I'm kinda thinking the ribs on the Boyd rim are a waste of weight. They are running the opposite direction they'd need to to do any good.
XR31
and some others:
XR31
and some others:
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Re: FLO Sells Out Again [asad137]
[ In reply to ]
Re: FLO Sells Out Again [rruff]
[ In reply to ]
rruff wrote:
I'm kinda thinking the ribs on the Boyd rim are a waste of weight.I had the same thought. Of course, it's hard to make an extrusion with ribs running the other way! I guess it's not a waste of weight if you can get some bogus marketing out of it...
Re: FLO Sells Out Again [Canadian]
[ In reply to ]
Canadian wrote:
Andrewmc wrote:
Firstly thanks for the reply, I do appreciate it and I should say i have no skin in the game as I'm not willing to take a punt on waiting month to month to see if I'll win the lottery, so I went with an alternative option. Like I said, I support that decision.
I suspect, though have no way of knowing, that you hear from the people that its working for, you're not hearing from those that are unsuccessful to the same extent - it would be interesting to know how many people wanted to buy but couldn't.
My experience tells me that people are much more likely to say something when they have something to complain about, not when they are happy.
I think the refund argument is a straw man - I'm waiting 12 months for a bike, the wait for a Sachs or Vanilla is so long that the books were closed on them - the deposits gone, sure people can piss and moan if they change their mind or don't want to wait, but your customer service does not extend - if you don't want it to - to offering refunds if its clearly set out at the start that once you're in you're in.
A straw? It's not even close to a straw. It's really quite black and white. Let me give you a few things to consider.
1. Credit card processing companies always favor the buyer in any transactional dispute. Most good credit card processing companies require you to have a reasonable sales and refund policy. Saying you simply won't give someones money back because you said so, doesn't fly. Upset your credit card processor too many times and you have no way to accept payments.
2. Good luck with keeping a good rating at the better business bureau. A few "these guys ripped me off complaints" later and your company really gets a black eye.
3. What happens when the customer who paid in full calls you and says my child was diagnosed with "x" and I really need the money I put down on my wheels help cover the medical expenses? Or, I just lost my job and I'm really in a hard place? Are we going to tell that guy to go jump in the lake? I guess you could if you wanted but remember points 1 and 2. In the long run you're not going to win. Plus, I don't want to be the guy doing that. The stories above are true and we realize that sometimes life throws you curveballs. We believe that helping our customers out when they are in need will only bring more business our way in the future.
4. Finally, how do you think your public image on forums and social media would look if there were multiple threads and comments stating that they took my money and won't give it back. Especially when that guy says he has a kid who was just diagnosed with cancer?
If you would like to run a business with a no refund policy I wish you luck. It's simply something we are not going to do
The issue you would have is a lack of transparency about when the order arrives - you tell them its 8 months and its 8 months, then they know what they're getting in to.
You're assuming that I can accurately project production times 8 months or more in advance. What happens when a typhoon hits our factory, a container ship crashes, or a production run goes bad? All of which have happened to us. Even if I add time to my estimate, 8 months can easily become 8.5 or 9 months and people get upset. We've been down that road and don't want to go down it again. We believe in taking peoples money when we have the product in hand. If I was building frames myself, then I have control of everything, so the timeline model might make sense. When you produce wheels at 5 different factories you lose enough control to make projecting accurate dates difficult.
I'm not asking you to change your model - we're simply engaged in a discussion about lost sales, it seems to me that when you have a list, you're names on it, it gets to your turn in a given period of time, and there's a drop dead date after which you can't back out and you forfeit your deposit.
The only difference in the way its currently set up is you please some of the people (what percentage I don't know) some of the time, you can't please all of the people all of the time, but it would seem to me that there's an opportunity for orders to be split between people willing to put their money where there mouth is and wait, and those that want to take a punt on the lottery. If you tell me orders are 50/50 lottery and pre-ordered and that the current wait is 8 months, I'd put my order in, pay my cash and if I wanted to enter the lottery I could do that as well and you simply take the next person in line as a guaranteed order - either way no loss for you and I know exactly how I can plan my purchase and whether it works for me or not.
Here's the thing. Let's say we offer a pre-order option. Let's assume using 50% of my inventory I'm now at a 16 month wait time. How exactly do we take pre-orders? Naturally, everyone wants to be the first to get their order in, but that's not possible. So we set up the "FLO" pre-order event on a first come first serve basis. Everyone rushes to get their pre-order in. Then they get an email saying congrats, you made the last group. We'll be able to get you your wheels in 16 months. Do you know what that guys does? He complains. He's upset because he expected to be in the first group OR he expected to wait a maximum of 3 months, but now he has to wait 16 months. So he comes on Slowtwitch and complains that he is in the 16 month group and cancels his order.
