nope Ali not racing. Confirmed start list doesn't include him and he's not been in Queenstown training with Johnny.

Really looking forward to it - head up there this afternoon as am doing my first Olympic Distance in the Age Group races in the morning. Weather not looking as good as last year though.

Will be hard to look past Gomez, Brownlee J, and Mola. Over the Oly distance I'd say it'll be a repeat of last year.

In the women's it's all a out how far back Gwen is after the bike.

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Have a great race! How close is your course to the pro version? Ours in Chicago had lots of overlap.

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I'm curious how Phil Graves will do on the swim and bike after talk in the other thread about him being a potential domestique for the Brownlees at Rio. Looking at his swim times from previous ITU races, he doesn't swim in the front pack, and his last race in New Plymouth he came out about even with Richard Murray. It's hard to see how he would be of any help to the Brownlees unless his swim is much better than those results suggest. I know he's a tremendous biker, but Murray and Mola are strong enough to grab his wheel to get to the front.

So Feketebob, what's up with Ali? Is the ankle more of a problem than previously thought?

I'd love to see Findlay, Sweetland, and Haug up front for the women.

Very close. We do three laps of the bike where they do 8 from memory. We swim in the same part but they do 2 laps of the sprint course. Run is different though. It's a lot of fun coming down Queen St at 60+ kmh :-)

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I think this race will tell us a lot about how this ITU season is going to go. If JB can pull out a win here it might give him the confidence he needs to challenge for the season points victory. I wonder if Gomez was off form a couple weeks ago, or if his attempts at long distance racing have set his short course speed back a little? My gut tells me not to bet against Gomez, but I think I'm going to pick JB for the win, Gomez 2nd, then 3rd could easily be any of the big 3 Australians, but I'm going with Sissons just because of home course advantage.

For the women's race it could get interesting. I could see the bike course causing problems for GJ and putting her too far behind for even her comeback abilities. I'll go Katie Zaferes, Andrea Hewitt, then Sara True for the podium:)

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Sissons has to have an exceptional swim to be with the front group on the bike if he's to podium. Last year he relied on Tom Da is on and his epic bike speed to bring to the front and finish 6th. No TD anymore so that's unlikely.

The Sprint distance doesn't suit Gomez IMO. Not enough room to put the distance between himself and fast runners like Mola. Hence the poor Abu Dhabi showing, plus from memory I think he was under the weather a bit.

I'd love JB to take it out but Gomez seems to have his number.

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I believe Gomez was sick and still feeling whatever it was that caused him to drop out from the Challenge race (hip?) in Abu Dhabi. Hopefully he's ready to roll!

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Bringing people to the front that can run is definitely no good. Graves swim has to get much better and maybe it will.

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I hope Gwen gets dropped big time - nothing against her personally, but it makes for a more exciting race the farther back she is at T2 - I'd like to see some of the other women on top of the podium just to keep things interesting for the season.

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In answer to an earlier question, Alistair Brownlee is back running again. He is down to race in Cape Town at the moment.

Phil Graves swam 49 minutes at Kona when he was only 20, so he has tremendous stamina. So the longer the swim, the better he will do. And he had done no world cup races since 2010 so not surprised that he isn't front pack swimming. But I think on a course like Auckland, he has ever chance to do what Davison did last year and drop anyone who is not exactly on this wheel. It is not a course for large pack chases and it is hard to see past Gomez and Jonny B for the win (unless Mola turns in a front pack swim.)

Gomez did not win any sprints last year, he does not seem to have that top end any more. Looks to be a more challenging bike course that should split the field up a bit

Jorgensen :24 back after the first lap of the swim. She should make the second bike group. Looks like 8 or 9 in the front group. Surely they can't hold off the entire peloton on the bike? Even if they do, it'll take a lot of work to get a big enough lead to hold off Gwen on the run.

On a hilly course like Auckland, there's a much better chance. The women in the front group are absolutely ripping this swim.

Agreed, I forgot that Auckland was a hilly course. They've got a really big lead right now. Routier is a beast in the water.

Going to get caught here.. can't see how they'll beat Gwen now if she gets into that lead pack

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Lisa Norden hammering on the front to drag Gwen back to the front group isn't a winning strategy

Gwen may put 2-3 minutes into them

Gwen is smashing them. 7 in a row. Impressive

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34:10 run for Gwen. Very impressive.

Good to see Jonny Brownlee back to form and a well deserved victory.

Some interesting lessons:

1) Mario Mola showed again that a tough bike course kills his legs. He was only the 17th fastest. Bodes ill for Rio

2) Richard Varga came 7th, showing why it make sense for him to work with the Brownlees rather than against them (as discussed last year).

3) A great third place for Pierre Le Corre, showing the depth of French male athletes

4) Philip Graves had a decent swim and managed to catch up the lead group on his own in remarkable fashion. It destroyed his legs and he DNF-ed, but shows his potential as a domestique for Rio.

5) I have a nagging feeling something is up with Gomez.

Not that I don't think 34:10 is a great time. But when considered in the context of what the boys are running (and despite what a lot of you think the 10km mark is still a target for ITU course planners rather than a benchmark), I actually think the girls run times were sub par for a world event this weekend. Gwen was by far the best of a bunch of athletes who haven't moved forward to the same extent the boys have.

I'm going to edit this as I'm sure someone will question me on it. :)

I believe the girls today are exceptional at 5km off the bike, but have yet to master running 10km off a hard bike. And the way ITU is going, the current cohort may well never master it.

Its hard to directly compare the mens and womens times because the race strategies are completely different. There is no one in women's field who can run faster than Gwen so there is little impetus to try and run the outright fastest time. Instead women's 10km often has more the feel of a T&F championship race strategy where tactics mean you are unlikely to see superfast overall times. The lack of a single clear dominant runner on the men's side, combined with Brownlee/Gomez hard racing preferences, limits tactical racing. The current women's field is comparable to the men's field of a few years ago when you remove Gwen, Brownlees and Gomez. The big drop off in running times from the leaders to most of the field was tactical rather than talent.

Jonny was looking strong. Once Alistair heals up watch out.

