Cue the reckless Contador attack in an unexpected-but-probably-should-have-expected-given-its-Contador type of place.

My guess is on the Col de Mente.

Group of 16 goes up the road with a mix of stage hunters and domestiques for the GC support. Sky exerts solid control until the Peyragudes.

Four guys from the break start the last climb with 6 minutes and it whittles down to the stage winner.

A couple of the GC contenders put in probing attacks to see if Froome is vulnerable, but he isn't and they ride a controlled tempo to the top. Two or three HC contenders gets dropped (Contador and Yates).

Everyone saves their remaining resources for Friday

I'm hoping contador does something, but I'm expecting something from Astana.
Sky is without Thomas, which is a fairly signicant loss.
Aru and Fulgsang should attack early and often tomorrow, see just how much Foorme has left.
It'd be great if C'dale makes a move to support Uran also. Time for Rolland and Talansky to show their form

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Will be interesting to see how banged up Fuglsang and Contador are and if they can have any impact. I feel everyone is downplaying Quintana. By week 3, everyone is on fried legs, rather than just him and the Giro guys. He may be more of a factor, but we'll see.

Do you think Talansky and Rolland can get in the early escape on the stage hunt, or will they hold them back to help Uran. I think the better strategy is to send them up the road with an option to drop back to Uran.

I'm hoping we could see something from George Bennett. He went into this tour stage hunting and stated that he was going to give up lots of time in order to do this...but he was one of the best of the rest in the last mountain stage, so will be interesting to see what he does.

That would be cool to see Bennett pull off a stage win here in the next 2 days! Pretty solid crew of 4 riders from NZ (more than Americans)....it's a shame that on the 150th year for Canada with the tour starting on our national birthday (July 1) we have zero riders this year :-(

I'm afraid we'll have the Sky train controlling everything tomorrow with Froome giving it a go with 2 km to go.

But Rolland and/or Talansky getting in the break AND going for the stage win would be entertaining. Haven't seen anything from Talansky yet, and maybe he doesn't have anything to show.

I doubt that Uran would attack Froome with or without their support. Uran can simply mark Froome and if he has the legs he can be the one attacking in the final 2 km.

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"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.

My prediction: Astana (Aru, Fuglsang) and Uran race against Bardet for 2nd again (just like they did in the Alps instead of trying to race for 1st). Froome is safe, they don't believe they can beat him (Bardet the only one trying).

Aru needs to draw even by the end of the Pyranees to Froome. Then in the Alps he needs to take the Izouard uphill finish by at least 20 seconds and get the 10 second bonus. That puts him 30 seconds into the Marseille ITT. The Marseilles ITT is not totally unfavorable to Aru as it appears to have a short 1K climb at >10% out of the full 22K. Time wise that climb is 10% of of the TT where Aru can be on par for sure and should not lose too much on the descent. Same applies to Bardet. Bardet also has the Galibier descent to Serre Chevalier on the day before Izouard where he could make up time. Either way, my take is both Bardet and Aru have to exit the Pyranees in a tie with Froome to set up the Alps to come out in Yellow to have buffer for the ITT.

Basically Froome just needs to mark all these guys and wait for Marseilles. With Porte out, it changes the picture. None of these guys can ITT with Froome. When Porte was around, Froome would have not had the "play defense option". He would have had to attack (as he did at the top of Mont du Chat).

Having said all this, I don't think Froome will play defense and just wait for the ITT. He's going to pick places to attack and attack hard.

Even more easy for him to do this when all of these guys (save Bardet) are actually working FOR him.

Realistically, Aru is the only genuine threat to Froome at this stage.
I'm thinking he has the freshest legs of anyone, and we know he can climb, and he's won grand tours on his palmares.
Bardet would need a 3 minute lead on Froome going into the ITT to beat him and I cannot envisage that.
Uran would need something extraordinary to happen to take the yellow, in a race known for being predictable.

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Realistically, Aru is the only genuine threat to Froome at this stage.