What I've learned is that people are mostly upset because they didn't get exactly what they wanted, when they wanted it. We live in an instant gratification society. I wanted to buy something today, I set myself up to expect it, and then when I don't get that, I'm furious and tell the world how much the guys at FLO suck.
No matter what type of sales structure we offer, somebody somewhere isn't getting what they "expected" to get, and they tell the world how terrible we are.
I've no doubt the product is excellent and great value for money, I'd liked to have ordered but can't be doing with it waiting month to month and taking a punt and the money saved for me is neither here nor there so I exercised another option I just think its a bit of a missed opportunity for you - though i accept I don't know how you solve it - though I ran a manufacturing business and didn't go bankrupt so I understand some of the issues.
I don't understand why you are mentioning the 16 month lag time for orders? The wheels you have coming in are not spoken for yet as you don't do true "pre-orders" correct? I don't see why you don't say on Day X we are creating a priority list where you sign in and tell you what they want. Then you take your 50% of inventory you mentioned and use it to match your waiting list. The other 50% is business as usual.
You also get real market data. Mailing lists. All good stuff. Maybe it's more work for you? Maybe you like the buzz of the sales and threads like this?
Re: FLO Sells Out Again [Canadian]
[ In reply to ]
I appreciate you taking the time to respond. As you pointed out earlier, there are many ways you could have, or could choose to run your business, its not a one size fits all approach as your example of Roka shows.
Re: FLO Sells Out Again [Andrewmc]
[ In reply to ]
Andrewmc wrote:
I appreciate you taking the time to respond. As you pointed out earlier, there are many ways you could have, or could choose to run your business, its not a one size fits all approach as your example of Roka shows.It will be interesting to watch both companies over the next 5-8 years.
"Good genes are not a requirement, just the obsession to beat ones brains out daily"...the Griz
Re: FLO Sells Out Again [badgertri]
[ In reply to ]
badgertri wrote:
Economist wrote:
I haven't made any real comments on FLO's business model since I don't know all the details. I can see why the average consumer is confused. We are use to being able to purchase what we want when we want it. <--Whole bunch of w's in that sentence.
This is exactly my point...since people don't know all the details their experience and degrees mean very little. The most annoying post that always pops up is the supply and demand assertion. People try to make it far more simple than it really is. Anybody can take an economics class and say, "Oh, yeah, that makes sense you raise price until demand levels out and then just hold it there." But in practice that is not the way it works...wayyyy too many other factors. There is a reason why running businesses, cities, states, countries etc. is very difficult...
FLO wants to be around forever...long-term planning is a concept many American's seem to struggle with. But in this case it is mainly because American's are entitled jerks and will never support a situation where they don't get instant gratification.
I would disagree that their experience or degree's mean nothing. Quick side note: A degree only means something the first year after receiving it. After that it's experience. Exception would be academia where the degree + research and consulting carry a tremendous amount of weight. When I joined academia I was SHOCKED at how much outside work they do. I knew there was always some consulting, but I didn't know it was the majority of what they do. I now understand why so many of my past professors seemed so distant while giving a lecture. Teaching was less than 20% of th he workload. The class at MIT had a professor on day one. After that it was TA's. This was even at the Ph.d level.
Thus let's focus on experience. There are countless times I'd meet a client for lunch, a client I just met. I'd get a macro idea of how they conduct business and we'd discuss the challenges. With very little data, I'd lay out a plan of attack. I'd make it clear that I'm making some underlying assumptions, but experience has taught me that I'll be very close to bulls eyes.
This is a forum so I like reading peoples ideas. Some ideas are rather naive (supply and demand) but I understand why they are naive. Business practices, on the surface, seem so simple. Thus everybody seems to have an opinion. Here's a quote from Rothbard that I love:
“It is no crime to be ignorant of economics, which is, after all, a specialized discipline and one that most people consider to be a ‘dismal science.’ But it is totally irresponsible to have a loud and vociferous opinion on economic subjects while remaining in this state of ignorance.”
This quote is aggressive, so I'd replace ignorant with naive. The point being that people need to understand their weakness and express opinions according. Example:
"coming from the viewpoint of the consumer, I feel they should do x, y and z"
"on the surface, the solution of x,y,z seems so obvious..."