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Why does Gwen have "little impetus" to try and run the fastest time? Which races are you watching where the women are jogging for much of the 10K and then finish with a blistering end? Certainly not WTS ones because I can't recall a single one that resembled a T&F championship race with no rabbits where the leaders dawdle at a pedestrian pace for much of the race until someone finally decides to make a move. Gwen is running hard out of T2 (and not slowing down) and the other top women also are running hard out of T2 and continuing with very hard efforts (even if their hard efforts are over a minute slower than Gwen's).

Also, on the men's side there are a ton of tactics going on. Yesterday, Brownlee basically said that he was going to red-line the first K and see if Gomez could follow. Gomez couldn't, JB got away, didn't die and the rest was history. In other races, Gomez has been able to cover every surge put on by either Brownlee and then would have to decide if he wanted to try and outkicked them, which usually he can't, or put in a massive surge from far out and hope that he could break them with his strength (last year he was very successful with that). There also is the dynamic of trying to keep guys like Mola and Murray as far away from the front as possible because they have shown that they can run as fast or faster than the Brownlee/Gomez triumvirate.

4) Philip Graves had a decent swim and managed to catch up the lead group on his own in remarkable fashion. It destroyed his legs and he DNF-ed, but shows his potential as a domestique for Rio. //

I didn't get to see the race, so do not know what Phillip's role was. Did he do work for Johnny once in the group? If so, then it makes sense that he did not run, after all it is not the job of a domestique to finish a race, but to affect it long before the run comes..

He didn't do any work for Brownlee once he bridged the gap. He went a long way alone just to even get up to that lead pack then looked to just hang off the back once he was there. Brownlee was at the middle/front for most of the bike.

Graves just seemed gassed after making his way back to the lead group.

Because she has to race for the next 5.5 months to win another world championship. There is zero reason to run hard once she knows she has won. At that pace she ran yesterday she very well may have not been running hard the last couple laps. The goal is to win races and win the Series Championship. The goal isn't to win the fastest run for the day. By backing off 5-10% those last to laps she's able to get back to training significantly faster.

Well she kept on running hard and extending the lead after she took it. She obviously backed off at the very end but she won by 1:38. that's not taking the pedal off the gas very much, particularly given how hard she swam and biked and how much the hills on the bike had to have taken their toll. She had every impetus to run the fastest time and win the race, which is exactly what she did. It's bizarre you would think that she doesn't have any impetus to have the fastest run split. Note that that is very different than the fastest run split that she is capable of on that given day.

Her aim is surely to win. Not necessarily run the fastest split.
Nobody was in sight behind her so why would you kill yourself running flat out ?

Once the win is secure - you back down. She's a professional and the season is long.

  
Race strategies looked the same to me. There were some athletes who could run fast and some couldn't, in both mens and women's. Some athletes rode harder than others as a result on the bike. Fairly simple.

Looking at the drop off in the top 10 of mens and women's, I stand by my point. Those girls are struggling with mastering the 10km run. In the mens you had to run a 32 to be in the top 10. A 38 snook in the top 10 in the women's.

Different dynamics in terms of break aways, not different strategies.

As I said last week after New Plymouth, the rest of the world better take note of the US. A 34 10km and 2 athletes coming in at 35minutes in the top 20. The focus is so Gwen at the mo, we (the rest of the world) may quite likely hand you guys a clean sweep of the Rio podium if we're not careful.

Tom Bishop looks like a good domestique if they want to go that route.....great front pack swim yesterday, worked hard on the bike with Jonny and placed 13th. It's hard to see how someone who's not swimming front pack can be any use to the Brownlees, but maybe Phil Graves has some ITU swim magic that we haven't seen yet.

Phil Graves was in the top third on the swim, which is respectable (a long way ahead of Mola for example) and if a Brownlee was to have a puncture, then Graves would be able to bring him back to the front group, which Bishop could not. But it is early days and this was Phil's first Olympic distance race for five or more years.

I have so much respect for JB and Gomez. Seeing them pushing the pace in the swim, bike and run is impressive. Seeing those two driving the lead bike pack was awesome.

Gwen is an amazing athlete also, but not in the same way. Maybe it's just me, but the fact that her bike strategy is just to tuck in and let others do all the work, so she can blitz them on the run, tempers my enthusiasm a little. It certainly works for her though. Lisa Norden was her personal domestique this time.

I wonder why nobody from the second pack joined Graves on his solo mission to bridge the gap? Maybe he was just going balls out on the bike to impress the team GB selectors?

In his words on FB:

THAT HURT! Very disappointed i couldn't run, i was on my KNEES after solo chase for 10k & made some awful mistakes but great to be in there!

My guess is that nobody else had the balls to basically TT that 10K with him to catch the leaders. At least Brownlee could duck into the pack every once in awhile and get a rest while leading the charge up front. Graves was all out with no rest that 10K. There weren't many in the race that could have done that.

I was watching the race live and something that struck me was just how small Henri Schoeman is. For one of the best swimmers, he is tiny. Pre race, he walked past and I thought he could have been one of the 13 year old boys who did the super sprint race.

It looked like Viain of France was on his wheel briefly when Graves broke from the pack - evidently Viain couldn't keep it.

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this

Gwen is an amazing runner but doesn't do any work on the bike. That's working for her as she gets to win relatively easily. The other girls need to work the front bike pack much better than they did yesterday. Watching live it looked as they just didn't want to push it and so hopefully fry Gwen's legs or leave her 2-3mins down.

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So your faulting her for racing smart?

Not faulting her, just an observation that she is not as complete an athlete as those top men.

It's all tactics.

Gwen knows that there is no one in the women's field that can run with her. Thus she has no reason to push the pace on the bike if she's in the lead group. When she hasn't made the lead bike group she works to minimize the time difference.

Compare that to the men's field. The Brownlees and Gomez are the most compete athletes but they also realize that if they don't make others hurt on the bike they'll have a chance to run with them. Thus, they push the pace and try to burn up as many folks as possible leaving it to them to dual it out.

Even when she wasn't in the lead bike group, she didn't take any pulls to catch up though. She relied entirely on Norden and co.
It was almost as if she knew others would burn themselves out to catch the lead group.

No the key point was she knew they would catch - that is all that was important for her. If she knew they would catch, regardless of what the others do to get there....its game over as far as Gwen is concerned at the moment.

That's ridiculous. She is as complete athlete as any of them, she just knows her strengths and races to those. if you think riding at the back of that first group that came into t2 was easy, you need to go look at some ITU power files.

