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Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona
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So what's he gonna do? Race it to try and get the "World Record" back? Or possibly get the real world record? Or just validate to punch his Kona ticket?

Last year he went:

S: 53:45
B: 4:04:38
R: 2:42:31
7:44:29

It looks like the lead swim group last year came in just under 50 minutes (Brent Mcmahon was off the front @ 48:21). Can he hang with them this year? I think probably so.

I also think he could possibly break 4 on the bike with his proper IM training this year.

I don't see the run being much faster.

So I'll go
50:00
4:00:00
2:42:00
7:36 (4 min for T1/T2)

That'll be damn close to Frodo's 7:35:39 at Roth. I hope they have good coverage!!

Pro start list:

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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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I would love to see a Sanders vs Starky head to head matchup.......

Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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I would love to see him head out and smoke it, but I don't know how deep he will be able to go after Kona.

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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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I know that many pros are able to recover quick, and some even do IM's one or two weeks apart. However, if I was in his position I'd simply validate and focus on 2018. Recover from going deep at Kona and look forward should be the focus. Simply going for the IM record seems to be mostly a marketing thing - but also something sponsors may push an athlete towards.

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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [natethomas] [ In reply to ]
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If you saw his interviews after the race, he said he thinks he just messed up his nutrition and bonked. Said that after he ate some food after the race his range of motion miraculously returned and that he wasn't near as sore as he was expecting in the days after the race. It may be that he went deep into the mental well, but physically running 2:52 may not have taken that much out of him physically. Will be interesting to see.
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [japarker24] [ In reply to ]
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japarker24 wrote:
I would love to see a Sanders vs Starky head to head matchup.......

They are not even in the same ball park
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [jkhayc] [ In reply to ]
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jkhayc wrote:
japarker24 wrote:
I would love to see a Sanders vs Starky head to head matchup.......


They are not even in the same ball park

Starky would come out of the swim well ahead of Sanders. Then both would push the bike, one to stay ahead, the other trying to catch. Surely, a bike record would fall. Then it would be interesting to see when the pass happens on the run......

Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [japarker24] [ In reply to ]
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if Starky was within 20 minutes of Lionel at the end of an IM I'd be pretty surprised. 2016 was a very fast year, but one might argue LS wasn't even really in peak IM shape. vs. peak Starky



(ETA - sorry these turned out much bigger than I anticipated)
Last edited by: jkhayc: Nov 9, 17 7:49
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [jkhayc] [ In reply to ]
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What you fail to mention is that Sanders only beat Starky by 7 minutes in that 2015 race.

Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [japarker24] [ In reply to ]
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Yes, I did "fail to mention" that. My main point is that Starky and Sanders are completely different animals at IM right now. If current Starky was within 20 minutes (or 1/3 of an hour) of current Sanders - like I said - I'd be surprised.

If LS sniffs the potential for a sub 7:45 I have no doubt he'll go for it. Whether he'll be able to do it 4 weeks post Kona is anybody's guess.
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [japarker24] [ In reply to ]
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Are Lionel and Brent the only real front runners for the win here??
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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I predict he'll be walking on the run.
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [ErickBar] [ In reply to ]
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ErickBar wrote:
Are Lionel and Brent the only real front runners for the win here??

Not sure how his prep has been but Del Corral is a former winner at IMAZ

Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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I think it will be fast, but don't think he will break 4. But if he swims 4 min faster he will def challenge the IM record.
Don't think he is touching 7:35, (though Roth is short iirc).
Wurf will be the first to break 4h in Busselton.

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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He won't swim 50. He won't go under 4. He won't break the record.
He will validate. He will win. He will break 8 hours.

He had a better field to do 7:44 last year. He will be in first at 60km on the bike. Last year he was in 4th at 60km on the bike with Wurf 3 minutes up the road.

ETA: Actually he was probably in 5th at 60km, missed Graves being ahead of him.
Last edited by: RobAllen: Nov 9, 17 8:07
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [japarker24] [ In reply to ]
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Yeah, last yearwe had overcast weather all day long so I think that helped speed things up for everyone. From what I hear, that's a rarity for IMAZ.

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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [hadukla] [ In reply to ]
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What is the prize money for 1st, 2nd & 3rd?
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [japarker24] [ In reply to ]
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japarker24 wrote:
ErickBar wrote:
Are Lionel and Brent the only real front runners for the win here??


