No sorry- I doubt it.

I think you can hold those Yassos + 5 minutes.
My guess is you can go 3:03.

Also - I would take that tempo run and double the distance. That implies that you can run 20 miles at 6:53 pace. 20 miles is not 26.

If you go through 13.1 in 1:29 (good pace for 2:59:30) - you will probably blow up an run 3:06.

I would go through 13.1 in 1:30:30.
If you feel good you might be able to push the pace from 18-22 and get back to 3:00 pace.
More likely you will come through in 3:03- still a massive PR.

I am really really REALLY rooting for you, but...I don't think sub-3 is in the cards, and that you should run more conservatively for a fun race experience.

Your mileage is solid enough, and you are clearly talented. However, your long runs are not fast enough and your workouts don't indicate that your speed will make up for it.

The biggest obstacle for you will likely by musculo-skeletal breakdown later in the race if you try to sustain faster paces. Your body is not equipped to handle 6:5x paces for more than 18ish miles I would guess (due to less fast long runs). It could be an unpleasant experience after that point.

For future training cycles, remember that the long run is the key of all marathon training. It is more important that they are quality than they are long (though both are helpful). Yours aren't all that long, and they aren't all that quality. I think you could do it with just a bit more training though.

Crush it!!! I hope I'm wrong!

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David Roche
Some Work, All Play podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/...ll-play/id1521532868
Coaching: https://swaprunning.com/

I think you are just shy of the sub 3 right now. Mileage just a little low and not enough and not long enough to get you through the last 10k.

I had a 3:12 PR when I was 40 and went for my first sub 3 when I was 41. I was on target for 2:58 through mile 19, but faded and finished in 3:01. I had been doing similar weekly mileage as you. I then bumped up the mileage and did long runs up to 23 miles. I also did my long runs about 45 seconds slower than my goal pace so more like 7:35's. 6 months later after that 3:01 I got my first sub 3 with a 2:59.

I do think you should just go for it and see how it goes. You might just have a great day. Personally I think you should go 1:29 the first half. Negative splits are very difficult in the marathon and your weekly mileage isn't quite up there to be able to push harder the 2nd half. It wasn't till I started doing 70 mpw that I had the endurance to hold pace beyond 20 miles, but even on my best marathons, I always dropped a few seconds the last few miles.

I concur with Dave on all counts. You are a strong runner and we're wishing you the best, but when I was doing similar runs (sub-3 minute 800's (with active recovery) sub 6:40 pace for half marathon), I was nowhere near sub-3 for the marathon - I'd go so far as to say your 3:12s are remarkably good given your training. Dropping 12 minutes is massive - that's beyond "good progress". If your long runs were 5 miles longer or at sub 8, or finished with 10K at 6:40 pace, or your 10 miler was at something like 6:25 pace, that would be more in the ballpark. Your last actual long run was your February marathon - the aerobic 18-19 milers are great, but not really going to get you there - another factor given the calendar is you must have been doing some of that before you were anywhere near fully recovered from February...that won't necessarily build fitness, could break you down.

If you want that 3:08, don't go out in 1:29.

Agree. Hope I'm wrong too.

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Badig| Strava

Take a shot. You have nothing to lose other than feeling miserable for the last 6-10 miles.

Target just under 1:30 for 13.1 and try to hang on. You will know at 20 whether you will make it or not. You already went 3:12 (a GREAT time!), does going 3:08 really do anything for you? Shoot for sub 3 and give your chance to be a hero.

Disclaimer - My bro and I both ran a ~1:25 1/2 (with less consistent training mileage) and decided to give it a shot. He went 2:57 and I blew up and went 3:20 in the most painful way possible. But I don't regret it. If I ran "smart" and went 3:10 or 3:15, that wouldn't have done anything for me. Glad I shot for 3 and missed, rather than being conservative and wondering if I could have pulled it off.

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/kj

http://kjmcawesome.tumblr.com/

Yeah i agree, it is more fun to give it your all and see what happens. Before I got into true sub-3 shape, I tried numerous times and bonked hard numerous times. It can REALLY hurt, I am talking epic bonks jogging it in with 10 or 11 minute miles for the last few.

However, I would advocate going out around 1:32 or so for the first half. At the half, if you still feel great, speed up to 6:45/mile. Then if you get to mile 20 and still feel like you can do it, speed up a little bit more and give it your all the last few miles. This is at least a bit more conservative so that it still gives you a chance to squeak under 3 without suffering bonk devastation.

