Race is on Sunday Dec 3. 2:18 is US Olympic qualifying time. He might be able to do it.

I hope so, but I don’t think so. That would be ~17 minutes faster than his best IM run. Weather looks ideal other than slight headwind.

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Let food be thy medicine...

No idea, but I hope he does!

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

Going to be really close. Weather good but not perfect -- low-50s/humid/small headwind. The good news is he can just tuck in with the other 100 runners going for the OTQ. I think he'll be able to make it pretty late into the race in a big pack. He routinely runs solo 2:30s after swimming 2.4 miles & biking 112 in trash weather conditions. He didn't go through a huge block for this but I would like to think the top runners in the sport could do it.

saw that and am intrigued - cool project! matts seems like a lovely guy and i hope he nails it.

also worth noting that he's not really 'running for a PB' or something here - he's going 2:18 or bust. so he'll take it out at that pace, hold as long as he can, and then blow up if he blows up.

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

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I really hope he makes it but I have some doubts. Reminds of Mark Allen's failed attempt a few decades ago.

It is just insane how good the top LC pros are at running an IM marathon relative to their open marathon pace.

Funny how people are putting him down. 2:18 is the B standard. He should be able to execute,if anything 2:30 run 140.6 guy closer to 2:12. My prediction 2:15

Oh man as much as I'd love to see that, I'm gonna have to put a large amount of money on the over. Would be fantastic if he can break 2:18

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Will be interesting (less impressive but also to see if Nick Bare gets under the 2:45/40 bar).
The pro field isn't super deep and there are a lot of elites with a PB around 2:18, wonder if he will be able to start with the pros... would certainly help.
It's actually on the "warmer" side (mid 50s in the am), low wind (rare in Sacramento) and feels really humid so hopefully won't affect him.

I don't think anyone is putting the guy. What do you mean by B standard? I thought the Olympic trial standard was 2:18.

No way he will run closer to 2:12. He will go sub 2:25. 2:12-2:15 are not 160 lb guys with swimming and biking muscles.

With the numbers Nick has been hitting in training per his videos he should blow past 2:45. I’m thinking 2:41-2:39

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Let food be thy medicine...

^this^ 2:25 would be an amazing result. Lange is the only current triathlete I see sniffing sub 2:20, maybe Iden.

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Let food be thy medicine...

2:12 is 3:08 per km pace. That is 31.20 10km.

How fast does Matt run in an Olympic tri ? I don't know, I am just asking.

Didn't Ryan Bolton and Christian Bustos run 2:23 range and that's about as fast as we have ever seen from a pro triathlete? Of course they were done in the pre spring shoes era, so that SHOULD help the 160 lbs pro triathlete.

At 140 lbs when Salazar was running sub 28 min 10km open, he was only doing 2:11 at US Olympic trials if that provides some perspective on how fast the scales are.

stefan justus run a 2,18 marathon the year before he finished runner up world champ in the world series 2010. In todays shoe currency likely a 2.15 2.16ish

I believe Tyler Butterfield (?) also ran a 2:21.

33:38 but he's probably raced like 2 olympic distance races in his entire pro career.

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What's your CdA?

He’s on 5:11 per mile/2:16 pace through 10k

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Let food be thy medicine...

48:41 through 15K

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Jason
None of the secrets of success will work unless you do.

good lord, for a second there i thought you meant 2:16 per kilometer.

5:11 is still plenty speedy for a marathon, mind you.

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

he's crossed the half at 1:08:45 ... still on pace!

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Now the real test starts. He seems to be holding the 5:18s pretty well though.

Until the 533 pace.

Yeah I hope it's just a slow portion of the course otherwise the wheels could be coming off.

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-Of course it's 'effing hard, it's IRONMAN!
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Not familiar with the course. Seems a tad earlier for the wheels to fall off. We will see shortly.