or triathlon training has tapped into running talent not seen as a collegiate level elite, which I would say is unusual..

Ok, if it were common everyone would be doing it. How unusual is it to win a triathlon gold medal? How about for an American? How unusual is that group? Look, she is obviously a much better runner than she was in college, I don't know why that is, could be lots of reasonable reasons. But it is undeniable that she is "now" one of the top lets say 10 to 15(probably higher, but lets be conservative) American runners, and all on triathlon training. I just hope that she can translate her 31 high 10k speed, or her recent 10 miler, to the marathon distance. First one out the gate can go either way, and hopefully last weekend did not wreck her chances. We will all know soon!!!

That wasn't Ward's first marathon. Didn't he write his masters thesis on marathon pacing? How many experienced elite marathoners pull off that type of pacing regularly? I'd be very impressed if Jorgensen could pull a Ward on Sunday in her debut.

I like Dave's prediction. I'd like to see Jorgensen finish with a smile on her face running strong at the end.

Look, she is obviously a much better runner than she was in college, I don't know why that is, could be lots of reasonable reasons

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She says (along with her coach) it's because she is much stronger than she was in college. 10 pounds of muscle she has put on since college. Likely means she's more healthier and been able to reach full potential much more.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

if the lead pack takes off after getting off the bridge, ward is not going with them. he's not capable of banging out a bunch fo 4:50 or faster early miles and surviving. he probably wants the lead pack to take off and cause carnage with a lot of the sub 2:08 guys so he can pick them off in the last 10k with a smart even pacing strategy.

Can you get slowman to put up a poll:

How long does Gwen run with the lead pack at NYC marathon

0 miles
1-2 miles
2-5 miles
5-8 miles
8-13 miles


Dev

I'm sorry, but never before has an elite, world class runner claimed that gaining 10 pounds helped them. Also, she is so lean that I find it unfathomable that she has gained 10 pounds. I look at pictures of her running at Wisconsin and she is lean then, too, but no more so than today.

In all likelihood she is faster now because she is a full-time professional athlete wholly dedicated to the cause, which was not the case in college.

Still, it's unprecedented, to go from a good but not extraordinary collegiate level runner to head and shoulders superior at running to all others in triathlon. It's like a good college swimmer, the dime a dozen every year who could qualify for NCAAs but not for Olympic Trials, heading over to triathlon and becoming the best swimmer in the sport by a large margin. It's unprecedented.

I'd suggest the poll ask "How long do you think Gwen should run with the lead pack assuming the pace is similar to the 1:12:56 halfway split from last year"

I can't predict what she will do, but I can be a keyboard coach and answer a question about what I think she should do. ;)

I think you are missing why the 10 pounds is important. It's not for running purposes but to handle the demands of swimming biking and running.

Thus relates to your final point of being able to train properly and injury free.

That's far far more important than being lean.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I understand what you're saying but I don't buy it. So adding 10 pounds has helped her remain injury free and "train properly"? Was she "slow" in college because she was frequently injured? "Proper training" has a high bar to overcome in order to offset the 10 extra pounds of weight to carry.

Anyway, I don't believe for a second she has gained 10 pounds.

"I'm sorry, but never before has an elite, world class runner claimed that gaining 10 pounds helped them."


I see (and respect!) your point, but I disagree strongly based on coaching lots of elite female runners. Lean female athletes often improve by a ton by putting on weight, likely because it coincides with fueling that lets them recover and stay healthy. This article I wrote kinda gets to the heart of the issue:


http://www.trailrunnermag.com/health/daily-nutrition/2097-the-nutrition-secret-of-the-pros


"The dinner table is a great way to tell how long a runner’s career will be. The eaters last. The skimpers may be fast, but probably not for long."

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David Roche
Some Work, All Play podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/...ll-play/id1521532868
Coaching: https://swaprunning.com/

You can believe whatever the hell you want to. I'll take her and her coach's word that she has gained weight over yours that is based on photos.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Everyone always thinks for running it's the skinnier the better. Well, thats not true. I myself once was way too light to run to my potential. I was underfueled, didn't recover, struggled to train because of not existing energy and so on. After gaining more than 10 pounds I'm running better than ever.

Yeah some Kenyans are bulit like sticks but for westernerd being a bit heavier is often the way to go. Look at Chris Solinsky or Andy Vernon. If they could race better on lesser punds I'm sure they would do it. These guys are extreme examples. But even Galen Rupp, despite being lean, is no walking skeleton

Gwen is probably already at her best running weight. If she was a running specialist I don't think she could be much lighter.

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10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40

I think there's something to be said about NOT running 70+ MPW. But still having a HUGE engine because your biking and running and strength training another 15 hours a week. Can she run here marathon potential. No. She would need a lot more mileage and have to assume a lot more risk. But I think she'll run extremely well.

I suspect she'll go out with the pack if it goes out conservative (tactical) and just enjoy herself. Then as there are surges, allow herself to drop back. Find a comfortable low tempo pace, then put what she has left into it. I'm not sure what those paces are exactly. IF she had does a 70.3 previously, we'd have a good data point for her marathonish pace. She's a little tall, so a open marathon wouldn't necessarily suit her well. She's not optimized for it. I would be a little surprised if she doesn't run under 2:40.

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TrainingBible Coaching
http://www.trainingbible.com

I agree with this. She is lean, lean, lean. I'm a bit flabbergasted to hear her say she's put on 10 pounds, because I don't see how that could be.

I suspect we'll see a solid, but somewhat anti-climactic 2:36-2:37 this weekend. We won't see much or any of her because she'll pace for a 2:32ish and not be part of the televised lead group. And she'll fade in the final 10K but not fall apart, ending in a very solid 2:36:41.

So, take that. No point in even watching now.

You mean like Brownlee dropping 4 minutes off his 10k time in two years. That sort of unprecedented improvement?

I agree. Does anyone have a before and after pic of those 10 pounds?

 

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/kj

http://kjmcawesome.tumblr.com/

your unprecedented comment is a little off. first, she was a lot better than good -- she was an all-american and ran 15:52 (15:55 indoors, which is empirically faster) -- and clearly wasn't fully focused on running (she was busy swimming for much of her collegiate life). how much faster do you think she would have run had she spent 5 years running xc, winter and spring track like almost every other top collegiate runner? sub 15:30?

second, how many sub 16 minute 5k collegiate runners, who also participated in another sport in college, have transitioned over to itu racing? that background is completely unprecedented. how many collegiate sub 16 5k women who were fully focused on running have moved over to itu racing? summer cook probably is the 2nd fastest american runner in itu and her prs were 16:17 and 35:27. she also has made an enormous improvement in her running after training full-time for triathlons.

To put that in perspective the Olympic A standard for 5k was 15:24 this year. You could get in to the US trials final with a 15:43.

..

You're missing the point. The genesis of this aspect of this thread (vs time predictions, will she run at the front, ....) was Monty saying that she has the potential to go sub-2:20, to which the response was "what? you think she can be America's greatest ever marathoner? Based on what? Her open running times, her 32 minute 10K, 53 minute 10 miler, her collegiate record, her being the best runner in triathlons? Clearly she's incredible, but the best marathoner America has ever produced? Really?"

She was excellent in college. But there are 25 like her every year at that level of excellence. She didn't even make US Olympic Trials. She graduated from college and moved to a desk job. USATF was not out hunting her down to pursue her talent. She was excellent but unremarkable. She clearly became remarkable. It still stretches imagination to suggest she could be America's greatest ever marathoner. If she had that talent one would expect to have seen a bit more out of her in college. Nonetheless, maybe she could be someday. She has the same build as a certain marathon world record holder from Britain. And of a certain former world record holder before her from Norway....

I think the biggest factor is that Gwen only ran for 2 years in college. I think it is silly to think that after 2 years she would have reached her potential in running. Now after being a full time professional athlete for 5 years, it is not outrageous to think she is closer to her running potential.

sub 2:20 is getting out there on the tippy end (especially considering how many of the sub 2:20 women were doped). there are a lot of super talented women who never went sub 2:20. even shalane, who is every bit as talented as gwen (probably more so) as a runner and who has been a full-time professional runner her entire post collegiate life "only" has gone 2:21. my point was that i think you (and others) are misguided labeling her as an ok (or whatever less than exceptional adjective you want to use) collegiate runner solely based on the fact that she "only" ran 15:52. that clearly wasn't anything close to what her potential was in college as it wasn't her focus. in any event, 15:52 IS fast for someone switching over to itu. who was faster in college?

Of course it is. And probably no one. And that plus the fact that she also swam is why USAT came knocking on her door and USATF did not.

She's a great triathlon runner. The best ever. So good that you've now got people talking that she could be just as great a stand-alone runner, which is a bit overexuberant in my opinion. And, frankly, I was really damn impressed with her 53:19 and beating Sara Hall at the 10 miler national champs.

Who are you going to believe? Me or your lying eyes?

shivermetimbers wrote:

I think she will blow up and go 2:45......not enough race pace mileage.

Maybe that's what happened to Nicola Spirig in 2014 in Zürich. From the pre-race pro write-up:Sounds like a "Beat 2:31:25." Go Gwen! :)