Based on going 3:12 a few months ago, and some more volume, I think you're capable. How far out is the race? Go out at 3:00 pace for the first 13.1 and evaluate how you feel.begin to pick it up a few miles beyond that.

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USAT Level II- Ironman U Certified Coach

I'm not certain, given your volume, that accelerating the last couple of miles will be in the cards.

I would like to see a sub 1:25 HM with good endurance, or sub 1:22 with fewer miles (less than 60mpw)

Yasso 800s are pretty useless, but definitely seem to over-estimate how fast you can run a marathon. If you did them at 2:58, I would guess you will run a 3:05 in good conditions.

Why only 3 long runs and why no quality in your long runs?

Good luck, it's certainly not impossible for you.

Nice milage! I'm with the people who say go for it. Before you decide to listen to this advice I should note I have only run to open marys myself. First 13.1 was sub 1:35 both times, and I am yet to finish sub 3:20 :)

Also - I am in the same position as you - I have an open mary coming up in 8 eays from now. I have upped milage substantially the last 6-7 months. Last years marathon was 3:21 on about 20 k / week in the last 30 weeks before the race. This year I've ran 54k/week in the last 30 weeks (iow abit more than 150% Increase!) - I have been injury free, and gotten my 10k - time down from about 40:30 to 38:00.

My main objective is going sub 3:10 - hope I can do that but i know my long runs have been to few (like most say apply to you as well). I've had pretty frequent runs of 20 - 23-24k, but nothing longer. I had my last run yesterday - 23k comfortably at 5min/k pace. Last week I did 23k with the last 5k quite comfortably in 4:20/k pace. Thinking I'll set out to run the first 13.1 in 1:32/33 something, and try to hang on for there.

I don't intead to hijack the thread - but since we're on the same topic - does my plan seem reasonable/optimistic/pesimistic?

I'm 43 and I just did a 2:59:49 on roughly the same mileage as you. You can do it. Disclaimer: the finale mile was the most painful mile I have ever run. And the most satisfying.

If you have a really good day, I think it's possible. But the second half is almost always going to be slower, even if you run a "perfect" race. So I'd try to split more like 1:29/1:31.

I hear ya re: Yasso 800's. But, they are a tool - one that I wouldn't exclusively rely upon. For me when I went sub 3 (before the "modern stone age"!) I needed all my ducks in a row. High mileage (75mpw), sub 35 10k speed, plenty of long runs (>30k). And a day where things "clicked" I remember feeling like I was accelerating at mile 20. I wasn't, I was simply feeling decent enough to hold pace; seemed like everybody else was dropping like flies and dying.

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I saw this on a white board in a window box at my daughters middle school...
List of what life owes you:
1. __________
2. __________
3. __________

I think with that little mileage and absence of long runs you stand no chance. That mileage is not enough to run a solid half marathon let alone marathon. You will discover this in last third of that race. Good luck.
50mi/week is 80km/week that OP has done for the last 15 weeks, no you are not in the same boat.

Challenge accepted!:)

I know - we are definitely not in the same boat - but I would like to add there is quite a difference between a sub 3 and sub 3:10.

I am rooting for the OP hitting his sub 3 goal (and it may well be that he has a better chance of that than me hitting 3:10!) Anyhow - I know my milage is low for a marathon, and that k´s 30 and out will be a pain - but we´ll se how it goes :)

I agree with a lot of what has been posted here, especially the witty and talented Mr. Roche. As a current 3:12 marathoner, you just haven't put in the right amount of work for a 12 minute improvement.

Running three 18 milers at 8:30/mi pace are an absolute waste of time for a guy planning to run 6:50 miles in a marathon. Your time would have been better spent running 15 milers at 6:50/mi every other Sunday.

That being said, I still say go for it. "Run hard, take chances".

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What I do: http://app.strava.com/athletes/345699

Screw the nah sayers......Hydrate, make sure your nutrition is spot on, find the 3 hour pace group and hang on for the ride of your life.

The last 4 miles will suck the life out of you but you can fight through anything for ~28 minutes.

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"Good genes are not a requirement, just the obsession to beat ones brains out daily"...the Griz

I am going to say a MAYBE but unlikley.

My stats last year were really similar to you. Averaged 37 miles for the year and 46 for the build. My last tempo run was 9 miles at 6:49 with a 9 mile warm up (so an 18 mile run).
The weather was perfect for the race and I ran 19 miles in 2:09:48 (6:49 pace) and the last 7.28 in 59:07 (8:05 pace) for a total time of 3:08:55. I was 39 and my back up goal goal was a safe BQ (I figured 3:07:59). I didn't even end up with that because my BQ was 3:10 (I miss the age up by 2 weeks, but whatever, I wouldn't have run it this year anyhow).

