Yeah Rinny really has no form this year. She doesn't stand a chance.

I saw Rinny absolutely flying past me at Timberman this year. Trust me, there is nothing wrong with her form. She will podium and school the nay-sayers at Kona.

Potts! No gatorskins and looks on a mission. Rinny rebounds.

Rhy and Potts. Rinny to podium

Potts doesn't have the pure speed to compete with Frodeno. Maybe a podium but not the win.

Women's race depends on the gap to T2. In 2014, 14 minutes wasn't even enough........

---

Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

Frodo is going to have a mechanical.

Potts and T.O. Go 1&2 in the men's race

T.O.'s wife wins the women's race

This isnt quite a prediction, but...I'm a bit curious how others see their chances: heather Jackson and Ben hoffman?

Karma's a bitch.

---

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
New Training/Racing Log - http://www.earthdaykid.com/blog --- Old Training/Racing Log - http://colinlaughery.blogspot.com

2 times in 3 years?

---

Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

I'm going for Sebi to beat Jan in a semi-upset this year. Sebi to bridge up to the chase pack early, sit in and let Jan ride the front most of the bike, then stick it to him on the run and Jan crumbles in the heat.

On the womens I'm going for an upset as well, I say Hauschildt beats Rinny. The two going head to head in the marathon, Ryf finishing 3rd after being passed in the last 10k by the other two battling it out.

Yes unfortunately.

I am thinking Kienle first, some dark horse second and Frodo third with Sanders fourth or fifth.

On the women's side I am figuring on an Ironwar late on the run between Ryf and Rinny with either Jackson or Wurtele to round out the podium.

---

A false humanity is used to impose its opposite, by people whose cruelty is equalled only by their arrogance

I think Jesse Thomas is your dark horse. I know Frodo was feeling crappy during Lanzerote, but still.... JT is showing great promise at this distance, going 2 for 2 in very different conditions.

That being said, this is Kona... and it takes a special kind of athlete to win it. So that's why he'll be a wild card in my mind.

It would be nice to see Joe Skipper in the top 5, not sure how the heat will affect his performance though.

1. Callum milward
2. Andrew starykowicz
3. Thomas gerlach

My favorite time of the year :)

I think the men's race is going to be a war

1. Kienle
2. Potts
3. O'Donnell
4. Hoffman
5. Thomas

I think the top five will finish within a five minute time span.

I think Kienle will manage to make the first group on the swim and then, rather than making a break for it on the bike, he just hangs with whatever group forms at the front. I think Sebi will make a bit of a break at the end of the climb up to Hawi and then put a bit of distance between himself and the chase group on the descent (he seems to descend better than everyone else in the field)... try to put everyone else in a bit of pain but then let them catch up... maybe make a break in the last 10k going into T2. Sebi goes out conservatively on the run but Potts tries to run him down. About 10k in there's a 5 second gap and Sebi just does what he has to to maintain that to the end. Why bet on Sebi? He's raced well over the last year, he's arguably entering into the peak of his long-course career, he's improved his swim, and he has experience at Kona. Experience is often under-rated on the Big Island. Personally, I think Frodo will come off the bike near the front but will end up cramping or experiencing some sort of an injury on the run. Just a random gut feeling.

I think the Women's race will be strongly contested as well.

1. Carfrae
2. Jackson
3. Wurtele
4. Hauschdilt
5. Ryf

My theory is Carfrae and Jackson exit the water in the second pack and then stay somewhat near each other on the bike with HJ putting a minute or two into Rinny by the end. Wurtele and Ryf will be out of the water and off the bike near the front but for some reason I suspect Ryf will struggle on the run in a repeat of '14 but, this time, it won't just be Carfrae but also Jackson storming past her. I think Wurtele will have the lead with maybe 8k to go but ultimately succumb to Carfrae.

Here's my predicted men's winner for 2017: Javier Gomez

If Heather Jackson only rides a minute or two faster than Rinny, she is way off the podium.

I think she (HJ) will smash the bike and run tough to finish second. Ryf has had one bad race since the beginning of 2015. She will win.

