tell tale as we already know how Lance doesn't like to show all his card for the main event.

In the end, I think Lance has a good chance for a strong Top 10 in October. I think the overall concensus is he "should" be leading out of T2 and into the run. I think he'll start dropping back as the run settles in and having a hard time the last 5-6. Again, strong top 10 but at best just off the podium. Sure this is pure guessing and speculation, but isn't that what ST is all about!?

Michael

He beat Crowie at Clearwater 2007 when Crowie still had his first Kona in him(where he said he finished some still in the tank). Crowie went after him that following spring at oceanside where he said he threw everything at potts uncluding the kitchen sink, and potts won. Potts can hang with the big boys no doubt, he is one. That was a few years back, yes, and Crowie has shown he is still at the top of the Ironman and 70.3 game still...maybe potts needs to go back to training like he did for oly/70.3 that also netted him a 7th at kona in gis ironman debut...

They didn't just let her go. They didn't go because they would have blown up....[/quote]
Perhaps they would have blown up, but I was going with what I heard the Pro ladies saying after the race. They didn't know who Chrissie was and they all thought that she was nuts for riding as hard as she was. My guess is that Samantha McGlone would like a do-over of that race. I bet she would have pushed the bike a little harder.

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

The best triathlete. Usually Craig Alexander.