GC Contador, Green for Sagan, KOM for Ten Dam. But as usual more interested to see my cousin have a great race working for the team and try to race for a stage win at some point.

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_____________________
Don't forget to attack!

Hope Garmin can pull something special. I'd love to see them dominate again. (and knock down team sky!)

I hate to say it, but for some reason I feel myself rooting for Contador because I don't like Sky/Froome, and who else is there?

well, there is a cobbled stage this year ;)

ditto. though not rooting for either, but i dislike Froome more

If Froome gets through the first week within a minute of his rivals, he wins.

I don't read too much into the Duaphine results, simply because Froome was put off his game by the crash. Yes, it indicated the AC was back in form, but I don't think he can match Froome in the mountains.

I had hopes for Nobali earlier this year, but he seems to be missing that extra something to stay up front.

I also hope I am wrong about all of the above.

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

GC: Froome. Sky is just too strong and Froome looked strong in Romandie and the Dauphine (at least before he crashed). Contador & Tinkoff will make it interesting but Porte and Kiryienka will crush the group in week 3, as usual. I predict Nibali is going to be a hell of a lot stronger than he's shown so far this year but will crack at least once.
Green: Kittel. He looked dominant before he got sick in the Giro and Giant's train is likely the strongest. Cav is missing some key members and Sagan doesn't really have a train. Put Sagan on a team with a reasonable train and he'd wipe the floor.
KOM: I have no idea, perhaps Mollema. He looked very good in Suisse and is due for a big performance in a Grand Tour.
White: Bardet. Very strong spring and AG2R looks tough this year. I'm really enjoying the rebirth of French cycling recently, they're pretty much the only teams I trust (outside of Garmin).

Dark horse: Talansky. The Dauphine wasn't a fluke, the guy's a genuine threat. He can climb and TT with the best of them and Garmin is sending a strong team. Also, the Garmin DSs are smart and have the ability to cause chaos. I wouldn't be surprised to see Talansky podium.

Overall, I think we're in for the best Tour in years. Certainly better than the last two Sky snore-fests.

I think Froome will win, but I'd like to see a closer race. Contador might be able to stay close, but Nibali doesn't seem to have it this year.

Sagan for the green jersey, but he might not win a single stage.

Shot in the dark pick for the polka dot jersey would be Joaquim Rodriguez.

I have no idea on the white jersey.

TFR for the team competition. They won't have a shot as much else and they seem to fall back on this as a consolation prize.

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"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.

I am going to go with David Miller for the yellow.

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

http://pvcycling.wordpress.com/...st-tour-lineup-ever/


http://www.trekfactoryracing.com/...review-tour-climbers

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"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

I've gotten a little out of touch with the Tour cyclists. Why the dislike for Froome?

I'm kind of bummed Quintana is not in it this year. I thought he was fun to watch last year.

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Travis Rassat
Vector Cycle Works
Noblesville, IN
BikeFit Instructor | FMS | F.I.S.T. | IBFI
Toughman Triathlon Series Ambassador

   
GC: Froome will take it away from Contador on the ITT. I'm not thrilled about either one.
Green: Sagan (he won't dominate the sprint finishes but he'll take enough intermediate points throughout the tour)
KOM: Thibaut Pinot edges out Pierre Rolland
White: Michael Kwiatkowski (I'm expecting big things from him - maybe a top 5 overall)
Team: Omega Pharma-Quick Step will be the big surprise.

I expect Rui Costa, B. Maullema, V. Nibali, T. van Garderen, Rafal Majka to finish somewhere in the top 10
with Porte, Valverde, Schleks, Talansky, Joaquim Rodríguez - all out of top 10

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Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's

I predict Froome will not win.

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

Start with this: http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showthread.php?t=22364

David Millar got dropped from the Garmin squad today

???

I am aware.

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

Agree.

And the most important thing is that THE JENS will be there!

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clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com

I asked the same question a few weeks ago and never got a response. I think it's:
- partly suspicion based on him making big improvements at a relatively late stage in his career (and drawing parallels between his parasitic disease and Armstrong's cancer)
- partly dislike of anybody as dominant as he was in 2013 on the basis that it's boring when the race turns into a procession
- partly a perception that he's got no charisma
- partly just general dislike of Sky. Even at the best of times people are going to root for the underdog against the team with the biggest budget and strongest squad. When the last team to dominate like that was US Postal/Discovery, that's doubly the case

I'm just hedging my bets!
I meant to leave him out of the top 10.

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Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's

Of course all of this is debatable, but:

Because he's the archetypal watts-watching, defensive, hide behind your domestiques for as long as possible, logical rider that typifies the lack of panache in the modern peloton and personifies the boa constrictor-like Sky tactics.

Because he's stand-offish, somewhat prickly and a bit of a jerk.

Because he supplanted Wiggins, a guy who's also extremely dry, professional and taciturn but still managed to seem fascinating when compared to Froome.

Because of his TUE and inhaler suspiciousness.

Because his chicken-like, flailing, elbow n' knees, staring at his computer riding style is the ugliest I've ever seen.

Because he's not British, at all, but has a Union Jack on his bike.

Plus, all he does is look at stems: http://chrisfroomelookingatstems.tumblr.com/

I think The Jens will lead a solo breakway from Leeds right into Harrogate for a stage win.

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Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's

Also people are xenophobic against alien life forms:

Yellow: Horner hasn't raced all year so that makes him the odds-on favorite. Should he falter, I'm going with Contador. Between him, Nibali, Purito and Valverde, I don't think Sky will be able to ride tempo to another win. Would love to see Talansky get a top 5.

Green: Sagan. This is probably the easiest pick, baring something unfortunate happening.

White: Michael Kwiatkowski. With his classics chops the first week shouldn't be anything for him.

Mountain classification: Probably the toughest to pick, maybe Romaine Bardet

That. Is. Hilarious!

I found myself rooting for Contador, for the first time ever, at the Dauphine. And then he did that awful pistolero gesture and I went back to hating him. At least he animates the races, unlike the stem looker.

That is a funny link there!

I don't think OPQS is missing anyone from their train:Martin > Terpstra > Petacchi > Renshaw > Cav, with Kwiatkowski as another capable hand as he showed on one-days. No other team is even close to as strong or experienced.

Sagan will never "wipe the floor" against Cav and Kittel in a pure field sprint. On an incline maybe, and certainly out of a select group, but not a traditional Tour sprint stage. He's also a freelancer, not really suited to a train like those guys. He'll take green because of consistency and versatility.

OK I'll play along .....

GC: Not Froome. And Brailsford will look like a huge Douche for not including Wiggo
Not Dopador - Unless he eats more tainted Beef.

Now for some likely suspects. It might be a more open Tour this year than last years edition.
Rui Costa
Valverde

Polka Dot Jersey - Same as above

Green Jersey - Anyone but Sagan. Not because I dislike Sagan. But because of the endless Jock Sniffing from all the talking heads

Note: These aren't predictions. But I sure *hope* this is the result :)

Who is your cousin?