It was terrible. Mile 20 was an 8:01 so I knew the 3:00 was gone. I adjusted goal and told myself, if you run 7:12s you will avg under 7:00. Next mile was a 7:26 and i said okay run 7:40's and you will go under 3:05. But that quickly went out the window. At mile 24 I said just run 8 flat and you will be under 3:08 Nope, was 8:30ish....

If you dont care about Boston than I say go for it. I didn't execute as well as I could have and if I were to be in the same situation I would go for it again. You are in that situation. So there it is. If you are looking for a back up goal, I went 3:07:50 this year. Bragging rights if you beat it!

I think it's a long shot. Unless your in at least sub 1:25 half marathon shape, it's very hard to do. Most people breaking 3 hours run 1:23 or faster in the half marathon.

How did you do? Hit your goal?

I coincidentally had my marathon today as well - very happy with my 3:07:30! Did 1:33 + 1:34 splits. Hope you come close to 3!

Congrats! Glad I was wrong.

My race is tomorrow. Congrats on your 3:07 - a great result for sure!

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Next races on the schedule: none at the moment

Mine did not go as well as I hoped. I went out aiming for a 3:04-3:05 time. The 1st half was 1:32, and then the wheels came off 2 miles later after climbing a short but steep highway overpass. Had to let the foot off the gas and cruised down to a 3:11 finish, walking a few waterstations. Had I run smarter I think that I would have hit a 3:09 but I gave it a go, cos why not?

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Next races on the schedule: none at the moment

I think that this was some excellent advice. I had 3 hours and 11 minutes to digest it today.
So... do you recommend doing long runs at the target pace every other week? Do them in addition to the tempo run that same week? I usually keep the tempo runs under 12 miles which includes a couple of miles of w/u and w/d?

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Next races on the schedule: none at the moment

Kudos for going for it! I also think that you're right that DaveRoche's advice above is the best. Need more long runs with some quality for Marathon training.

One thing I should note thought - this being the first time I've actually felt I executed the marathon to the best of my abilities: I've always been afraid of giving up to much in the early stages, and I've probably pushed to hard the first half. This time is the first I've actually managed to REALLY hold back the first 25k. (I had this mental thing saying I was not allowed to "let go" before passing 25-26-27k).

During that first part - I kept thinking if I'd get back the minutes I slowed down. I think in the end, I did. I wasnt able to pick up the pace very substantially, but I did have the fastest portion of my race from 25 - 35k (I ran that 10k-stretch about 1min faster than the previous 10-k stretches). From k 35 - 42 was hard, and probably where I most suffered from lack of quality long runs, but I was still able to keep the wheels on or atleast 3 of 4 wheels). The last kilometres ( save for 1 k where there was a pretty hard climg) were still about as fast as the first 2-3 of my marathon (around 4:30min/k pace), and when I finished i was 100% confident that I would not have been able to squeeze another second due to pacing.

http://tpks.ws/2zPn

Way to run alex_korr and lovegoat and for putting your goals out there.

Nice! Wish I was able to clock a 174bpm avg for a marathon (I'd probably be dead if I tried it). A pretty cool 2 loop course - what's the name of the race? I go to Norway sometimes, never get that not that far north though, but it might be a fun Spring trip! How was the weather that day.

Here's my run. Getting out of bed this morning was not fun :)

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Next races on the schedule: none at the moment

It's the Bergen City Marathon - yearly event since 2012. Pretty cool race, and a really nice venue (should say I'm based - my home town:)) I can really recommmend this if going to Norway for the first time. You run twice around the city centre, some nice cobbled-sections through the old part of town, and parts of the route with a really nice view. Only drawback - if you dont like hiills - is that there is abit of elevation (but not too bad - winner ran 2:26 this year - which is so fast I can't even imagine doing it!)

We had perfect weather this year - light clouds/some sun, around 10 C and no winds.

All things considered you held it together pretty well!

One thing that jumps out from the details - you were headed out seeking 3:04 and as you said hit the half under 1:32, but your first 5 miles were at 6:42 (2:56) pace, with the first mile and a half apparently uphill. The debt incurred by that is very tough (to say the least) to come back from. Easy to say and hard to do, but do you think if you'd let people go, tempered the adrenaline and stuck to 7 min pace right from the start it would have made a difference later on?

Regardless, congrats - rest up and recover well.

