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running a sub 2 hour marathon
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I thought this article was very well done describing the various aspects of what needs to happen for the two hour barrier to be broken.

I am looking forward to the forthcoming discussion.

http://rw.runnersworld.com/sub-2/
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Re: running a sub 2 hour marathon [sametime] [ In reply to ]
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What will it take?

Uh, a sub 4:35/mile average?

Civilize the mind, but make savage the body.

- Chinese proverb
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Re: running a sub 2 hour marathon [sametime] [ In reply to ]
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The problem with the marathon record is that many of the things listed needed to break the record are the same things that favor slow racing strategies. Put the best runners in the world on a dead flat course with pacers and the 'sit and kick' instinct will always win out. Encouraging them to work together in pace lines ect. like the article implies will be near impossible. Add on top the articles suggesting the runner will be young and fearless makes the teamwork aspect even harder to believe.
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Re: running a sub 2 hour marathon [sametime] [ In reply to ]
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When I first followed marathon running in the early 80's the WR was 2:08 (de Castella) and we are now 2:02:57 in a little over 30 years. I think its possible that 30-years from now the top east African runners are indeed flirting with sub 2. I'd imaging that to be able to accomplish this you'd also need to have run a sub-26 min 10k during your career? I'd also imagine that during this time (30-years from now) the WR for 5K will require an average pace of sub 4-min miles (12:25 or lower). Can't wait!
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Re: running a sub 2 hour marathon [sametime] [ In reply to ]
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I like it as a fun thought exercise, but obviously the factors outlined are virtually impossible to perfect.

2075 seems like a decent guess though

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Re: running a sub 2 hour marathon [sametime] [ In reply to ]
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It will be a LONG time...I doubt it will come in my lifetime unless there is a huge paradigm shift in our tolerance for pharmaceutical assistance...

We will see a 10k WELL UNDER 26 minutes before we see a marathon in under 2 hours (around 25:40 lets say so around 4:08 pace...current world Record is 26:17 with a pace of ), and we'll see a 5k in around 12:20 (3:58 mile pace) (current world record is 12:37 with a pace of 4:04).

...So that 10k equivalent WR (to a 2 hour marathon) is like running two back to back 12:50 5ks...How many people have ran that for an open 5k? Around 15 to my count, and you want them to run that back-to-back.

Now lets talk that 5k equivalent WR...The closest performance to that would be Daniel Koman's 2 mile world record (1997 - 7:58.61)

Under equivalent performances, the World Record for the marathon has just now caught up with Bekele's 2004 and 2005 world records in the 5 and 10k.

Lets list the fastest 5 and 10ks since Bekele's performances:
Fastest times for each year for the 5k, Since 2004, we have:
2005: 12:40 - Bekele
2006 - 12:48 - Bekele
2007 - 12:49 - Bekele
2008 - 12:50 - Bekele
2009 - 12:52 - Bekele
2010 - 12:51 - Eliud Kipchoge
2011 - 12:53 - Mo Farah
2012 - 12:46 - Dehene Gebremeskel
2013 - 12:51 - Edwin Soi
2014 - 12:54 - Mukta Edris (who the heck is he???)

Anyways...looks like we're going in the wrong direction for the 5k, and no one other than Bekele has come within 13 seconds of the 5k World Record.

Fastest times for each year for the 5k, Since 2005, we have:
2006 - 26:35 - Micah Kogo
2007 - 26:46 - Bekele
2008 - 26:25 - Bekele
2009 - 26:46 - Bekele
2010 - 26:56 - Josphat Kipronono
2011 - 26:43 - Bekele
2012 - 26:51- Emanual Bett
2013 - 26:51 - Dejene Gebremeskel
2014 - 26:44 - Galen Rupp

So no one not named Bekele or Kogo have gotten within 39 seconds of the 10 WR since it was set, and we are generally going in the wrong direction there too.

