NK leader has nothing better to do than build a missile program. US leader has nothing better to do than tweet.

A) I don't see that January tweet as a line in the sand
B) his most recent tweet is not inconsistent especially because I believe our allies and frenemies in the region probably requested a bit less bluster
C) Decapitation attack and or a coup is the solution

Perhaps China will put a heavy move on North Korea and end this nonsense once and for all!" — Donald J. Trump

Trump has no clue.

I am pretty sure that harshly worded tweets will put an end to this issue.

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

Why do you take that position? I think China likes a little bit of crazy there, but not so much it starts actually causing issues

I think i said somewhere else. North korea could be a conflict you could win. It would have none of the cultural issues of the middle east

Perhaps China will put a heavy move on North Korea and end this nonsense once and for all!" — Donald J. Trump

Trump has no clue.

Why do you take that position?

China will not put a "heavy move" on North Korea because they want them to have nuclear weapons to act as a buffer against South Korea and it's supporter (the U.S). The last thing China wants is a unified Korean Peninsula. They repeatedly said they will take strong actions but they haven't done a thing and continue to trade with NK.

For China, everything is about money and getting resources so they can make money. They are only interested in peace if the peace meets those goals. The last thing they want is a unified Korean peninsula because they could lose a big trading partner and a unified Korea would pose a threat to their security. They want a buffer between the U.S and it's allies and their own borders. They are building bases in the South China Sea for the potential oil and to provide security, that is what they do and they have zero interest in working towards world peace unless it enhances their goal of making money.

There's a difference between a unified Korea and changing the regime to a little less crazy and belligerent

I think i said somewhere else. North korea could be a conflict you could win. It would have none of the cultural issues of the middle east

So we're just going to start re-cycling our wars...uhh conflicts?

~Matt

Our friends in South Korea might have something to say about the definition of "winning." E.g. it's my understanding that though we could take out North Korea pretty quickly, probably not quickly enough to prevent them from raining hell on Seoul.

This which is why you need a coup or decapitation strike

There's a difference between a unified Korea and changing the regime to a little less crazy and belligerent

That is true but how do you do that? How does a crazy person become a little less crazy?

I don't know what the solution is but I do know looking to China for help is futile. If the world waits for China (or Russia) to solve problems, we're in for a long wait.

Even if you take out the great and the good its not as if some exiled leadership team can be brought in to assume the role. Some degree of succession planning is needed. You dont want the generals left in charge

Coup and I like I said above I think it's in China's best interest to have eccentric NK but not bat shit crazy NK.

But even then there's no guarantee.

In a perfect world you'd have an insider. Some faction of senior military with ready to seize control and issue the stand-down after the coup/decapitation. Otherwise in the confusion afterwards the military might just carry out whatever armageddon-type plans they have. As any disciplined military would be expected too.

We may not, but China would probably be down with that.

By definition a coup would be by an insider and it is my preferred method. A decapitation strike would also necessitate an insider but making contact without Chinese acquiesce or help would probably be difficult

Our friends in South Korea might have something to say about the definition of "winning." E.g. it's my understanding that though we could take out North Korea pretty quickly, probably not quickly enough to prevent them from raining hell on Seoul.

Does anyone here think China or Russia just sits there while we attack their neighbor? Didn't quite work out that way last time around. Short of North Korea doing something so completely horrific and off the charts unprovoked that the there is a world consensus they have to go any military action against them means we will be up against both China and Russia.

~Matt

Yes

No, a coup is just the seizure of power from a government. It's can be by either insiders or outsiders.

This why we don't let some people play at geopolitics and war. There are no certainties.

Here are two reads:

https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...ing-n_b_9335546.html

TL;DR version - every president has tried to get these maniacs in line and all have failed. That's a fact. Even if you don't accept what is written in the above, this is not a new issue. They didn't just start testing missiles and now Trump is caught off guard.

So for the geniuses in the LR, given all the strategies employed by his predecessors have failed gloriously, what exactly would you suggest Trump does now?

I'll even allow you to cheat off prior Presidents and tell us what those other non-Twitter-using geniuses did that was so effective. Careful, though, before you answer you should at least scan what I linked to so you only look marginally stupid in your answer.

Me, I have no idea what to do.