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Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's

May I ask who your cousin is? And the KOM is incredibly difficult to predict, otherwise I'd chime in with my own predictions.

Excellent, I'm sure this is not sarcasm and you have dropped that notion of having to get into race fitness =)

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

Sep Vanmarcke I think...if I recall correctly from the Spring classics thread. Hope I didn't screw that up Cobble!

Mrs BBS and I will be there for Stages 16/17 and the ITT. Will try to get some good pics.

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-----------------------------------------------------------------
Founder: BestBikeSplit
Amazonian

No Boonen, no Steegmans. Petacchi and Renshaw are both a little past their sell-by date. Giant has a more flexible and stronger train and a better sprint alternate in Degenkolb. They have more options. Also, given the way Kittel was looking this spring, I think he's going to be tough for anyone to beat.

We agree. I wasn't talking about a particular field sprint, I'm talking about the green jersey. My point is that Sagan already wins green jerseys even though he doesn't have a sprint train of note and is forced to freelance. Like you said, he wins through consistency, his ability to climb (relative to pure sprinters) and his absurdly awesome freelancing skills. If he did have a train like OPQS or Giant, he would most definitely be in the mix against true sprinters more often. This, combined with his ability to take intermediate points would only increase his advantages and allow him to wipe the floor with dedicated sprinters in a green jersey competition.

Renshaw is past his sell-date at 31? FYI, Boonen and Steegmans are both 33. Boonen hasn't been in Cav's train this year and wouldn't be the last man, which is the most critical cog for someone like Cav. Boonen's role is much more easily replaced.

Sagan could have the best train in the peloton and still won't beat Cav or Kittlel. He doesn't have the snap or pure speed those guys do.

Sep Vanmarcke (team Belkin)

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_____________________
Don't forget to attack!

agree the KOM is always difficult to predict, it often goes to somebody who goes on the attack frequently but is just not good enough for the GC win due to lack of time trialing capabilities. So i am sticking with Ten Dam since he is more of an attacker than Mollema and both have been riding very well this season. There's also a bit of pressure on them now they need a new team sponsor.

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_____________________
Don't forget to attack!

BLeP wrote:

I am going to go with David Miller for the yellow.

https://twitter.com/millarmind/status/483690684571197440


"For Sale. Been raced, not much. Battery fully charged (I think). Good condition. Reasonable offers please. "

Let's hope his team can find a new sponsor for next year too.

Off topic. Think there will be a spanish armada working against Froome. Especially with Kruzieger off the team will Contrador get help with teaming up with Valverde,Movistar and possibly even Nibali to try to unseat Froome in the forst week? What you thinks?

Best quote from Jens after the Tour of California- "I was attacked by 100 riders. 50 guys were told don't let Jens go, and the other 50 were told, if Jens goes, you go".

Pure Jens gold

My heart is with Horner. My intelligent guest mixed with hope is Tallansky. This could be a really fun year.

Mind blown.

Could be, certainly looked that way at the Vuelta in 2012.

Seems that Dave M and the Garmin DS's (Vaughters & Wegelius) are at odds on this. Millar saying he is shattered, the managers saying he is sick......I've always liked Millars riding would have thought he'd make the ideal road captain for Talansky as a tour sign-off but I"m not close enough to really know what is going on. Lets see what unfolds.

he is such a whiner... pfffff

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The entire event (IM) is like "death by 1000 cuts" and the best race is minimizing all those cuts and losing less blood than the other guy. - Dev

Is there a slowtwitch league on velogames??

I have watched about 90% of all races this year, so here is my prediction based on what I have seen this year.
Like always we will lose one GC contender in the first week due to crashes
Someone will turn up a positive on a dope test and be forced not to finish/resign

Here are my top 10 GC
1. Nibali
2. Froome
3. Contador
4. Talansky
5. Kwiatkowski- would be higher, looks like he has not recovered from the Spring
6. Rui Costa
7. Valverde
8. Van Garderen
9. Rolland
10. Mollema or Van Den Broeck
Outsiders- Frank Schleck, Fulsang, Leopold Konig, Chavanel, Pineau, Zubeldia, Taaramae, Navarro

Green jersey- Sagan will win Cobble stage and another hilly stage like stage 7 and pull ahead
Polka Dot Jersey- Horner, Leopold Konig, Purito, Rolland
Young riders- Does Talansky still qualify, if not then Kwiatkowski
Team- Astana

I finally think it will not be a Sky show this year- watch out for Leopold Konig in his first Tour- I should have him higher in the top 10
I know I am missing someone, but I will stick with this list

I like Koenig a lot and hope he can get into the top 10 and/or win a stage. For some reason I don't think TVG will get into the top 10, he did have some hip issue as well. Fifth for Kwiatkowski also seems a bit too high for me although he does have that long TT at the end. Other than that I'll be hoping Rolland does well as he really won me over at the Giro. Will be a great tour and I'm really looking forward to that cobbled stage. And just for the record it's Pinot*.

You guys aren't getting it. Yes, I agree, Sagan (likely) can't hang with these guys in a pure 2 up or 3 up field sprint. Granted. I get it, I agree. You're right. Correct. Yup. Got it.

However, as I've repeatedly said at this point, this is precisely not what I've talking about. I'm talking about the green jersey, not a field sprint. Green jersey. You see, Sagan has ALREADY won green at the Tour. Twice in fact. Giving him a train, as is likely next year, is only going to help him finish higher in group sprints. This will only increase the chances that he holds onto green. It will only make him more dominant. In the points competition, not in field sprinting. Again, field sprinting is not what I'm talking about.

I can't say it again. Please don't make me say it again.

He's won quite a few more points classifications than just Le Tour, btw.

His typical finish is 3rd-5th in a field sprint. Cav wins by timing coming off a wheel. Kittel wins by coming off a wheel with pure power and speed. Sagan gets 3-5 because he follows the wheels of those guys to the line, knowing he won't come around them. Put the best train in front of him and he'll still get 3-5.

So in GROUP SPRINTS, it won't significantly improve the points he gets for o/a GREEN JERSEY.

I'm really, really looking forward to the Cav/Kittel/Greipel battle. I think Sagan will walk away with the green jersey because all 3 of those guys will be going all out for stage wins and not worrying too much about the intermediate sprints. Kittel was very impressive last year, but I don't think Cav was on top form - maybe a little tired from winning the points jersey at the Giro, plus his train was still relatively new. This year he skipped the Giro and has come out and said he's focusing everything on the Tour. If all 3 of them get their trains going there should be some absolutely cracking sprint finishes.

Pharmstrong 2014!!

But really Talansky is my hopeful, Contador is my real pick. While I know not to read in the buildup race results, Sky does not have the strong team it has had in the previous two years. With Contador, Nibali and Talansky all with strong teams, it will for sure be a more intertaining race this year. Even if Sky and Froome do come out on top. My team choice will be Garmin purely because I like them.

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Robert Dao
ATC Racing - Austin, TX
Gold's Gym Triathlon Coach
@speedao1
@daotraining

Hope you're right re it being a more entertaining race. The only TT being on the penultimate stage is a great move. Nobody is going to want to be going into that TT with too much to do, so there should be a lot of moves in the mountains. Sky definitely don't look as strong as the last 2 years, a lot of it for them is going to come down to whether Porte is back to form. Having 2 riders who can stay in that select group on the steepest climbs gives you a lot more options.

Looking forward to seeing what Geraint Thomas can do this year as well - very talented rider but it's never quite come together for him at the Tour. 2011 he was in the white jersey but blew his GC chances by waiting for Wiggins when he broke his collarbone. 2012 he skipped the Tour to go back to the track for the Olympics. 2013 he rode the whole race with a cracked pelvis. He's been talked about as a potential GT winner himself at some point, he needs to start showing it if so.

Surprised to see Millar left off the Garmin squad for the Tour. I figured that - with the Tour starting in Britain, this being his final year as a rider, and the fact that he is a part owner of the team (!) - they would throw him a bone.

I guess this means Garmin is dead serious about forming the best possible team of riders to support Talansky.

To be honest, I don't like watching cycling unless Ligget and Sherwin are the commentators.

You should try Daniel Lloyd. Ex pro, talks like a slowtwitcher. Throws out CdA, watts/kg all over the place.

Even is willing to call bullshit on popular myth and lore. It is great.

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

can't wait to see how many times Phil sees #7 riding in this years TDF.

Daniel Lloyd's fantastic. He was one of the Cervelo TestTeam riders to ride a (very) early S5 prototype, and one of the main reasons we've kept the rear brake on the seat stays.

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Damon Rinard
Engineering Manager,
CSG Road Engineering Department
Cannondale & GT Bicycles
(ex-Cervelo, ex-Trek, ex-Velomax, ex-Kestrel)

Along with Dan, the Aussie duo of Matt Keenan and Dave Mackenzie are my favourites. Lots of detail and knowledge as well as inside perspectives. Good humour too.
WRT Phil & Paul; they are pretty much an institution. Could do with an update to their vocab though: lets count "suitcase of courage", "head of affairs" and "These are professional bike riders" during July.

Surprised you're picking Nibali after watching all those races. He's been pretty anonymous, so you must believe he's been slowly pulling his form together. I'm not buying it, but I'd love for him to animate the race and prove me wrong.

Exactly why I am picking him.

Watching him last year in the Giro/Vuelta, he is a smart/aggressive rider.The focus will be on Froome/Contador. I think Nibali will gain every second he can. Plus I am not a fan of either Contador or Froome.

With one time trial, I would actually have Horner a lot higher if he was on the bike a little more.

I miss Sean Kelly/David Harmon on Eurosport- since I get to watch on my computer at work, Eurosport was my go to for races

I even would watch an online feed over Liggett/Sherman when at home. After hearing Kelly/Harmon, I cringe when I hear Liggett make a mistake.

I did appreciate Liggett/Sherman for when I first started to watch cycling and their "teaching" commentary, but now I can't stand it

Did you ever find a way to legally watch Dan's live commentary on the internets?

yes!
http://www.dishworld.com/

$10/month!

at least, they had him for Giro, dunno if they even have the tour haven't checked

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

For your viewing and drinking pleasure.

Separated at Birth?


Chris Froome & Dr. Sheldon Cooper

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Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's

i like tomorrow's stage, a real Liege-Bastogne-Liege like course

Looking at the starters, a lot of the super domestiques such as Intxausti, Kangert, Iglinsky, GvA, TJS, Navardauskas could do well. Then you have the likes of Albasini and Chavanel, who are on stage-hunting teams. This would be a great stage for Rui Costa and J-Rod, but it's doubtful they'd be given too much rope. Should be exciting, regardless.

I'm picking GvA, TJS, and Chavanel for the podium, with GvA driving home the caddy.

I don't think Greg Van Avermaet is as good as he was in the beginning of the season. At least, he didn't convince me last week during the Belgian national championship.

I think tomorrow will be a great stage for Sagan - he should still be there at the end and be able to take the win. And I'm also counting in Cancellara again who is definitely looking solid and ready to take a stage win.

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_____________________
Don't forget to attack!

Have to throw Valverde in the mix on that course, and if even Contador might have a go to test Sky. It will be a very difficult stage to control. But I'm sticking with Sagan.

Just me or was Sky mostly invisible by comparison to how Saxo (as GC contender) was right at the front and clustered as a team? Granted, Froome took care of biz but makes me wonder about next few stages.

if this were a one-day race, i'd definitely throw in Valverde. Typical LBL goes as follows: day long break, gets caught somewhere with 40km to go at La Redoubte, more fighting over Roche & Faucon, thins pack down to 20 or just a few. St Nicholas further narrows the selection. This thing has 6 climbs in the last 30 km, a few of which are St Nicholas/ Roche & Faucon steep.

The GC contenders could take the fight to Froome, and Valverde & Nibali would particularly be good on this type of terrain. Would be interesting to see how the GC teams play this.

Also, dark horse nods to Tony Gallopin and Luca Paolini, though i have no idea what their form will be like

I'm not sure why Saxo made that effort, except to ensure AC would not get caught out in a crash but the traffic was such a mess that you could have ridden in the cars and still not lost time. But they didn't know that. The roads are so tight it's tough to just drag someone up, I guess. I think tomorrow will be more strung out and he'll have guys around him.
I also think the much maligned Nibali, maybe Costa, and others will try to put some time in the bank tomorrow. With cobbles upcoming, times may matter more now in case of pave disaster later.

Bump. Great racing today.

Bikes of the ToF: http://road.cc/...bikes-tour-de-france
3 Spesh- Tinkoff saxo, OPQS & Astana
2 Canyon- Katusha & Movistar
2 Scott- Orica & IAM
1 Cervelo- Garmin Sharp
1 Cannondale- Cannondale
1 Ridley- Lotto Belisol
1 Merida- Lampre
1 Giant - G-S
1 Colagno- Europcar
1 Look- Cofidis
1 Focus- AG2R
1 Fuji- Net App
1 BMC-BMC
1 Trek- Trek
1 Pinarello- Sky
1 Bianchi- Belkin
1 LaPierre- FDJ
1 KEMA- B.S.E.

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res, non verba

"Sh!! happens. I was really unlucky. It wasn't even raining at the moment of the crash," he said, with his anger seemingly aimed at himself as much as the rider who went down in front of him.

That was some funny stuff. Unfortunately its also quite true.

I don't know who Trek expected to end in the top 10 GC...
As for a stage win - only Cancellara has a chance in the Stage 5 cobbles and the ITT. And both are long shots.

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Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's

Interested on views on cavendish vs kittel - assuming that cav hadn't gone out so early this year, seems like it would have been an epic battle in the 'true' sprint stages. Early days, but Kittel looks well set to keep on banking stage wins - can cav match him next year?

Great stage! I wish Andy Schleck was alive to see this!

Looking at rosters for stage 5 winner. Lots of guys can do the rocks. Pick one and only one. Cadillac car, bubbee.

My podium picks for stage 5 are:

1. Sep Vanmarcke
2. Spartacus
3. Kwiatkowski

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Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's

Uhhhhh....Cancellara is a long shot for those two stages?

OK, then.......

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

anyone else think the amount of crashes in the final sprints will disappear since Cavendish is out.

Every crash it seems either Cavendish or Farrar are involved.

Looks like the green jersey is locked up by stage 4?

Bikes of the ToF: http://road.cc/...bikes-tour-de-france
3 Spesh- Tinkoff saxo, OPQS & Astana
2 Canyon- Katusha & Movistar
2 Scott- Orica & IAM
1 Cervelo- Garmin Sharp
1 Cannondale- Cannondale
1 Ridley- Lotto Belisol
1 Merida- Lampre
1 Giant - G-S
1 Colagno- Europcar
1 Look- Cofidis
1 Focus- AG2R
1 Fuji- Net App
1 BMC-BMC
1 Trek- Trek
1 Pinarello- Sky
1 Bianchi- Belkin
1 LaPierre- FDJ
1 KEMA- B.S.E.


What value is this sponsorship? How influential is it to bike consumers? Have you bought a bike/brand it because it sponsors Team-X?

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Trek would probably say that they got a pretty good ROI for their sponsorship of teams over the years. I can think of one rider/team that is most likely responsible for 90% of Trek's growth

Terpstra, FC, Sagan, Sep, GvA, Kristoff--there are quite a few cobbled classics guys. Even worse for GC contenders is that none of those dudes are protecting leaders, and will go flat out like P-R.

Leaving aside the Trek outlier, many brands have profited immensely from sponsoring professional cycling teams......Cannondale may be the best example. They struggled to get a foothold in Europe in the 90's. NO one wanted big, fat aluminum American bikes in the land of Italian steel.

Then Cannondale sponsored the Saeco team.....and won the Giro d'Italia and Cipo won sprints in bunches. Cannondale hit the proverbial goldmine and sales skyrocketed.

Now, sponsoring a team does not mean automatic success, either (see Litespeed, GT et al), but when executed properly, it is an excellent investment (especially as it pertains to European sales).

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

I can think of one rider/team that is most likely responsible for 90% of Trek's growth

I recall being in Trek's largest and #1 dealer in the U.S. about a year after Lance Armstrong's first retirement. They told me that, Trek sales had dropped off a cliff!

At that level, I can see a bike sponsorship being highly influential, with great ROI - the after-effect with the ending of that relationship, is telling.

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Would you rank him as an odds-on favorite on either stage?

I think he's likely to be top 5 in either or both stages but not the favorite. Unlike 5 years ago, he's no longer the King of TT. Martin is. Plus there are a number of guys capable of beating him if they have a good day. I don't know what odds the British bookies are giving but I'd be surprised if the odds of him winning are above 20%
As for the cobbles, Cancellara's powerful legs and wily mind certainly make him a one of the more likely, but it still is a long shot. The field of potential winners is large here - there are about 25 guys who could take the stage. Luck plays some role on pave races. I'd be surprised if the odds of him winning were above 10% (though I doubt the odds were much higher for any one individual).

My point was that the Trek team's goals are unlikely to be met: I wouldn't take an even odds bet of them getting a top 10GC and a stage win.

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Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's

despite what some people say, i think it has some effect. I have a scott roadie (green edge edition) and im an aussie, so i have a bias towards OGE. Scott have a bit of a presence. Tri bike is a trek SC 2014 and im massive cancellara fan. However, Trek as a road team kinda sucks in terms of the tour. The new SC just represents the best value atm.
I dont seen many people rushing to buy merida bikes either. Now if merida had a sky like presence, i think merida sales would increase.

Anyone else notice how far back Rafal Majka is in the standings? Contador is the team's GC lead and its clear that Majka's role will be to be his mountain shepherd but still... anyone who grabbed him for his Fantasy team will not be happy.

I read an interesting article in the Polish sports news about him. Apparently he is pissed at Bjarne Riis (GM of Tinkoff-Saxo) for pulling him out of vacation and pressing him into service for the TdF. Apparently Roman Kreuziger's Bio-Passport has 'anomalies' and Bjarne had to pull him out and decided to use Majka instead. Majka apparently expressed dissatisfaction with Riis in Polish on his Facebook page (later deleted) - he said the team did not care about his health and future, and despite his protests that he felt too tired from his 6th place efforts at the Giro they were pressing him into service. Apparently he was saving himself for GC results at the Tour de Polgne and the Vuelta. His contract ends in 2015 - I wonder if he will be looking for a new team?

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Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's

I would put him, along with Sagan and Vanmarcke, as the 5 star favorites for tomorrow. Especially now that Andy is out, Trek will realize that this is one of their best shots at a stage win.

I would rank him as a four star favorite for the TT, behind Martin.

But to say he is a "long shot" for either stage is really kinda silly.

As for Trek's goals, as I noted in the thread baout Trek's new lightweight bike, my guess is that they were planning on sending Andy on a day long break on the first day in the mountains. This would highlight the new frame 9even though it would have extra weight tacked onto it) and give Andy a great shot the maillot pois. They will now have to reassess what their TdF goals are.....

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"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

Now if merida had a sky like presence, i think merida sales would increase.

I must confess that locally, here in the Toronto area, I do see more than a few Pinerello's. Although they tend to be under, riders who would appear to be very well off financially. I higher-end customer if you will.

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Merida is an interesting example.....their distribution is very scattered. They have a European presence, but are non-existant in North America (dunno about OZ) and have a very strong Asian presence. While I have never had this confirmed, I believe their lack of NA distrobution is mostly due to the fact that they don't want to compete directly with their customers. They are primarily an OEM supplier and a brand second.

Too often we gauge the return of sponsorship based on our NA view of things......

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

What he said. There is going to be some fur flying. Giddy up!

None of those other than GvA I guess. Going to be a tough day for Froome after crashing today, serious bad luck for him.

Watching Kittel and Sagan move forward in last 2k was a thing of beauty today. Around every corner Sagan would go forward while others hesitated.

Sagan makes up 5 spots in one corner.

I say Greg van A in yellow tomorrow.

Maybe cobble can correct me here, but doesn't Sep have team obligations as well? It would surprise me if he left Mollema unprotected to go chase down FC.

Technically he does.....but I think Belkin is also realistic that Mollema is a Top 5 guy, at best and they need a new sponsor. So Sep may be given the freedom to chase a stage win, if Mollema has other guys around hi.

The ideal situation would be that Mollema is in his group, obviously......

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

Good pick on Kristoff. Degenkolb is also racing. So two sprinter types who do well on cobbles. Chavanel may also be able to do something special, as does Langeveld. Real long shots go to Demare or Ladagnous on FDJ.

I'm hoping GvA would be able to do something special.

Hey diddle diddle marcel kittel up the middle.

Correct. Merida [arguably the worlds second largest bike co.] owns 49% of Spesh, and doesn't need to compete with itself in the NA market.

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res, non verba

Have to say Kittel is looking awesome. I'd have expected Greipel to put up a better show than he has done so far though. I think Cav would have been a lot more competitive than last year when he was tired after the Giro and his train wasn't really working. Great shame that he's gone.

I definitely think he can match Kittel next year - he'll be hugely motivated to get himself back on top after 3 relatively poor Tours in a row and he's got one of the smartest tactical brains in the peloton so am sure he'll be working on strategies to combat Kittel's outright speed. I remember a few years back Cav saying he'd deliberately sacrificed some top-end speed to become more of an all-rounder who could to compete for points jerseys and in one-day races such as the World Champs and Olympics. That was at a time when he was winning Tour stages for fun (20 in 4 years) and was being accused of being a one trick pony - having now won a World Champs and the points jersey in all 3 Grand Tours and after "only" winning 5 Tour stages in the last 3 years I suspect he might just be thinking it's time to focus everything on stage wins again.

Riding with a bad wrist over cobbles is going to be absolutely miserable.

But even before they owned 49% of Specialized, they had no interest in the NA market.

Outside of Specialized, I'm not certain who they are building bikes for in the US anymore.....they used to have a fair amount of trek's business, as well as Schwinn's among several smaller brands.

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

But there is no cure for Cav's sprinticuscontactuscrashitis.

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

No doubt about that, today was probably the worst possible time for Froome to go down. Will be really interesting to see if he can get through tomorrow, and if the GC teams even contribute to making the stage as hard as possible.

I think Nibbles and Conti will be killing it so hard

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

Yup, they have a really good shot to put time on Froome. He's no Wiggo on the cobbles for sure......

With all that staring at his stem, he's almost certain to crash...never going to see the pesky cobbles that are popped up higher than the others. They may have to run MTN bike tires on his bike to try to make up for the stem staring

Did he lose any time?

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

Any of the contenders could crash and end their Tour tomorrow, especially if they get overly ambitious and try to play with the big boys.

If the Wiggo decision kept Brailsford awake last week, today he's lamenting wtf he was thinking listening to Froome on team selection.

Any of the contenders could crash and end their Tour tomorrow, especially if they get overly ambitious and try to play with the big boys.


Indeed.


It will be an interesting day tomorrow - that's for sure.


There is going to be offense and their is going to be those on the defensive - possibly with some major time losses.


Cancellara for the win and Sagan in Yellow, when the dust settles.


As for Sky/Froome - could be a very challenging day for them. They have some guys like Bernie Eisel, who are at home in this sort of stuff, but can Froome keep up? What shape is he in after todays tumble?

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Weather is going to suck. GC guys will sit in, survive, limit damage, the pounders will pound it looking for the stage win.
But then......GC guy attacks GC group, a la Niboli, in an attempt to pick up some time.
Going to be fun, in most any scenario.

Also, while not a Sky fan, Froome is one tough, mean, competitive bwana. He will hang in and then some.

The smart play for GC guys is to agree to not got ape-sh*t, let the classics beasts do their thing on cobbles, and get through it in one piece. But hard to see that happening. Throw a Belgian in the mix plus chance to give Froome a kicking and all bets are off.

I hear selfies are an obstacle to look out for!

http://www.cnn.com/...index.html?hpt=hp_c3

Some of the comments at the bottom of the page made me LOL:

--- Just hash tag #selfiefail when you get run over by a cyclist, so the rest of us can see what a tool you are.
--- Or when a cyclist pimp slaps a person as they drive by. #roadrage #tourdeforce

The smart play for GC guys is to agree to not got ape-sh*t, let the classics beasts do their thing on cobbles, and get through it in one piece. But hard to see that happening. Throw a Belgian in the mix plus chance to give Froome a kicking and all bets are off.

Agreed.

Crowds will be HUGE. Emotions will be running high. If time can be gained, for a lower ranking GC guy, then why not have a go at it - I am thinking of a cagey vet here like a Valverde or a Dutch or Belgian rider( home turf for them). There may be some detente to start, but I am guessing when the race breaks wide open, all that will go out the window!


They are already talking this up like a big mountain stage - Phil & Paul going so far today to call it, "The Queen stage of the first week of the Tour"!

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

I'm hoping some of the GC guys actually attack. They'll know Froome will put time on them in the ITT and possibly the mountains so if they have the guts and the skill I hope some try to put time on the others who wants to play it safe. FC or Sep VM for the win and maybe Sagan/GVA for the Yellow.

Gravity is a harsh Mistress, and Speed is insatiable Temptress

That's puts you in the middle of a devastating threesome

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"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

I think Froome's injury could cause some GC teams to change their plans. Even if they do not gain any time on Froome, they will have in the back of their mind, "I am feeling pretty miserable, but at least I know Froome is feeling worse, so lets get more miserable." It is maybe a bit too predictable for Garmin to be unpredictable, since it makes sense for a GC guy like Talansky that is not quite at Contatodor/Froome level to use this sort of stage to get time to use this sort of chaos to grab time, so I think people will be watching Garmin. I would love for BMC to realize they are not Sky and do something unexpected.

I think you're right about BMC: they have GvA, Schar and Burghardt at the ready to make a move with Tejay. Arguably the best GC group for tomorrow

Really excited for tomorrow! Maybe Tony Martin could be a darkhorse. He has the power but hasn't been interested in the cobbles in the past.

I do not envy any of the team's directors tomorrow. They will have one million things coming at them every moment. What sort of plan do you go in to tomorrow with? The safe plan would be just do no lose time to the other GC rivals, but how do you even plan to do that? You can not just say stick by Contador or Froome. As trite as it is to say, there will be a lot to gain with risk, but also a lot to lose. Not to mention watching and reacting to what the other teams do. It is also a very different race than Roubaix, even for those going for the win, since many teams and very strong riders are looking at GC instead.

I think it will be interesting to see who goes into the break tomorrow. If GC teams put some people in the break, that could either result in calm race or total chaos.

Absolutely. This is their chance to hurt Froome. This stage is a potential gift for Contador who has shown that he can ride cobbles (he just typically doesn't want to). After tomorrow he may be a few minutes out of yellow, but as long as Nibali and Froome are further behind he should be happy.

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Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's

Froome out with broken collarbone tomorrow. Boom!

The thing is that Contador may not feel the need to put much time into Froome, so should he make a big risk and attack? He probably has the most to lose right now. Not to mention that Saxo will probably be the #1 team being watched by GC teams, so will be under a microscope and any attack will probably be marked. Unless alot of other GC team's moves have failed, then I think Saxo would strike.

Really or are you just kidding around? I just read on the BBC that he's OK and going to race.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/...t/0/cycling/28219348

A little banged up but he spent 20 minutes staring into a 'healing' stem and everything is healed up.

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Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's

Yes, an attack by Saxo would be marked. But, given the inevitable crashes and punctures, it's better to be at the pointy end. Contador has shown that he is fearless, sometimes bordering on reckless. It would be out of character for him to just play defense tomorrow.

Also factor in the fact that they don't have Boasson Hagen to help steer Froome through the cobbles......not many have talked about it, but his presence will be sorely missed tomorrow, I think.

Wiggo must be chuckling to himself tonight....cold comfort, though, sitting at home.