Same with Frodo. I want to believe in JT, but Frodeno will race too smart to lose. Draft off Potts and pass him in the last 50m so everyone knows who the champ is. Draft off the lead Moto until the train of Sebi, Thomas, Jordan, and hopefully (for the chasers) Lionel come by. Sit in behind JT because he has the biggest wake of that crew.

Then he will drop everyone in the first 10k and cruise to the finish.

The rest of the race is all about the swim. Heather W is my dark horse on the ladies side.

Thomas and Rapp should try to stay on Sebi's feet. Ironically the three of them benefit the most if Sanders doesn't swim like a nervous dentist. The 3 real triathletes bide their time and latch on to Lionel for a free ride to the front. If they catch Frodo by Hawi, it's going to be a fun race. If not, everyone just melts down and Frodo wins with some no-name French dudes filling out the podium.

If a big group starts the run together, the freshest legs will win. So not Sanders. Thomas and Sebi working together-ish may be able to break Frodo. They also may break themselves and open the door for someone else.

---

/kj

http://kjmcawesome.tumblr.com/

I rekon Potts will hit the podium this year. Ill go with 1) Kienle 2) Frodeno 3) Potts...ladies ill go 1) Rinny 2) Ryf 3) Hauschuldt

Frodo and Ryf again.

Massive scheduling error from WTC again. This is the same day as my other half's birthday and we are meant to be going out for dinner and drinks with friends. Luckily we are UK so 11 hours ahead. Best case I miss the first 6 hours. Worst case I miss the first 6 hours and fifteen minutes if she wants birthday nookie. She had better not be expecting an orgasm.

Can't wait...

Men's... I'm going with a longshot podium, outside of Frodo

1. Frodo (he's just too freaking good)
2. Jesse Thomas (sentimental pick, I really like him)
3. Andy Potts (I think his window has closed on a win, but still may have a podium in him)

Women's...

1. Rinny (hope she pulls out another one but it will be tough for her)
2. Ryf (maybe her busy year and late IM keeps her form the top spot)
3. Jackson (I think third can end up being any number of women)

Heather's had a great year with wins in Chattanooga, CdA, and Lake Placid and a strong showing in her first pro appearance in Kona last year.

This year The Hoff had a win at IM S. Africa and a 2nd at 70.3 Buenos Aires.

---

-------------------
Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

I think this will be the year an American wins. In order of likelyhood:

Potts
Hoffman
Tim O
Jesse Thomas


Rinny will run away with the women's title. Rhyf doesn't have much left in the tank.

---

blog

It's interesting you don't have Ryf or Frodo on the podium.

Rappstar did an interview on IMTalk and mentioned that Roth was essentially an add-on 140.6 race for both Jan and Daniela. One extra IM distance race on the body during the season if you will. It's been many weeks since I've been kicking around that theory in my head and it certainly seems like he made a valid point. He pointed to Jan's DNS at the 70.3 WC as an indicator that the season is different from his last.

---

-------------------
Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

It does make one wonder if there is a niggle there that Jan was needing to address .......or perhaps it was just a smart adjustment to his training/racing load to allow recovery before Kona.

Hugh

---

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

If my memory serves me right, yes there was one that Jan brought to light. Whether he got it sorted in time for Kona is the million dollar question.

---

-------------------
Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

I think the winner comes from this group. Just depends on who has the best day.

Jan
Sebi
Jesse
Andy


Darkhorse:
Patrick Lange. Dude ran a 2:40 in ridiculous heat at IMTX. If it's not too windy on the bike and he can sit in he's got a chance.

He appears to have sorted out his position on the bike, so he could definitely be a threat.

Cupcakes on the bike.

at 29mph.... on continental supersonics lol

I understanding people thinking Frodeno might have dipped into his reserves a bit too much this year as a reason, but the heat, I think he's shown in Frankfurt & Kona last year that that's simply not an issue.

You could argue going 7:49 in 104 degrees in early July (Frankfurt) is not very different to going 7:35 a week later in cooler temperatures this year; the run surface is much easier on the legs in Roth too.