No one is expecting Trump to be smart enough to have a solution to this, or pretty much any, important problem.
We are just hoping he's sufficiently self-conscious not to start tweeting unenforceable statements so he can grandstand and make himself feel important.
Its a low bar to clear, but apparently even that is too much for him.

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Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's

This which is why you need a coup or decapitation strike

I think a decapitation strike would be difficult, their weapon sites are likely pretty fortified and spread out so you would need a lot of strikes. A coup is probably the best bet but difficult when NK has such control over the people.

The best bet is probably with special forces taking Kim and the top brass out. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to find out that some South Korean special forces backed by the U.S are already in place.

Fair enough. My point is you're not serious about this. What "smart" President before Trump had the solution?

My interest is pointing out that Trump's grandstanding is no different than the other's grandstanding. They just do it with big words and suave. Hey, if that makes you feel better, good on you, but neither achieves results.

The sooner we all realize this, the sooner we might actually get a candidate that's not a liar and who can actually bring our country together.

So for the geniuses in the LR, given all the strategies employed by his predecessors have failed gloriously, what exactly would you suggest Trump does now?

No one is blaming Trump, NK has been a problem for a long time.

I think people are concerned because Trump has never shown any interest in foreign policy anywhere in the world. He said earlier that China was going to do great things to help with North Korea, after a single conversation, and of course they didn't. He seemed surprised by that. Trump doesn't seem to have any idea of what China wants or any interest in trying to figure it out.

Trump sees the world in black and white and this isn't a black and white issue. There are a lot of factors in play including how China would react to a strike against NK, the risk in South Korea and the other countries close by, the role of Russia and the Western allies etc.

It also doesn't help Trumps credibility, or inspire confidence, when he spends so much time on Twitter while these problems are brewing.

Is this China/Russia action good or bad? Seems we kinda know what China wants now?

https://www.reuters.com/...hkorea-idUSKBN19P1Q7

Because previous candidates didn't pretend that North Korea and the Middle East had easy solutions. Almost 1500 years of Muslim conflict in the Middle East won't be solved easily. 50 years of NK/Russia/China nuclear proliferation will not have an easy solution. In fact, I think it is reasonable to believe that these situations don't have any solution in the normal sense of the word.

I actually don't really blame Trump for saying it. I blame him for apparently believing it himself and his believers for buying it.

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I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

Is it reasonable to assume we will ever elect a politician who will say these things don't have a solution?

My take is whether you say it's easy and do nothing or say it's hard and do nothing, you still have done nothing. And, you are both liars because you both said you could do something. Just because one lie seems "more stupider" than the other doesn't make it any more of a lie. Nor does it make the politician any dumber or less effective.

I fundamentally reject the people who criticize when they, themselves, have done nothing or have supported other candidates who also have done nothing.

Is this China/Russia action good or bad? Seems we kinda know what China wants now?

No, China does not want "dialog" or "mutually beneficial solutions". China wants the status quo because of close business ties with North Korea and NK being a buffer against South Korea and the U.S.

At the UN, China always signs up to impose sanctions but they have never followed through. They always find loopholes and so you have a public statement and reality.They constantly play both sides of the coin.

China and Russia would like nothing better than to undermine the U.S influence in Asia. They are both going on the offensive now because they see a weakness in how the world views Trump and are trying to take charge. They feel that if they show leadership, more countries, particularly in SE Aisa, will align with them. That would provide their ultimate goal and that is more power and more economic trade.

The problems are that NK is rogue and China does not want millions of refugees. I see three potential outcomes to choose from:

1. Kim is overthrown

2. China works covertly to quell Kim and help improve relations with the US

3. Limited military strikes at NK.

I think door #2 works best.

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"The great pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do."

 I'm waiting to see what Canada does to deal with the problem.

dave_w wrote:

I'm waiting to see what Canada does to deal with the problem.

According to latest reports this is a true ICBM - capable or reaching.... Yukon, Canada.
Yo, the shit just got real!





Canadian special forces have already mobilized a unit of highly trained B.E.A.V.E.R. operatives to paddle behind Korea's lines and to gnaw their missiles to pieces.
The difference is that our rodents are smart enough not to tweet about it beforehand.

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Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's

I'm waiting to see what Canada does to deal with the problem.

Well, we don't have anyone as qualified as Trump so you have that going for you.