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

I think a bigger group will come together than expected (or I'm just playing devils advocate). I think Degenkolb or Kristoff for the win!

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Carson Christen
Sport Scientist / Coach
Torden Multisport

Froome tweeted @ 14:09hr today, https://twitter.com/...s/486618116156588033
Sounds like he's riding

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res, non verba

For sure, Eddy Boss would have been a good hand for tomorrow and all these chaotic stages. And of course, Wiggo too.

No, I'm saying he's going to hit the deck on the cobbles tomorrow. Bye bye Froome.

Sagan in yellow. This is not P-R... Cancellara will not get away, stage is only 155km.

FC stirring the pot- I like it https://twitter.com/...s/486617366504411137

@thejessemoore is Talansky's coach and has thrown a few nuggets from what his power files depict

That is awesome....definitely some guys not sleeping well tonight!!!

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

Did a team mechanic get fired tonight? Check closely in the secondary crash with Froome. The guy's handlebars look to have come off before he swerves right into the Cofidis guys. Then when the bike is on the ground it is clear it has no front wheel or bars on it. Also no wheel when it is carried off the road. That happened pre-crash.

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I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

I'm going with Boom tomorrow, simply because Sherwen will mention that he is a former CX world champion and suited for wet cobbles at least 37 times.

I don't see him on the podium, but I do see him punishing people early on and maybe in a break group on behalf of Terpstra et al. OPQ is good at this kind of parcourse.

And! Garmin has cards to play today.

2 sections of pavé removed due to the weather. Shame really.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/...o-weather-conditions

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´Get the most aero and light bike you can get. With the aero advantage you can be saving minutes and with the weight advantage you can be saving seconds. In a race against the clock both matter.´

BMANX

Bernie Eisel is pretty well accustomed to protecting leaders. And Geraint Thomas has a good pedigree on cobbles - top 10 finishes at both Paris-Roubaix and Tour of Flanders this year. So they've got reasonable coverage in that department, and Froome himself is a decent bike handler and tough enough to cope with the cobbles, though obviously he's going to be hurting after that fall.

I really don't think they'll be missing Wiggo at all - much better to get all the media attention about the Wiggins-Froome relationship out the way a month ago than to have it going on during the race. I don't know how much of an asset Wiggo would be today - he had a decent Paris-Roubaix result this year, but struggled badly in the Giro last year when it got wet. That was descending not cobbles, but he had several falls which I don't think were anybody's fault but his and looked to have no confidence on the wet roads at all.

Any team would miss a rider of Eddy's all-round qualities, but I think the scenario they would miss him most is the one in which Froome crashes out and they're left trying to salvage something from the Tour. I really can't see Porte having the consistency to do much better than a top 10 finish, and they don't have any obvious stage winners in the team unless somebody like Thomas gets lucky and gets in a break.

Sep can race for the win today but he'll kind of have to do it on his own, as guys like Wynants need to stay with Mollema.

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Don't forget to attack!

Well I may be biased but I would put my money on Lars Boom, Maarten Wynants, and the rest of Belkin riding for Mollema. Half of Team Belkin in the Tour is also their squad for Paris - Roubaix.

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Don't forget to attack!

Unfortunately, I'm afraid you will be right. I'm also thinking about Degenkolb as maybe THE biggest favorite today.

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Don't forget to attack!

I don't think Boom will get a chance to race for himself, expect he may need to stay with Ten Dam tomorrow.

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Don't forget to attack!

Boonen is home, scratching at the door to be let out.

Froome out. Crazy

He is done and in the car.

And we are just getting to the cobblestones.

Can I get some lottery numbers for today?

Bad luck, but also bad positioning. From the beginning Sky didn't look together as a team, no organization at the front, spread out all over. Bad things happen at the back.

Almost feel bad for Froome but not Brailsford. How he'll rue leaving Wiggo at home.

exactly, now Sky has no leader left. Definitely should not have left Wiggins at home.

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Don't forget to attack!

I have been tuning in here and there this morning, but how does FC look thus far?

You heard it here first: Richie Porte finishes on the podium.

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Interesting prognostication.... he looked good in 2013.... but this year he DNF'ed 3 of the 4 big races he entered, and ended up 22nd in the fourth (Critérium du Dauphiné.)

Its shaping up that Sky, Trek, and to a lesser degree Omega-Pharma are going to have a dissapointing TdF.

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Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's

invisible, which means very good for him. Sure he is up there close to te front getting ready to put the hammer down when they catch the break.

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Don't forget to attack!

DNF DNF DNF 22nd... good progression! should be peaking ;)

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

Come on Sep...

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Don't forget to attack!

Big move, they're not kidding around. It's falling apart behind them so if they make it to that front group, could be game over. I don't see Nibali's group coming back, he's going to gain time today.

In true Sky tradition.

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Feeling pretty good about both my predictions. Belkin is without a sponsor so if the chance for a stage is there, they will take it.

I <3 Peter Sagan. There I said it.

Ditto Nibali. He's really bringing it.
Curious about Fabian. A sleeper?

Damn, Nibali could end up with 2 minutes today, Kwiatkowski too--they're absolutely flying up front. Astana and OPQS will drive this as hard as they can. Could be a huge loss for AC, Tejay, Valverde.

Froome maybe out but Nibali is making this TdF exciting. They might win 1-2-3 today.

As much as I think this kind of stage is out of place and a bit reckless to put on, GODDAMN if Nibali hasn't impressed the absolute hell out of me. I already had the utmost respect because of his ridiculous descending abilities, but if he ends up winning the Tour because of this performance (including pushing the pace himself, not just following his teammates), he is ABSOLUTE legend.

For sure, can't believe they're not closing on him at all with BMC and Saxo chasing.

Here it comes: FC and Sagan have to light it up on last section.

Boom!

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Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's

Oooowwwww.... Lost the defending champ but the race is on!!!! Nibali stamps his claim early... With froomedog out, sharknado shows AC that the race is just beginning.

The last Dutch victory in the TdF was this date 9 years ago when Pieter Weening won in Gerardmer. As a Dutchman I'm very, very happy with this victory. Now we only need to grab the yellow jersey somewhere in the next days since the last Dutchman wearing yellow was Erik Breukink in 1989.

I should have put money on my predictions!

Lovely day for a ride, lads!

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"The runner-up John Dunbar, a US Navy Seal, led after the second transition and had a chance to win but ran out of water on the marathon course; his support crew resorted to giving him beer instead." -http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ironman_Triathlon

Great ride by Boom. I expected Boom to survive a breakaway not to win like this. I hope this is a good day for the Dutch all the way around!!

Was that your prediction?

Just out of curiosity, when does the Tour hit the mountains?

Thx, too lazy to look it up

With any luck they won't hit them, they will ride over them.

John

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Top notch coaching: Francois and Accelerate3 | Follow on Twitter: LifetimeAthlete |

Sometime this month. Yes, I'm too lazy too.

Good call.

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

End of Stage 8 fellas.

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

If it's rainy in the mountains...