The problem is that we have already seen VERY clearly on Sunday that Aru is already just protecting his 2nd place and not actually trying to beat Froome.
So far Bardet is the only one that has been willing to give it a go and Challenge Sky, it hasn't worked thanks to the Sky duo of Aru/Fuglasang but at least he tried. which is much more then Astasky can say.

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I think there is enough firepower between superdomestique Contador + Quintana + Dan Martin + Yates to make a break between these 4 men "stick" as Astasky sit around and watch each other. They would need to hope that Bardet hangs around with the Astasky GC group. The "outsiders" have to convince Contador that his best chance is a stage win, and use him like an old used car and get him to driven himself into the ground on the hope of passion and a stage win, until of course he explodes dramatically at which point Quintana keeps going in roboclimberdroid pulling along Martin and Yates with Yates and Martin taking turns to create a gap on Astasky. They just can't have Bardet with them or Astasky will shut them down. Friday's stage seems like the right one for the guy on the outside of the GC to gang up and make it happen. I think they can't have Uran in this group or it gets shut down instantly. But these guys need to get coordinated with each other and pick when this is happening and it has to happen from way out....like 2 mountains away from the finish, not the final climb. Don't forget that if Contador thinks passion can get him a stage win, he has Mollema, Pantano and also the old cat Haimar Zubeldia to help the cause it all this happens early enough. Zubeldia is way past his "best before" due date, but that guy can read enough races to make things happen...he's in his 16th TDF with 14 finishes already and 5 top 10's.

this is the race, right here we will know who has been pretending and how much Froome will win by. conti is done, he just needs to walk away. Quintana has to take advantage of the summit finish if he wants to remain in this race. the break will be reeled in today, just too hard of a day.

Froome victory lap at its best, yawn. Hopefully Bardet/Aru attack for 2nd place!

About to get on plane, can you provide more details?

watch the last 500 meters- the rest of the stage was boring.

Its a shame Dan Martin crashed on Sunday, he would be higher up.

We all need to officially stop mentioning Contador, he will be lucky to finish in top 10. Tinkoff was right about him last year.

What a finish! What an end to the stage!

Normally I would say yes, but this is part of Froome's plan, now his team does not need to control anymore.

That's cold man!

Wow! Was that a crack? Fromme is broken on the final ramp up to the finish and loses some time. Are Aru and the others thinking - maybe we should have gone earlier?

What a great finale!

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Froome just lost yellow. They climbed together but Aru pulled out in the last 1.5K. Aru is wearing yellow by 6 seconds. Looks like he's the best climber now but... there are not enough climb finishes for him to take more time on Froome. Froome probably takes it back in the TTT before Paris.

That last hew hundred meters was steep as hell, I had a feeling Aru/Bardet would get the stage. Froome struggles on something that steep. I wonder if Landa was allowed to go ahead?

Agree. I heard on the stages podcast that he was spinning on 38 by 32 the other day going up on the Alps... Probably not the combination he was at the end of this stage but no matter how crazy cadence he can put, a smaller gear than the rest on a finish is gonna cost him. Would be interesting to see what combo he was on in the last 1.5K because it looks like that's when he lost yellow.

It really was.

Almost as good as reading how much utter twaddle is written on ST about this race.
I was told Aru only wants to be second and that it's a parade for Froome. Lol.
Now Aru is in the lead and apparently that was the plan all along.
Because Froome really wants to have three other riders within 29 seconds of him with nine stages to go.
Priceless stuff, comedy genius.

OK, stuck in meetings but it seems my "requirement" for Aru+Bardet to pull even with Froome leaving the Pyranees and then trying to get ahead on the Izouard stage in the Alps is partially a reality. I don't think Izouard is steep enough for Aru to replicate this and it will more than likely be Froome diesel powermeter/stem staring keeping the heat on everyone. Then we're down to the final TT. Real shame that Porte is not here, but hey, its actually interesting and not a complete snooze!!!! I can't wait to watch the replays tonite.

Looks like the only way to be at the top of the GC is negative body fat!!!

I am sticking with what I said, guarantee Froome still wins yellow by minutes by stage 21. It is really is too predictable, but if you guys are enjoying then good.