Or a military that can project strategic power.

Or a military that can project strategic power.

Well then no Canadians should be allowed to speak about North Korea. That goes for every person in every country in the world except the U.S, Russia and China and people in England and France can say a little but not too much.

Carry on.

Oh you can talk all you want, you just can't do anything about it. Sleep tight tonight under the security umbrella I pay for.

Oh you can talk all you want, you just can't do anything about it. Sleep tight tonight under the security umbrella I pay for. //

You mean Japan and China pays for, or the other countries that are loaning us the money to fund a bloated military. It is possible that none of your tax dollars go to funding the military...

I don't think you understand how a loan works

Oh you can talk all you want, you just can't do anything about it.

Unless you're in the military stationed near NK, or maybe in the Special Ops or making decisions in Washington, there's not a lot you can do about it either.

It's okay though, Trump's on it.

I meant the collective you as in the impotent Canadian military ... what strategic platforms do you have?

Don't make me tweet again! I'll do it!!!!

Don't go with #3. If we're going to use military force use overwhelming military force. It wouldn't be easy to simply kill Kim and/or to eliminate their nuclear weapons and missile programs with a "surgical strike". Even if we were successful with a limited strike, then what?

Trump would need to convince the US public and our allies in the region that going to war with N Korea is the best option. Along with that he'd need to get China to at least stay out of the war. It doesn't look like he has what it would take to do either of these things.

You're correct. Go with #2.

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"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.

Hey why don't you guys stop asking for our help if we're so useless?

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

I used to say give a guy enough rope and he'll hang himself, but you only continue to stretch your neck further and look even more silly than you do on your anti Cuba/Castro rants. There is fuck all that can be done about North Korea. They're a little kid under a little kid dictator puffing up trying to be a big kid and nothing more and he's not stupid enough to start a war with the west as he knows he'd get destroyed but we also know not first without doing huge damage to SK. But he can continue to be a pain in the ass, albeit an impotent one. You're not going to have a USA backed coup in NK. Like that's worked out well so many times before. Ain't gonna happen. Might as well send Dennis Rodman back over for some basketball diplomacy.

What help do we ask for or better yet need?

Um a disproportionate response to a little Canada booger flinging. Chill out dude.

Comic relief?

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If there are no dogs in Heaven, then when I die I want to go where they went. - Will Rogers

Emery's Third Coast Triathlon | Tri Wisconsin Triathlon Team | Push Endurance | GLWR

My point is you can't decapitate or pull off a coup all that easy.

If it was easy it'd just be the way

(hat tip if anyone knows the movie without Google)

Road Trip!

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If there are no dogs in Heaven, then when I die I want to go where they went. - Will Rogers

Emery's Third Coast Triathlon | Tri Wisconsin Triathlon Team | Push Endurance | GLWR

Winner winner chicken dinner

Everyone hates us 'cos they aint us.

---

Swim. Overbike. Walk.

"I think i said somewhere else. North korea could be a conflict you could win. It would have none of the cultural issues of the middle east "

What is your definition of winning?

Jet.

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If there are no dogs in Heaven, then when I die I want to go where they went. - Will Rogers

Emery's Third Coast Triathlon | Tri Wisconsin Triathlon Team | Push Endurance | GLWR

New rocket launch today. It flew for 6 min longer than the last and well within Japan's 200 mile exclusive economic zone.

And the US is considering "military response options."

First time I've heard that from Dunford on North Korea.

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Suffer Well.

The chit is about to get real. We now have the potential that a fat, delusional, egotist with the ability to attack targets across the globe will be squaring of against his Asian equivalent. We all will be losers in that game.

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Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's

I think with Mattis, McMaster, Kelly, Tillerson, and the Joint Chiefs. there's enough intelligence, character, and fortitude to provide legit checks on Dr. Strangelove-grade insanity.

Though Kelly has just a bit of nutter in him, from what I've read about him.

are china and russia nervous that this wing nut may eventually have missiles pointed at them?
if the fat man thinks he can take on a country half a globe away does he think he can take on/take out these two also?
or do they have enough access, known or unknown to NK, to know that if they wanted fat man gone they have operatives on site that with a call he'd be horizontal within 15-30 mins?

