Revised prediction (in light of late entries and withdrawals)
Ditlev (and late entrant Weiss, fresh from errant bottle chucking DQ) will bridge the gap after the swim dropping Lange. Frodeno [with Smith] will be together with Ditlev first out of T2. Frodo wont spare anything for the run and seeing him working together with Ditlev they will be hard to catch. Maybe +3m gap.
Pro Tri News interview with Lange ahead of Roth: https://podcasts.apple.com/...of-roth/id1559781865?
Long has completed several IMs: only once under 8 hours. Best 26 miles is 2:45.
Ditlev has completed only one IM: in 7:57 with a 7 minute flat 'penalty', running 2:40.
I think Lange is likely not to be prepared/able to hold onto Ditlev on the bike once the Dane catches up before the first time up Solar Hill.T. But Lange (with Boecherer and Clavel with him? and maybe Weiss too) will restrict the T2 gap to Smith/Frodeno/Ditlev/Kallin. If 2019 Frodeno races, he wins. If he needs to husband his ankle resources then Lange will chase down Ditlev.
Long will be along later: perhaps Keinle will offer him some company.
In WPRO, 4 of the top 10 women at St George are racing: will be good to see how they go, with Haug [NB 2021 faster speed than 2011 Wellington record] with home advantage and 'form'. The race will be for second.
MX Endurance podcast here with their rather laboured and low on analysis take on Roth:
Ditlev (and late entrant Weiss, fresh from errant bottle chucking DQ) will bridge the gap after the swim dropping Lange. Frodeno [with Smith] will be together with Ditlev first out of T2. Frodo wont spare anything for the run and seeing him working together with Ditlev they will be hard to catch. Maybe +3m gap.
Pro Tri News interview with Lange ahead of Roth: https://podcasts.apple.com/...of-roth/id1559781865?
Long has completed several IMs: only once under 8 hours. Best 26 miles is 2:45.
Ditlev has completed only one IM: in 7:57 with a 7 minute flat 'penalty', running 2:40.
I think Lange is likely not to be prepared/able to hold onto Ditlev on the bike once the Dane catches up before the first time up Solar Hill.T. But Lange (with Boecherer and Clavel with him? and maybe Weiss too) will restrict the T2 gap to Smith/Frodeno/Ditlev/Kallin. If 2019 Frodeno races, he wins. If he needs to husband his ankle resources then Lange will chase down Ditlev.
Long will be along later:
In WPRO, 4 of the top 10 women at St George are racing: will be good to see how they go, with Haug [NB 2021 faster speed than 2011 Wellington record] with home advantage and 'form'. The race will be for second.
MX Endurance podcast here with their rather laboured and low on analysis take on Roth: