Yes you are right. I was wrong in saying that everyone has the potential to get to cat2. What I should have said was that 50% has the potential.

My comments here were in regards to Andy Coggans definition of "actually training" - which I took to mean "getting the absolute max out of yourself with many years of brutal training and diet". The very few who do this will aquire both the physical and mental skills to at least *get to* cat2.

But I still believe that the 4.1w/kg of the OP are closer to getting him to cat2 than to be an average cat3. (Given that he aquires decent technical and tactical skills).

Most of these guys hitting 300w are heavy.

320 watts, 145 pounds. Heavy?

3-4x a week of structured riding and keep run volume to 20 mpw.

Ha..Ha...Paul...I already told you that.
I hope that all is well with you...

I am...maybe this year

Beach to Battleship cycling course record...many years old.
At 55 years still over 30mph for 10miles.
med. ride today on Strava...and I'm 168 lbs

I hate my genes - maybe I should be riding 12 hrs a week and not 7 😔

I don't ride much more than you...but yes...and sorry...I suppose I got good genes. At 41 years...I was still at 83 VO2 Max...ha...ha.

Brilliant!

There are a lot of replies about what you "can" do and whether or not it's possible.

While some of them may be right, you're not going to get anywhere accepting defeat from the get-go. Get to work.

I started 2016 with a weight of 70 kg and FTP of 242W. Built that to 296W over 5 months. Crashed my bike in August and broke my collarbone, bought a smart trainer and got to work indoors in early Sept. FTP dropped to 275W after the crash and I built back to 296W after a month of hard work and volume. I've been riding 7-8hrs/week since September. November test result: 315W. Tested again this morning and resulted in 330W. My gains are getting smaller and smaller, but they are gains.

Spend some time building your 2x20 power, do some long (2.5-3 hr) rides with 4-5x20-30min in sweet spot, and just embrace the suck.

Only way you'll find out if you can get to 400W is to harden up and get after it.

TR was quoted as saying "If you think you can, or, can't, you are right"
That's on my key chain that holds my gym membership card.

I would suggest "smart" work which does include hard work. You are taking a journey that will take you to destinations unknown (today at least).

If you enjoy the whole journey, then you'll "win" no matter what your peak FTP is.

---

I saw this on a white board in a window box at my daughters middle school...
List of what life owes you:
1. __________
2. __________
3. __________

I guess I was lucky to be one of those 'off the couch' guys on the bike. I got to around 310 or so watts at the end of my first season and 340 by the second season. Since then (about 7 years now) I've plateaued and been 'stuck' around an FTP of 340. That said, I haven't done a ton or harder work to make many gains, but I think getting to 400 (at least for me) would be damn near impossible. High VO2 max, genes, and other variables are what is needed to get to that level (along with lots of consistent, hard training).

---

Blog: http://262toboylstonstreet.blogspot.com/
https://twitter.com/NateThomasTri
Coaching: https://bybtricoaching.com/ - accepting athletes for 2023

Congrats

Did you run and swim and to what extent during those periods where you boosted ftp?

Thanks! Been a lot of hard work and suffering, but definitely worth it.

I couldn't swim until December because of the collarbone break, but my run mileage dropped to about 25 MPW for November/December. I'm back up to 35-40 MPW now and have been there since late January. Starting to ramp that up more now to around 45-50 MPW. Swim volume has been higher than previous years so far in 2017. Still building.

I wouldn't claim to be an "off the couch" cyclist, but within 2.5yrs of pretty casual bike training (probably avg 4-6hrs/wk on the trainer), I was at 300w for 20' @ 70kg.

Now, with some guidance and 4-6hr/week, I'm at 343w for 20' for 4.78w/kg. It helps being 19yrs old (started casually riding at 16). Next goal is 5w/kg.

400w seems like another world at this point. I don't ride nearly enough to even consider it a possibility. I could see 370 for 20' being possible. If I get there, I'll consider ditching running and swimming a lot less, slimming down the upper body and cycling exclusively.

To the OP - FWIW I don't consider myself to be exceptionally talented. Consistency over time is key.

---

"Don't you have to go be stupid somewhere else?"..."Not until 4!"

Don't ask, just do it, you never know, maybe you are one of a million talent+great DNA, it is all in our heads, work hard believe, and it will happen.

Who cares about 50% of 90% statistical jerk-off analysis paralysis. That stuff only mentally limits you, If all people would look an numbers we would be society of average dudes, not a single super dude...

You must not make it to the gym that often since the quote is Henry Ford's; not TR's.

---

Straightenin' the curves; Flattenin' the hills
------------------------------------------------------------
Coached by Mike Plumb @ TriPower MultiSports
https://www.strava.com/athletes/1149072 - https://www.instagram.com/thoswoods/

OOPS. well, I knew it was someone who accomplished more in a day than I will in a lifetime. HF doesn't seem as quotable as TR; I should'da looked it up. :-|

since I failed on this one, I shall embrace the opportunity to begin again, more intelligently

---

I saw this on a white board in a window box at my daughters middle school...
List of what life owes you:
1. __________
2. __________
3. __________

smh re: all the self-appointed internet police who cast doubts. dude may not be Greg Lemond, but dude raced with Lemond on the national team. He is certainly not an average joe by the virtue of being in the following picture.

The guy behind Dave

http://www.newsobserver.com/...article10288739.html

Haha this made my day.

---

https://twitter.com/mungub

Interesting you hit your near peak with that amount of training. I'm probably about 5 years

From reading this I'm not expecting to get much better :(

I did a similar progression in a few months. And that was it. I thought I was going to be pro level in no time at the rate I was improving...

Not casting doubts, just generally interested. When some dude on the internet posts those kinds of numbers you expect there to be some real race results to back them up and it sounds like that's the case.

I've been at cycling for about 12 years, and reached what I thought was a permanent ceiling a few times....then busted through unintentionally. I'm 44 so the odds of another breakthrough are probably none at this point. But I was stuck at about 300W for like 3 years...I was fully resigned to being a Cat 4 lifer. Then a switch flipped in my physiology (not a doping euphemism, I'm clean), and I was 40-50W higher and Cat 2 within a year. It wasn't just training, because I've always been methodical at training. And I've been an endurance athlete since the age of 12 or so. (running and rowing before cycling), so 20-30 hour training weeks were never a foreign concept to me. But something became more efficient in my physiology because now my cycling Watts are close to what my rowing Watts would suggest I'm capable of.