Not sure how his prep has been but Del Corral is a former winner at IMAZ
Not sure how Philip Graves' form is but he's a decent swimmer and good cyclist so should be in the mix, until T2 of course. After that not so much.
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [ErickBar] [ In reply to ]
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ErickBar wrote:
What is the prize money for 1st, 2nd & 3rd?

scroll down
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [japarker24] [ In reply to ]
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japarker24 wrote:
What you fail to mention is that Sanders only beat Starky by 7 minutes in that 2015 race.

In 2015 maybe, today, Starky loses to anyone with decent pressure on the run. Starky is a beast on the bike but his run is god awful compared to a load of other pro athletes. Not in the same league..
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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Symonds and Sanders together at mile 20. Symonds for the win by 3-5 minutes.

**desired emotional outcome, symonds has been missing/injured for a while.
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [ErickBar] [ In reply to ]
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I would love to see Jeff Symonds pull off a good race. Perhaps a podium placing is a possibility.
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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Can't we just skip the race and go right to analyzing his Facebook status updates?
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [ErickBar] [ In reply to ]
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ErickBar wrote:
Are Lionel and Brent the only real front runners for the win here??

I'm going with Clint Kimmins... OK, so the guy is probably not going to win, but he's got quite the story.
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [DJRed] [ In reply to ]
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DJRed wrote:
Can't we just skip the race and go right to analyzing his Facebook status updates?

This.

I can't believe how full of himself and egotistical he is based on those Facebook status updates that he hasn't yet made and I won't read anyway...

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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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I think Phillip Graves and Sanders could both push a strong bike pace at IMAZ.

I'm not sure where they will be relative to each other after the swim?!?! But based on what Graves has done in the UK time trial scene, he and Sanders could push each other similar to what Sanders/Kienle/Wurf did in Kona.
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [mauricemaher] [ In reply to ]
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mauricemaher wrote:
Symonds and Sanders together at mile 20. Symonds for the win by 3-5 minutes.

**desired emotional outcome, symonds has been missing/injured for a while.

Symonds is on the start list for Cozumel too, surely he's not racing back to back weekends.
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [ErickBar] [ In reply to ]
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Brent should be in good shape to go as he never did much in Hawaii
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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Well first of all how does anyone think that he has magically since Kona closed the 5 minute gap to the lead swim group? Have you folks never swam a stroke before? He is where he is and it won't budge between October and November. The lead group could slow down as I see not a great amount of top swimmers, but should be enough to do that 48 again. Perhaps he will only lose 4 minutes instead of 5, but he is not swimming 50 flat unless the leaders are going 45's..

I see Phillip Graves in the race but haven't seen his form since he came on the scene. He was Starky like in that he has a front pack swim with a hammer bike, so if he is where he once was it could be fun for awhile during the bike ride. Brent is of course the only challenger, but a long shot for sure.

One never knows what is in the head of guys like Lionel, he doesn't seem to think past the race he is currently doing, so he may drill it the entire way. He shouldn't, just take a win and move onto the off season. He certainly is not going 7;35 unless his mother is measuring the courses..
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
Well first of all how does anyone think that he has magically since Kona closed the 5 minute gap to the lead swim group? Have you folks never swam a stroke before? He is where he is and it won't budge between October and November. The lead group could slow down as I see not a great amount of top swimmers, but should be enough to do that 48 again. Perhaps he will only lose 4 minutes instead of 5, but he is not swimming 50 flat unless the leaders are going 45's..

He swam 53:45 last year (wetsuit swim) and is a massively better swimmer this year. He swam 53:41 at Kona leading his group most of the way. In this wetsuit swim at AZ if he can stay on the feet of the big group that came in at 50 (through the initial surge) I don't see why he wouldn't be able to stay with them the rest of the way.
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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He swam 53:45 last year (wetsuit swim) and is a massively better swimmer this year. He swam 53:41 at Kona leading his group most of the way.//

Hey Sean, all swim times on different courses are not created equal, sorry bud..In Kona he was over 6 minutes behind the leader, 5 minutes behind the lead group, that is the important number. In Az last year he was 5 minutes behind the leader, that is the important number. Like I said, the lead group won't be drilling it like Kona and he might have a minute more in him, but he is still gonna be around 4 minutes or so off the lead swimmer. He will not be on their feet, take that to the bank...(-; Unless of course he pays them to swim for him, he tried that once...
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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The swim will be a different dynamic this year for sure. There are a couple of fast guys but I think the front group will be more sustained with a 2nd group in the low 50s. I think Sanders might have an outside chance of sticking with that group and come in the 51 range or so. The reason it is a crapshot is attendance by pros at IMAZ keeps falling. At one time this was the premier race with tons of racers and intermediate swimmers. Those intermediate swimmers are what we call gap fillers that allow other guys to form a long continuous chain of guys instead of gaps. With less gap fillers there is less margin of error. Less margin for error means you need a greater awareness. We shall see. Regardless, I am excited to watch!!!