Good on Nibali. He's taken a bunch of heat for no wins this season but he's ridden great since the spring.

This is going to be fun, watching AC et al attack him whenever possible. It ain't over by any stretch.
There is no team of doped up domestiques turned "climbers" to shut down any attacks in the mountains. Still wiiiiide open. This is the upside of a (mostly) clean peloton.

Where is that wizard who predicted the Giro TT near perfectly?

I want his predictions for the coming days.

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

Hehehe....

Not quite a broken collarbone... and not on the cobbles.

On Bastille Day.

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Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's

Tejay van Garderen (BMC Racing): “You guys got your drama, but that takes the race down a notch when you got your top favorite [Froome] out. In theory, it could make the race less exciting toward the end. I think ASO need to rethink having days like this in the race. For me, It could have been worse, it could have been better. We will just have to move forward.”

I'm disappointed that TJ blames his crash on the fan's desire for "drama". Most of the carnage didn't happen on the cobbles. It was raining, so what? Slow down if you can't stay upright.


Tj's sour grapes are too obvious.

This.

Froome was out before the cobbles....Teejay himself went down in a roundabout. Not a cobble in sight. So what....we should just cancel stages when it rains?

Astana and Nibali took the race by the throat today....but AC is a pretty crafty rider and will attack at every opportunity to claw back time. A jour sans is a real possibility for Nibali.

Race got super-interesting today, but is far from over.

Greta stage today.

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

Looks like he's had some time to think about it according to his twitter:

"Now that I've had a chance to cool off, I'd like to apologize for what I said to NBC. Today was an epic day of bike racing!!!"

And

"I Have a whole new level of respect for cobbled classic racers. Those guys are fucking warriors!!!"

Thanks for posting this. It is good to hear.

It really was a great stage today. Nibali showed real guts, AC yet again is caught out, Talansky smashes into a spectator but scrambles back, Sky changes leaders on the fly and Geraint Thomas and Porte take up the charge. Wow! And of course, Sagan, always there.

Technically correct, but realistically, they were jousting for position even before they hit the cobbles. Every year in PR, it's a mad dash into Arenberg. This is no different today. So while they disnt crash on the cobbles, the presence of cobbles led to the extremely fast and aggressive racing that led to the crashes

I understand. I don't think the racers should blame the organizers or fans for that. That's racing and is why I love to watch. The rain just made it even more technically difficult. Not one Orica rider went down. Froome down twice, Wow! TJ said his rear wheel slid out from under him.

Great stage!

Today was awesome. When was the last time a grand tour stage was this watchable from beginning to end? Usually, I'll forward through sections of the race but not today. I watched it wire to wire and was thoroughly entertained. Forget the queen stage, this was the king stage.

Reminds me of the US Open when the golfers complain about the course being too tough. That's part of what makes these events so compelling - pros struggling just to keep the rubber side down. They seem like mortals, if only for a day.

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/kj

http://kjmcawesome.tumblr.com/

I agree, it's a bike race, not the fastest hill climb. As Fabian opined, should they take out the mountains to make it easier for bigger guys? OTOH, you see the true GC hardmen like Nibali and Contador and Cadel rise to the occasion when it gets nasty, and take advantage of it. Suck it up, Tejay.

Not only did Nabali SHINE on the cobbles today, but, he finally tucked it under on the podium.

Bingo.

Nibali could be Cadel with a better palmare. Still thought it was an amazing ride by him when he fought his way back to the front in Firenze last year after crashing with two laps left. That's some grit amd determination

I agree, it's a bike race, not the fastest hill climb. As Fabian opined, should they take out the mountains to make it easier for bigger guys? OTOH, you see the true GC hardmen like Nibali and Contador and Cadel rise to the occasion when it gets nasty, and take advantage of it. Suck it up, Tejay. //

I think if you have that still on the DVR, go back as listen to what Fabian really said. Yes he said what you pointed out, but what i got out of his whole interview was that he too thought that the stage was a little crazy. He wouldn't just come out and say it like TJ, but you could definitely see that he felt the exact same way. For a long stage race like this and to have one day of luck play such a big part, i think he was alluding that it was not really great for the riders.


Anyway that is what i heard him say, i already erased it so i could have mistaken his feelings. Personally it was a great race to watch, start to finish. I do feel for the riders and i think it is also too much for this tour. Yes the rain made it 10 times worse, but i agree with another here that they took many more chances in that rain because of what was coming. If there were no cobbles, there would have been a couple crashes, not dozens. The peleton would have been a lot more tame, even probably waiting for early crashes instead of attacking every time they heard metal crunching and skin ripping.

Fabian was not happy in 2010 and managed to neutralize the stage. Hushovd was not happy at all, he though the conditions were not bad at all. Not a shock that Fabian did not like it today either.
BTW, the day after Fabian neutralized the stage he got into a break on pave with one of the Schleck and suddenly he was happy.
Strange ;-)

Totally agree. Just look at the wet start to this year's Giro. There were a bunch of favorites that fell and got knocked out (Purito) or lost a bunch of time (Kreuziger, Brajkovic, Arredondo, etc). It's all a part of bike racing.

Watching his post race interview he sounded concerned about all the crashes and injuries. It was certainly an intriguing stage for the fans and it obviously played out well for Boom, Nibali, Sagan and Fabian.

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

I read that from him somewhere before the stage. Can appreciate why he might have a different perspective after.

BTW, the day after Fabian neutralized the stage he got into a break on pave with one of the Schleck and suddenly he was happy.
Strange ;-) //

Well he got into the break today and did quite well, but he still was leaning on the stage being out of place for the TDF. Thats when i can really respect an athlete, when something may have turned out good for them, but they can still see that it was not good overall, and speak up about it. I'm sure he would love pave every day in every stage for his own racing, but he recognizes what is good for the sport and the riders and sticks to it..I think he really understands that there was a huge amount of luck involved in todays stage, and he just lucked out.

Cancellara made his feelings pretty clear in this quote from Velonews:

“The race was a mess. When I hear in the radio what was happening just with our riders, I can imagine what must be happening with the others – in my opinion this does not have a place in a Grand Tour. It was completely different than in April because the field is so different. Also the wet roads made it very dangerous – the whole course was now dangerous… Rasty [Gregory Rast] helped me a lot. The problem was there was always a gap because someone was tired, or slipped a bit, and you could not pass him on the cobbles. When the three Astanas and Boom went, this is what happened. Also, on wet cobbles it is very different, you cannot use a high cadence like when it’s dry, how I like to do… It was already a situation where I was pulling, and when they went everyone was looking at me and Peter [Sagan] to do the work. Just me and Peter could not make the difference, so I had to calculate my energy. I did not want to pull, pull, pull and then the others pass me at the end, so I had to manage myself and play a bit or otherwise I would have been even more behind. Hey, chapeau to Astana who did a fantastic ride – they honored the yellow jersey.”

Read more at http://velonews.competitor.com/...#1or078PKzElekJZv.99

Teejay was frustrated, and who wouldn't be. Lots of pressure on him. It seems like most of the young guys have their Tyler moment in the press and then regroup. Talansky had his rant last year and of course Farrar- the master.

