No doubt. When doping improves it will happen.

Theoretically, by a few seconds. Could count on closer adherence to the measured distance if nothing else

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Yes but how precisely can he runner run up to the line without a DQ for 2 hours? Might actually be longer in reality.

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TrainingBible Coaching
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Distance around the rail is 398.xx. You're "supposed" to be a bit off of it for 400m

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A track is measured 20cm (8") from the inside of the lane line or 30cm (12") from the inside of the curb if there is one.

So, further opportunity to "short" the distance by hugging the line.

I expect hugging the line has physiological cost though

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

The longest race that I know of that took place on a track was a few years ago when Moses Mosop set the World Record for 25 and 30k on the track in Eugene Oregon. Remember, Moses Mosop is no slouch!

http://www.letsrun.com/2011/moses-0603.php


That's still not convincing at all that we will see a sub-2 hour record any time soon. That's just more evidence to the fact that if there will be marathon world records in the near future...it will be broken by VERY small margins. Again...I likely won't see sub 2-hours in my lifetime (and I'm only 30).

So, 1:26:47 for 30K on the track vs 1:27:37 as the official 30K WR on the road (pack of 5 en route to Berlin marathon WR 2014).

1:26:47 is 2:02:03 marathon pace.

Someone throwing $50m or $100m at it might speed up the process. There's Lots of great athletes who don't ever get into athletics and certainly not the mara. Increase the numbers doing it by massive incentive and capture all/most of the genetic outliers who might otherwise do something else. You only need one to be "the one". You might even get all the wannabe golfers, tennis players - not that they're likely to help.

And we're still worlds apart.

A 2-hour marathon is 4:34 pace.
A 2:02:03 marathon is 4:39 pace

So Mosop would have to have gone 5 seconds per mile faster than he did while executing his track 30k WR. That is a HUGE ask. Just look at what happened in the London marathon this year where they all went out at 2:01 pace...There wasn't much left after halfway.

87 men have broken 60 for a half marathon (WR is Zersenay Tedese at 58:23), but if you look at the all-time list, many of the fastest half marathoners have had lack-luster marathon careers (not even sure if Tedese has broken 2:10 for a full marathon!).

There are exceptions:
Sammy Wanjiru is number 3 on the all-time list (58:33)
Patrick Makau is number 8 on the all time list (58:52 HM PR)

Only Patrick Makau is in the top ten for both lists!

The marathon world record has been assaulted over the last few years only because it was 'weak' or 'easy' compared to other world records. Now... That is not the case. The world record is now very very fast. We are in the 'golden age' of marathoning...I can think of 5 or 6 runners off the top of my head who may hold the record in the near future, and that is not typical. Usually it's incredible if we have two greats that battle each other (think Hailie and Tergat)...and now we have:
E. Mutai
G. Mutia
W. Kipsang
P. Makau
D. Kimetto
E. Kipchoge (only 1 of 3 men to run under 12:50 for the 5k, under 26:50 for the 10k and under 2:05 for the marathon...HUGE tallent...The only other two do do this is Hailie and Tergat, and he also boasts a 3:50 mile PR!)
Perhaps Bekele as well...though still extremely fast and relatively young, he doesn't seem to be what he once was...makes me thing what he once was was artificially 'enhanced'

That's a lot of potential WR holders...all in their prime, all running right now. Marathon racing is truly something to behold right now, but Mark my words...you will not see a sub 2-hour marathon any time soon...someone said maybe 2075, and I'm inclined to think that'll be a little soon.

20 years is a good estimate. It only look 11 years to drop ~2.5 min.

It's not linear! The function will behave asymptotically as the performance gets faster...or as we approach the limits of human performance. Just because there was 2.5 minutes in 20 years means nothing when it comes to how long the next 2.5 minutes will come.

Sergei Bubka raised the pole vault world record 15 centimeters in one year between 84 - 85 from 5.85m to 6.00m. At that rate of progression the WR should be 10.5m, right? What is it? 6.14m? Oh. 1 year, 15 centimeters. 29 years, 14 centimeters.

Moses Mosop said he thought he could go 2:02:30. And, he also mentioned that the young, fast 26+ 10K guys were moving from the 10K to marathon early in their careers because of the money, and this was why the marathon was becoming so fast and competitive all of a sudden. But, the easy money's been found. From here on out it'll be a few seconds here and there every few Berlin Marathons when the weather cooperates.

Well, we could expect it to be that way, it may not. Tomorrow maybe someone invents a 1 ounce shoe, or a freak is born, and creates a complete discontinuity.

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

??

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Me: https://carnivoreendurance.blogspot.com/...ever-comes-next.html

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that might be a good design to try, with different materials!