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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [jkhayc] [ In reply to ]
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How deep does that 80K pay out? 5 athletes deep?

All this said basically all Lionel has to do is put about 7-10 minutes on Brent on bike and cruise in for the win/validation. I can't see him going 'Kona Deep' again. There is no need...
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [ErickBar] [ In reply to ]
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if you read that whole page i linked (it's not long) you would've found the answer... it pays out to 10th place at 80k races.
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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Bumping this back up as it's race week. So as to the question of Lionel's intentions for this race, here's some interesting intel from his strava.









And in case you didn't see this on IG...


https://www.instagram.com/...taken-by=lsanderstri
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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Both of those workouts look like workouts that he swore off— Race pace for a very long time. Interesting.

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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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Wow if that is calibrated correctly it was a real grind workout! 78 cadence is way low!

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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Are these 'fake workouts'?
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [mungub50] [ In reply to ]
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The bike looks like intervals at 350w. 1st interval 1 hr, 2nd 45 min then 3 at 10 min? Then he finished off with 5 30s efforts at 400w.

The run is easier just to post the plot, doesn't look like steady pace the whole time.


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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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Spot on breakdown. Lionel is going to have a good race.
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [japarker24] [ In reply to ]
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japarker24 wrote:
jkhayc wrote:
japarker24 wrote:
I would love to see a Sanders vs Starky head to head matchup.......


They are not even in the same ball park


Starky would come out of the swim well ahead of Sanders. Then both would push the bike, one to stay ahead, the other trying to catch. Surely, a bike record would fall. Then it would be interesting to see when the pass happens on the run......

There would be nothing interesting out of that, the outcome is well known. This is triathlon and not a bike race.
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [kbd] [ In reply to ]
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Graves is a front pack swimmer, so Sanders will have to bike up to him first. Sanders is a way better runner vs Graves. Phil Graves is your typical strong Swim-Biker.

29 years and counting
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [atasic] [ In reply to ]
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atasic wrote:
japarker24 wrote:
jkhayc wrote:
japarker24 wrote:
I would love to see a Sanders vs Starky head to head matchup.......


They are not even in the same ball park


Starky would come out of the swim well ahead of Sanders. Then both would push the bike, one to stay ahead, the other trying to catch. Surely, a bike record would fall. Then it would be interesting to see when the pass happens on the run......

There would be nothing interesting out of that, the outcome is well known. This is triathlon and not a bike race.

You may not find it interesting, but others, like myself, just might.

Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
Well first of all how does anyone think that he has magically since Kona closed the 5 minute gap to the lead swim group? Have you folks never swam a stroke before? He is where he is and it won't budge between October and November. The lead group could slow down as I see not a great amount of top swimmers, but should be enough to do that 48 again. Perhaps he will only lose 4 minutes instead of 5, but he is not swimming 50 flat unless the leaders are going 45's..

I see Phillip Graves in the race but haven't seen his form since he came on the scene. He was Starky like in that he has a front pack swim with a hammer bike, so if he is where he once was it could be fun for awhile during the bike ride. Brent is of course the only challenger, but a long shot for sure.

One never knows what is in the head of guys like Lionel, he doesn't seem to think past the race he is currently doing, so he may drill it the entire way. He shouldn't, just take a win and move onto the off season. He certainly is not going 7;35 unless his mother is measuring the courses..

Graves has been riding 3:20 centuries in the UK TT scene. He and Wurf were riding IM Wales together, but Graves went down hard on an oil slick someone put down. Graves will probably have a few minutes on Sanders out of the water, but expect them to hammer together and then Sanders to put 1+ minute per mile into him on the run.
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Re: Predictions for Lionel @ Arizona [kny] [ In reply to ]
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Cool I hope Phillip is back on form, will make the race to T2 much more exciting. I don't think anyone believes that anyone other than Lionel is going to win this race, as long as he is healthy and doesn't crash. That is what all the talk is about the race before the finish, the one to T2, that should provide some entertainment and there is some solid speculation about what could happen there.
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