3+ hours of boring, followed by 60 seconds of unbelievable excitement. Worth it!

Sadly, I think we've seen the last of Alberto Contador. And part of me thinks Sky let the jersey go, knowing that it adds spice to the race, allows them to rest a bit and that Chris Froome will smoke his competition in the final TT.

perfect summary and you did not even watch today!
Too bad about Dan Martin Crashing on Sunday, he could have been in yellow also.

Not sure if Froome is going as far as to sandbag it (doubt it), but do think he's left his peak later for this Tour than in previous years and will be getting stronger into the third week. If I'm wrong then the next week could see some cracking racing, as Froome has normally faded a little in the third week but it's never really mattered before as he's already built a decent lead.

100% agree, I think Froome will have yellow before final TT

Sounds like a great stage from the radio commentary, can't wait to watch the highlights.

I doubt this was part of a Chris Froome/Sky masterplan and shows that Froome is human.

Could be an interesting last 10 stages, especially when it goes uphill again. I still think Froome will take the victory come Paris.

Game on.

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Blog: http://www.coopstriblog.wordpress.com
Latest blog: Setting Goals. With or Without Gin.
Date: 10/31/2017

Chapeau to Gervais Rious and the team at Argon-18. They become the second Canadian bike company to be in the lofty, and proud position of being part of a Yellow Jersey team at the Tour de France! Best wishes for continued success!

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Sadly, I think we've seen theist of Alberto Contador. And part of me thinks Sky let the jersey go, knowing that it adds spice to the race, allows them to rest a bit and that Chris Froome will smoke his competition in the final TT.


I don't know about that - letting it go.

The strategy with Landa and Nieve ( Mikal x2!!) on the front seemed to be to wear everyone down. That seemed to be the case, because when they hit the final climb, everyone seemed on the limit or over - including Froome who really struggled up the final ramp.

Froome is NOT out of it at all. In fact, not having Yellow has it's advantages.

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Just saw on Eurosport, Landa was told to try and get ahead of Aru to stop him from getting the bonus seconds

I'm waiting for a show of contrition from everyone who smugly declared the GC race over after the prologue.

Exactly! I almost bumped the TDF is over/boring/finished thread whatever it was called?

Bardet has made me £110 richer also as I bet on him to win the stage.

you are guys are funny, like I said above if you are all enjoying it then good., I love cycling, just think the TDF is boring compared to the Giro/Vuelta.

TDF needs more mountaintop finishes like today, unfortunately there is only one more. By the end of of the TT on Stage 20 Froome will be leading by at least 2-3 minutes. I would put money on it.

I am happy for Aru and the one day of excitement. Its all predictable. Astana has to control tomorrow, which means a breakway will succeed tomorrow. Froome will be back in yellow by stage 18.

You're talking about a breakaway succeeding as if it were a bad thing. There is nothing more exciting than a successful breakaway.

Also it appears Froome is unable to just ride guys off his wheel at will on climbs this year. That's new. Sky has to scheme for bonus seconds, etc. That's just good racing.

There are still 6-7 guys competing for the 3 GC podium spots, and none of those spots are locked down.

Today we had a AG2R and Cannondale GC guys 1-2 on a legit mid-tour mountain stage. When's the last time that happened?

I'd tend to agree about the last 4-5 TdF's. But I think if you set aside your bongload of Hater Kush for a minute, it might dawn on you this is shaping up to be a pretty decent bike race.
(ignoring the whole Sagan deal).

I agree with you & I hope your right.

sucks that Uran & Bennett were docked bonus seconds for taking a bottle today, another reason I hate this race. Bardet may be deducted time as well for taking a bottle. Plus I am still pissed about Dan Martin crashing Sunday, he would be up there also.

I said I am super excited Uran is having a good race, he was always great to watch in the Giro, and I really like Bardet, finally a serious French contender. In the end they are all fighting for 2nd & 3rd, Froome is in a league of his own. I hope this is the year I am wrong and will will see over the next 9 stages. Even though I am a hater I still have on my illegal feed at work on my 2nd monitor, I love this sport, tired of seeing the same thing each year.

I'm a sentimental sort who is wondering if Michele Scarponi is looking down and smiling today.

That was a great finish, and I'm pretty sure the Sky plan did not include being dropped by Aru, Bardet, Uran, Landa Meintjes, and Martin on the final climb, this not the Froome we've seen in years gone by.
Is it the beginning of the decline of the skytrain?
Quintana and El Pis are toast
I'm anticipating even more drama to morrow, one of the shortest stage this year 101km, but 3 cat 1 climbs and a long descent towards the finish.

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Cyclingnews live feed report

18:28:34 CEST
Video footage from the finish shows that Landa and DS Portal had a bit of a disagreement outside the bus. Portal said afterwards that he wasn't angry with Landa.



18:18:14 CEST
There seems to be some disagreement in the Sky camp after that stage. Mikel Landa tells the Spanish press that he could have been a contender for the victory today if he'd been allowed to go for it.

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If they drop froome again.. froome will be able to catch back up on the descent.. Stage 18 will be the one.

Seemed like it was more Froome and not the train. Landa finished pretty well

Too bad Uran has kinda let his TT skills go. He was really competent when he was at Sky, but he really seems to have struggled since he went to Cannondale. Bardet still sucks on a TT bike and Aru would be only so so.

x2

Thanks for the reminder on that. No matter how you cut it and you can not love Astana, for his teammates to succeed and have a great Dauphine and now a solid tour is excellent for the team. Bummer about Fuglsang's crash yesterday though.

CN reported that Vaughters complained that Bardet also took a bottle. I haven't seen where Bardet was also penalized though. More fuel for the Francophobes.

Froome won't be happy about today's result, but that final 20 degree climb didn't really suit him. He'll be concerned, but the final ITT leaves him as the favorite. I don't see where Aru can put enough time into Froome between now and the ITT, but today's result makes things a lot more interesting.

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"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.

Appears Lotto have video of Bardet taking a bottle as well. Overall i am not sure what today really demonstrates. Froome has always struggled on very steep finishes like today so i am not sure this is really a sign of collapse. SKY was clearly frustrated at the end, but there was nothing they could have done differently. AC and Quintana are done. Tomorrow will give us a much better indication if Froome is actually on the decline.

Feels like the race would be really interesting if Sky wasn't quite as strong or if Froome was on a different team.

As is, it's hard to see anyone building up the kind of cushion they'd need over Froome going into the TT. Kwiatkowski, Niaves and Landa are just too strong to let anyone get away early enough. Like Wiggins did with Froome in 2012, all Froome has to do is just stick to Landa's wheel in the mountain and then time trial himself to victory.

Side note: it's such a bummer that Fuglsang is hurt. Would have been great to see him and Aru try something as bold as the epic but ultimately doomed Frank & Andy Schleck attack from 2011.

Bastille day tomorrow. I really hope Bardet goes for it early on the last climb knowing that he can hold off Froome on the descent, and possibly put even more time into him. Everyone has been afraid to attack Froome too early, but if they actually want to beat him they have to put more than 10-20 seconds into him.

After Froome's descent attack last year I'm thinking that would be a big ask to hold him off.

I think Bardet has to do that early attack and free fall descent tomorrow and on the Galibier stage. If he can pull that off and also have a buffer on Izoard, maybe there is a race for yellow. Froome just has to limit losses till the ITT.

Didn't Bardet ride away from Froome on the descent on stage 9?

I don't think anybody could attack, the pace was simply too high today. SKY riding tempo dropped Quintana and AC, two very good climbers. I am not sure why people hate SKY, what they are able to do is simply amazing.

It is surprising how Uran used to win TT stages years ago and now only can hope for a podium on a good day; almost as if the Cannondale Slice is slowing him down.
The fricken TdF jury penalized Uran 20 seconds for taking a bottle! So far no penalty for Bardet, who according to Vaughters also took a bottle.
The final climb in stage 13 is also 18%, I'm hoping for fireworks on the up and drama on the descent

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Yeah, but there was that long flat run in to the finish. Why risk staying with Bardet when Froome could just ride his own pace down the mountain and only lose a few seconds? He had plenty of allies with him that would help chase Bardet down and he knew it.

