"Were the courses flat or 'sporting'. re: your 40km TT, didn't HR show the same thing, i.e. that you went out way too hard???"
NO! My HR went to 175 and flatlined the entire race--both going out hard and going out easier..which is why I don't trust it! Temperature was really high during the 'easier' start, and PE was quite low--HR was jacked. When I started going harder, HR stayed the same....
The 40KM was a big tailwind out, headwind back. I *thought* I was going easy. Going back and figuring, I'd estimate 290W out and 245W back...
And yeah, you're right about the stuff that impacts perfomance (crying babies, etc). It just seems that power is the best measure, and it's immediate. Sure if your FTP is 300W, but you're struggling at 220W, you can only do what you can do. I think the more likely scenario though is "feeling really good" and blowing the first part by going to hard.
This really hit home on the ONE TT I really paced well w/o a power meter. I showed up late, had ZERO warmup for a 12 mi. TT--my number was being pinned as my 30 second guy went off. My 'warm-up' consisted of going what 'felt' WAY too easy for the first 5 minutes of the race. To this day, it's the fasted TT I've done.
Sure, I could try to "go easy" again, but why guess?? There's no downside to using the PM!
NO! My HR went to 175 and flatlined the entire race--both going out hard and going out easier..which is why I don't trust it! Temperature was really high during the 'easier' start, and PE was quite low--HR was jacked. When I started going harder, HR stayed the same....
The 40KM was a big tailwind out, headwind back. I *thought* I was going easy. Going back and figuring, I'd estimate 290W out and 245W back...
And yeah, you're right about the stuff that impacts perfomance (crying babies, etc). It just seems that power is the best measure, and it's immediate. Sure if your FTP is 300W, but you're struggling at 220W, you can only do what you can do. I think the more likely scenario though is "feeling really good" and blowing the first part by going to hard.
This really hit home on the ONE TT I really paced well w/o a power meter. I showed up late, had ZERO warmup for a 12 mi. TT--my number was being pinned as my 30 second guy went off. My 'warm-up' consisted of going what 'felt' WAY too easy for the first 5 minutes of the race. To this day, it's the fasted TT I've done.
Sure, I could try to "go easy" again, but why guess?? There's no downside to using the PM!