After those statements are made, that person must be very very open to constructive criticism and that criticism should be delivered in a mature manner. Example:
"I understand your view point, but here's why x, y and z may not work"
"I understand why it seems obvious, but here are the challenge to x,y,z"
However, ST is filled with type-a personalities, so things usually follow the same pattern as Let's Run forum.
tl:dr - Never dismiss experience. Choose your wording carefully when express an opinion on something you are not sure about. Those responding, choose your wording carefully to promote healthy conversation.
_________________________________
The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.
Re: FLO Sells Out Again [arby]
[ In reply to ]
Last edited by:
romulusmagnus: Nov 16, 15 8:14
Re: FLO Sells Out Again [romulusmagnus]
[ In reply to ]
Regarding jackmott's services as a Flo consultant, not on my watch. I'm retaining him for NewCo immediately as a startup consultant. He'll be signing a 60-month non compete if he agrees to the terms, which is a pretty good lump sum that will buy a lot of aero stuff like integrated front end equipment, or one hideously unaerodynamic but at least brand-pretention IA gen 1, back before the Harvard kid in Felt's marketing department told everyone that Novatec was a financial winner, and weren't going to deal with Reynold's outrageous wholesaling terms and comingingly with Diamondback. Seriosly.).
Re: FLO Sells Out Again [romulusmagnus]
[ In reply to ]
it's hard for me to tell what you are trying to say given the style of your post, but I think I get the gist. If you think you can do it better than Flo can, just offer to buy them, then extract all the extra value out of the market. Since by your reckoning they are leaving oodles of profit on the table, you should be able to perform this transaction in a highly leveraged way with no problems repaying your creditors.
Re: FLO Sells Out Again [tucktri]
[ In reply to ]
tucktri wrote:
Canadian wrote:
Andrewmc wrote:
Firstly thanks for the reply, I do appreciate it and I should say i have no skin in the game as I'm not willing to take a punt on waiting month to month to see if I'll win the lottery, so I went with an alternative option. Like I said, I support that decision.
I suspect, though have no way of knowing, that you hear from the people that its working for, you're not hearing from those that are unsuccessful to the same extent - it would be interesting to know how many people wanted to buy but couldn't.
My experience tells me that people are much more likely to say something when they have something to complain about, not when they are happy.
I think the refund argument is a straw man - I'm waiting 12 months for a bike, the wait for a Sachs or Vanilla is so long that the books were closed on them - the deposits gone, sure people can piss and moan if they change their mind or don't want to wait, but your customer service does not extend - if you don't want it to - to offering refunds if its clearly set out at the start that once you're in you're in.
A straw? It's not even close to a straw. It's really quite black and white. Let me give you a few things to consider.
1. Credit card processing companies always favor the buyer in any transactional dispute. Most good credit card processing companies require you to have a reasonable sales and refund policy. Saying you simply won't give someones money back because you said so, doesn't fly. Upset your credit card processor too many times and you have no way to accept payments.
2. Good luck with keeping a good rating at the better business bureau. A few "these guys ripped me off complaints" later and your company really gets a black eye.
3. What happens when the customer who paid in full calls you and says my child was diagnosed with "x" and I really need the money I put down on my wheels help cover the medical expenses? Or, I just lost my job and I'm really in a hard place? Are we going to tell that guy to go jump in the lake? I guess you could if you wanted but remember points 1 and 2. In the long run you're not going to win. Plus, I don't want to be the guy doing that. The stories above are true and we realize that sometimes life throws you curveballs. We believe that helping our customers out when they are in need will only bring more business our way in the future.
4. Finally, how do you think your public image on forums and social media would look if there were multiple threads and comments stating that they took my money and won't give it back. Especially when that guy says he has a kid who was just diagnosed with cancer?
If you would like to run a business with a no refund policy I wish you luck. It's simply something we are not going to do
The issue you would have is a lack of transparency about when the order arrives - you tell them its 8 months and its 8 months, then they know what they're getting in to.
You're assuming that I can accurately project production times 8 months or more in advance. What happens when a typhoon hits our factory, a container ship crashes, or a production run goes bad? All of which have happened to us. Even if I add time to my estimate, 8 months can easily become 8.5 or 9 months and people get upset. We've been down that road and don't want to go down it again. We believe in taking peoples money when we have the product in hand. If I was building frames myself, then I have control of everything, so the timeline model might make sense. When you produce wheels at 5 different factories you lose enough control to make projecting accurate dates difficult.
I'm not asking you to change your model - we're simply engaged in a discussion about lost sales, it seems to me that when you have a list, you're names on it, it gets to your turn in a given period of time, and there's a drop dead date after which you can't back out and you forfeit your deposit.