I guess we'll see soon enough, or rather schauen wir mal....

---

29 years and counting

I think Heather Wurtele is a great shout for a women's podium. She has been on the island for 3-4 weeks now and had two-three weeks in Australia before that. Doing tons of session in the race conditions (heat and wind).

Minimal travel close to the race. In the right time zone and acclimatized.

Without seeing any TUE's for the Pro triathlon fields I'm going with these picks as my gut feeling.


Pro Men

1. Jan Frodeno
2. Sebastian Kienle
3. Brent McMahon

Pro Women

1. Melissa Hauschildt
2. Heather Jackson
3. Mirinda Carfrae

---

------
"Train so you have no regrets @ the finish line"

You know that if Potts does not run gatorskins and flats he is going to go every slowtwitchers home and kick them in the ass....


..

---

Once, I was fast. But I got over it.

Rinny or Ryf for women. I don't think two of them know which one will win.

Someone entirely new for men. Again.

LOL

Ryf is overraced in my opinion....look at her performance at the 70.3 WC. I'm going with Rinny FTW.

rinny
mel hauschildt
ryf

I'm rooting for Potts all the way, but if Jan has an "on" day, he's tough to beat:

Jan
Potts
Kienle

Men:
1. Kienle
2. Jan F
3. Potts
sleeper: FVL

Women:
1.Ryf
2. Jackson
Rinny DNF, again.

Based on "precedence," only three of the four Americans you listed are possible winners:
- Potts & TO both meet the "previous year's top-4" requirement which has been true EVERY year, except when a prior winner who DNF'ed the prior year - e.g. Stadler 2005 - won; and Stadler is the only one in the past 20+ years to pull off outside-top-4-and-then-win. Mark Allen in 1995 was the last time this happened before.

Most prior winners have only won again after placing in the top-4 the previous year: Reid 2003 (2nd 2002), Macca 2010 (4th 2009), Crowie 2011 (4th 2010). And that's just going back to 2000 (because I'm lazy). Overwhelmingly, the winner comes out of the prior year's top-4. Given Raelert's injury, and Pott's age (he'd be the oldest winner by a year but the oldest first time winner but substantially more than that; I'm fairly certain Mark Allen and Crowie both won at 38 - might be 37 - but both had won multiple times before), you have to think that TO is the most likely candidate. With that said, Tim's top-10 finishes in Kona have ALWAYS come after he's had a strong early season Ironman (2nd Brazil 2015, 1st Brazil 2013, 2nd CdA 2012); the fact that he struggled in Frankfurt is not necessarily indicative of anything, except that - as I said on IMTalk regarding Jan - you do tend to see trends of how athlete's prepare over the course of a season when they do well.

- Jesse meets the "rookie" requirement, but remember, ONLY Luc Van Lierde won as a rookie on the men's side. Betting that you are next LVL is a big ask. On the plus side, Jesse has NEVER lost an Ironman. On the down side, he's never even finished an Ironman where the high temperature was above about 75F (maybe even 70F). So the difference - from a weather standpoint between Wales & Lanzarote, which was atypically cold this year, and Kona is huge. On the plus side, Jesse's biggest win ever - Wildflower #1 - came as a rookie. On the downside, he'd be the heaviest winner since Macca 2010.

Other "data" points:
- Sebastian would be the first person to come from inside the top-10 but outside the top-4 to win the race. Mark Allen 1995 and Stadler 2005 were both DNFs (maybe Mark was a DNS?). But also note that in each of the past two years, the Kona winner has also been the Frankfurt winner. And, overall, the winner at IM Frankfurt tends to do VERY well in Kona. The men's winner in Roth, on the other hand, has not done as well, which - I think - ties into the next little factoid...

- Jan could win, but no one except Hellriegel has raced 3x140.6 in a year and won. On the bright side for Jan, NO ONE has ever WON 3x140.6 IM including the WC in a year - Hellriegel was 4th in Austria (I think) the year that he raced 3 fulls and then won in Kona. As far as his "WR" performance, Andreas Raelert did NOT win Kona the year he set the prior "World Record" in Roth.