If those fast cycling girls don't pull Gwen back, they don't get to compete for the win either...

and yeah, it was pretty obvious to anyone watching that Gwen wasn't running her hardest, but (even more obviously) that's a really good thing.

I think a dynamic that is overlooked is that this season there are 10 WTS races, even with the inclusion of a number of Sprint races this is a little execessive. Apart from the WTS Grand Final and the Rio Test event many athletes will go into the race not on a full race-taper.

Gomez likes to race A LOT! When it comes to the business end of the season he will be firing. In the same vein a lot of people will be targeting decent results to ensure starts for their federations early olympic selection races (Rio and Chicago for many, Australia included) that's when they will be firing.

On a personal note it was a real shame to see Ron Darmon crash badly and injure himself, he's in my squad and a real shot at an olympic spot for Isreal (with top 10s at Mooloolaba and New Plymouth). Speedy recovery.

In regards to Mola's run, it appeared like Blummenfeld and Mola were doing almost all of the work in that second bike pack, lots of passengers!!

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It'd be interesting to see how she'd do in a non drafting race, where she couldn't suck wheel for 40k.

don't think it is as simple as that. there is a level of fitness required that gets you in that group.

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Obviously she is a tremendous athlete. She's a decent swimmer, a world class runner and not a bad cyclist by any means. Just not in the same class as true complete tri legends like Gomez and the Brownlees. In my humble opinion of course.
Having said that I can't see anyone beating her in the current field. None of the elite female swimmers seem to have the bike talent to keep the pack at bay.

 
You may as well say I'd be interested to see how she'd go in a game of soccer?

She races draft legal, she does it well, and makes more coin currently than any other draft legal female.

Are there even any non-draft races left at the Olympic distance.....didn't they all fold? (I'm being sarcastic that last bit...please don't answer it)

Ah, good point about the puncture. It's been so long since either of them have had a mechanical that I forgot that aspect. Now I do remember when Alistair got a flat in Ponteverdre (?) one year and had some help getting back to the front (and the win!) It will be interesting to watch Graves and see if the swim improves. Thanks for the updates on Alistair and what goes on in Leeds.....I was disappointed to not see his name on the start list for Cape Town......

Great win for Jonny! Good to see him back on the top of the podium - he looked really strong and motivated all day.

She races draft legal triathlon. She has won 7 WTS in a row. She is a complete triathlete because she wins triathlons.

I'm not sure if it is because they don't have the bike skills, or if it's because they are scared to commit to the cause and work together to keep away from everyone. I know Norden had a lot to do with the groups coming together in Auckland, but I saw a front group that was disorganized and completely unwilling to risk blowing up for a shot at the win. It is possible that True and Zaferes were intentionally slowing the group down to allow Gwen to stay close, but I would have expected someone in that lead group to take a chance for the win. Contrasting that with the men's race, I saw a group of guys working their balls off at the front trying to keep Mola behind them. And almost everyone in the front group was rewarded for it, we even got an American in the top 10!

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if I'm the US coach that's my strategy EVERY time. Girls who make the lead group do NO work. Get yelled at by the other girls? All they have to say is "I'm under no obligation to work, our yellow jersey is back in the peloton". Meanwhile back in the peloton Gwen can be all like "I'm under no obligation to work, because I have two teammates in the break, and also I'm the best runner to boot."

But as we get closer to Olympic qualification time, personal goals outweigh the team goals, and this goes away. Especially for the men.

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Yeah you could be right. Whether it was lack of talent or deliberate tactics to give Gwen the race, it made for a pretty uninspiring contest.

The men's race was the complete opposite. Gomez and Jonny charging at the front and helping to drag that lead pack along, before a final showdown on the run. Awesome. Just like always with those guys and Alistair when he's fit.

I really don't think there are any team goals (National teams) right now either.

Maybe courtesy but no goal or obligation.

I think she gave notice in this race. She hung onto that lead group while other girls were dropping off. Not sure she could have done that last year. Only getting better on the bike! That should be a scary thought...

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Lansing Triathlon Team

I doubt they are doing anything like that to help Gwen. I just do not think it is that much of a team sport. Especially for both of them, I mean Sarah True was second in the championship last year to Gwen, I am sure she would rather have those places switched. Zaferes now has finished second, both times to Gwen. I think both of them are doing everything for themselves to win.

Seriously, can you imagine being one of the people pushing the pace looking back and seeing people be spit out the back, but Jorgensen staying stuck.

There's a 0% chance that True and Zafares decided to soft pedal to let Gwen catch up. They had every incentive to keep her as far back as possible but failed in that mission.

Can you please stop embarrassing yourself by knocking Gwen because you personally don't think that she is as "complete" as some men who appear to be more "complete" to you? Could you find a more meaningless criteria by which to judge ITU triathletes? The goal is to win the race -- NOT to be the most "complete" (whatever that means) athlete in the eyes of random age groupers. Characterizing her as a "decent" swimmer and "not a bad" cyclist is simply laughable. Do you have any idea how hard it was to stay with the lead group on that course and still be able to run the way she did?. She did it with the 4th fastest bike split too! What do you call the women with the 10th or 15th fastest bike splits? Mere hacks? There is no way she could have ridden like that on that course last year. Notice was served to the rest of the women that Gwen is in even better shape than last year.

She knows her strengths and knows how best to maximize them. Despite your deepest wishes, taking big pulls on the bike would probably be the single most stupid thing she could do in a draft legal ITU race.

Certainly a lot easier if you are the only one not putting you nose in the wind for 40k.
Brownlee on the other hand puts it all out there on the bike and still posts the fastest run. Gomez too although he couldn't quite match JB this time. Those two would never contemplate a 40k wheel suck.
I don't mean to knock her particularly. It's just all this Gwensanity nonsense and hype I find OTT, but hey whatever floats ya boat.

He's not embarrassing himself. What he says is correct.

The 'complete' triathlete would be in the lead bunch in the swim - Gwen never is - would also be able to take turns pulling the train along - Gwen never does. She had a fast bike split because she got dragged across the gap by Norden. She is of course the best runner without a doubt. But then again she's almost certainly the freshest as by any measure she doesn't do a lot of work on the bike. And whilst the front girls would be pushing big watts, she gets to save what? 30% or so by sitting.

This works for her right now as the other girls aren't smashing the bike together and so making it even harder to bridge that gap which will always be there simply because they swim better.