The only difference in the way its currently set up is you please some of the people (what percentage I don't know) some of the time, you can't please all of the people all of the time, but it would seem to me that there's an opportunity for orders to be split between people willing to put their money where there mouth is and wait, and those that want to take a punt on the lottery. If you tell me orders are 50/50 lottery and pre-ordered and that the current wait is 8 months, I'd put my order in, pay my cash and if I wanted to enter the lottery I could do that as well and you simply take the next person in line as a guaranteed order - either way no loss for you and I know exactly how I can plan my purchase and whether it works for me or not.
Here's the thing. Let's say we offer a pre-order option. Let's assume using 50% of my inventory I'm now at a 16 month wait time. How exactly do we take pre-orders? Naturally, everyone wants to be the first to get their order in, but that's not possible. So we set up the "FLO" pre-order event on a first come first serve basis. Everyone rushes to get their pre-order in. Then they get an email saying congrats, you made the last group. We'll be able to get you your wheels in 16 months. Do you know what that guys does? He complains. He's upset because he expected to be in the first group OR he expected to wait a maximum of 3 months, but now he has to wait 16 months. So he comes on Slowtwitch and complains that he is in the 16 month group and cancels his order.
What I've learned is that people are mostly upset because they didn't get exactly what they wanted, when they wanted it. We live in an instant gratification society. I wanted to buy something today, I set myself up to expect it, and then when I don't get that, I'm furious and tell the world how much the guys at FLO suck.
No matter what type of sales structure we offer, somebody somewhere isn't getting what they "expected" to get, and they tell the world how terrible we are.
I've no doubt the product is excellent and great value for money, I'd liked to have ordered but can't be doing with it waiting month to month and taking a punt and the money saved for me is neither here nor there so I exercised another option I just think its a bit of a missed opportunity for you - though i accept I don't know how you solve it - though I ran a manufacturing business and didn't go bankrupt so I understand some of the issues.
I don't understand why you are mentioning the 16 month lag time for orders? The wheels you have coming in are not spoken for yet as you don't do true "pre-orders" correct? I don't see why you don't say on Day X we are creating a priority list where you sign in and tell you what they want. Then you take your 50% of inventory you mentioned and use it to match your waiting list. The other 50% is business as usual.
You also get real market data. Mailing lists. All good stuff. Maybe it's more work for you? Maybe you like the buzz of the sales and threads like this?
The 16 month lag time comes from the sheer number of people who would sign up. We couldn't fulfill all of the orders with 50% of one container, so wait times would continually increase as wheels were spoken for.
Chris Thornham
Co-Founder And Previous Owner Of FLO Cycling
Re: FLO Sells Out Again [Canadian]
[ In reply to ]
Canadian wrote:
solitude wrote:
I agree. Great product, great prices, keep up the good work. A lot of people might help to better understand the situation if they realized that there is a different between PRICE and COST. Flo's prices are low relative to the competition, but given the scarcity and irregular ordering process, the cost to the consumer is considerably higher. The consumer must accept not receiving the product exactly when they want, must accept the uncertainty that they might not get said product, must scour slowtwitch for ordering info, must be at their computer when the time is right, and so on. If your time is valuable, then you might not accept the opportunity cost of being a Flo customer, and instead opt to pay higher prices for greater convenience from Zipp, HED, etc. Conversely, if you value your time less highly, then your opportunity cost is lower, to the effective overall cost of a Flo wheel is lower, so you try to buy Flo.
There are many similar scenarios in other business. For example, recently I wanted to buy a bunch of high-quality ties. Two possible options were to buy a bunch of new ties from known companies that produce quality, durable, attractive ties. Whereas another option was to visit 10 thrift stores in my urban city, hunting out the great finds, accepting that there is uncertainty, that it will take an entire day or more, that the ties may not fit me properly, etc. Option 1 is expensive in price, option 2 is cheap in price, but depending on how you value the opportunity cost of your time, they might be roughly equal. In fact, since I ended up going option 1, assuming I am a rational actor, the sum cost was actually cheaper for option 1.
There is no right of wrong answer for the consumer. If you feel that the cost of Flo is too much for you, pay higher prices for wheels from another company. If it's not, try to buy Flo.
Now what is best for the company is a different matter, and as others have stated that would require way more info, which none of us have.
I really like what you said. The example is great.
Thank you. I am a happy owner of a pair of Flo30s and will be sending more of my scarce money your way soon.
