No sorry- I doubt it.

I think you can hold those Yassos + 5 minutes.
My guess is you can go 3:03.

Also - I would take that tempo run and double the distance. That implies that you can run 20 miles at 6:53 pace. 20 miles is not 26.

If you go through 13.1 in 1:29 (good pace for 2:59:30) - you will probably blow up an run 3:06.

I would go through 13.1 in 1:30:30.
If you feel good you might be able to push the pace from 18-22 and get back to 3:00 pace.
More likely you will come through in 3:03- still a massive PR.

I am really really REALLY rooting for you, but...I don't think sub-3 is in the cards, and that you should run more conservatively for a fun race experience.

Your mileage is solid enough, and you are clearly talented. However, your long runs are not fast enough and your workouts don't indicate that your speed will make up for it.

The biggest obstacle for you will likely by musculo-skeletal breakdown later in the race if you try to sustain faster paces. Your body is not equipped to handle 6:5x paces for more than 18ish miles I would guess (due to less fast long runs). It could be an unpleasant experience after that point.

For future training cycles, remember that the long run is the key of all marathon training. It is more important that they are quality than they are long (though both are helpful). Yours aren't all that long, and they aren't all that quality. I think you could do it with just a bit more training though.

Crush it!!! I hope I'm wrong!

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David Roche
Some Work, All Play podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/...ll-play/id1521532868
Coaching: https://swaprunning.com/

I think you are just shy of the sub 3 right now. Mileage just a little low and not enough and not long enough to get you through the last 10k.

I had a 3:12 PR when I was 40 and went for my first sub 3 when I was 41. I was on target for 2:58 through mile 19, but faded and finished in 3:01. I had been doing similar weekly mileage as you. I then bumped up the mileage and did long runs up to 23 miles. I also did my long runs about 45 seconds slower than my goal pace so more like 7:35's. 6 months later after that 3:01 I got my first sub 3 with a 2:59.

I do think you should just go for it and see how it goes. You might just have a great day. Personally I think you should go 1:29 the first half. Negative splits are very difficult in the marathon and your weekly mileage isn't quite up there to be able to push harder the 2nd half. It wasn't till I started doing 70 mpw that I had the endurance to hold pace beyond 20 miles, but even on my best marathons, I always dropped a few seconds the last few miles.

I concur with Dave on all counts. You are a strong runner and we're wishing you the best, but when I was doing similar runs (sub-3 minute 800's (with active recovery) sub 6:40 pace for half marathon), I was nowhere near sub-3 for the marathon - I'd go so far as to say your 3:12s are remarkably good given your training. Dropping 12 minutes is massive - that's beyond "good progress". If your long runs were 5 miles longer or at sub 8, or finished with 10K at 6:40 pace, or your 10 miler was at something like 6:25 pace, that would be more in the ballpark. Your last actual long run was your February marathon - the aerobic 18-19 milers are great, but not really going to get you there - another factor given the calendar is you must have been doing some of that before you were anywhere near fully recovered from February...that won't necessarily build fitness, could break you down.

If you want that 3:08, don't go out in 1:29.

Agree. Hope I'm wrong too.

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Badig| Strava

Take a shot. You have nothing to lose other than feeling miserable for the last 6-10 miles.

Target just under 1:30 for 13.1 and try to hang on. You will know at 20 whether you will make it or not. You already went 3:12 (a GREAT time!), does going 3:08 really do anything for you? Shoot for sub 3 and give your chance to be a hero.

Disclaimer - My bro and I both ran a ~1:25 1/2 (with less consistent training mileage) and decided to give it a shot. He went 2:57 and I blew up and went 3:20 in the most painful way possible. But I don't regret it. If I ran "smart" and went 3:10 or 3:15, that wouldn't have done anything for me. Glad I shot for 3 and missed, rather than being conservative and wondering if I could have pulled it off.

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/kj

http://kjmcawesome.tumblr.com/

Yeah i agree, it is more fun to give it your all and see what happens. Before I got into true sub-3 shape, I tried numerous times and bonked hard numerous times. It can REALLY hurt, I am talking epic bonks jogging it in with 10 or 11 minute miles for the last few.

However, I would advocate going out around 1:32 or so for the first half. At the half, if you still feel great, speed up to 6:45/mile. Then if you get to mile 20 and still feel like you can do it, speed up a little bit more and give it your all the last few miles. This is at least a bit more conservative so that it still gives you a chance to squeak under 3 without suffering bonk devastation.

Based on going 3:12 a few months ago, and some more volume, I think you're capable. How far out is the race? Go out at 3:00 pace for the first 13.1 and evaluate how you feel.begin to pick it up a few miles beyond that.

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USAT Level II- Ironman U Certified Coach

I'm not certain, given your volume, that accelerating the last couple of miles will be in the cards.

I would like to see a sub 1:25 HM with good endurance, or sub 1:22 with fewer miles (less than 60mpw)

Yasso 800s are pretty useless, but definitely seem to over-estimate how fast you can run a marathon. If you did them at 2:58, I would guess you will run a 3:05 in good conditions.

Why only 3 long runs and why no quality in your long runs?

Good luck, it's certainly not impossible for you.

