You should be winning everything, no excuse.

Might want to read this thread.
http://forum.slowtwitch.com/forum/Slowtwitch_Forums_C1/Triathlon_Forum_F1/A_question_for_the_physiology_experts%3F__P6152321/#p6152321

I was on my way there last year but have since spent half a year unwell. Coming out the other side now and would be lucky to hold 250 I reckon at the moment.

I didn't get into measuring my power until a fair few seasons of ironman racing had passed. First one I did about 5 years ago no was 290. I raced last year with an FTP of 363. I've never strung a block of multiple years together, so I'll get fit, race and then get drunk for a few months / kick back before doing it all again. I think I could have hit 400 had I put together back to back years but that's me - don't have the mental motivation for that. It's a hobby not my lifestyle per se.

Anyway. I'm a heavier guy at around 200lbs race weight so my FTP needs to be that much higher. It was good enough for a 5 hour dead bike split in Roth last year, so just having a high number isn't the whole picture - think aerodynamics and equipment too.

Can you get to 400? Given you are a racing snake I'd say it's unlikely unless you have an amazing set of genetics. Unless you are doing hill climb championships I would say don't get too infatuated with that number. It's about what you can sustain over a distance, can you stay tucked down, can you put that power down in an aero tuck for instance etc etc. As others have mentioned, only one way to find out. Lots of pain. Good luck.

Who are these unicorns who go from couch to 300 watts in 3 months? Seriously?!!!
I have been sitting on 260 watts for years at around 7hrs week biking. And i won't even hit that figure during a sprint tri so I'm probably overestimating my own ftp. I'm a fop biker but all these 300 watt bastards I assume are topping their age group bike splits

Who are all these guys that are sitting on 260 watts? :-)
I am down much lower with 9 to 10 hours for most weeks in cycling. :-)

Oh well I had my day in the limelight competing and winning in something different years ago. Nevertheless, I do love training and staying in shape.

1. The denominator also enters into the equation. IOW, yeah, if you're overfat, you won't achieve your true potential.

2. I didn't consult the power profiling tables before I made my original comment - in fact, I haven't looked at them in several years, as they have been made obsolete by the power-duration stanards in WKO4 - but as it turns out, 3.9 W/kg is smack-dab in the middle, with 4.1 W/kg of course just above it.

https://www.trainingpeaks.com/blog/power-profiling/

The "still weigh the same" is a giveaway that you are not Greg Lemond!

Maybe it is 50% of people who actually train seriously and who also eat properly to get to lean body mass. Most people never do enough of both. If that is the 50 percentile of those that actually do both (train seriously, eat seriously), then this makes sense. I think what he's saying is that it is within the genetic ability of 50% of humans, its just that most people don't do the work to get to their genetic potential. It's like passing high school math is easily in the genetic potential of 50% of humans and probably 1st year and 2nd year calculus is too, but nearly everyone gets through high school math, but they don't apply themselves in math further to get through second year calculus....but they can probably do it with enough time/effort.

People who actually train end up as Cat 2? Funny how most of the Cat 3s I know train hard and are permanently stuck there and unlikely to ever move higher. It's kind of hard to find hard stats, but I did find that there are about 2,700 Cat 1s & Cat 2s in the US. I couldn't find how many USA cycling members participate in road races, but there are 66,000 members, if we assume that half of those are road racers, that means that 92% of the membership are Cat 3 or lower. So if most of those 92% were to train properly they'd make it to Cat 1 or 2? Not buying it at all.

OK, let's hear some race results. What's your method for estimating FTP? And what power meter do you use?

I follow a local guy on Strava whose numbers are almost as good as yours, about the same FTP, and he weighs significantly more. He's a current master's track world champion.

Agreed. Training and good power numbers does not mean that you can actually race well. And generally you need to have some modicum of racing sense to become a 2.

Just "training" isn't going to cut it.

I completely agree. That was what I thought was included in "actually train".

Think it depends on your definition of "train". If you mean doing some sort of cycling most days and cycling hard a couple of times per week, then yes I agree plenty of those people will plateau at Cat 3 or below. If you define it as somebody following a high volume, structured, progressive training programme, sticking at it consistently for a couple of years or longer, and also paying close attention to their diet and recovery, then I don't think many people do that and it wouldn't surprise me to know that those who do ought on average to be able to get to ~4W/kg.

4 w/kg does not equal cat 2. You have to actually go out and win/podium bike races to make it to that level.

Yes! That was what I was trying to say. Most don´t work hard enough for long enough to reach their true potential. Cat 3 is "average" but an average person who trains 20h/w for ten years (which I thought you meant by "actually train") will, in my experience, reach higher than mop cat3.

Sorry I should have put that in quotation marks. In the context of "achieving your true potential" I took Coggans expression "actually train" to mean "training 20h/w for ten years and doing 40 races per year".

If everybody did that then of course the goal posts for reaching cat2 would move.

Yes, he knows it's a necessary-but-not-sufficient condition. We're talking about training FTP here, not the entire suite of bike racing skills. I don't think the OP is even a roadie.

Yeah, got him confused with fb, who seems confused about what a cat 2 actually is.

The US is not my primary racing scene, but I've done about 20 races in the most competitive region of the US (in categories ranging from cat 3 to cat1) so I do think I have a decent grasp of the level of a cat2.

With an FTP of ~4w/kg I would gather enough points in cat3 over a season to qualify for cat 2. Granted, since I've done about a 1000 races in Europe I have more race craft than most.

Otoh 4 w/kg would get you dropped in most cat2 races no matter your skill level.
To be in any way competitive there my guess is you would need at least 4.4 w/kg, a decent sprint and good race craft. Does that sound about right?

I'm the same way. :(
Road racer on and off for years with very minimal and non-structured training. Started training properly on TR 2.5 years ago, I've gone from 225 ftp up to about 270, but haven't really improved that over the past year (7-9 hours per week riding TR). I'm 43, weigh 175 at race weight. I've accepted the fact that I probably am not gonna get much higher ftp, so now focusing on some longer endurance training rides and try to diet better.

:(

Yeah one of my buddies is a Cat 1 and roughly 380w FTP at same weight. Just got 2nd Overall at a stage race in Northern California.

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Going from memory on the cadence vs. power vs. rpe thread he started a while back, there was a photo of him in his youth with Greg Lemond and others at a worlds or similar event. His stats probably aren't representative for discussion of the OP's training status.

The level of a cat 2 was not your initial assertion. Your initial assertion was that which would seem to imply that anyone that hasn't made it to a cat 2 (the overwhelming majority) simply haven't trained. Obviously those that have made it are not representative of those that haven't, but again, those that haven't are far more representative of bike racers than those that have.

Thus, I think your initial assertion is wrong and as you allude to in your second paragraph, far more comes into play than ftp.

I don't think it takes that much. More like 2 h/d for 5 y...after that you'd be looking at really marginal gains (or if you started young enough, the benefits of maturation).

Dean??? If so, he's a beast! I've gone up against him in a few indoor TT's - our w/kg are pretty similar but the overall power almost always wins (unless we're talking Mt. Washington or the like).

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