Re: FLO Sells Out Again [solitude]
[ In reply to ]
solitude wrote:
it's hard for me to tell what you are trying to say given the style of your post, but I think I get the gist. If you think you can do it better than Flo can, just offer to buy them, then extract all the extra value out of the market. Since by your reckoning they are leaving oodles of profit on the table, you should be able to perform this transaction in a highly leveraged way with no problems repaying your creditors.What assets would I be buying? Supplier relationships admitted to be tenuous? A bottom barrel brand? Something special or privileged from a product perspective?
How do I value the firm? Sum of discounted future cash flows? Sum of the parts? Maybe, if they are cash flow positive and if the parts sum to anything worth paying for, but I don't see it. Plus, they won't sell, especially for a reasonable rate. They have a pretty bad website and buy flow. Almost everything I see is lackluster, and I'd rather redo and do right, under a better brand title. They won't sell either...why would they? It's all about staying the course.
Here's what I might do. I'll call it the WTC Strategy. I offer to buy them out for three years of projected future Ebitda, assuming they open the books. When they say no, I start a wheel company (a race) in the same market segment (wheels) working with a better brand, a better product, and maybe I'll even get a steal a key partner, like the city of Penticton. Then we can A/B test the Flo model vs. my model, and I get to be right, which correctness I can measure in dollars and cents.
Re: FLO Sells Out Again [stringcheese]
[ In reply to ]
Actually I think it will be interesting to see what happens with both, and if a new entrant to the wheel market arrives. Flo said I think 2000 plus signed up for the list, if they sell out in minutes and unmet demands left on the table it implies there's the potential opportunity for a new entrant. It will interesting to see if someone arrives or looks for funding
Re: FLO Sells Out Again [romulusmagnus]
[ In reply to ]
I bet that felt awesome! But you're the only one in the circle...zip up and eat the cookie.
Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team
Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team
Re: FLO Sells Out Again [romulusmagnus]
[ In reply to ]
romulusmagnus wrote:
As usual there's a lot of nonsense spew from the comically unfiltered gaggle of armchair analystsOh, the irony. Just out of business school?
Re: FLO Sells Out Again [Canadian]
[ In reply to ]
Canadian wrote:
tucktri wrote:
Canadian wrote:
Andrewmc wrote:
Firstly thanks for the reply, I do appreciate it and I should say i have no skin in the game as I'm not willing to take a punt on waiting month to month to see if I'll win the lottery, so I went with an alternative option. Like I said, I support that decision.
I suspect, though have no way of knowing, that you hear from the people that its working for, you're not hearing from those that are unsuccessful to the same extent - it would be interesting to know how many people wanted to buy but couldn't.
My experience tells me that people are much more likely to say something when they have something to complain about, not when they are happy.
I think the refund argument is a straw man - I'm waiting 12 months for a bike, the wait for a Sachs or Vanilla is so long that the books were closed on them - the deposits gone, sure people can piss and moan if they change their mind or don't want to wait, but your customer service does not extend - if you don't want it to - to offering refunds if its clearly set out at the start that once you're in you're in.
A straw? It's not even close to a straw. It's really quite black and white. Let me give you a few things to consider.
1. Credit card processing companies always favor the buyer in any transactional dispute. Most good credit card processing companies require you to have a reasonable sales and refund policy. Saying you simply won't give someones money back because you said so, doesn't fly. Upset your credit card processor too many times and you have no way to accept payments.
2. Good luck with keeping a good rating at the better business bureau. A few "these guys ripped me off complaints" later and your company really gets a black eye.
3. What happens when the customer who paid in full calls you and says my child was diagnosed with "x" and I really need the money I put down on my wheels help cover the medical expenses? Or, I just lost my job and I'm really in a hard place? Are we going to tell that guy to go jump in the lake? I guess you could if you wanted but remember points 1 and 2. In the long run you're not going to win. Plus, I don't want to be the guy doing that. The stories above are true and we realize that sometimes life throws you curveballs. We believe that helping our customers out when they are in need will only bring more business our way in the future.
4. Finally, how do you think your public image on forums and social media would look if there were multiple threads and comments stating that they took my money and won't give it back. Especially when that guy says he has a kid who was just diagnosed with cancer?
If you would like to run a business with a no refund policy I wish you luck. It's simply something we are not going to do
The issue you would have is a lack of transparency about when the order arrives - you tell them its 8 months and its 8 months, then they know what they're getting in to.
You're assuming that I can accurately project production times 8 months or more in advance. What happens when a typhoon hits our factory, a container ship crashes, or a production run goes bad? All of which have happened to us. Even if I add time to my estimate, 8 months can easily become 8.5 or 9 months and people get upset. We've been down that road and don't want to go down it again. We believe in taking peoples money when we have the product in hand. If I was building frames myself, then I have control of everything, so the timeline model might make sense. When you produce wheels at 5 different factories you lose enough control to make projecting accurate dates difficult.