The above isn't knocking America's new Tri sweetheart, it's just telling it like it is.

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Gwen is fairly similar to Mola. Granted Mola has to come off the front pack into T2 to challenge and Gwen can probably start 60 seconds down, but neither, if it's an Olympic, is likely to be front pack coming out of the swim and neither is able to lead the chasing pack on the bike.

When people talk about being 'complete' they refer to dominating the bike pack, keeping the chain going and taking massive turns (in addition to swimming front pack and challenging on the run). Jorgenson and Mola don't, and can't do that.

For Gwen that's fine because she doesn't have the equivalent of AB,JB and JG to worry about (Non Stanford could potentially threaten).

In terms of Rio, assuming they are fully fit AB,JB and JG are pretty much guaranteed to finish in the top 6 (and probably higher). However Mola is either going to be in the top 3 or below 10th and Gwen is either going to be 1 or below 10th. Rio's hills could obliterate her if people get away on the swim.

I only saw a bit of the women's race but this year is all but over. Gwen was in the first pack and had a little dig into T2 to get an nice position. Unless there is a miracle you can't see she being challenged.

I was surprised how early some of the women started to get their feet out of their shoes.

JB and Gomez are very strong. I think we have to take Gomez at face value. That he has been a little ill but I'm sure will be firing on all pistons for the key races. Enough said on Mola once he has to work on the bike his run suffers. He will not be a factor on the Rio course unless his swim improves.

She wasn't it the first pack out of the water or on the bike - only got there as Norden pushed hard and pulled the second pack up.

I'm not saying she isn't an excellent triathlete as she clearly is - I'm saying that she isn't as complete an athlete as some others but because she runs so strongly she gets the job done which is the aim of the game.

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Ok thanks. Perhaps I should of known that before commenting!

Any idea what happen to Norden?

Mola can be blisteringly fast but never after a hard bike as we saw yesterday and last year. And as Rio 2016 is much tougher than Auckland (by my calculation, it has 80% more vertical climbing per lap), I don't think he has any chance of a top 3, or probably a top 10. As things stand, so long as the Brownlees and Gomez have their usual swim (and Varga is pretty much guaranteed to take it out very fast indeed) and unless the heat is unseasonably tropical, I'm struggling to think of anyone who has a chance for the podium. If the course was more like London 2012, then things would be potentially far more open and Mola might be in with a shout (as could Murray) but the non-wetsuit ocean swim and 92 meters of vertical ascent within the first 3K of the bike will make a brutal selection. I wouldn't even be surprised to see the Brownlees and Gomez reaching T2 a minute or more ahead of anyone else.

I think the women could learn from watching professional road racing. If Gwen is in the second pack, as she was yesterday, make her do the chasing! Drop behind her and make her lead. I find the passivity of the other women frustrating sometimes because they know they can't beat her on the run and yet play into her hands time and again. The only time she has ever been outsplit was by Non Stanford in Madrid 2013 after having to ride the Madrid hill at her own pace.

She pulled out early in the run. Not sure why - commentators suggested an injury.

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exactly this!!

I can't believe they just let her sit there for so long. Irony blame her as that's exsctly the right tactic, but those girls are dumb. Girls like Andrea Hewitt must be spewing knowing she's in the first group out of the swim and ahead of Gwen but that Gwen will be brought back up by stupid tactics from the other girls. None of them can run faster than her everything else being equal - so make it unequal!!

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This year, that has been no Helen Jenkins, Non Stanford, Vicky Holland and yesterday, no Jodie Stimpson either. Nicola Spirig is also absent, as was Emma Jackson. Gwen Jorgenen is clearly a better runner than all of these people but a race with them in it would make for more intelligent pack racing. At Cape Town last year, Helen J, Jodie and Vicky H combined with Lucy Hall to ensure the front pack stayed away, which is why Gwen only came 3rd, so it can be done. But yesterday's front pack was very disappointing.

In the women's races, there are people like Carolina Routier who take a great pride in winning the swim and seem to be content with the television time it brings, rather than racing (the big exception is Lucy Hall who really is a powerful cyclist...)

Actually Gwen came out of the water on Andrea's feet just one second down so they both started in the second pack. While so many seem to be grumbling about Gwen "sucking wheel" if you watch carefully she spends most of her time either with a large gap back or displaced way to the side of anyone ahead of her getting way less benefit from draft than her position within the group would imply. After watching her climb in Auckland my feeling is that anyone thinking that the hills in Rio will shred her legs are in for a rude awakening. Keep in mind she is one of the least experienced gals at the front of this field. Andrea Hewitt, Emma Moffatt and most of the other top girls have been in the sport most of their lives while Gwen just started triathlon in 2010. Her future looks so bright.

Hugh

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I'd second this. Saying Gwen isn't the "complete" triathlete isn't criticizing her, it's just an observation of fact. She's clearly a very very talented athlete, but she simply isn't the "complete" triathlete, yet.

Look at it this way, I would say that the Brownlees and Gomez are complete triathletes. If you took the entire ITU field and ran a 1500m swim, they would be in the top 5, if you ran a 40K time trial, they would be in the top 5, and if you ran a 10K road race, they would be in the top 5. Where as compared to Gwen, she would be in the top 20 on the swim, top 20 on the bike, but would win the 10K road race by minutes.

Again, this isn't criticism or having go at her, it's just an observation of where her talents lie (relative to her competitors) across the three disciplines.

You seem to be forgetting that they aren't under team orders. If you have a strong biker, or two, in the 2nd pack then they are racing for themselves and will try to bike up to the lead group. However, you are also correct that the lead pack rarely seems, unlike the men, to work together and stay away. Generally speaking in my mind the women's racing is a lot more timid than the mens with more competitors sitting in the pack or hanging to race for 15th!

Who cares? That's like saying that you like the decathlete who comes in 5th place in the Olympics better than the one who won gold because the 10th place guy was top 10 in all 10 disciplines but the guy who won gold was first in 5 disciplines and 11th in the other 5 satisfying your fetish for "completeness". After supposedly watching Auckland this weekend and merely describing her as "not a bad cyclist" bike despite having the 4th fastest bike split, shows how biased you are. There were plenty of other women who not only weren't pulling but were getting dropped by the lead group. Moreover, she can swim with the lead group as she did in London last year when she was just 5 seconds behind Zafares coming out of the water and ahead of uber swimmers like True and Routier.

I get the feeling that some of the posters on here just started watching ITU races this year with Abu Dhabi based on how silly some of the comments have been.

Gwen is a superb athlete, however, she is vulnerable to defeat because she does not control the race. Her run is a level above all the other women and in 90% of races she will win due to being able to run 60 to 120 seconds faster than all the others over 10K. The problem is that the olympics will be a totally different race for three reasons: super hard bike course, team tactics (there was even speculation at the last olympics that there was cooperation between teams to try to defeat Alistair and Jonathan) and a smaller field. Gwen relies on others to get her in a position to win, she is less likely to able to do this in the olympics. It is very likely that strong cyclists, on the Rio course, will be able to pull away from Gwen on the hills just like Graves did in the men's race in Aukland over the weekend. His mistake was that he went alone and he didn't tell any others what he was going to attempt and when. If Gwen is in a chasing pack and has to chase down any potential breakaway it will be a totally different race. Smaller fields mean that the swim and bike are far more likely to fragment into smaller groups and therefore you are less likely to be in a position to rely on others for assistance. The mens race in Aukland should be a massive wake up call to all ITU athletes, if you are a strong swimmer and you commit to cooperation and some work in the front group then you are far far more likely to get a top ten finish than is the peleton comes together.

Honestly they would probably have to put her 3 plus minutes down and then have the run of their lives to beat her now and even on a one day event on a hard bike course.

jaretj

You apparently, as you're getting quite bent out of shape over this.


Errr no it's not. Not even close. You do know that the three people I used in my example of "complete" triathletes are the current Olympic medal holders, as well as one being the current World Champ and the other two former World Champs right?

And what's with this "fetish for completeness"? All we've done is made the observation that Gwen, whilst a terrific athlete, is proportionally a lot stronger in one of the three disciplines. You're reacting as if we'd slagged her off saying she was rubbish and not fit to take the win or something.


You're the one coming out with the silly overreaction to a perfectly reasonable appraisal of Gwen's abilities in each of the disciplines.

I'm not having a go at Gwen. Why are you reacting as if I am?

Excellent post, Mr Monkey!

The Rio bike course is several degrees harder than anything seen in recent memory, so it is quite possible that it will favour a very different set of athletes than we expect.

After exiting T1, they ride for about 700K, then start a 0.7 K climb ascending 50 meters at an average of 7%. The second half has pitches of 10 to 20% (!). That is approximately the amount of climbing per lap as we get in Auckland. There is then a technical decent at 10-15%, followed by a second hill, and another 40 meters of climbing at 10-15%. As I said before, that is 80% more climbing per lap that Auckland or Madrid. After descending the second hill, there is then an out and back of about 2.5km along the shore. This is a custom made "Brownlee brother course", but I don't think it is a Gwen Jorgensen course. And in truth, I don't know who it would favour (possibly Jodie Stimpson, or Non Stanford).

Bro. Bruh. C'mon man!

Gwen is incredible. She dominates and continues to improve. She is a force.

She is not yet a complete triathlete like Gomez or the Brownlees. She doesn't swim comfortably front pack. Despite the split, she isn't the fourth best cyclist (yet?).

This is obviously semantics, but IMHO it isn't a moral flaw or anything. I'd argue that's Kienle isn't complete either in the way Van Lierde is. Still a fantastic athlete though!

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

If Gwen could win an OD triathlon from being three minutes down after the bike then it would reflect really badly on the credibility of the sport. I am always suspicious that if the women are more than 10% slower then the men then either the men are super fast or the women are not as fast as they have been in the past. Gwen's winning time this weekend was the slowest time in the last 3 years and Annie Haag's run time, in 2013, was faster than Gwen's time in 2015 and Jodie's run time in 2014 was only 70 seconds slower. The mens times over the 3 years are comparable although it is possible the distances and conditions were slightly different. I suspect Gwen shines so much because she is an excellent runner and because her current competition isn't as fast as it has been in the recent past.

Yes, I am aware that you just spread the accomplishments of the three people you used in your example over three years -- 2012, 2013 and 2014. How was A Brownlee's "completeness" last year in Edmonton? I could just as easily change my example to the reigning world champion in the decathlon who just came in 5th in the Olympics by coming in the top 10 in all 10 disciplines but losing to 4 guys who were top 3 in multiple disciplines but outside the top 10 in others. The goal is to win and maximize the chances of doing that by playing to your strengths -- not to impress internet posters with a completely irrelevant notion of "completeness".

Your comments are more reasonable but the ORB's are just downright ridiculous. It's not reasonable whatsoever to make idiotic comments like "It's just all this Gwensanity nonsense and hype" and then question how she would fare in a sport she doesn't compete in (non-draft Olympic). Hype is something like Dan and Dave before the '92 Olympics. Being almost unbeatable in a sport for over a year has nothing to do with "hype" and "nonsense". I do think that northern monkey's analysis is spot on, which is why Gwen hardly is a sure thing in Rio and what will make the race extremely interesting. She definitely is much more vulnerable in a non-wetsuit swim with a very hilly bike and team tactics being used against her. However, I don't think he is correct in thinking that the field will be a lot smaller in Rio. It might be a few bodies smaller than a typical ITU race but not enough to really make a difference.

I am always suspicious that if the women are more than 10% slower then the men then either the men are super fast or the women are not as fast as they have been in the past.//

And I'm always suspicious of comparing gender races where one is fought 100% to the line, and the other a done deal early into the run. Im guessing even though she continued to open her lead when she really did not have to, that there was still 30 to 60 seconds in there if it was a 100% run like the mens.


But I agree with everyone here talking about her weakness on hard bike courses, she will definitely need to do something about that before Rio. She has this incredible weapon right now because she is so much faster than anyone on the run, but the olympics seem to bring out the best in people and i expect everyones runs to step up a notch. I will go on record and say she will not win if 2 1/2 minutes down there, 2 will be hard to close after riding her legs off to limit losses. This is going to be a case where we absolutely should provide a domestic for her, maybe even two if we have them. It is the gold medal at stake here, not just some high placing in the olympics that means nothing to a country(athlete yes, but medals are what grow the sport)

I think for her to make up 3 minutes, she would have to run 33 low and 2nd would have to run 36 low. Yes, that would reflect poorly on the sport if the 2nd best woman only can run a 36+ 10K. Part of the problem is that so many of the top women are hurt/not racing (Norden, Non Stanford, Simpson, Spirig, Haug, Jenkins, etc). I think the dynamics of the races would change a lot if 2 or 3 of the aforementioned former top women started racing and racing healthy.

