well, there's that. and it's a bit karmic.

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What are you people, on dope?

—Mr. Hand

JT FTW.

1) he has never lost at this distance.
2) he doesn't know what he doesn't know.
3) he ran down Frodeno at Lanzarote. GTFOH.

"You don't need to tell me I'm right. We'll assume it."

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What are you people, on dope?

—Mr. Hand

Rappstar wrote:

Based on "precedence," only three of the four Americans you listed are possible winners:
...

Those are just some of my random facts collected. I'm sure I've got more. Just need to taper a bit more and they will come to me. Not necessarily worth anything, but fun to just toss around since you guys are all speculating anyway...

Stop guessing, and try to put some real thought behind it.

Hopefully, I get to meet you in Kona!

I can't believe you called Jesse fat.

In all honesty, I can't believe JT is getting so much love for a top performance in Kona. Don't get me wrong, he's a good athlete and I think Jordan points out some good reasons why he won't win in Kona. There's a slight chance he breaks top 10 but I think almost any of the athletes racing on the right day can get in the top 10. My prediction, if he finishes, is maybe a top 15.

Frodo, Kienle, Hoffman - maybe not in that order but that's podium

Women's race is SOOO different. With Joyce out I think it will be Ryf, Rinny and Mel H. or

I'll agree with your women's podium but my men's looks like this:

1. Potts
2. Frodo
3. Kienle

Followed by Hoffman and T.O.

In the women's Piampiano and Wurtle take 4th and 5th.

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http://dontletitdefeatyou.blogspot.com

Full USA sweep:

1. Potts
2. TO
3. The Hoff

1. Frodo
2. Van Lierde
3. McMahon (decided I had to pick a Canadian too)

Men's
1) Frodeno
2) Kienle
3) McMahon

Women's
1) Ryf
2) Wurtele
3) Mel H.

Sorry america.

Pictures of your wife to see if you missing the race is worth it.

I don't necessarily have picks, but I do have some folks that I think are underrated who will do very well:

PODIUM THREAT
- Andi Böcherer
- James Cunnama
- Tim Van Berkel
- Tim Reed (he just won 70.3WC people!)

TOP-5 THREAT (but with a big impact on the race as a whole)
- David Dellow
- David McNamee (fastest run last year)
- Will Clarke

I've not really seen any of the above mentioned as serious contenders, but I would say that I think any one of those guys could make a big impact on the race in much the way that TO last year really affected race dynamics.

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"Non est ad astra mollis e terris via." - Seneca | rappstar.com | FB - Rappstar Racing | IG - @jordanrapp

I picked Cunnama for a podium.
His Embrunman result really shows his solid form in all three disciplines... on a really hot day in the Alpes.

My favorite time of the year and I'm super excited because I'm actually going to witness it in person this year. Every year I tend to think that it's the most stacked field ever, I feel this way about 2016 as well. The beauty of the sport is that there is a handful of guys and girls that on the right day could tear the field apart. As we all know, weather is a factor that can take one set of picks and throw it into the wind. For this reason, I want to predict for both super windy and relatively calm/hot day.


Mens Picks:

Super Windy:

1. Kienle
2. Jan
3. Sanders

Calm/Hot Day

1. Jan
2. Potts
3. Hoffman

Kienle: Is still an uber-biker, let's not forget this fact. Kienle is just becoming a smarter racer and is saving himself to have a better run, which we saw in Frankfurt. On a windy day, Kienle is the man to beat.

Jan- Jan doesn't have a weakness, but who knows what the 3 IM's in one year will yield. By not turning up to worlds, we have to think something is going on. After seeing some instagram pictures, Jan looks cut and ready to repeat. If it's calm and hot, Jan will Waltz away with it.

Sanders- That swim though!!! If this guy could swim, forget about it. A bike/run combination that is arguably the best in the business. Sander's run split was really solid last year (2:50ish?). I think Kona is an awfully long day and he might just outlast the rest.

Potts- Another guy without a weakness, he just does everything super square. The only reason I don't see Potts as the champion is simply because he's never shown us that he can run sub 2:50. In IM Whistler, Potts wasn't challenged at all, so perhaps he has a new run up his sleeve. On a windy day the bike will destroy him, but a calm day could see him get on that podium.

Hoffman- One bad day and we seem to write him off. This dude is pretty polished, plus he hasn't raced an IM since South Africa. The dude can swim, bike, and run with the lead pack. No weaknesses here, I wouldn't be surprised if he proved us all wrong and won the thing.

Womens Picks:

Super Windy:

1. Ryf
2. Carfrae
3. Swallow

Calm/Hot:

1. Carfrae
2. Ryf
3. Hauschildt

Ryf- Let's face it, she's one of the two superpowers in female triathlon. On a windy there's simply no way anybody rides with her. She'll be able to build a cushion that can withstand an Carfrae run bomb.