I'm not asking you to change your model - we're simply engaged in a discussion about lost sales, it seems to me that when you have a list, you're names on it, it gets to your turn in a given period of time, and there's a drop dead date after which you can't back out and you forfeit your deposit.
The only difference in the way its currently set up is you please some of the people (what percentage I don't know) some of the time, you can't please all of the people all of the time, but it would seem to me that there's an opportunity for orders to be split between people willing to put their money where there mouth is and wait, and those that want to take a punt on the lottery. If you tell me orders are 50/50 lottery and pre-ordered and that the current wait is 8 months, I'd put my order in, pay my cash and if I wanted to enter the lottery I could do that as well and you simply take the next person in line as a guaranteed order - either way no loss for you and I know exactly how I can plan my purchase and whether it works for me or not.
Here's the thing. Let's say we offer a pre-order option. Let's assume using 50% of my inventory I'm now at a 16 month wait time. How exactly do we take pre-orders? Naturally, everyone wants to be the first to get their order in, but that's not possible. So we set up the "FLO" pre-order event on a first come first serve basis. Everyone rushes to get their pre-order in. Then they get an email saying congrats, you made the last group. We'll be able to get you your wheels in 16 months. Do you know what that guys does? He complains. He's upset because he expected to be in the first group OR he expected to wait a maximum of 3 months, but now he has to wait 16 months. So he comes on Slowtwitch and complains that he is in the 16 month group and cancels his order.
What I've learned is that people are mostly upset because they didn't get exactly what they wanted, when they wanted it. We live in an instant gratification society. I wanted to buy something today, I set myself up to expect it, and then when I don't get that, I'm furious and tell the world how much the guys at FLO suck.
No matter what type of sales structure we offer, somebody somewhere isn't getting what they "expected" to get, and they tell the world how terrible we are.
I've no doubt the product is excellent and great value for money, I'd liked to have ordered but can't be doing with it waiting month to month and taking a punt and the money saved for me is neither here nor there so I exercised another option I just think its a bit of a missed opportunity for you - though i accept I don't know how you solve it - though I ran a manufacturing business and didn't go bankrupt so I understand some of the issues.
I don't understand why you are mentioning the 16 month lag time for orders? The wheels you have coming in are not spoken for yet as you don't do true "pre-orders" correct? I don't see why you don't say on Day X we are creating a priority list where you sign in and tell you what they want. Then you take your 50% of inventory you mentioned and use it to match your waiting list. The other 50% is business as usual.
You also get real market data. Mailing lists. All good stuff. Maybe it's more work for you? Maybe you like the buzz of the sales and threads like this?
The 16 month lag time comes from the sheer number of people who would sign up. We couldn't fulfill all of the orders with 50% of one container, so wait times would continually increase as wheels were spoken for.
Well of course you couldn't fill all the orders in one shipment. The point of the waiting list was never to fulfill all orders in the next shipment. It would be to reward people who were loyal and waited their turn to buy your product and didn't just happen to get them because they had their account ready, credit card numbers copied into their clipboard, etc. And people who were on the list but it's not their turn are more than welcome to try to get some of the other 50% of your shipment just like normal. You'll still have people upset with you but that's gonna happen regardless.
You mentioned earlier not wanting to have much if any inventory. Wouldn't know what your customers actually want help alleviate that problem? That's of course given that you can select how many of each wheel you would like to take delivery of on each shipment. Which of course may not be a given.
Re: FLO Sells Out Again [tucktri]
[ In reply to ]
tucktri wrote:
Canadian wrote:
tucktri wrote:
Canadian wrote:
Andrewmc wrote:
Firstly thanks for the reply, I do appreciate it and I should say i have no skin in the game as I'm not willing to take a punt on waiting month to month to see if I'll win the lottery, so I went with an alternative option. Like I said, I support that decision.
I suspect, though have no way of knowing, that you hear from the people that its working for, you're not hearing from those that are unsuccessful to the same extent - it would be interesting to know how many people wanted to buy but couldn't.
My experience tells me that people are much more likely to say something when they have something to complain about, not when they are happy.
I think the refund argument is a straw man - I'm waiting 12 months for a bike, the wait for a Sachs or Vanilla is so long that the books were closed on them - the deposits gone, sure people can piss and moan if they change their mind or don't want to wait, but your customer service does not extend - if you don't want it to - to offering refunds if its clearly set out at the start that once you're in you're in.
A straw? It's not even close to a straw. It's really quite black and white. Let me give you a few things to consider.