You know, that's the weird part. I was following the 3:05 pacer, and frankly was simply running behind him for the first 10 miles or so without paying too much attention to what the watch was showing. Probably stupid of me. I remember the race clock was showing 1:32:07 when we crossed the 13.1 mat, and it was not until I got home when I realized that the guy must have gone out a tad too fast.

Well, it was a learning experience for sure. Yes, I think that had I run it smart, I'd probably would have come in at 3:09 or so. That sub 3 was not in the cards yesterday.

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Next races on the schedule: none at the moment

Well, it was a learning experience for sure. Yes, I think that had I run it smart, I'd probably would have come in at 3:09 or so. That sub 3 was not in the cards yesterday.

Are you going to try and go under 3 hours later? It would be interesting to see what your training looks like as you try to take off 11 minutes.

I think some pace group leaders explicitly try to bank some time, and others try to be precisely on (or say 2 seconds under) the desired average throughout. The latter is better I reckon, unless there is a lot of terrain involved that they don't account for properly. But it requires a pacer who "knows" he himself is not going to slow down no matter what, vs. one who might be tempted to bank just to make sure he crosses the finish line at the appointed time. I only ever ran with a pace group once, long ago, and the guy was very up front about his plan (which was the stick to the desired average approach) and he was vocal about how effectively we were doing that at every mile marker. He nailed it, but I think he also would have immediately informed everyone if he felt he was not going to hold it.

I think that the next step is to get into the 3:05 territory. Probably won't be able to do run focused training until November.

Changes clearly needed to be made:

1. Up the weekly mileage. 50 mpw is not enough, so I'll shoot for perhaps 60 mpw during the next marathon build cycle.
2. Improve the quality of the long runs. They need to be done faster. I'll shoot for something like that this for next build:
week a. Mon - 8 miles easy, Tue - hill repeats/7-8 miles, Wed - off, Thu - 7 miles easy, Fri - 8 miles easy, Saturday - 6 miles easy. Sun - long run at pace (increasing from say 14 to 20 at the end)
week b Mon - 6 miles easy, Tue - hill repeats/7-8 miles, Wed - off, Thu - tempo (increasing from 8 to 12 miles), Fri - 7 miles easy, Saturday - 10 miles easy. Sun - 10 miles easy.

Assuming a 16 week build, this should give me 8 tempo runs, 8 long runs, 8 strength builders. Hopefully that will get me there.

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I'm glad you posted this as I was following the last few days. I just ran my 2nd marathon Sunday and was similar to you in your training. I'm only 33 years old, never ran track or anything but I've been in the tri biz for the last 10yrs. I ran my first marathon 2 yrs ago and went 2:59:4x. My fastest half before that was like a 1:27 I think. My goal for my first full was to BQ, run a 3:05 and be really happy. I went sub 3 and was obviously stoked.

This year I started training hard in January and was into the mid 40's for my weekly mileage by March but probably averaged around 35mpw on 4 runs/week. I ran my mid week runs at very focused intervals and kept them hard and fast, then my long runs on the weekend. I wanted to go sub 2:59 but I was thinking it was somewhat fluky since I wasn't putting in a ton of mileage like so many say you should. I was hoping to go 6:45/mi and hang on. And even in horrible conditions (rain and wind) I did! I went 2:57:17 officially, but the course was 26.4 (no idea why) My Garmin had me at 2:55:50. I went out nailing solid 6:39's and 6:40's until that dreaded 20 mile mark when I tried to hold 6:50's for dear life. I felt great up to 18 and honestly wasn't worried I went out too fast because I felt fresh and good.

So the more mileage thing may work for many people. I know it's not for me. I don't run on back to back days except an a.m session on Tues then an afternoon session on Wed. I never felt my body could hold up to more and more miles and I've never been injured so it's working for me. I'm also obviously swimming, biking and lifting so with the time I have, 4 days/week and around 10 miles average per run worked for me. My long slow runs on the weekends were easy for me at a 7:45/mi pace and I felt real good afterwards. Now, I can barely move haha. It's gonna be a few days before anything real happens haha.

Alex,

I read on ST a long time ago that your true marathon pace is a reflection on your training 1 year to 18 months beforehand. Now that you've got a couple marathons under your belt, it's time to take advantage of your base. Don't lose too much of your weekly run volume this summer. Use the BarryP ABC/123 basics until your next marathon build.

Follow something like this:

M: Rest
T: 6 miles easy
W: 9 mile workout (3 x 2 mile tempo, working towards 2 x 3 mile tempo runs)
T: 6 miles easy
F: 9 mile run w/ some MP miles or do a progression run
S: 6 miles easy
S: 12 - 15 mile long run (run about :45 slower than MP one week and fast finish the other week)

If you are biking and swimming this summer, do your biking on easy run days and your swimming on Mondays and your 9 mile run days.