I do think that the run times were slower this year because the women rode harder than normal on the bike. Riding that course hard takes a serious toll on one's legs. Gwen certainly rode faster than she normally does, which probably explains her slowish time (also having a 90+ second cushion). However, as far as I could tell, it didn't look as windy as it has been in the past and I think the rain held off until the men's run. Compare that to the 2012 conditions at the GF.

The Rio field may not be that much smaller numerically but because of selection for the olympics ie to represent your country. So there will be fewer of the best athletes. So the quality of the top half is probably as good but the quality of the bottom half is less good than an ITU world series race. More groups, more fragmentation. Less potential help.

Do you want to tell Zafares and True that one or both has to domestique for Gwen? I don't think that would be a pleasant conversation. At this point, I think USA should be shooting for a podium sweep.

I agree but I think that's irrelevant to the dynamics of the front and the chase pack. The fact that there isn't a second big chase pack but rather a lot of fragmentation with the stragglers riding solo or in tiny groups will have no impact on the medal contenders (unless, of course, one of them somehow falls off the back of the chase pack and is in no-woman's land).

Everyone knows she can come back from 1:30 down and probably 2 minutes that is why I said 3 plus minutes ahead.

I suspect the women in the sport are under-performing on the run compared to the men. I think there will be a change in that soon.

I think she's on the level of running that Emma Snowsill was on.

jaretj

Mag900 you appear to have quite the emotional investment in the whole "Gwensanity" hysteria. That's fine, but there's no need to keep throwing insults, it just cheapens your opinion.

As several others have reaffirmed, saying she isn't as complete a triathlete as legends like Gomez or the Brownlees is pretty far from an insult. Who knows, if she keeps working on improving the bike and swim (to a lesser extent) maybe she will be right up there with the greats. Then again based on the current women's field she may never need to be.

The Rio course may not suit her current skills, but with the amount of top end US ITU talent available right now, she should get the best possible help to position her for success.

In the context of a "complete" triathlete, I'd argue only Gomez qualifies. Look at his resume: complete at the ITU level, Xterra World Champion, 70.3 Champion. If he pulls gold at Rio and chases down Kona there will be nothing left. Maybe niche races.

Regarding Gwen: wins are wins.

Do you want to tell Zafares and True that one or both has to domestique for Gwen? I don't think that would be a pleasant conversation. At this point, I think USA should be shooting for a podium sweep.//

Sure i would tell them that, but at this point not really sure they would be the domestiques. Could be others would be more qualified for that role. It is possible that we would have another medal hope, but i do not think it is either one of the two you mentioned. In that case, that person would still work for Gwen, but in a more passive role. There are so many things an athlete can do to help someone out, included is getting in the lead group and not working, or even disrupting. If someone truly has a medal chance, then they better be able to win it on the run on our team. Any scenario where our team is helping the lead bike group is just unacceptable when you have such a favorite for the gold, stupid in fact..

She didn't get dropped this time and many, many others did.

Her bike has improved. If it continues to improve her bike, it won't matter what the Rio course looks like.

Having said that, I expect uber bikers Norden and Spirig to be the ones to beat.

Zafares will be tough too.

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Team USA is going to have to make some difficult decisions. If all USA women triathletes work entirely for themselves then they could be partially responsible for denying Gwen a gold medal.

Team USA is going to have to make some difficult decisions. If all USA women triathletes work entirely for themselves then they could be partially responsible for denying Gwen a gold medal//

It is not difficult at all, you send the team with the best chance to win the gold medal. Anything else is just stupid. This is what they spend all their budgets on, winning medals. If they choose 3 individual athletes, then they should be fired..

I don't think it is that easy to sacrifice two possible medals for one probable. You have to factor in illness, nerves, punctures, crashes not to mention individual careers.

I agree. The US women right now are like Kenya in the steeple. I think it's more plausible to pay a woman from another country with no shot at medaling to domestique than to tell 2 other serious medal contenders that they can't contend. What happens when you leave those 2 at home for 2 domestiques and there's a crash or a flat (kind of London all over again)?

I don't think it is that easy to sacrifice two possible medals for one probable. You have to factor in illness, nerves, punctures, crashes not to mention individual careers. //

And just who are these other medal contenders? Now if between now and selection time someone shows they can beat complete fields consistently, then I think my passive domestique should be put in place for that athlete, while the 3rd as a true helper to both, but Gwen first.


Of course people can get sick, injured, etc., but you have to go with what you got at the time of selection, with maybe a few outside possibilities. I just do not see someone beating the entire world except for one(what it will take for a bronze if you factor in Gwen for the gold) on the team at the moment. Planning for anything else is planning for mediocracy.

Zafares is 2 for 2 this year beating the ENTIRE field not named Gwen. I think that's about as consistent as you can be! the 2 courses are about as different as you can get with one being hot and flat and the other being cold and hilly.

YOu are trying to say Auckland was a complete field? I don't mean the field that just happens to show up, but a field that has all the contenders. I think there is a Rio test race on the course isn't there, that would be a good time to see where the other ladies stack up, and if Gwen has closed any gaps on the bike..

Of course that wasn't a complete field but you can't ask any more of someone than to have beaten EVERYONE else who has shown up to the first 2 races. I agree that anyone with legit medal hopes will be in Rio and we will get a much better sense of how good the American women are there. We already know that Gwen has stepped up the bike because she never has been able to ride the 4th fastest bike split on a hard bike course until now. Hopefully in Rio we will see what happens when the women ride even harder on an even harder bike course.

It is a long season and most are aiming to peak in August/September. So I think the fields we are seeing now, as well as the relative strengths of athletes, is deceiving. Sarah True is currently a shadow of the athlete she was last year but then again, I suspect her goals are to be at her best then, not now. And with all due to respect to Katie Zaferes, I think her results flatter her. So your comparison with Kenyan steeplechasers is a bit exaggerated. On the other hand, if I was American, I'd probably be feeling very upbeat about things. On the other hand, I'd still say that Helen Jenkins, Jodie Stimpson, Non Stanford and Vicky Holland are, when fit, even better as a "crop" than the USA top women.

