At this year's Muskoka 70.3 the fastest AG bike splits were in the 2:28 to 2:30 range. Given those times were based on an over long 94 km course, I suppose it is possible that there could be a couple of sub 5 hour bike splits, but I think it is just as likely that nobody goes sub 5. Remember, there is no pro race at IM Muskoka.

You might see some sub 5 hour rides, but you'll probably see them walking the run ;)

I got busy at the local Olympic Tri yesterday...I was going to start a thread to pressurize Nate Thomas to go to Muskoka and kick some ass (and bike sub 5 for sure).

Seriously though, I rode 2:41 for the half. Substract 7ish minutes for 4K and that's the say 2:33ish range I rode at Tremblant 70.3 both off similar watts (I almost had the same swim split to the second and same run split within a minute). Now also keep in mind that the full Muskoka 180K will have less elevation than 1xMuskoka (even if it was shortened to 90k). So I don't see why the top age groupers would not have similar times to Tremblant IM as I don't think the full 180K at Muskoka will be that much harder. Maybe a touch slower, but there should be a few sub 5 guys

Dev, you are more of a watts/kg guy rather than a watts/cda guy, so Muskoka favors you over Tremblant from a competitive standpoint. I suspect that most people would have significantly longer bike splits at Muskoka than Tremblant, especially bigger riders. I knew I should have started my beer and ice cream taper sooner.

thanks all

has anyone used best bike split for this ? i cannot find the course on there ?

Very true...plus I was on the no ice cream plan during Muskoka and on the full Macca approved cabbage and water diet to get the weight down for Whistler. Turns out I should have been fatter for Whistler because being lean had zero advantage on that day!

By the way, I rode 1:03.50 (ride time on Garmin) off 242W NP at the Cornwall Olympic tri. That course had 4 U turns and three places per 10K loop that you had to brake and lose speed. it also had 250M of vertical (hard to believe). I think I can take it under an hour on a flat course with less braking and stopping....we won't talk about my swim and run splits....I'll only say that they included transitions (swim had a long transition, run transition was quick enough probably around 80-90 seconds so I don't have an excuse for my time).

Good luck to all you guys doing Muskoka. I'll bet to "watch" the action unfold after we're done at Zell Am See. There better be some solid sub 5 hour bike splits from the ST crowd (sub 5 hour run to go with that would be a bonus....)

Dev, 240W on ~ 1hour suggests you have a pretty good position - need to get that bucket out of the wind. :-) I still have almost a week to drop 10 lbs.

It's on there under muskoka, has me at 5:33 on 185w, trying to go conservative, gonna be a tough day

Ha!! Several months ago you told me to switch to Muskoka - 2nd guessing my decision now!! I rode 2:35 at Muskoka two years ago and think that a time of around 5 hrs should be doable by the top guys. Don't be like me at IMMT - be able to back up the bike with a strong run! Not sure on weather, but bet on it being cooler than IMMT.

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Never too late....you can always go for the sub 5 hour bike at IM Tahoe with a 3:30 run....weather will be a lot colder!!!

Also cumulative effect of riding on crappier roads vs immt pristine conditions will make the second lap harder.

Did a race sim workout on the course yesterday. I don't have the exact water temp, and I was swimming in fairy lake, but since penn lake flows into fairy I assume the temps are similar and the water was nice. Wetsuit optional for sure, but I expect that it will cool down a little this week with the temps cooling off more at night. The short section of new pavement coming out of Baysville was also a welcome improvement to the course.

as in possibly above 76? I would have assumed low 70's...do I need to bring a swimskin?

final bib list up, 40-44m age group looks huge...rough guess a little of 200 of the 1400 registered. 45-49m close to 200 as well, then around 125 for 35-39m. About half the entire field is 30-45m

My guess is chance is very low. Night temps are cool enough to drive it down to 75.99999999999999 F. But what the heck, bring a swim skin.

Highly doubt it, I think it may stay warm enough to have the choice to wear a wetsuit or go without (ie not wetsuit mandatory) but no chance of being a non-wetsuit swim. There is cold water down there, lakes haven't turned in a while but it's been pretty windy the last couple days. That being said I'm bringing a swimskin because you just never know...and it doesn't take up much space! The water is also the lowest I've seen for this time of year so bring your goggles that can see through weeds for the last 200m to the finish...and expect to see lots of people standing up and walking on the sand bars on the left side as you enter deerhurst bay.

I wonder how this affects Kona slots?

how clear is the water ? clear enough to see my stroke if that makes sense ?

thanks

Depends on how sunny it is.


But should be very clear water until the exit turn.

water is very clear. I have swam in it every day since I got here on Tuesday but I have not really seen the sun very much!

I hope you are correct on this logic. I'm not as strong on the bike as two years ago in Tremblant (4:53), but I'm not far off.

Ken

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"the trick is to keep losing weight until your friends and family ask you if you've been sick. then you know you're within 10 pounds. if they start whispering to each other, wondering if you've got cancer or aids, you're within 5. when they actually do an intervention, you're at race weight." - Slowman

I respectfully disagree with Dev. I rode 2:17 at MT70.3 and 2:31 at Muskoka 70.3 off very similar watts. I think Dev clearly has much better W/kg than W/Cda, which may explain the relative difference as I seem to be pretty even on those fronts. If the Muskoka course is a full 180k, which seems like a big IF these days in WTC-land, I think a VERY select few will go sub-5 at Muskoka, and an EVEN more select few will be able to run off of that. Redtdi may be one of those very select few though based on his previous results. Will be interesting to see what happens though! :)

Just to anyone in general if you need bike stuff or gels etc the local guys at "tri sports" just as you leave Huntsville are awesome.
Super nice guys who have raced a bit (I believe the owner is racing) and been around for over 20 years or so.

No affiliation, i lost my cone spacer thingy for my p5 and they were able to help.

Maurice

I think the reality will land somewhere in between what we both found, but you are certainly right that I do better off the same watts on hill courses with steep sections relative to larger riders who are more aero for their relative weight and top line watts.

Hopefully all of you are having a great time in Muskoka and I hope to be there next year.

I just rode the bike course at Zell Am See....its gonna be a massive draft fest for the first 20K then the next 10K things will gradually split apart and things will be a non issue. The final 3K out of the 13K climb is pretty well all 13-15% grade and it's a really suffer fest. ....but then the final 40K of the race will again be super fast and lots of drafting will take place. Will be fun to tune in online on Sunday and see all you guys having good days in Muskoka. The weather looks pretty perfect.

Does anybody know whether the bike special needs is at a top of bill? Just debating about my nutrition plan and if special needs is a very fast stop than that would make a difference.