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What I do: http://app.strava.com/athletes/345699

Be careful, I think 60mpw is about the point where you have to start doubling up on runs. With singles at that mileage I think the runs just beat you down too much to ever really recover. I have run up to 80mpw on singles and it was counter-productive compared to running 60mpw on singles or 80mpw on doubles.

I am not huge on the "strength builders". The key workouts for marathon training IMO are the long run, the tempo run, and the midweek long run. I prefer doing a long run every weekend, year-round. Just crank out 16 miles every weekend, then in the 8 weeks before the race, do 3-4 20 milers. In your final marathon build, I like the McMillan approach of slowly increasing a midweek long run up to about 15 miles. I am not sure what you mean by an 8 to 12 mile tempo...runners do not use the word tempo to describe a pace you could hold for 12 miles (unless you are Olympic Trials caliber). A tempo run should be run at a pace you can sustain for around 1 hour, but you only run at that pace for 20 to max 40 minutes. An 8 to 12 mile run with speedwork would be more of a marathon pace workout.

Here is my 2 cents:
M: rest
Tu: 8 miles with 20 to 40 minutes tempo. If you are feeling especially peppy, do a track workout instead (800 or mile repeats)
W: 6 miles easy
Th: mid-week long run, starting at 8 and slowly increasing to 15 in your peak week. Start easy and accelerate to marathon pace if peppy
F: 6 miles easy
Sa: 8 miles easy
Su: 16 miles. In last 8 weeks, alternate 16 one week, 20 the next. Make sure to run these easy enough that you are fresh by Tuesday. I personally do NOT recommend marathon pace in the long run, though others disagree. I usually run 1 to 2 minutes slower than marathon pace, basically just a nice cruise.

Run this program for months on end and you will break 3 hrs before you know it.

FWIW, I ran my last sub 3 at age 47, 8 weeks after an IM. I come from a running background but never ran high mileage (most marathons off of 40 mpw or less, a bunch of sub 3s and most other marathons under 3:10, some on as little as 11 mpw average - ok, injured, but did aerobic volume swimming and biking). There are all sorts of programs out there; you just have to figure out what works for you. For us low-mileage types, the Printer guy had it right - you have to do long runs at goal marathon pace or slightly faster and be able to nail them. Yasso 800s and sub 1:25 half marathons are indicators but not guarantees that you can do it (they are more of a litmus test - if you can't do those, you probably don't have the speed endurance to run sub 3).

I typically liked to have 3-5 20 milers in my leadup to the marathon, mostly 3 rather than 5. I had several variations: the build (first 5M at 7:30, next 5M at 7:15, next at 7:00, last at 6:45 or faster), the steady (2M w/u, 16M at 6:45ish, 2M c/d), or "the test" (2M w/u, 16M at 6:30 or faster, 2M c/d). This last one, though, was fairly taxing, and I should also say I was aiming for sub 2:50.

As for pacers, I joined the sub 3 group in my last sub-3 marathon (the 2009 CIM), and the pacer was a well-known ultra guy, Kevin Sawchuk. He did a great job pacing the group of roughly 50, hitting 1:29:30 for the first half. At around mile 18, though, he told the people remaining that he had had the flu and wasn't feeling it, but we had 25 seconds in the bank, so if you had anything left go for it. A couple of other guys and I took off, but we were likely the only ones from the group who got the sub 3, as I went 2:59:54. That was a nail biter; mile 25 was a 7:05, and I had to push for all I was worth in the last 1.2 to hit the goal.

Not to debate high mileage vs low mileage, but one consideration is longevity in the sport. I never ran high milesage, so probably never achieved my genetic potential, but I'm still relatively speedy at 53 (not to mention CAN still run AT ALL), so there's that. I don't know many high-mileage guys from back in the day who can still run (and/or WANT to run). There are a few outliers, but very few.

BTW, I was never really fast (never broke 35 for 10K) but seemed to have decent lactate threshold (PRs 57:32 for 10 miles, 1:17:51 for 13.1), so running 6:45-6:50 pace was not difficult. That's really the key, especially if you're a low-mileage runner - if you can hold low 6:00 pace for over an hour, you don't need a ton of mileage to go sub 3.

Once I get over this IM obsession, I'll go back to open marathons. A good friend is trying to talk me into doing Big Sur next year, a race I've run 9 times but last in 2011. I think it's time to go back.

Ian