Those are just some of my random facts collected. I'm sure I've got more. Just need to taper a bit more and they will come to me. Not necessarily worth anything, but fun to just toss around since you guys are all speculating anyway...

---

"Non est ad astra mollis e terris via." - Seneca | rappstar.com | FB - Rappstar Racing | IG - @jordanrapp

I aware of everything you state above. I listed Jesse last on the list for those very reasons and the fact he will have to play catch up on the bike. If I was a betting man, I would not bet on him for all those reasons. But he seems to defy odds so I'm not ready to completely write him off.

Sebi and Jan are going to be hard to beat, no doubt. Everyone will have their work cut out for them. I just think there are a solid couple of americans who have the experience and have put all their cards into kona the last few years. I think it's time.....

---

blog

I'll take

1) Sanders
2) Frodeno
3) Kienle

1) Ryf
2) Hauschildt
3) Carfrae

Lol, good stuff.

---

---

Save: $50 on Speed Hound Recovery Boots | $20 on Air Relax| $100 on Normatec| 15% on Most Absorbable Magnesium

Blogs: Best CHEAP Zwift / Bike Trainer Desk | Theragun G3 vs $140 Bivi Percussive Massager | Normatec Pulse 2.0 vs Normatec Pulse | Speed Hound vs Normatec | Air Relax vs Normatec | Q1 2018 Blood Test Results | | Why HED JET+ Is The BEST value wheelset

Please be Jesse, breath some fun back into this sport, and no I'm not trolling.

---

All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.

Nobody is going to beat Frodeno unless he has a mechanical.
The podium spots are hard to call...
Watch for Cunnama though, he's been on a tear lately.

Ryf will be rested enough. I guarantee she went into 70.3 WC tired.
Her run has improved this year. She will take the lead at 40 miles and never look back.
Rinny will run into second.
Lester, for third. Really under-rated. Has had some seriously fast results this year though.

My 2 cents, McMahon, Hoffman, and van Berkel are getting underrated here for a podium spot. At least one of them. Jan or sebi for the win. Sanders barely cracks top 10.

Ryf rested a bit from a lousy worlds after too much racing and takes it. Don't know for second, but rinny runs into third or fourth.

I think that there's one other American with a pretty good shot to do well. But I'm biased...

---

"Non est ad astra mollis e terris via." - Seneca | rappstar.com | FB - Rappstar Racing | IG - @jordanrapp

Whooooooo I love you bro !!!!! :D kona 2016!!

Hey I put you on my list!!

"Thomas and Rapp should try to stay on Sebi's feet. Ironically the three of them benefit the most if Sanders doesn't swim like a nervous dentist. The 3 real triathletes bide their time and latch on to Lionel for a free ride to the front. If they catch Frodo by Hawi, it's going to be a fun race."

Race fast. Take chances. I think finishing first will be significantly more rewarding than finishing not first.

---

/kj

http://kjmcawesome.tumblr.com/

Kienle
Frodo
Thomas
Rappstar
Viennot

Carfrae
Wurtele
Ryf

well, there's that. and it's a bit karmic.

---

_____________________________________
What are you people, on dope?

—Mr. Hand

JT FTW.

1) he has never lost at this distance.
2) he doesn't know what he doesn't know.
3) he ran down Frodeno at Lanzarote. GTFOH.

"You don't need to tell me I'm right. We'll assume it."

---

_____________________________________
What are you people, on dope?

—Mr. Hand

Rappstar wrote:

Based on "precedence," only three of the four Americans you listed are possible winners:
...

Those are just some of my random facts collected. I'm sure I've got more. Just need to taper a bit more and they will come to me. Not necessarily worth anything, but fun to just toss around since you guys are all speculating anyway...

Stop guessing, and try to put some real thought behind it.

Hopefully, I get to meet you in Kona!

I can't believe you called Jesse fat.

In all honesty, I can't believe JT is getting so much love for a top performance in Kona. Don't get me wrong, he's a good athlete and I think Jordan points out some good reasons why he won't win in Kona. There's a slight chance he breaks top 10 but I think almost any of the athletes racing on the right day can get in the top 10. My prediction, if he finishes, is maybe a top 15.

Frodo, Kienle, Hoffman - maybe not in that order but that's podium

Women's race is SOOO different. With Joyce out I think it will be Ryf, Rinny and Mel H. or

I'll agree with your women's podium but my men's looks like this:

1. Potts
2. Frodo
3. Kienle

Followed by Hoffman and T.O.

In the women's Piampiano and Wurtle take 4th and 5th.

---

------------------
http://dontletitdefeatyou.blogspot.com

Full USA sweep:

1. Potts
2. TO
3. The Hoff

1. Frodo
2. Van Lierde
3. McMahon (decided I had to pick a Canadian too)

Men's
1) Frodeno
2) Kienle
3) McMahon

Women's
1) Ryf
2) Wurtele
3) Mel H.

Sorry america.

Pictures of your wife to see if you missing the race is worth it.

I don't necessarily have picks, but I do have some folks that I think are underrated who will do very well:

PODIUM THREAT
- Andi Böcherer
- James Cunnama
- Tim Van Berkel
- Tim Reed (he just won 70.3WC people!)

TOP-5 THREAT (but with a big impact on the race as a whole)
- David Dellow
- David McNamee (fastest run last year)
- Will Clarke

I've not really seen any of the above mentioned as serious contenders, but I would say that I think any one of those guys could make a big impact on the race in much the way that TO last year really affected race dynamics.

---

"Non est ad astra mollis e terris via." - Seneca | rappstar.com | FB - Rappstar Racing | IG - @jordanrapp

I picked Cunnama for a podium.
His Embrunman result really shows his solid form in all three disciplines... on a really hot day in the Alpes.

My favorite time of the year and I'm super excited because I'm actually going to witness it in person this year. Every year I tend to think that it's the most stacked field ever, I feel this way about 2016 as well. The beauty of the sport is that there is a handful of guys and girls that on the right day could tear the field apart. As we all know, weather is a factor that can take one set of picks and throw it into the wind. For this reason, I want to predict for both super windy and relatively calm/hot day.


Mens Picks:

Super Windy:

1. Kienle
2. Jan
3. Sanders

Calm/Hot Day

1. Jan
2. Potts
3. Hoffman

Kienle: Is still an uber-biker, let's not forget this fact. Kienle is just becoming a smarter racer and is saving himself to have a better run, which we saw in Frankfurt. On a windy day, Kienle is the man to beat.

Jan- Jan doesn't have a weakness, but who knows what the 3 IM's in one year will yield. By not turning up to worlds, we have to think something is going on. After seeing some instagram pictures, Jan looks cut and ready to repeat. If it's calm and hot, Jan will Waltz away with it.

Sanders- That swim though!!! If this guy could swim, forget about it. A bike/run combination that is arguably the best in the business. Sander's run split was really solid last year (2:50ish?). I think Kona is an awfully long day and he might just outlast the rest.

Potts- Another guy without a weakness, he just does everything super square. The only reason I don't see Potts as the champion is simply because he's never shown us that he can run sub 2:50. In IM Whistler, Potts wasn't challenged at all, so perhaps he has a new run up his sleeve. On a windy day the bike will destroy him, but a calm day could see him get on that podium.

Hoffman- One bad day and we seem to write him off. This dude is pretty polished, plus he hasn't raced an IM since South Africa. The dude can swim, bike, and run with the lead pack. No weaknesses here, I wouldn't be surprised if he proved us all wrong and won the thing.

Womens Picks:

Super Windy:

1. Ryf
2. Carfrae
3. Swallow

Calm/Hot:

1. Carfrae
2. Ryf
3. Hauschildt

Ryf- Let's face it, she's one of the two superpowers in female triathlon. On a windy there's simply no way anybody rides with her. She'll be able to build a cushion that can withstand an Carfrae run bomb.

Carfrae- She's just that much better than everybody else at running, it's not even close. On a calm day she has the bike prowess to minimize the gap. On a windy day, I just don't think she'll be able to pull within Ryf's range. The interesting thing is to think about who Rinny will be riding with this year. Exiting the water close to Rinny will be Wurtele, Jackson, and Hauschildt. We may see a true chase group with this bunch of ladies. I've heard theories of a little Hauschildt/Carfrae Ironwar, but I don't foresee that happening.

Hauschildt- I feel like I just don't know that much about her, but as a Kona rookie it's tough to predict anything for her. Does anybody know how she handles the heat? I know her run is strong and a strong run goes a long way in Ironman, especially in Kona.

Swallow: She just keeps getting stronger. We know she can swim and bike, but it appears the run is taking form. If Swallow sniffs a sub 3 marathon, she's golden. This girl's ability to suffer is second to none, she could definitely make some waves.

Athletes who will make waves:

JT: He hasn't lost an Ironman yet, so there's a feather in his cap. I don't see JT as the broken down and walking type. Strong bike/run, he can easily break the top 10.

Patrick Lange: Not sure how his bike will hold up, because Texas was both short and lacked uber-bikers (Minus starky, who dropped out). Lange's run in Texas was flat out ridiculous! The heat in Texas was brutal and he just effortlessly jaunted to the finish. If Lange hadn't celebrated during the end of Texas, his marathon split would have been 2:38ish (What?).

Raelert: I love him to death, but the lack of run fitness will show. When Raelert showed up in 2014, he bombed it on the marathon and ended up imploding. I'm just not sure he has the fitness level due to injury.

Corbin: She's back and her run is still a weapon, look for her to mow down a lot of people on the run. Top 10, without a doubt.

---

Team Zoot 2023

Kienle & Heather Jackson.

I was just about to do the same re: 1) big wind 2) calm wind as it would likely have quite an effect on the results

Big Wind
1. Sanders
2. Kienle
3. Frodo/Potts/Rapp…..maybe skipper

LIght Wind
1. Frodo
2. Kienle
3. any one of the uber swim/runners who can hang on the bike (got a feeling Potts will be there in either set of conditions)

Big Wind
1. Ryf
2. Melissa H
3. Rinny (makes up big ground but too far back)

Light Wind
1. Rinny
2. Ryf
3. MH

People underestimate the limited draft effect in Kona most of the day on the bike at 10m- 12m "IF" (big IF) its a mid/big wind day…..wind is typically cross on most of the course as well. Sanders can make up 10mins on the bike/run combined in those conditions. He can't come close if its a calmer wind which frankly has been the case for quite a few years now.

One of these years we are due for a 2001 type big wind. Would be a much more interesting race if it was.

It's interesting that people are factoring in wind in the race this year. I agree it's a huge factor on the bike. I remember a pro athlete saying about Kona: it's usually really hot or really windy, but never really hot and windy at the same time.

What are people's thoughts if Rinny is down by 15+ minutes into T2? That's a scenario I think may play out this year that influenced my picks.

---

-------------------
Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

I know she does not have chance for overall but I like to see badman smoke the bike course

Jesse Thomas
Danielle Ryf

Potts
Frodeno
Keinle

Ryf
Mel H.
Rinny

Potts is focused and probably last chance for his big dream. Probably more a hope the a smart prediction.

Ryf is too good all around. Although my hope is to see Rinny run everyone down. Since I have never ran anyone down.

---

Team Zoot So Cal

1. Frodo
2. Potts
3. Jesse

Kienle overextended himself at the 70.3 WC. He's not as young as he used to be.

1. Ryf
2. Rinny

My heart says Potts/Rinny.
My mind say Frodo/Ryf.

