Fleck wrote:
He's racing the best and finished on 4 podiums this year- a 140.6 WC 2nd and a 3rd in the biggest prize event in the sport- Collins Cup. He had a shitty Kona, but there's nothing I see from the sport that he's suddenly 1 year away from being "left behind". It's becoming clearer that Lionel's year and success in that year is based almost solely how he did at the IMWC's in KONA (caps important). ALL other races seem to mean very little to him. Look - I know him well. Have been close to his career, literally since Day-One - Announcing at many of his early races at the Multisport Canada Series years ago when he was just getting going. I have interviewed him several times publicly for Client's Events.
The TOTAL commitment to that race and winning there in some respects is to be admired - in Long Course Triathlon Racing it's the top prize - but my feeling and sense is that it's now past him by. The 2nd place to Patrick Lange a few years back will be the high water mark. And a number of things all aligned that particular year, in that particular race for that to happen.
You get a year or two to utilize a strategy at the IMWC - then the rest of the field adjusts and they are on to you. With LS's chronic swim time deficit, that I doubt will ever change, the adjustment from the rest of the field is to never let him back into the race. Unless Lionel get's off the bike with a 5 - 10 minute lead - this is NOT a race he can win! It's really that simple and that scenario is NEVER going to happen going forward!
Because of the swim deficit I think he needs to have the strongest run in the field in order to ever have even a chance of winning. His bike can only get him back to the front pack at best, but running sub 2:40 after that, if he can ever even get back to the front pack, will be a requirement.