1. Credit card processing companies always favor the buyer in any transactional dispute. Most good credit card processing companies require you to have a reasonable sales and refund policy. Saying you simply won't give someones money back because you said so, doesn't fly. Upset your credit card processor too many times and you have no way to accept payments.
2. Good luck with keeping a good rating at the better business bureau. A few "these guys ripped me off complaints" later and your company really gets a black eye.
3. What happens when the customer who paid in full calls you and says my child was diagnosed with "x" and I really need the money I put down on my wheels help cover the medical expenses? Or, I just lost my job and I'm really in a hard place? Are we going to tell that guy to go jump in the lake? I guess you could if you wanted but remember points 1 and 2. In the long run you're not going to win. Plus, I don't want to be the guy doing that. The stories above are true and we realize that sometimes life throws you curveballs. We believe that helping our customers out when they are in need will only bring more business our way in the future.
4. Finally, how do you think your public image on forums and social media would look if there were multiple threads and comments stating that they took my money and won't give it back. Especially when that guy says he has a kid who was just diagnosed with cancer?
If you would like to run a business with a no refund policy I wish you luck. It's simply something we are not going to do
The issue you would have is a lack of transparency about when the order arrives - you tell them its 8 months and its 8 months, then they know what they're getting in to.
You're assuming that I can accurately project production times 8 months or more in advance. What happens when a typhoon hits our factory, a container ship crashes, or a production run goes bad? All of which have happened to us. Even if I add time to my estimate, 8 months can easily become 8.5 or 9 months and people get upset. We've been down that road and don't want to go down it again. We believe in taking peoples money when we have the product in hand. If I was building frames myself, then I have control of everything, so the timeline model might make sense. When you produce wheels at 5 different factories you lose enough control to make projecting accurate dates difficult.
I'm not asking you to change your model - we're simply engaged in a discussion about lost sales, it seems to me that when you have a list, you're names on it, it gets to your turn in a given period of time, and there's a drop dead date after which you can't back out and you forfeit your deposit.
The only difference in the way its currently set up is you please some of the people (what percentage I don't know) some of the time, you can't please all of the people all of the time, but it would seem to me that there's an opportunity for orders to be split between people willing to put their money where there mouth is and wait, and those that want to take a punt on the lottery. If you tell me orders are 50/50 lottery and pre-ordered and that the current wait is 8 months, I'd put my order in, pay my cash and if I wanted to enter the lottery I could do that as well and you simply take the next person in line as a guaranteed order - either way no loss for you and I know exactly how I can plan my purchase and whether it works for me or not.
Here's the thing. Let's say we offer a pre-order option. Let's assume using 50% of my inventory I'm now at a 16 month wait time. How exactly do we take pre-orders? Naturally, everyone wants to be the first to get their order in, but that's not possible. So we set up the "FLO" pre-order event on a first come first serve basis. Everyone rushes to get their pre-order in. Then they get an email saying congrats, you made the last group. We'll be able to get you your wheels in 16 months. Do you know what that guys does? He complains. He's upset because he expected to be in the first group OR he expected to wait a maximum of 3 months, but now he has to wait 16 months. So he comes on Slowtwitch and complains that he is in the 16 month group and cancels his order.
What I've learned is that people are mostly upset because they didn't get exactly what they wanted, when they wanted it. We live in an instant gratification society. I wanted to buy something today, I set myself up to expect it, and then when I don't get that, I'm furious and tell the world how much the guys at FLO suck.
No matter what type of sales structure we offer, somebody somewhere isn't getting what they "expected" to get, and they tell the world how terrible we are.
I've no doubt the product is excellent and great value for money, I'd liked to have ordered but can't be doing with it waiting month to month and taking a punt and the money saved for me is neither here nor there so I exercised another option I just think its a bit of a missed opportunity for you - though i accept I don't know how you solve it - though I ran a manufacturing business and didn't go bankrupt so I understand some of the issues.
I don't understand why you are mentioning the 16 month lag time for orders? The wheels you have coming in are not spoken for yet as you don't do true "pre-orders" correct? I don't see why you don't say on Day X we are creating a priority list where you sign in and tell you what they want. Then you take your 50% of inventory you mentioned and use it to match your waiting list. The other 50% is business as usual.
You also get real market data. Mailing lists. All good stuff. Maybe it's more work for you? Maybe you like the buzz of the sales and threads like this?
The 16 month lag time comes from the sheer number of people who would sign up. We couldn't fulfill all of the orders with 50% of one container, so wait times would continually increase as wheels were spoken for.
