I think that it's going to be really close unless Jan has timed his form corectly, in which case it's his to lose. I think Basso will have a bad day or two and won't be in the running for the victory. The top 5 spots will come down to who has timed his fitness the best. One or two of the GC faves will have mis-timed his peak and will finish outside the top 10, it's just a matter of who.

Everybody's already named most of the favorites for the top 10, though I think Menchov will also be in the mix. There will probably be a Spanish rider that finishes in the top 10 who isn't touted among the favorites, probably a Saunier or Astana rider, possibly Contador or Marchante.

I really think you'll see Valverde in the podium mix. Despite what some think he's improved his TTing quite a bit. In any case, I think he and Basso may be fighting it out for yellow in the coming years.

Did anyone else notice that all 5 of the pre-Giro favorites will be at the Tour? Basso, Simoni, Savoldelli, Cunego, and DiLuca are all doing the double.