The WR has been broken so much lately, because it was comparatively 'soft.' Now that it's in line with the other world records, it might get broken again, but it will be by pennies. If you look at Dennis Kimetto's splits:
(14:42, 14:42, 14:46, 14:26, 14:32, 14:30, 14:09, 14:42)
With the exception of his 14:09 his pacing was near perfect. Conditions were near perfect. He trains with some of the fastest ever (Geoffrey Mutai and a slew of 2:05 guys). Course was perfect. He was battling Emanuel Mutai who was perhaps the perfect match to him (though Emanuel's performances are heart-breakingly fast...as in he's ALWAYS 2nd place while layind down times that would beat previous WRs or Course Records). He dropped a 14:09 to break Mutai, but had NO acceleration at the end of the race. He was at his limits, and his limits are approaching human limits under the conditions we know (training philosophy etc.).
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Re: running a sub 2 hour marathon [sametime] [ In reply to ]
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Does this remind anyone of the 4 minute mile? I bet in 20 years people will be breaking 2 easily.

Vince
http://www.tribikerun.com
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Re: running a sub 2 hour marathon [vcorlew22] [ In reply to ]
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vcorlew22 wrote:
Does this remind anyone of the 4 minute mile? I bet in 20 years people will be breaking 2 easily.

Vince
http://www.tribikerun.com
\

I agree as well. With the rate at which is it being lowered and more and more interest on it, I predict it will be in less than 5 years.
I know I have this stat wrong but the idea is close. When Roger Bannister broke 4 mins in the mile 2 other people did it the same year as him. The following year it was like 25 did it.
It is all about the paradigm and belief. I remember when people said no one would go under an hour for the half marathon....
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Re: running a sub 2 hour marathon [johnnybefit] [ In reply to ]
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Ok, well....It took 12 years to go from 4:06 to sub-4, which is the same relative improvement needed here.

The problem is that training methods, technology, scientific understanding, incentive to perform, etc. are all lightyears ahead of the crude methods/science of the 50s. It, theoretically, could turn out that humans are training all wrong and have significant room for "natural" improvement. Obviously though the odds of that decrease with the increase in understanding and abundance of dedicated athletes.

The point about it being lowered rapidly is fool's evidence. It is being lowered rapidly because the last decade or so (less, really) is the first time in history that the world's best runners are running the marathon in their prime. No longer are 2:04-caliber guys running on the track until they inevitably lose a gear and move up to run a 2:08 marathon.

Barring pharmaceutical breakthroughs (possible) or a genetic freak beyond current comprehension (also possible, but unlikely given just how much better he'd have to be), sub-2 is decades away at the least

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Re: running a sub 2 hour marathon [Birdmantris] [ In reply to ]
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No matter what it will be fun to watch. I am still sticking to my 5 years or less prediction.
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Re: running a sub 2 hour marathon [johnnybefit] [ In reply to ]
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We'll have to revive this thread in 5 years then. I'll say its still north of 2:02:15

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Re: running a sub 2 hour marathon [Birdmantris] [ In reply to ]
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Birdmantris wrote:
We'll have to revive this thread in 5 years then. I'll say its still north of 2:02:15


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Re: running a sub 2 hour marathon [sametime] [ In reply to ]
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If you can develop skinsuits that have no comfort or heat dissipation downsides you can shave off about 30 seconds.

I think it might still be a long long time even then.

How much do their shoes weigh now? Maybe that could come down enough to shave another 30 seconds?



Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
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Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter
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Re: running a sub 2 hour marathon [jackmott] [ In reply to ]
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Thats actually a good point about the shoes. The adidas sponsored athletes that tend to be setting the records are wearing one of the heaviest flats out there. Of course, all else has to be equal (fit, responsiveness, comfort, etc.) for dropping weight to matter. Still room there for time savings though you'd think

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Re: running a sub 2 hour marathon [Birdmantris] [ In reply to ]
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Birdmantris wrote:
Thats actually a good point about the shoes. The adidas sponsored athletes that tend to be setting the records are wearing one of the heaviest flats out there. Of course, all else has to be equal (fit, responsiveness, comfort, etc.) for dropping weight to matter. Still room there for time savings though you'd think

It makes for a pretty simple engineering target too.
Duplicate the shape, cushioning/spring properties of the current adidas shoe, remove as much mass as possible. Boom, you go faster.