The trouble is, past form is not a good predictor of future form in women triathletes: Barbara Riveros, Paula Finlay, Emma Moffat etc. very variable.

Non Stanford on Jorgensen in a BBC 5live interview:

"what she's done is phenomenal, absolutely incredible at the minute and I think the million dollar question is how do you beat her? from watching some of the races I feel the girls are just giving up and handing the win. and it's very easy to say that watching from the sidelines but I think you have to look at her weaknesses and try and expose them a bit more"

"it's not a running race, it's a triathlon so you have to expose her earlier on in the race and that's the only way to do it. but all credit to her, she's still swimming and biking well too so at the minute so she's definitely the favourite"

she's back for Cape Town tentatively but aiming to peak for Rio

 
Lots of interesting points since I last chimed in. (Glad it seems we've put to bed the whole complete triathlete nonsense)

Two points;

- The Olympics is the Olympics :) Far too far out to talk favourites, it does something special to campaigns. Lots of time for a new 'favourite' yet, and lots of time for the current favourite to meet a roadblock or two.

- Monty you call it mediocrity to even consider sending the top 3 US girls (I think thats how you framed it? correct me if I've misread/misinterpreted you) and I agree. At the Olympics you put all your eggs in one basket for Gold. But I don't see that happening, far too political at that level. Ultimately it will come down to American culture - they'll take the top 3 girls.

Ultimately it will come down to American culture - they'll take the top 3 girls.//

I disagree, they cannot be that myopic. Of course I have been proven wrong again and again when it comes to USAT and their willingness to do the wrong thing. But in this case they have spent so much money and effort on getting a medal, and now they have the favorite position on the gold(as of this moment), that only morons would throw that away, or put it in jeopardy.


But like you say, it is far enough out right now that things will certainly change a bit. But barring something really bad happening to Gwen, she would have to be our odds on favorite for a medal. Others could usurp her, but they would be from other countries, not ours. Just not enough time for someone to come out of the woodwork and close the huge gap she has on all our girls. Others in the world are a lot better, and I would guess they will form teams just to have a chance to beat Gwen. And I can even see many countries forming alliances against her too, it would be the smart thing to do. So if we just leave her out there all alone to burn alone, well then we will get what we deserve i guess.

I agree. USAT didn't add the domestique section to the qualification process just for kicks. It's very seriously on the table.

I looked quickly for open 1ok times. For gwen I found about 32:20. For Non Stanford 32:40.
So maybenot quite able to give up 3 minutes to everybody?

Correct me if I'm wrong but don't the athletes qualify for the Olympics during the ITU circuit, so it's not like the U.S. can send anyone to be a domestique, they have send athletes who've qualified.

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Federations set their own qualification criteria.

So in effect what you could have is a country such as the US with some really great athletes, say 3 in the top 20 of the world, so they qualify the country 3 slots at the Olympics. But then the federation gets to decide (via their own previously determined qualification criteria) who gets those 3 slots.

What is the longest (number of seasons) a woman has dominated ITU for? At which stage in the typical cycle will Gwen be for Rio?

With the global rule that anyone in the Olympics has to be ranked in the top 140 in the world.

I think Zafares has looked really impressive physiologically so far. In Abu dabi she made a late jump to the break away out of the front group. She then got popped off of that group (unable to hold speed through the winding course?) but still had enough left to out run all the other front pack bike girls. In Auckland she was frequently seen at the front of the bike and again ran well. Compare this to somebody like True who tended to hide a little more (tactics or tired?) and still didn't have the run speed.

I personally think we haven't seen this sort of dominance before in the women's.

If we're looking at the WTS/WCS years then certainly not.

Even if we look at the World Cup era, certainly Snowsill and Fernandes were dominant when they raced, but with more races per season they could avoid each other in all but the big events like Worlds / Olympic / Hamburg / Ishigaki etc, there were a lot more opportunities to be dominant against the field assembled.

But you'd have to agree most fields are now A class in the era of the WTS.

Not particularly relevant (as prior to Olympics anyway) but you'd be hard pressed to argue that Gwen is more 'dominant' just yet than Emma Carney, 94 - 98 beaten 3 times?! If you're looking for your 'complete athlete' (And that isn't a term I particularly like in the new WTS context :




But I think the demands on the athletes in the current context are far more, the pressure is higher, the competition is higher, and with that comes the risk of things going wrong so I don't think we can look at Emma's domination and draw any valuable conclusions?

What are your thoughts Mr B?

The other thing to consider is that the reported hills of Rio may favour lean rather than buoyant.

Also, the Olympics is a once in a lifetime event and the pressures are huge. Some people can enjoy being the favourite (Alistair Brownlee springs to mind, Emma Snowsill), others crumble under the pressure (Lessing, Gomez in 2008?). Some step up their game (Whitfield, even the young Brownlee in 2008, Frodeno). Others freeze. And it is not a given that Gwen will be able to race with the effortlessness we see on the flat dull courses of the world series.

One prediction though: Gwen will win in Australia by a huge margin. It is a flat, totally uninspiring course...

My thought is that if Gwen is still one of the major contenders by Rio then the most amazing thing will be, not her speed, but her durability.
3, maybe 4 years seems to be the max for being a dominant female, regardless of the style of racing at the time. Particularly for an athlete that relies on the run as that usually means having one of the lowest BF%.

Also that in the last couple of years there is a massive difference in the early season womens racing vs the last few races. Whereas the boys are BAU. So race tactics will change as the field strengthens.

Talking about durability, Javier Gomez is remarkable, one of the oldest in the field, he races more frequently than almost anyone else, in many different formats and has been the outstanding athlete over the last 10 years. Possibly helped by pure talent and enforced delay in starting to race due to heart issues? His physical and mental toughness is amazing. Hats off to the bloke. p.s. FeketeBlob Gomez had achilles issues at the 2008 olympics, not sure you can speculate he bottled it.

Perhaps I was being unfair to Gomez. But he was sufficient fit to be in the top 4 with the finish line approaching.

The real issue with the men is, can Alistair Brownlee line up at Rio fully fit? If yes, then I think he is unbeatable on that course. But the odds are probably against him.