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

I'll give you a 1 ounce shoe...perhaps even new polymer paving structures, but am not sure how much benefit we can get from those.


One thing is for sure though, we've already reached 'freak' status. Look at the all-time list. 9 of the top 10 list are from a single, remote, and small tribe in Kenya. 8 of those 9 come from only two training groups. Hell...there are only 3 people not from that one single tribe in the top twenty (Ethiopians).

You have to get all the way down to number 109 (Ronaldo da Costa) to find someone that was born outside of Kenya, Ethiopia, and Morroco (Only Khalid Khannouchi breaks up Kenya and Ethiopia...and I don't count Ryan Halls Boston PR because of wind and down-hill course).

We are most definitely waste deep in specialized 'genetic freaks' who's culture and environment bread runners with exceptional physiological capabilities, exceptional pain tolerance (if you hadn't heard this...it's not for the faint at heart http://www.radiolab.org/story/runners/), and self-belief in the marathon.

Absolutely, but we don't know anything near enough about our universe to say there isn't a mutation or set of mutations out there that could produce someone much faster that even our freaks today. That is one of those unknown unknowns!

One of the interesting ways of looking at it was taking the runners with the best known running economy, and those with the best known vo2 max. If you could combine those features (and maybe you can't), you would get a sub 2 hour marathon.

Maybe one day someone is born with both of those features. Or maybe something we never thought about. Obviously things like this must happen pretty rarely. I'm not sure anyone has been born in modern history who created a discontinuity like that, which nobody else was able to replicate later. (other than some female swimmers and track athletes in a certain decade, ha!)

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

Paula Radcliff. No one not name Paula Radcliff has come within 3 minutes of her PR...No one has been able to run within 7 seconds per mile in a marathon, and no one will be running sub 2:17 for a long time.

Granted, women's marathoning isn't at the same level as the men in therms of depth, but there's still enough competition, and some mighty brave runners who've attempted Paula's pace (Mary Keitany even tried in New York in 2011!). Also note that Florence Kiplagat and Mary Keitany have both ran faster than Paula in the half marathon...and have done so recently.

Also, genetic mutations happen, but if they are abrupt, it's usually really ugly, and certainly not an enhancement. Evolution also happens, but this is over eons, not decades. So applied to this situation, I'm still sticking to my guns and saying a sub-2 hour marathon isn't happening any time soon. Is there a chance...in a world where all probabilities sum to unity...sure there's a chance, but there are posters stating with conviction that we'll see it in 20 years, and that is absolutely foolish. The only thing that is emerging that I can see people manipulating to 'develop' upon the freaks we have is the study of epigenetics. The field is still in it's infancy, but it basically is studying the relationship between our environment and how it interacts with which genes are actually coded. So lets say we have some savvy genetics person that knows all these relationships (which we don't), and attempts to optimize everything for a perfect marathon runner (assuming it's not already optimized in the rift valley), we'd still have to wait for that runner to reach maturity which is over 20 years.

Don't expect this to happen in 20 years. If I were to put money on it, 2:02 won't be broken for 20 years, and 2:02 is still OVER A HALF OF A MILE BEHIND 2:00!

We've been talking about how close we are to the barrier and that's part of the problem. We are still a LONG WAYS AWAY. We need over 7 seconds per mile improvement for the whole 26.2 distance. Think about how hard it is to eek out 5 seconds per mile in a 5k when you are already fairly fast (Say you're running 15:50 ish for 5k....that will take you to 15:30 is for 5k...That is really hard to do, assuming you were already putting in 100 mpw for years).

So your saying that we need some genetic testing and then do some cross breeding like you do with non-GMO plants, cows, pigs, chicken. We just need the right hybrid. Depending on the willingness of program "participants" to breed or donate eggs & sperm, and figure 3 months to perform a genetic test on the fetus safely.... so after maybe 30 attempts and 10 years or so, we might hit the magic formula. Faster than waiting 30 or 40 years for a statistical super freak to appear naturally.

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TrainingBible Coaching
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Works for horse racing.

That has possible aerodynamic explanations so I'm not including it as an example =)

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

I have some vague memory that they have run into a bit of a performance wall, despite that. Not sure though.

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

I wonder what tone this discussion would have if we started discussing the possibility of a sub-3:20 1500m?

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According to all the 'equivalent performance' charts (Think Daniels, McMillian, Kellog, etc.). That's even farther out of the range of things we know. Though David Rudisia hasn't taken to the 1500m a whole lot yet (I actually don't think he has run a single one!) and his 800m WR Olympic victory leading wire-to-wire looked really easy for him...

Then again, perhaps he hasn't taken to the 1500 because he is too specialized for the 800...