Not sure how much faster, I don't know if the shoe-ounce rule of thumb works well at their speed!



Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter
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Re: running a sub 2 hour marathon [scott8888] [ In reply to ]
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scott8888 wrote:
The problem with the marathon record is that many of the things listed needed to break the record are the same things that favor slow racing strategies. Put the best runners in the world on a dead flat course with pacers and the 'sit and kick' instinct will always win out. Encouraging them to work together in pace lines ect. like the article implies will be near impossible. Add on top the articles suggesting the runner will be young and fearless makes the teamwork aspect even harder to believe.

The article assumes an attempt at the WR. So, sit-and-kick and other strategic concerns regarding anything but the fastest possible time are not an issue. With the right monetary incentive, yes, marathoners will go for time vs place.

What about racing on a track? Track spikes. Easier pacing. Would not a WR marathon attempt on a track likely yield faster times currently than running on pavement with 90 and 180 degree turns and exposure to wind?
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Re: running a sub 2 hour marathon [kny] [ In reply to ]
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The turns might slow people down.
But you could build a HUGE track!
That is sort of what Berlin is though.
I don't know if a track surface would be quicker than pavement or not for a marathon. Interesting question.

kny wrote:
What about racing on a track? Track spikes. Easier pacing. Would not a WR marathon attempt on a track likely yield faster times currently than running on pavement with 90 and 180 degree turns and exposure to wind?



Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter
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Re: running a sub 2 hour marathon [kny] [ In reply to ]
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Track would probably be faster but has to be on the road to be IAAF approved. Wouldn't officially be a marthon

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Re: running a sub 2 hour marathon [Birdmantris] [ In reply to ]
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Birdmantris wrote:
Track would probably be faster but has to be on the road to be IAAF approved. Wouldn't officially be a marthon

Well, I guess if the goal is to see whether a human can run 26 miles, 385 yards in less than 2 hours, such arbitrary rules are kind of irrelevant.
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Re: running a sub 2 hour marathon [kny] [ In reply to ]
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If thats the goal, then yeah. I guess it depends who you ask and what you want to accomplish. But the reason it would never happen is because the marathon is officially a road event

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Re: running a sub 2 hour marathon [Birdmantris] [ In reply to ]
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Yes, I agree. A track WR marathon attempt will never happen because of the IAAF rule.

The crux of the article was about what it would take from body and conditions for optimal performance: air temperature, physique, drafting, .... Figured it worth mentioning that running on a track might help, too.

One Olympics recently started with a mile on the track and finished with another 500 meters. I wonder at what point IAAF says is too much track to be a road race.
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Re: running a sub 2 hour marathon [kny] [ In reply to ]
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ok so Most of the recent records were run on the Adidas Adios Boost, which is 7.1 ounces in size 7

If you shaved 2 ounces off of that shoe without any other negative side effects, napkin math suggests 45 seconds save

So we need really light shoes and skinsuits and a really good athlete and conditions, and maybe we get there



Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter
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Re: running a sub 2 hour marathon [sametime] [ In reply to ]
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I'd say 20 years. Maybe.

Chris
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Re: running a sub 2 hour marathon [kny] [ In reply to ]
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The rule says that the start and finish can be in an athletic arena, so that seems pretty ambiguous. Maybe the answer is polyurethane roads

FWIW, the world record for a road 10K is 26:44 and most "all-time" elites seem to be less than 30 seconds off their track times. Maybe 4-5 seconds a mile for the track then? That might get you to 2:01 right now

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Re: running a sub 2 hour marathon [Birdmantris] [ In reply to ]
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A road race has to be measured shortest distance around turns and 0.1% long, correct? So, a track marathon would be a little shorter, too, right?
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