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ΜΟΛΩΝ-ΛΑΒΕ
we're doomed

Probably not that worried about missiles. What China is worried about is what happens with a failed North Korean state - the millions of refugees pouring over the border.

I think China/Russia love the current situation, which is why there hasn't been much help from them. They get a nice buffer between themselves and U.S. allies South Korea and Japan. And they get a lever of negotiation over the U.S. There's probably a price tag at which China actively helps. I just bet it's a steep price. Trade deals, dropping all human rights claims about China, etc, dropping all currency manipulation claims, etc., cutting all military and diplomatic support for Taiwan. Etc.

No U.S. President/Congress has been willing to cut that deal. I thought we should have moved forward with TPP negotiations, because that's one more lever of negotiation the U.S./ Trump could have had (e.g. pulling out as part of the deal, or creating terms favorable to China (even though China isn't a partner in TPP).

The U.S. / South Korea lever of power is convincing China that we're really going to take military action. Because I don't think they want that.

But that's a tough bluff to play because I'm sure China knows that South Korea has by far the most to lose in any military action, with its absolute crown jewel of a city within artillery range of the DMZ. And the best of plans for limited, surgical strike can quickly go wrong. The old saying about what happens to plans at first contact with the enemy....

But maybe Trump is the right guy to play that bluff, because he's got street cred cred playing that batshit crazy card.

Or the West could turn things around and make it clear that unless China does something we will stop buying all their stuff. We could start off with strategic materials before we make any threats. However people really want their stuff for cheap.

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They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

Other than taking a job and then CoS for Trump, what makes him a bit of a nutter?

He's got a little Boston in him, but I heard nothing but exceptional word from those I know who have served with him.

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Suffer Well.

Maybe I'm being too hard. I did include him in the list of rational, good people.

But he's a bit of a super-hawk (Syria, Libya, North Korea, et al) and a super hawk at the ear of Trump just raises my blood pressure slightly, even an honorable super-hawk.

His language is often dark.

And if I had to pick one quote, it's this one:


Forgetting the issue that he apparently wanted to stay in Vietnam, Korea, and Iraq longer which in itself could be considered nutty (though possibly just a disagreement in policy)......what he's talking about is the military can't overthrow the civilian governments when the stupid pussy civilian leaders end the war too soon or mismanage the war. He was lecturing coup-happy Central-American countries.

The slightly nutty thing to me is that he makes it sound like that, as worded, it takes a lot of conscious effort for him not to act. He has to suck it up. To not overthrow the Federal governments of Eisenhower, Nixon, or Obama. ."

Maybe I'm reading too much into that. He gives the right answer after all. I just got the slightest twinge.

He spent 45 years in the Marines and is from Boston. I expect him to be frank and direct in his language and is not a concern to me. But I get his culture. I've read in acticles as his "temperament" was rough, but again given where he came from I think he perhaps needs a cultural adjustment, one that he perhaps has gotten in the last six months.

He is historically spoken his mind, especially when his point of view is at odds with his superiors and this caused some friction with President Obama.

My view of him is largely based upon people who served with him, both senior and junior to him. All to man, hold him in the highest regards. I think he and the President showed their inexperience with the first run through of the travel bans.

I'm interested to see how he and Mooch play together. My bet is on Kelly.

Those same critisms of temperament have been said about Mattis. He's not exactly been politically correct when he was Commanding General of 1st Marine Division either. Hell there are entire website dedicated to his quotes.

http://freebeacon.com/...from-mad-dog-mattis/

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Suffer Well.

I've been thinking about Kelly and why he would take this job for the last several days. I'm not sure about his decision making process and why he thinks the being Chief of Staff is the right thing to do. He's not a politician, he is a man of strong work ethic and accomplished much, moral integrity, and has sacrificed more for our country than most.

So why does he take the job of CoS for a man who serves no one but himself, lack the ability to even discern between truth and lies, and has a flexible relationship with doing what he says he will do? The best I can come up is that he desires to serve this country and thinks that he can do that best. He may have the tools to be successful in getting the cabinet on message and working with Congress to move legislation forward- maybe- but all of the could be undone when his boss goes on a middle of night twitter rant.

I heard it Sunday morning that he is the Chief of Staff... not the Chief of the President and the Trump will be Trump. And there is nothing that anyone - his family included- to moderate Trump.