Well of course you couldn't fill all the orders in one shipment. The point of the waiting list was never to fulfill all orders in the next shipment. It would be to reward people who were loyal and waited their turn to buy your product and didn't just happen to get them because they had their account ready, credit card numbers copied into their clipboard, etc. And people who were on the list but it's not their turn are more than welcome to try to get some of the other 50% of your shipment just like normal. You'll still have people upset with you but that's gonna happen regardless.
You mentioned earlier not wanting to have much if any inventory. Wouldn't know what your customers actually want help alleviate that problem? That's of course given that you can select how many of each wheel you would like to take delivery of on each shipment. Which of course may not be a given.
I'm not sure why you think your method is better.
Like you said yourself, some people are going to be unhappy no matter what. So why mess with the current system?
Chris and Jon have been pretty clear regarding their aims and methodology:
They want to provide the wheels at affordable prices.
They don't sell wheels before they have them in their hands.
They want to retain full ownership of FLO
They put the wheels up for sale as soon as they have them, and it so happens that they are popular enough that a crapshoot ensues for a few minutes until they are sold out.
A waiting list system wouldn't help this situation, it would only complicate it.
There would be a similar rush to get on the waiting list until it got impractically long (ref. Canadian's "16 month lead time" comment). At which point you would have people rushing in a similar way to how they are now, with the only difference being that they will have to wait over a year after payment rather than a few weeks.
Re: FLO Sells Out Again [jackmott]
[ In reply to ]
Interesting thread!
Just curious, but if flo is materially underpriced and not meeting demand given their business model wouldn't it make sense that this would result in higher than retail cost second party sales? People tend to find and exploit arbitrage opportunities. I have seen flo wheels sell on the board for a modest discount to retail, but never higher.
Just curious, but if flo is materially underpriced and not meeting demand given their business model wouldn't it make sense that this would result in higher than retail cost second party sales? People tend to find and exploit arbitrage opportunities. I have seen flo wheels sell on the board for a modest discount to retail, but never higher.
Re: FLO Sells Out Again [Orbilius]
[ In reply to ]
Orbilius wrote:
I have seen flo wheels sell on the board for a modest discount to retail, but never higher.
Re: FLO Sells Out Again
[ In reply to ]
Does anybody actually care about the better business bureau?
Maybe it's a generational thing, but I've never heard anybody under 35 talk about it.
Maybe it's a generational thing, but I've never heard anybody under 35 talk about it.
Re: FLO Sells Out Again [JSully]
[ In reply to ]
I certainly don't. They have the same pay-to-play/dishonest practices as Yelp and Angies List.
Re: FLO Sells Out Again [Orbilius]
[ In reply to ]
I have seen flo wheels sell on the board for a modest discount to retail, but never higher.
That is an indication that their retail price, demand, and supply are about right.
That is an indication that their retail price, demand, and supply are about right.
Re: FLO Sells Out Again [rruff]
[ In reply to ]
The price may be about right, but it seems there is more demand than supply based on the number of people who want to purchase the wheels. My first attempt to buy wheels was a complete miss. I tried again in July 2014 and was able to get a 90 rear, but missed out on the 60 front I wanted to go with it. Then in Sept 2014 I was able to pick up the 60 front. Love the wheels. So I thought on the last sale I would pick up a set of 30s. The sale back in Dec (I think) seemed to not be a quick sell out so I was thinking getting a set of 30s would be easy. Completely struck out again. Couldn't get a front or rear 30. So I have made 4 valid attempts to purchase in four separate FLO releases and have been able to make a purchase in two of those four.
Re: FLO Sells Out Again [rijndael]
[ In reply to ]
rijndael wrote:
I certainly don't. They have the same pay-to-play/dishonest practices as Yelp and Angies List.In my experience as a small business owner in dealing with them (in California), they had very dishonest business practices. The experience has since erased any credibility they might have had with me.
They do seem useful in handling customer-to-business disputes, and getting negative feedback back to a business.
The price may be about right, but it seems there is more demand than supply based on the number of people who want to purchase the wheels.
One thing to consider is that their scarce nature tends to increase their perceived value, desirability, resale, etc. I don't know how much, but I suspect there is a little of that going on.
Also, I'm pretty sure their limited growth allows the company to give better customer service... ie the owners and staff are not overwhelmed (finances or time). Separate issue, but something to consider.
One thing to consider is that their scarce nature tends to increase their perceived value, desirability, resale, etc. I don't know how much, but I suspect there is a little of that going on.
Also, I'm pretty sure their limited growth allows the company to give better customer service... ie the owners and staff are not overwhelmed (finances or time). Separate issue, but something to consider.