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overestimated FTP - now burnt out
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Hi folks,

Has this ever happened to anyone? Basically, for my winter training through about now I have been taking 95% of my 20min FTP test as my FTP and set all my zones accordingly. However, I recently did an actual, all-out 1hr TT where my avg power was about 90% of my 20min tests and a solid 35w less than my "predicted" FTP.

So essentially I have been doing all my intervals WAY too hard for the past 6 months, and with about 4 weeks to go until my "A" race, my legs feel absolutely cooked. How bad did I dun goof?
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Re: overestimated FTP - now burnt out [johnj121591] [ In reply to ]
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Is it possible you just suck at pacing 1 hour FTP tests since you've only ever done it once?


--Chris
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Re: overestimated FTP - now burnt out [johnj121591] [ In reply to ]
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So are you saying you didn't follow or try to pace the TT based on your ftp? You just went by feel then?

If so, I agree with the other guy that you probably paced it wrong. I've done the same thing on a short TT where I pushed too hard on the first half and was dead for the last few miles. (no power meter then).

This year finally got some but no time to race :(
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Re: overestimated FTP - now burnt out [chriselam] [ In reply to ]
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^Definitely possible, but for that 1 hr test I started out shooting for about 10+w less than my initial "predicted" ftp, which was 365 at the time. Started out shooting for ~350 and held that for around 35 mins but then started fading such that my last 10 mins were at like 305 and my total average was 330. My HR for the ordeal correlated with what I would expect for an all-out 60min effort.

For months I had been doing intervals based on an ftp of 365 (i.e. thresholds around 345w, vo2's around 405w) but for the last few weeks my legs have felt a *tad* fried. Any chance of getting myself together in the next month?
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Re: overestimated FTP - now burnt out [johnj121591] [ In reply to ]
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Perhaps you haven't gotten enough rest. Did you follow the full protocol for the 20 minute test? Do you do 2x20s? They're a good predictor for most. I have the opposite problem. Wish I had your power. I do 263 for the 20 minute test and 280 for a 50 minute effort.

Oh, was your 20 minute test on the trainer or outdoors? I have 2 friends who do their FTP outside. They both test 10+ watts higher than me. They both can't replicate it on race day.
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Re: overestimated FTP - now burnt out [johnj121591] [ In reply to ]
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My legs always feel like crap 4 weeks out from my A races (only do 70.3s right now). As for the 1hr TT, many can't hold their 20' FTP for an hour anyways. Could have just been a bad day for you as you should be heavy in a build this close to your A race anyways. You didn't say your A race distance but I would taper in as normal and not stress it personally.

Formerly TriBrad02
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Re: overestimated FTP - now burnt out [johnj121591] [ In reply to ]
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Did you do the 5' all out effort before the 20' test? A lot of people skip that thinking it's a warm up and not part of the test and they end up with an over-estimated FTP.

Even with the 5' effort, a lot of people can't hold 95% of their 20' power for a 40K TT. I think 92 or 93% is probably more realistic for most triathletes.

That said, it's not uncommon for your legs to feel tired and heavy in your final build. If your legs are truly "absolutely cooked" you should probably do a few easy days to see if they start to come around. You don't want to dig a hole you can't climb out of before your "A" race.
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Re: overestimated FTP - now burnt out [FatandSlow] [ In reply to ]
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My 20min test was actually outdoors - I rolled 383w for 20mins and was pretty toast at the end so I based my power off of that number. However, I did one workout where I did a HARD 2x20 at 371, 370 with 10 mins rest. I have always suspected that my 5-20 min power is better than my 1hr, but if that is the case, basically all of my training for the last 6 months has been more in the super-ftp zone since my 20 min "90% ftp's" were actually like 105%.
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Re: overestimated FTP - now burnt out [johnj121591] [ In reply to ]
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It's my understanding (never attempted an actual full hour FTP), that just because you get the number on the 20 minutes test, doesn't mean you can actually hold it for an hour. When you are a bit more "well rounded" in your training (long rides, intervals, sweet spot, etc.), then you can start transfer that 20 min test over to an extended ride. Plus like someone else said, I think a large portion of it is "knowing how to take the test". First couple of times taking the 20 minute test on trainerroad, I increase over 50 watts. This was in like 5 weeks. That was mostly due to knowing how to do the test. So I know the first time trying to take it to an hour, I'd have a learning curve.

I don't see how one can do intervals "way to hard". If you can complete them, and it not seriously affect your other workouts due to being burnt out, then I don't see how it's damaging. It could be bad if you had a false sense of what you can do on race day, but sounds like you figured that out. I would think 4 weeks is enough time to pull back and no longer feel like your legs are cooked by race day.
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Re: overestimated FTP - now burnt out [johnj121591] [ In reply to ]
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Not enough info in the post to say one way or another so it's a perfect opportunity to have complete strangers free-associate...

-You're using FTP, so are you tracking CTL and TSB? How much recovery are you actually getting?
-How fresh were you for your TT? Not fresh enough? Too fresh(don't laugh)?
-If you've been able to do intervals for all these months it suggests that you haven't overshot.
-But it does bear asking: What kind of intervals have you done?
-Your interval workouts: Are they just 2x20's? do you do, perhaps 3x20's? 1x40's? 4x20's? just doing 2x20's won't prepare you mentally for the 1-hour effort.
-With wattage as you've described, any kind of actual race TT would take you significantly less than an hour, so I'm guessing you found some open road and rode hard for an hour. Maybe your head wasn't in the right place

IMHO, I'd chalk it up to a bad day. Hey, if we could perform on-demand coaching wouldn't be so much of an art form.
Last edited by: M.E.T.: Jul 26, 16 6:37
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Re: overestimated FTP - now burnt out [johnj121591] [ In reply to ]
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I think outdoor tests overestimate FTP unless they're dead flat. I'm old, so these are the "old" rules for 2x20 and the 20 minute test. For the 2x20, 10 minute warm up, 20 all out, 5 min recovery, 20 all out, 5 min rest. Total 1 hour.