Nice milage! I'm with the people who say go for it. Before you decide to listen to this advice I should note I have only run to open marys myself. First 13.1 was sub 1:35 both times, and I am yet to finish sub 3:20 :)

Also - I am in the same position as you - I have an open mary coming up in 8 eays from now. I have upped milage substantially the last 6-7 months. Last years marathon was 3:21 on about 20 k / week in the last 30 weeks before the race. This year I've ran 54k/week in the last 30 weeks (iow abit more than 150% Increase!) - I have been injury free, and gotten my 10k - time down from about 40:30 to 38:00.

My main objective is going sub 3:10 - hope I can do that but i know my long runs have been to few (like most say apply to you as well). I've had pretty frequent runs of 20 - 23-24k, but nothing longer. I had my last run yesterday - 23k comfortably at 5min/k pace. Last week I did 23k with the last 5k quite comfortably in 4:20/k pace. Thinking I'll set out to run the first 13.1 in 1:32/33 something, and try to hang on for there.

I don't intead to hijack the thread - but since we're on the same topic - does my plan seem reasonable/optimistic/pesimistic?

I'm 43 and I just did a 2:59:49 on roughly the same mileage as you. You can do it. Disclaimer: the finale mile was the most painful mile I have ever run. And the most satisfying.

If you have a really good day, I think it's possible. But the second half is almost always going to be slower, even if you run a "perfect" race. So I'd try to split more like 1:29/1:31.

I hear ya re: Yasso 800's. But, they are a tool - one that I wouldn't exclusively rely upon. For me when I went sub 3 (before the "modern stone age"!) I needed all my ducks in a row. High mileage (75mpw), sub 35 10k speed, plenty of long runs (>30k). And a day where things "clicked" I remember feeling like I was accelerating at mile 20. I wasn't, I was simply feeling decent enough to hold pace; seemed like everybody else was dropping like flies and dying.

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I saw this on a white board in a window box at my daughters middle school...
List of what life owes you:
1. __________
2. __________
3. __________

I think with that little mileage and absence of long runs you stand no chance. That mileage is not enough to run a solid half marathon let alone marathon. You will discover this in last third of that race. Good luck.
50mi/week is 80km/week that OP has done for the last 15 weeks, no you are not in the same boat.

Challenge accepted!:)

I know - we are definitely not in the same boat - but I would like to add there is quite a difference between a sub 3 and sub 3:10.

I am rooting for the OP hitting his sub 3 goal (and it may well be that he has a better chance of that than me hitting 3:10!) Anyhow - I know my milage is low for a marathon, and that k´s 30 and out will be a pain - but we´ll se how it goes :)

I agree with a lot of what has been posted here, especially the witty and talented Mr. Roche. As a current 3:12 marathoner, you just haven't put in the right amount of work for a 12 minute improvement.

Running three 18 milers at 8:30/mi pace are an absolute waste of time for a guy planning to run 6:50 miles in a marathon. Your time would have been better spent running 15 milers at 6:50/mi every other Sunday.

That being said, I still say go for it. "Run hard, take chances".

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What I do: http://app.strava.com/athletes/345699

Screw the nah sayers......Hydrate, make sure your nutrition is spot on, find the 3 hour pace group and hang on for the ride of your life.

The last 4 miles will suck the life out of you but you can fight through anything for ~28 minutes.

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"Good genes are not a requirement, just the obsession to beat ones brains out daily"...the Griz

I am going to say a MAYBE but unlikley.

My stats last year were really similar to you. Averaged 37 miles for the year and 46 for the build. My last tempo run was 9 miles at 6:49 with a 9 mile warm up (so an 18 mile run).
The weather was perfect for the race and I ran 19 miles in 2:09:48 (6:49 pace) and the last 7.28 in 59:07 (8:05 pace) for a total time of 3:08:55. I was 39 and my back up goal goal was a safe BQ (I figured 3:07:59). I didn't even end up with that because my BQ was 3:10 (I miss the age up by 2 weeks, but whatever, I wouldn't have run it this year anyhow).

It was terrible. Mile 20 was an 8:01 so I knew the 3:00 was gone. I adjusted goal and told myself, if you run 7:12s you will avg under 7:00. Next mile was a 7:26 and i said okay run 7:40's and you will go under 3:05. But that quickly went out the window. At mile 24 I said just run 8 flat and you will be under 3:08 Nope, was 8:30ish....

If you dont care about Boston than I say go for it. I didn't execute as well as I could have and if I were to be in the same situation I would go for it again. You are in that situation. So there it is. If you are looking for a back up goal, I went 3:07:50 this year. Bragging rights if you beat it!

I think it's a long shot. Unless your in at least sub 1:25 half marathon shape, it's very hard to do. Most people breaking 3 hours run 1:23 or faster in the half marathon.

How did you do? Hit your goal?

I coincidentally had my marathon today as well - very happy with my 3:07:30! Did 1:33 + 1:34 splits. Hope you come close to 3!

Congrats! Glad I was wrong.

My race is tomorrow. Congrats on your 3:07 - a great result for sure!

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Next races on the schedule: none at the moment

Mine did not go as well as I hoped. I went out aiming for a 3:04-3:05 time. The 1st half was 1:32, and then the wheels came off 2 miles later after climbing a short but steep highway overpass. Had to let the foot off the gas and cruised down to a 3:11 finish, walking a few waterstations. Had I run smarter I think that I would have hit a 3:09 but I gave it a go, cos why not?

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Next races on the schedule: none at the moment