Carfrae- She's just that much better than everybody else at running, it's not even close. On a calm day she has the bike prowess to minimize the gap. On a windy day, I just don't think she'll be able to pull within Ryf's range. The interesting thing is to think about who Rinny will be riding with this year. Exiting the water close to Rinny will be Wurtele, Jackson, and Hauschildt. We may see a true chase group with this bunch of ladies. I've heard theories of a little Hauschildt/Carfrae Ironwar, but I don't foresee that happening.

Hauschildt- I feel like I just don't know that much about her, but as a Kona rookie it's tough to predict anything for her. Does anybody know how she handles the heat? I know her run is strong and a strong run goes a long way in Ironman, especially in Kona.

Swallow: She just keeps getting stronger. We know she can swim and bike, but it appears the run is taking form. If Swallow sniffs a sub 3 marathon, she's golden. This girl's ability to suffer is second to none, she could definitely make some waves.

Athletes who will make waves:

JT: He hasn't lost an Ironman yet, so there's a feather in his cap. I don't see JT as the broken down and walking type. Strong bike/run, he can easily break the top 10.

Patrick Lange: Not sure how his bike will hold up, because Texas was both short and lacked uber-bikers (Minus starky, who dropped out). Lange's run in Texas was flat out ridiculous! The heat in Texas was brutal and he just effortlessly jaunted to the finish. If Lange hadn't celebrated during the end of Texas, his marathon split would have been 2:38ish (What?).

Raelert: I love him to death, but the lack of run fitness will show. When Raelert showed up in 2014, he bombed it on the marathon and ended up imploding. I'm just not sure he has the fitness level due to injury.

Corbin: She's back and her run is still a weapon, look for her to mow down a lot of people on the run. Top 10, without a doubt.

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Team Zoot 2023

Kienle & Heather Jackson.

I was just about to do the same re: 1) big wind 2) calm wind as it would likely have quite an effect on the results

Big Wind
1. Sanders
2. Kienle
3. Frodo/Potts/Rapp…..maybe skipper

LIght Wind
1. Frodo
2. Kienle
3. any one of the uber swim/runners who can hang on the bike (got a feeling Potts will be there in either set of conditions)

Big Wind
1. Ryf
2. Melissa H
3. Rinny (makes up big ground but too far back)

Light Wind
1. Rinny
2. Ryf
3. MH

People underestimate the limited draft effect in Kona most of the day on the bike at 10m- 12m "IF" (big IF) its a mid/big wind day…..wind is typically cross on most of the course as well. Sanders can make up 10mins on the bike/run combined in those conditions. He can't come close if its a calmer wind which frankly has been the case for quite a few years now.

One of these years we are due for a 2001 type big wind. Would be a much more interesting race if it was.

It's interesting that people are factoring in wind in the race this year. I agree it's a huge factor on the bike. I remember a pro athlete saying about Kona: it's usually really hot or really windy, but never really hot and windy at the same time.

What are people's thoughts if Rinny is down by 15+ minutes into T2? That's a scenario I think may play out this year that influenced my picks.

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

I know she does not have chance for overall but I like to see badman smoke the bike course

Jesse Thomas
Danielle Ryf

Potts
Frodeno
Keinle

Ryf
Mel H.
Rinny

Potts is focused and probably last chance for his big dream. Probably more a hope the a smart prediction.

Ryf is too good all around. Although my hope is to see Rinny run everyone down. Since I have never ran anyone down.

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Team Zoot So Cal

1. Frodo
2. Potts
3. Jesse

Kienle overextended himself at the 70.3 WC. He's not as young as he used to be.

1. Ryf
2. Rinny

My heart says Potts/Rinny.
My mind say Frodo/Ryf.

More than anything, I would love to see Rinny track down Ryf in record fashion for a 2014 type repeat.
As for Potts, he one of the nicest guys I have ever met. I would love to see the big engine take the crown at the big dance.

my podium is mostly comprised of dark horses (except for 3rd) and money is on the steeplechasers: Jesse Thomas and Mel Hauschildt

women:
Mel Hauschildt
Heather Jackson
Daniela Ryf

men:
Jesse Thomas
Lionel Sanders
Frodo

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Are you ready to do an Ultraman? | How I calculate Ironman race fueling | Strength Training for Athletes |

Yeah Potts and Jesse Thomas are my favorites. I hope both have a great day. They always make it interesting.

Thomas and/or Rapp on the podium would be just as thrilling.
Super special talents and individuals. I am grateful we get to hear their thoughts on this forum.

Men: 1. Frodo 2. Sebi 3. Potts.

Women: 1. Ryf 2. Hauschildt 3. Rinny.

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

Men's:
1. Kienle.
2. Potts
3. Sanders

Frodo: something is off this year with him (purely my opinion)

Women's:
1. Haulschildt
2. Carfrae
3. Wuertle

Ryf: Same with Frodo. Not their year.