Well a lot like in the test event, Knibb's not necessarily going to be able to dictate who she pulls (or doesn't pull) up to the front group, if she misses the front group. The main issue with "breaking away" and why it's likely easier to break away from a front group even though they are stronger- the smaller a group the more a gap in said group will affect the chasers. So if she breaks away from the other 8, if only 3 make a break, and the 4th wheel is 3 bikes back, suddenly it's down to 3 riders able to help each other. The chase group has an motivated what 20-30 athletes hoping like hell for a chance to make the front group. So suddenly they may be able to "fill the gaps" so to speak and suddenly even if Knibb doesn't want to bring 20 with her, she may end up bringing 20 with her. There is also the front group tactic- It may not be in some of the front group's best interest to get into a game of cat and mouse with Knibb (and chase down every Knibb attack). It may even be helpful that Knibb gets a gap and is doing all the work while the front group keeps said gap maneagable. I don't think Knibb is going to get 1 min on them, but 10-15s at best into T2, maybe. I would guess Knibb is going to need 20-30s in order to stay away on the run.
That's why it will likely be easier for her to get away from the front group and if she didn't make the front group out of the swim, USA tactics *should* go to plan B (race for GJ *if* she. made the event). Now of course Knibb has AQ'd and likely will work her ass off in Yoko to indirectly make GJ's AQ chances even harder. But if Knibb is the only AQ athlete, the chances of her changing tactics at all are almost zilch. She's likely going to be given the freedom to race "her" race (deservedly so, AQ allows that).
Hell the US could use Spivey as a "domestique" in a number of ways. She could be the "disruptor" in the front group that Knibb goes off the front and suddenly Spivey plays the team tactice of "slowing down" the chasers (we've all seen it happen in a group ride, one person pulls through just 0.4 mph slower than the others) and suddenly a slight disruption causes a bit of chaos in the group. And mind you I'm not saying brake check the group in corners or anything "ethically" afoul. I'm talking about just solid teammwork tactics- nothing wrong with sitting in the group and/or not pulling through as fast to not help the group chase an "teammate" down.
And then I guess GJ would be the "backup" plan if the race came together. I just don't see that happening within the women's field in an Olympic race. So again I guess she is the ace in the hole, but to me that's probaly closer to 1-3 1-4 type of chances it works out. I'd give the front group staying away 5-2 chances, that to me is easily the betting favorite. Thus anyone not in the front group is sorta useless imo, but again if that's the ace in the hole if things don't work out like it should, then yeah ok makes sense.
Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
That's why it will likely be easier for her to get away from the front group and if she didn't make the front group out of the swim, USA tactics *should* go to plan B (race for GJ *if* she. made the event). Now of course Knibb has AQ'd and likely will work her ass off in Yoko to indirectly make GJ's AQ chances even harder. But if Knibb is the only AQ athlete, the chances of her changing tactics at all are almost zilch. She's likely going to be given the freedom to race "her" race (deservedly so, AQ allows that).
Hell the US could use Spivey as a "domestique" in a number of ways. She could be the "disruptor" in the front group that Knibb goes off the front and suddenly Spivey plays the team tactice of "slowing down" the chasers (we've all seen it happen in a group ride, one person pulls through just 0.4 mph slower than the others) and suddenly a slight disruption causes a bit of chaos in the group. And mind you I'm not saying brake check the group in corners or anything "ethically" afoul. I'm talking about just solid teammwork tactics- nothing wrong with sitting in the group and/or not pulling through as fast to not help the group chase an "teammate" down.
And then I guess GJ would be the "backup" plan if the race came together. I just don't see that happening within the women's field in an Olympic race. So again I guess she is the ace in the hole, but to me that's probaly closer to 1-3 1-4 type of chances it works out. I'd give the front group staying away 5-2 chances, that to me is easily the betting favorite. Thus anyone not in the front group is sorta useless imo, but again if that's the ace in the hole if things don't work out like it should, then yeah ok makes sense.
Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
Last edited by:
B_Doughtie: Jan 18, 24 22:01