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Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona
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So what's he gonna do? Race it to try and get the "World Record" back? Or possibly get the real world record? Or just validate to punch his Kona ticket?

Last year he went:

S: 53:45
B: 4:04:38
R: 2:42:31
7:44:29

It looks like the lead swim group last year came in just under 50 minutes (Brent Mcmahon was off the front @ 48:21). Can he hang with them this year? I think probably so.

I also think he could possibly break 4 on the bike with his proper IM training this year.

I don't see the run being much faster.

So I'll go
50:00
4:00:00
2:42:00
7:36 (4 min for T1/T2)

That'll be damn close to Frodo's 7:35:39 at Roth. I hope they have good coverage!!

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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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I would love to see a Sanders vs Starky head to head matchup.......

It's all about the post count!!!
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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I would love to see him head out and smoke it, but I don't know how deep he will be able to go after Kona.


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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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I know that many pros are able to recover quick, and some even do IM's one or two weeks apart. However, if I was in his position I'd simply validate and focus on 2018. Recover from going deep at Kona and look forward should be the focus. Simply going for the IM record seems to be mostly a marketing thing - but also something sponsors may push an athlete towards.


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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [natethomas] [ In reply to ]
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If you saw his interviews after the race, he said he thinks he just messed up his nutrition and bonked. Said that after he ate some food after the race his range of motion miraculously returned and that he wasn't near as sore as he was expecting in the days after the race. It may be that he went deep into the mental well, but physically running 2:52 may not have taken that much out of him physically. Will be interesting to see.

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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [japarker24] [ In reply to ]
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japarker24 wrote:
I would love to see a Sanders vs Starky head to head matchup.......

They are not even in the same ball park
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [jkhayc] [ In reply to ]
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jkhayc wrote:
japarker24 wrote:
I would love to see a Sanders vs Starky head to head matchup.......


They are not even in the same ball park

Starky would come out of the swim well ahead of Sanders. Then both would push the bike, one to stay ahead, the other trying to catch. Surely, a bike record would fall. Then it would be interesting to see when the pass happens on the run......

It's all about the post count!!!
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [japarker24] [ In reply to ]
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if Starky was within 20 minutes of Lionel at the end of an IM I'd be pretty surprised. 2016 was a very fast year, but one might argue LS wasn't even really in peak IM shape. vs. peak Starky



(ETA - sorry these turned out much bigger than I anticipated)
Last edited by: jkhayc: Nov 9, 17 7:49
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [jkhayc] [ In reply to ]
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What you fail to mention is that Sanders only beat Starky by 7 minutes in that 2015 race.

It's all about the post count!!!
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [japarker24] [ In reply to ]
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Yes, I did "fail to mention" that. My main point is that Starky and Sanders are completely different animals at IM right now. If current Starky was within 20 minutes (or 1/3 of an hour) of current Sanders - like I said - I'd be surprised.

If LS sniffs the potential for a sub 7:45 I have no doubt he'll go for it. Whether he'll be able to do it 4 weeks post Kona is anybody's guess.
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [japarker24] [ In reply to ]
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Are Lionel and Brent the only real front runners for the win here??
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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I predict he'll be walking on the run.
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [ErickBar] [ In reply to ]
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ErickBar wrote:
Are Lionel and Brent the only real front runners for the win here??

Not sure how his prep has been but Del Corral is a former winner at IMAZ

It's all about the post count!!!
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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I think it will be fast, but don't think he will break 4. But if he swims 4 min faster he will def challenge the IM record.
Don't think he is touching 7:35, (though Roth is short iirc).
Wurf will be the first to break 4h in Busselton.
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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He won't swim 50. He won't go under 4. He won't break the record.
He will validate. He will win. He will break 8 hours.

He had a better field to do 7:44 last year. He will be in first at 60km on the bike. Last year he was in 4th at 60km on the bike with Wurf 3 minutes up the road.

ETA: Actually he was probably in 5th at 60km, missed Graves being ahead of him.

------------------------
Cornwall (Ontario) Triathlon
Last edited by: RobAllen: Nov 9, 17 8:07
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [japarker24] [ In reply to ]
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Yeah, last yearwe had overcast weather all day long so I think that helped speed things up for everyone. From what I hear, that's a rarity for IMAZ.
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [hadukla] [ In reply to ]
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What is the prize money for 1st, 2nd & 3rd?
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [japarker24] [ In reply to ]
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japarker24 wrote:
ErickBar wrote:
Are Lionel and Brent the only real front runners for the win here??


Not sure how his prep has been but Del Corral is a former winner at IMAZ
Not sure how Philip Graves' form is but he's a decent swimmer and good cyclist so should be in the mix, until T2 of course. After that not so much.
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [ErickBar] [ In reply to ]
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ErickBar wrote:
What is the prize money for 1st, 2nd & 3rd?

scroll down
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [japarker24] [ In reply to ]
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japarker24 wrote:
What you fail to mention is that Sanders only beat Starky by 7 minutes in that 2015 race.

In 2015 maybe, today, Starky loses to anyone with decent pressure on the run. Starky is a beast on the bike but his run is god awful compared to a load of other pro athletes. Not in the same league..
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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Symonds and Sanders together at mile 20. Symonds for the win by 3-5 minutes.

**desired emotional outcome, symonds has been missing/injured for a while.

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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [ErickBar] [ In reply to ]
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I would love to see Jeff Symonds pull off a good race. Perhaps a podium placing is a possibility.
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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Can't we just skip the race and go right to analyzing his Facebook status updates?
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [ErickBar] [ In reply to ]
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ErickBar wrote:
Are Lionel and Brent the only real front runners for the win here??

I'm going with Clint Kimmins... OK, so the guy is probably not going to win, but he's got quite the story.


AndresLD
Beyond Aero | Berkeley, CA

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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [DJRed] [ In reply to ]
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DJRed wrote:
Can't we just skip the race and go right to analyzing his Facebook status updates?

This.

I can't believe how full of himself and egotistical he is based on those Facebook status updates that he hasn't yet made and I won't read anyway...

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