No one forgets the 2016 polls. Not one person.

But I'm not sure of your point? Is your point that margins of error can only work in Trump's favor? So if he's ahead it's, if anything, an underestimate of how far ahead he is?

That's not how margins of error work. Particularly - speaking of 538 specifically - since they put their thumb on the scale more in Trump's favor these days to compensate for some of the polling biases they think caused the issues in 2016.

It's too soon to call shots. The race is tight now. It'll be tight in November. Trends you see now could reverse 3 times between now and then. The DNC / Biden campaign is sitting on a *ton* of cash, and have been holding it in reserve. Maybe campaign spending doesn't matter with Trump, since his cult of personality commands free coverage whenever he wants. With the charges and trials feeding into his grievance-victim narrative. Certainly possible. But neither would I rule out that it might matter.

It's hard not to get emotionally caught up in projecting what you'd like to see vs. what's actually there.