20 minute test. 10 minute warm up. 3 reps, 1 minute all out, 1 minute recovery, 5 minute recovery, 5 minute all out, 5 minute recovery, 20 minute test, 5 minute recovery. Total 55 min.

There are other ways, but I still use these.
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Re: overestimated FTP - now burnt out [johnj121591] [ In reply to ]
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Personally, I'm surprised if anyone can hold their FTP (based off a 20 min test or 2x20 even) for an hour.

blog
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Re: overestimated FTP - now burnt out [stevej] [ In reply to ]
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stevej wrote:
Personally, I'm surprised if anyone can hold their FTP (based off a 20 min test or 2x20 even) for an hour.


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Re: overestimated FTP - now burnt out [johnj121591] [ In reply to ]
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If you carefully read the testing protocol there is a 5min all out effort before 20min effort. After that you may apply 95% correction. That is a part of you problem. Reading over time, here on this forum, folks do what you just did quite often and are shocked to find the reality. Actually, even with 5min all out/ 20min all out, correction for most is more like 92% of 20min.
People like to inflate FTP numbers as it makes them feel better.
Your experience is very typical and I have gone done similar road before. I don't test anymore. I could care less what my FTP is. I use 3hr and 5hr power and heart rate from my training rides to dial in HIM or IM bike. I do not need FTP for that.
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Re: overestimated FTP - now burnt out [Andrew Coggan] [ In reply to ]
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Andrew Coggan wrote:
stevej wrote:
Personally, I'm surprised if anyone can hold their FTP (based off a 20 min test or 2x20 even) for an hour.


So your 60 min NP is 220w but your sFTP is 245. Are you trying to prove my point or did I miss something here?

blog
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Re: overestimated FTP - now burnt out [johnj121591] [ In reply to ]
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"So essentially I have been doing all my intervals WAY too hard for the past 6 months"

Personally, the way I know I'm doing the intervals WAY too hard is that I can't do them. If you were actually burnt out, you'd stop hitting your #s.
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Re: overestimated FTP - now burnt out [stevej] [ In reply to ]
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stevej wrote:
So your 60 min NP is 220w but your sFTP is 245. Are you trying to prove my point or did I miss something here?

Sorry, I should have explained: TTE = time-to-exhaustion, i.e., the maximum duration that a power equal to (model-derived) FTP can be maintained. As you can see, for me it has varied over the years from as little as ~34 min when I haven't been training very much (2002, 2016 - see top bar) to as long as ~64 min, but has generally been around 50 +/- 5 min (or about as long as it takes to ride a 40 km TT - fancy that!).


Last edited by: Andrew Coggan: Jul 26, 16 7:39
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Re: overestimated FTP - now burnt out [johnj121591] [ In reply to ]
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johnj121591 wrote:
My 20min test was actually outdoors

and was your 60-minute TT on the trainer?
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Re: overestimated FTP - now burnt out [johnj121591] [ In reply to ]
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GIGO

Brian Stover USAT LII
Accelerate3 Coaching
Insta

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Re: overestimated FTP - now burnt out [Andrew Coggan] [ In reply to ]
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Now that's cool. :)

blog
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Re: overestimated FTP - now burnt out [climber7] [ In reply to ]
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No, it was on a long, steep Hors Categorie climb.
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Re: overestimated FTP - now burnt out [johnj121591] [ In reply to ]
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You sound nervous a month before an important race .. Good job, that's normal!

You went harder than plan on intervals leading up to the race, no worries.

And your FTP is lower than you thought, big ego hit I'm sure.

Have you done race sim workouts (long ride + runs) to dial in power / pacing? Those should guide your race approach more than a generic "ride @ x% of FTP for your Triathlon"

Your race will probably be fine
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Re: overestimated FTP - now burnt out [johnj121591] [ In reply to ]
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johnj121591 wrote:
Hi folks,

Has this ever happened to anyone? Basically, for my winter training through about now I have been taking 95% of my 20min FTP test as my FTP and set all my zones accordingly. However, I recently did an actual, all-out 1hr TT where my avg power was about 90% of my 20min tests and a solid 35w less than my "predicted" FTP.

So essentially I have been doing all my intervals WAY too hard for the past 6 months, and with about 4 weeks to go until my "A" race, my legs feel absolutely cooked. How bad did I dun goof?

Keep in mind estimating isn't exact. My 20min power is almost 120% of my FTP, so this general 'rule of thumb' isn't the end-all.

Also if you were training on a turbo you're power output will most likely be different on the road.

One more thing, was your 20min test in the aerobars?
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Re: overestimated FTP - now burnt out [johnj121591] [ In reply to ]
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So reset your ftp with the new data? That will scale down the workouts a bit-
Also, are you operating in zones or just forcing yourself to hold a hard number?
Holding a hard and high number is often not sustainable over time.

And are you at all watching heart rate? I know that heart rate has its flaws- but it is another data point.
Last edited by: bootsie_cat: Jul 26, 16 8:52
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Re: overestimated FTP - now burnt out [bootsie_cat] [ In reply to ]
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You're almost to the taper . I wouldn't let the FTP number get to you . You did hard intervals , like was stated before , if you nailed them then great! I'm sure you weren't fully rested for your TT anyway being 4 weeks out! Have fun , execute YOUR race, don't worry about the numbers !

Big Sexy Racing 2018
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