No, we do not have a GC race. Froome will recuperate with bread and water tonight and crush them tomorrow.

I'm betting Froome will recover the GC tomorrow.

Don't forget about a few shots of the Floyd Llandis approved extra strength Malt whiskey and it could be magical turbo fuel on the bread and water program. Throw is a few espressos to the final turbo surge and you have all the marginal gains available under the blood passport!

Cannondale's breakfast bread is not marginally as good.

In all seriousness, it could just be as simple as having to be on the throttle every day on every stage as the main guy on the team vs a helper? if you're a helper, there are breaks to be had after you do your helper duties so there is potentially more recovery built in even though when you are in the front and on, you are working darn hard.

For those interested:

George Bennett's strava file indicates an average power of 221W and a max of 970W for this stage, with 366W for the peyragudes 2.3km section.I think George's strava includes his warmup as well possibly though.

Romain Bardet's power isn't showing on his strava.

366W sounds easy enough for many on this board...;)

Uran is the biggest danger to Froome, he can TT well and has a strong finish. If Uran can grab a few seconds tomorrow and survive the final few mountain stages this could be an exciting final TT. Bardet on the other hand has a rather abysmal TT and could possibly loose 1:30 or more to Froome on the final TT.

Hats of to Kittel by the way for getting into the break and going for points, he is serious about keeping green!

This race jury has killed the race. Removal of Sagan, ignoring Demare, slap on the wrist for Bouhanni, and now no penalty for Bardet.

Keep in mind the final TT has 1K climb at 10% and the ensuing descent (don't know how technical). Out of 22K, that's 3K right there, but more like 20% of the overall TT time, that leaves 80% of the time for him to lose time on. I am thinking this is going to barely be a 27-28 min TT for these guys. Can he really lose 90 seconds in such a short time frame?

vital for the win! i couldn't be happier, good stuff!

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He didn't know it. He ended up in that position because he doesn't have the descending skills of Bardet and wasn't willing to risk it. He would have been expecting the others not to help him like logically should have happened as the others should have taken the gamble and used him up being in yellow. Instead stupidly they just all rolled through. I don't think that will happen again...

Maybe Aru and Bardet will go with pane e acqua. But bread and water doe's not sound skyish. I guess for them it's (glutenfree) brown rice and a kale smoothie.

No I'm kidding. But sky always seems to have the only guys that are skinny as hell for the mountains and can still be absolute TT studs. Wiggo was like that in 2012 when he won the Tour and Olympic TT gold. Froome obviously is like that. But the others seem not to have this top end TT power when at mountain stage weight. It surprises me since 2012.
The great Triathlon bikers are not the small guys after all.
Dumoulin could be another one doing both. But he is not at that hardcore weight (yet?).
(I'm

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10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40

What about the zero wins in 2017? Does that not indicate that he is on the decline?

It is so satisfying to see Sky and Froome be beaten at least on one day. Yes, Froome will likely end up winning, but not so sure he will be able to say he was best rider in race this year.. best team yes. Bob and Christian were pretty happy Sky was beaten on the day.

After today's 100K stage what is your take on his state. I don't think he is on the decline, just maybe not have the extreme high end power to weight ratio from past years, but his watt/cda seems to be close enough. He may not have the same acceleration as the Froome from 2012 when he was surging on Wiggo....now Froome is being ''Froomed" by Landa

Can anyone tell me why Talansky is not up in the main group protecting Uran? He seems to disappear mid stage and finishes with the sprinters 20 or 30 back. Why are they paying this guy?

I still think he's just on a different training programme this year, targeting a Tour-Vuelta double. Where in previous years he's hit good form before the Tour at races like the Dauphine, taken a grip of the Tour early on, and then Vuelta has seemed like an afterthought. Looks like he has also lost a bit of that ability to put in short surges of acceleration to ride people off his wheel, but that's not uncommon as riders get older and I'd bet he's not lost anything in terms of FTP.