I came across this article this morning and it says it far better than I could say.

https://www.theatlantic.com/...ys-ascension/535383/

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Suffer Well.

I think China/Russia love the current situation, which is why there hasn't been much help from them.

Both China and Russia would love nothing more than see the U.S in disarray and neither will do anything to change what is happening in Washington. Trump now acts surprised that China isn't doing anything against North Korea but that's only because he doesn't understand China, no surprise there.

Trump and many others (*cough*Ironmayb and JSA*cough*) see China as partners who are there to co-operate with others but they don't see that it's the communist party that is in control in China. For some reason, Trump thinks that China operates like other countries in the West because of their appearance of being a capitalist country but the party controls all public corporations and they are just extensions of the government. They have no interest now or will they have an interest in doing anything except what helps the communist party in China.

It would be immature view of geopolitics as a zero-sum game. China absolutely does not want the US in disarray over the DPRK. It benefits China little and there are some very serious risks. Even Russia, which supported the election of Trump must be feeling unease over this level of potential instability. No sane, rational government - this means China, Russia and the USA (I'll give the White House the benefit of the doubt) wants a major war, potentially involving nuclear weapons.

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Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's

And of course you have to wonder about the DPRK too. I have to assume the leadership there doesn't believe their own propaganda. And they're nothing if not masters of self-preservation. They have to understand that there's no nuclear end-game where their government survives. They have a long history of using military bluster to extract economic concessions. It's the first page in the Supreme Leader's geopolitical playbook. And any real military purpose of their nukes has to be considered defensive ("You try to a decapitation move, we're taking Seoul with us, and will launch a Hail Mary at California, maybe").

Unless there's some paroxysm of genuine insanity and instability, maybe triggered by severe internal conflict, I don't see them initiating a war beyond sinking the odd patrol boat, etc.

But maybe I'm wrong. I'm not a Rand Corp. analyst.

But I hope the Trump administration employs creative measures in dealing with this, neither caving in to concessions again, nor starting a war. This is where Trump deal-making could come in handy, if he's willing. Of course dangling the threat of military action is the best way to gain leverage when initiating talks, so we have to live with the military bluster.

It would be immature view of geopolitics as a zero-sum game. China absolutely does not want the US in disarray over the DPRK. It benefits China little and there are some very serious risks.

What China fears most is a unified Korean peninsula. The last thing they want are North Koreans pouring across their border and having a pro-U.S ally next door. They want Pakistan and North Korea to be unstable, it serves their purpose. They don't look at it as a potential nuclear war, they look at it as being in control of Asia, that's all they care about. They will do nothing to disarm North Korea, they are the ones arming them.

Even Russia, which supported the election of Trump must be feeling unease over this level of potential instability.

They wanted Trump because they hated Obama over the sanctions he imposed and they assumed Clinton would continue them. Clinton also called out Putin over his invasion of the Crimea and he was looking to get rid of her ever since. They also saw in Trump someone without any firm views on Russia and determined they could play him to have the sanctions reversed. They would have succeeded if it wasn't for Congress stepping in and blocking Trump.

Russia's goal with the U.S election was to create instability in the U.S. Putin is a nationalist, looking to regain the strength Russia used to have before the break-up of the U.S.S.R. Any weakness in the U.S is a bonus for Putin and he sees that as far more important than the nuclear threat from North Korea. China and Russia don't think like the West, where we tremble over North Korea. They are very inward looking, trying to build up their own power.

I wouldn't go that far. I bet it makes them a little nervous, being just hundreds of miles from their border. And I'm sure they'd prefer to be the only nuclear power in Asia.

They have completed the next step.

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Suffer Well.

Great . Two leaks today. This and the bit about loading onto patrol boats. I don't get it. I hope people get fired, because neither of those things should be leaked.

Speak loudly and carry and little stick. Or something like that.

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Suffer Well.

That will go over well.

What a stupid thing to say. Now he either has to back up his words and start a war, or he looks even more foolish for not doing so.

Well played, Donald. Well played.

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Long Chile was a silly place.

"North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen. He has been very threatening - beyond a normal statement - and as I said they will be met with fire, fury and frankly power the likes of which the world has never seen before," Trump said, referring to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at an event this afternoon.

They're like 2 kids in a sandbox.

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Suffer Well.