Cycling is funny. Whine once, and you're a whiner. You just have to eat it and move on. These guys are all super tough yet as we know, right after a race one is really vulnerable.

I think Contador has become a master with the press. Like Nuke LaLoosh. Just want to help the team, taking it one day at a time.....

Are you not entertained?

http://www.iamtedking.com/...meaning-of-the-term/

Anyone's stage 6 stream just say Coverage beginning shortly?

Supposed to start at 8:15 EST.

.....97 miles in 3:18?....that's fracking nuts!

Thanks! Missed that below the button I don't read and just click. ha! Just saw that they were already racing and figured it would be on.

It does, in some ways, suck that the combination rain and cobbles add so much chaos and randomness to the results.

But, you can't control the weather, such is life. Happens all the time. See the Giro.

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

mortals....until you realize they covered 97 miles in rain, over cobbles in 3hr18min (29.4mph!)......crazy!

Let's be honest; yesterday's stage was one of the most thrilling and exciting stages to watch that wasn't a mountain stage. Just because the peleton was ripped apart b/c of the wet roads/cobbles, doesn't mean they shouldn't do it again in the future. Maybe riders will actually practice riding on wet cobbles more. It was clear that the skilled bike handling riders had an advantage just like the climbers have an advantage on mountain days. They need to keep this around! Maybe do a different classics course each year. I hope they don't nix it next year.

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http://www.natemillertri.com/

Two sections of cobblestones were cancelled due to the dangers in the pouring rain. That made the course 13.4k of cobblestones. That's a small percentage of the 155k course and many of the crashes (including Froomes two) occurred on slick roads rather than the cobblestones. Everyone seemed to be racing quite fast for the (poor) handling conditions.

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

talansky finished about where van garderen finished. vastly different response when the press asked each for their comments on yesterday's stage. talansky is a top-10 tour finisher and he won 1 of the 2 typical get-ready mini-tours for this race, and he still talks as if he's just grateful to be here.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

As mentioned previously, they were racing much faster than they normally would in those conditions because they knew the cobbles were coming up. Cobbles are far easier to negotiate if you have a good line of sight and can pick your course, therefore on a cobbled day it's even more important than normal to stay at the front of the peleton. Unfortunately they can't all be at the front...

From what Froome said, the issue wasn't just the conditions but his wrist impairing his ability to control his bike. Greg Lemond had an interesting take on this:

"If he had injured his wrist then it may have put a slight hesitation in his braking, which means you over-brake and, in those conditions, that is fatal."

I don't have a problem with this kind of stage being included. After all it's a bike race, and bike handling skills are as much a part of being the 'best cyclist' as fitness. That said, it's a shame for riders who get taken out in a crash by another rider and through no fault of their own. That can happen on any TdF stage, but obviously the chances of it happening on a stage like yesterday's is much higher.

Also, for those claiming most of the crashes occured before the cobbles and therefore it was just the same as any other wet day, this is not really true. Tire pressures and bike set ups were very different to account for the cobbles and this may have contributed to some of the crashes on the slick roads ahead of the cobbles. And of course some crashes did occur on the cobbles, and some riders lost time simply because they could not overtake slower riders on the cobbles.

Or today's stage.

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

Exactly. Lots of crashes today already and two riders have abandoned on the road.

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clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com

Out of interest, what differences would you expect? Wouldn't have thought they would mess with rider's positions, and if they did the changes would be aimed at giving them better handling (maybe shift their seat back and raise the front end slightly) which would work to their advantage on the slickroads as well. Same thing with tire choice - they might switch to something with a bit more grip (and puncture resistance) to help negotiate wet cobbles but that shouldn't hurt them on the slick roads.

The only thing I could think of that would benefit them on the cobbles but hurt them on the slick roads would be if they decided to run a higher tire pressure than they normally would in the wet in order to avoid pinch flats on the cobbles.

Most ran 27-28mm tubbie's. Velonews estimates they run 50-80psi on the cobble stages which I'd think would be fine for slick roads (under normal speeds). GCN The TdF bikes for the cobbles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GET2h0j0loA VeloNews What will the GC men ride on the cobbles? http://velonews.competitor.com/...-ride-cobbles_335092

I still think the crashes were basically just caused by biking too fast for the conditions rather than the pavé stage or the equipment.

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

The only thing I could think of that would benefit them on the cobbles but hurt them on the slick roads would be if they decided to run a higher tire pressure than they normally would in the wet in order to avoid pinch flats on the cobbles. //

I said it before and others too, just knowing the cobbles are coming up puts a tremendous amount of pressure to go faster on the normal roads. In the old days on our wednesday ride, we had several gates that were one bike length wide to go through. And once the bike racers joined us, they of course like to use them to form breaks. So after folks missed breaks only because the gate would single file the 100 riders, there became this made race to the gates. And guess what, people started crashing all over the place, where there were not crashes before. After some bad ones i finally made a rule, not attacking after the gates. If you were first through, you had to sit up and wait for everyone to get on before the racing could continue. Take away the advantage, and now no crashes.


Now i enjoyed watching that stage as much as the next guy, but having been in similar situations in other races, i do believe it is too much for a grand tour. Just too much luck involved. Even though Nibili got through and had a fine race, he too crashed and just as easily could be in the back of a car with Froome. When it is like this it is not as much about handling as it is just blind luck. How many riders who handled well still went down because someone else did? I would say for every wheel that slipped out that 4 or 5 more were casualties and were not going to crash on their own at that instant. That is just too much lottery for a grand tour.

Cancellara made his feelings pretty clear in this quote from Velonews:

“The race was a mess.//


Ya, that is pretty much what i was hearing from him in the interview. Since english is not his first language you could tell he was thinking a lot about how to say what he wanted to say without seeming like a crybaby. That is why i have much respect in the fact he did do well but still complained for the others.

yep I'd turn for that man. I wish he was still able to crush TT's like in days gone by. I dont think he or anyone else can get near Martin anymore. Having said that, atleast FC does well in bike races. Champ in spring classics. I dont hear a lot from Martin unless its a TT.

Loved today's sprint. Had a cat 3/4 feel to it.

FC is such a badass, his comments simply can't be construed as whiney. He could complain about his chamois feeling yucky and no one would say shit.

I dont hear a lot from Martin unless its a TT.

True - Although yesterday he potentially was playing a big role by being in an early break, for OPQS.

Not sure who the key guy was for the team - I would assume it was Terpstra. In a race like that it's always important to have someone up the road in a break, if for no other reason than you have equipment up the road - on those narrow cobbled sectors the team cars are not allowed. A puncture, along the pave sectors, can really set you back - but if you have a team-mate alongside with a spare wheel or bike, then the team favourite can be on his way quickly.

Never worked out for OPQS but, Astana played that game perfectly yesterday. If Nibali had had a puncture or mechanical late in the game, Westra or Fusgalng would have been right there for him! The latter two played a huge strategic role no matter - and their equipment help was not needed in the end - but this is bike racing and anything can happen.

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog