I do think you're taking a much bigger hit on the swim that you think. A 46 min HIM swim, unless the conditions were atrocious, is really slow, and the reality is that swimmers in that range often waste a ton of energy just even keeping that slow pace, so you're likely burning a lot more matches than you think in the swim, hence the 'off' bike.

It's hard to gauge your run target without knowing how well you run an open 5k or HM - if you're only a 1:50 open HM runner, than you'd be running fine, but if you're a 1:35 open HM runner that slows to 2:05 in the HM, something's very off.

70.3 NC will have an incoming tide in a channel, your swim will be BLAZING, take 10mins off your 70.3 LP time easy, it does have a long run up to T1, bike is flat, you should be able to pull off at least a 2:20ish pending no hard winds with that FTP and previous split. It’s a ridiculously easy course, especially for the weakest of the weak swimmers.
Target 83% FTP on the bike see how you feel at the 14, 28, and 42 mile marks. Make some minor adjustments as you feel, what’s sucks about a flat bike course is no real break from pedaling.

I think what the other two posters said about your swim is accurate.

I think you biked too hard. If I understood correctly, you expected to hold the 40 mile power for 56 miles, after swimming for 46 minutes. That seems like expecting too much to me. My suspicion regarding your heart rate is that it was higher normal because had already swum.

My wild assed suggestion would be to reduce the power goal to 170.

My question for you is, how reasonable was the goal of a 2:05 run? With the hindsight of a "good" swim and a bike, maybe that was a bit of a stretch. Also, only having one goal puts you in a binary position. Hit it and feel great; miss it and feel miserable. It might make more sense to set 3 goals for your run. One that you fairly confident you can hit. A second that a little bit of a stretch - like if you're having a really good day. And a third that a real stretch.

I have been at this for 5 years now and can't seem to get it all together for a HIM. I am just an avg MOP 47yo with no big ambitions for a KQ but would like to perform better at HIM. I could use some advice on my bike split and would love to hear what some of the ST experts have to say.

I did Lake Placid 70.3 on Sept 10th and my big goal for the day (outside of getting out of the lake alive) was a sub 2 hour run split and I ended up slugging my way to a disappointing 2:05.

I did a FTP test today to find out just were I am at, I tested 245w/168bpm, I am 5'7" 162#, 3.32w/kg.

For Placid bike split I averaged 178w at 155BPM for a 2:57 split time.

I did not use FTP to determine what power to target for the race. I had only a guess at what my FTP even was going in and didn't want to test before hand either. I went off avg power I held on long rides and especially what I could hold on a hard 40 miler which was 200w at very low 140's HR. Last long brick I did 2 weeks out was 62 miles 2900' elv, at 178w avg HR 139 ran 6 miles off the bike at 8:18 pace 161HR (Open HM HR is low 170's). I felt confident at 175-180w and a 8:30 pace for the run, I actually felt 175-180w was pretty conservative?

I swam 46 minutes at Placid and actually felt like I had a good swim. My Avg HR on the bike at Placid was close to 15bpm HIGHER than what I would avg on my long rides averaging the same power averages. My HR was even throughout the ride too,153 through mile 40 155 for the last 16 miles climbing back into Lake Placid.

I am no faster a swimmer today than I was in 2014, literally. I admit I do not put as much effort into it as the other two and swim volume suffered some in training going into Placid but I got at least 2 swims in a week. I am now starting to realize that if I want to race a solid HIM I need to fix my swim and plan to really focus on it this winter.

Is the swim taking this much out of me? I felt fine on the bike and even on the climbs didn't feel like I was lighting any matches.

I am now thinking of heading down to North Carolina on 10-21 to make another go at it. I have a solid 3 weeks ahead to train and I could some advice on where should I focus my time to have a good run split? What should I shoot for on the bike for NC? I am going to want to crush an open flat bike course like NC has, I could use some feedback on what to target for pwr and HR so I can run well off the bike.

Thank You

I do think you're taking a much bigger hit on the swim that you think. A 46 min HIM swim, unless the conditions were atrocious, is really slow, and the reality is that swimmers in that range often waste a ton of energy just even keeping that slow pace, so you're likely burning a lot more matches than you think in the swim, hence the 'off' bike.

It's hard to gauge your run target without knowing how well you run an open 5k or HM - if you're only a 1:50 open HM runner, than you'd be running fine, but if you're a 1:35 open HM runner that slows to 2:05 in the HM, something's very off.

Is the swim taking this much out of me?

Possibly yes. This is something that has only become apparent to me this season. I've often wondered why I seemed to bike quicker than guys who smashed me in training, spoke to one after a recent 70.3 and he said he struggled on the bike because he felt hammered by the swim, someone else said he struggled on the run because of the swim! I'm like WTF! People are still feeling the pain from the swim on the run!? I'd normally come in 27, 28mins feeling relatively fresh and by km 5 on the bike, my HR is down. I just assumed weaker swimmers had the same experiences, but just went slower. Obviously this isn't the case and I guess the swim is more important than a lot of people think. i.e someone swimming 33mins is 6mins slower than me, but perhaps that could be as much as 10 or 15mins if they are fatigued for the bike.

Quick question(s) for you:
Do you ever bike hard immediately after swimming? How much kicking do you do during your weekly swim workouts?

The higher HR is about adrenaline and probably being rested going into the race. I see higher HRs all the time from my athletes when they are racing.

I do some kick set drills but not a lot. I don't kick much swimming and barely at all in a wetsuit.

Do you have your athletes account for the higher HR in races for pacing? I am used to having a higher HR in racing than training, the difference has been less since I first started. TBH the worst is probably at the swim start it usually takes a good 250-400 yds for me to settle down at the beginning.

BTW I don't feel wiped out after the swim in T1, and for the most part I feel fine on the bike. While my HR is higher in a race I still stay in that high Z2 low Z3 range.

I have to agree with this as well. Even as harsh as it sounds.

That doesn't mean there's not hope. It just means that you should work with a swim coach and you can probably learn a lot, and get out of the water fresher, which will result in a faster bike split, with less effort, and a faster run split.

Of course, that's if this hobby is worth that much to you.

Do you race with a powermeter?

Do you do hard bikes after hard swims? ;-)

Not sure i agree on the speed of NC.
Its point to point so you could get 40 miles if headwind like last year.

Last year, I raced a little over 200w at 167lbs and came in with a 2:40 something.

I think with no wind and my cda, I was a low 2:20 at 205w (per bbs). When I look at bbs, with "generic" weather in NC, and lake placid as race day, my races come out 18 minutes apart... So a 2:40 placid turns into a 2:22 nc (with no wind).
Id guess 2:57 becomes 2:40 - 2:45 not 2:20.

Aahh, that is a workout I specifically wanted to do before Placid. It is tough to duplicate in training since you don't have a transition to run to with your bike racked.

Sept 3, did 2300 yd OWS at 57 minutes, got on the bike rode one hour at 183w average and Avg HR was 138 BPM.