And will Gwen avoid injury for the next 16 months?

Do you say odds are against him because of durability issues with the short course training? He seems pretty hard to stop when preparing for one race...especially if the bike is as tough as you're indicating. I just hope we see him healthy. Then let him have a crack at the longer stuff!

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

The last time Alistair looked good on the run was San DIego 2013. He then picked up an achilles issue and did only two run training sessions the rest of the year. He broke down completely in London and spent a month in a boot! He was not run fit in 2014 until June, ran reasonably well at the Commonwealtlh Games, only to get injured again before Edmonton .. When you add to that the stress fracture that spoiled 2010, other issues in early 2011 and the Achilles injury in 2012 (and after the Olympics, he then got appendicitis and couldn't run), I would say that the odds are stacked against him being totally run fit in Rio. On the other hand, he has proven he can win by being bold on the bike (Stockholm 2013, Edmonton 2014).

So far, he has managed to be fit when it matters. And hopefully, he will be again for Rio. But as I say, I think it is less than 50-50...

AB seems to be his own worst enemy. I suspect he trains too hard and too much. When on form, and especially on a hilly course, is only racing himself. However, he is Olympic Champion and my best result was 2nd in a local sprint!

Did you hear JB say he was riding 20 hours a week during his interview?

Any idea of how much swimming and running?

jaretj

I can't talk about volume but a chap that trains with us used to train on the same track as their group. The AB/JB track run sessions are old school full out sessions!

You can only get appendix once and his timing was impeccable. Didn't he win Edmonton ?

Yes, he won Edmonton but had to engineer a 90 second lead himself (and that is why I love watching him! He does what has to be done).

In terms of how much they train, they do 17 to 20 hours a week on the bike (but that is mostly with their training group of friends, plus a crazy chain gang on Thursday evenings in the main season). They have five swim sessions a week (about eight hours), and also about eight to nine hours of running (including two really hard track sessions), as well as two hours of strength and conditioning.

I remember Kitzbuhl 2013 being tougher - it was one long hill over 10% average, hitting 20% at times. The transition was so steep AB almost fell off the bike trying to get out of his shoes.

AB won, but Mola rode through the field to come second - I think he's underestimated on hilly courses.

Yes, Kitzbuhel 2013 was tougher in the sense it was a pure climb at altitude that favoured lighter guys (like Mola). Rio is tougher in that it combines relatively short very steep bursts of climbing, interspersed with a tricky technical descent, plus long flats favouring the rouleurs (more like a Belgian classic race). So it is a much broader test of endurance and bike skills. Mola proved he can climb well up a steep slope but RIo is a very different challenge. And Mola had his legs shredded last and this at Auckland, and he wasn't even in the front pack in either race.

But he was "allowed" to get that lead as he couldn't win the series, even if all the other contenders crashed out. I can't remember the exact permutations, but it was something like only JB, Gomez and Mola could win the series with Gomez having the advantage, and JB or Mola needed to beat him by about 3 places to take the series, so he just marked the pair of them and was happy to let AB ride off the front for the win.

Stockholm was a better example, when he shot off the front as he knew he didn't have the legs for the run. That time he was only "allowed" to go in the sense that no one was able to cover the attack.

And in Edmonton, there was another 60 guys who couldn't win the series and perhaps could have been "allowed to get the lead." But he dared and won. They didn't.

Stockholm was interesting because although he thought he didn't have the legs for the run, only Gomez was faster and only by about 5 seconds... Even Murray who came from nowhere in the second chace group was 35 seconds slower...

Worth noting that AB's current injury is the result of bad luck rather than overtraining or overuse - he put his foot in a pothole during a run session and twisted his ankle.

Whenever he races he adds some magic

Anyone any idea why that Norwegian bloke ( Blummenfeldt ), worked so hard to try to chase the front group? At best he wrecked his legs so that everyone he towed for ten 10k could out run him and push him even further down the overall results (34th). Is he paid by someone, is he just not thinking or is he over excited by being in the race?

Work hard if the group shares the work otherwise why bother?

AB was jumping out of the way of a dog wasn't he? Jesus imagine the run up to the Olympics.

Blummenfelt's a young dude, got 3rd in New Plymouth so can obviously put a run together. Heard a rumour he was doing some training with the Brownlees or am I mistaken?

This is a bit off the current topic, but does anyone know what the rules are when you are lapped on the run? Rewatching the men's race, there were 2 lapped runners (1 German, 1 Israel) who, when lapped, immediately got right behind Jonny and stayed on his heels. Seems like an easy way to affect the outcome of a race by clipping the leader's heels.

Yonah got DQ'd but the other guy who running like a crackhead chasing a rider up a mountain stage of the tour de France wasn't and finished ten minutes after Brownlee.

Just had a look and he's pretty experienced. Should definitely be a case of gtfo of the way or immediate DQ.

the Israeli guy got dqed I think.

oops didn't see the post just above before replying.

Could be interesting on a course like Rio if a nation like Switzerland would try to qualify a Daniela Ryf to help Nicola on the bike. Imagine what damage those two could do to Gwen on a tough bike course like Rio!

Will be tough to qualify anybody else but Nicola, though, they are in a big hole (behind Sven and Nicola) and may end up with only one spot for men and women??

That has crossed my mind on numerous occasions. Who knows what Brett is planning, but it would really add to the dynamic of the race.

You're not lapped out, but intentionally running with somebody a lap up is a penalty. Yonah from ISR got DQed, and the tall German probably should have as well. Everybody else stayed pretty much out of the way.
In the women's race, as Zaferes went through a bit of a rough patch and Kasper passed her back, I suppose that was ok. Just tough because even the athletes running a lap down are fast as hell, possibly just had crappy swims and shelled out on the bike. Auckland is the worst example of all the lapped runners because of the bike course.

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IG: idking90

anyone know why zafares got dqed last year?

Yes, I agree, you're right. It will be a lot tougher for him. Kitzbuhl was a bit of an anomoly.

I thought she crashed. Or was that Yokahama? Somewhere early she had a nasty one.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

London was where Katie Z crashed hard I think.
Auckland she finished the race, but was DQed for unbuckling her helmet too early. It looks in the 2015 rules like that was changed (highlighted green) to be a time penalty only if it happens in T2. At any other time, it's a DQ, which I believe is what it was last year.

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IG: idking90