More than anything, I would love to see Rinny track down Ryf in record fashion for a 2014 type repeat.
As for Potts, he one of the nicest guys I have ever met. I would love to see the big engine take the crown at the big dance.

my podium is mostly comprised of dark horses (except for 3rd) and money is on the steeplechasers: Jesse Thomas and Mel Hauschildt

women:
Mel Hauschildt
Heather Jackson
Daniela Ryf

men:
Jesse Thomas
Lionel Sanders
Frodo

---

____________________________________

Are you ready to do an Ultraman? | How I calculate Ironman race fueling | Strength Training for Athletes |

Yeah Potts and Jesse Thomas are my favorites. I hope both have a great day. They always make it interesting.

Thomas and/or Rapp on the podium would be just as thrilling.
Super special talents and individuals. I am grateful we get to hear their thoughts on this forum.

Men: 1. Frodo 2. Sebi 3. Potts.

Women: 1. Ryf 2. Hauschildt 3. Rinny.

---

"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

Men's:
1. Kienle.
2. Potts
3. Sanders

Frodo: something is off this year with him (purely my opinion)

Women's:
1. Haulschildt
2. Carfrae
3. Wuertle

Ryf: Same with Frodo. Not their year.

M- kienle, Jan, Potts
W- Rinna, Ryf, Jackson

Men:
1 - Lance
2 - Lieto
3 - Macco

Women
1 - Chrissie
2 - Rinny
3 - Cave

Oh wait, what year is this.......

Men
1 - Kienle
2 - Frodo
3 - Potts

Women
1 - Ryf
2 - Rinny
3 - Hauschildt

Frodeno
Potts
Reed

Jackson
Carfrae
Gajer

Current forecast for Saturday is for showers and a high of 84º. I'd say that changes the race dynamics immensely. It gives guys like McMahon and Sanders a much better chance of a podium. Anyone know why Vanhoenacker isn't racing this year?

---

-------------------
Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

After his last not so stellar race in Kona, Marino vowed to not return. Things have never gone that well for him there even when he's seemed to have had a really excellent lead up. If it does top out at 84*F versus the 89 of last year it will definitely make for a much less oppressive race for everyone.

Hugh

---

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

which is funny, cus he did well at imchoo last week

Which is actually kind of sad. He won a race in wayyyy hotter conditions than Kona will be by 7 minutes.

---

-------------------
Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

Humidity and heat are not the same thing.

The weather in Kona is perfect.

That is, unless you are trying to run a marathon in the afternoon sun.
(Then it feels like your stuck in Roseanne Barr's a#. And smells like it too - but thats just you).

 
Bozzone, Jan, Sebi, McKenzie. Haven't picked out order yet. Lets go NZL. Southern Hemisphere domination in top 10 this year.



Rinne, Ryf, Hauschildt

He got tired of Greg Welch butchering the pronunciation of his name.

M- Potts
Kienle

W- Ryf
Carfrae

I'd really like to see Andy win one, Depending on how she recovered from a heavy race load this year I just don't see how Carfrae can hang with Ryf. Of course I'm a noob and don't really know $hit !

I remember that interview he gave. If this year is indeed the coolest in recent history that guy is going to be kicking himself though.

Cooler temps will open really open up the race across the board IMO. Fast athletes will still be fast, but there could be a lot of surprises.

---

-------------------
Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

Men's race I predict a boring race: Frodeno, Reed, Hoffman.
Women's race I think it will be a classic: Carfrae, Hauschild, Wurtele.

I think the men's race will be similar to last year, Kienle will bridge to the front group but will go too hard, so lose it big time on the run. Reed and Hoffman will run more conservatively and be happy with podium places. (2nd and 3rd could be almost anyone!)

Women's race will see Ryf in the front group of the swim, Rinny a couple of minutes back and Hauschild even further back. Hauschild will pass Rinny late on the bike, Ryf won't make up much time on Rinny, and will lose time on Hauschild on the bike. Ryf starts the run, maybe Swallow will be with her, but she will only with a 5-8 minute advantage over the 2 runners. She goes out hard but starts losing time, pushes and blows up. Rinny runs by Hauschild late on in a 2:50 run. Wurtele inherits 3rd place from a broken Ryf.

Weather updated to 92ºF Saturday. Little different than 84º lol.

---

-------------------
Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

Has anyone brought up TO or Hoffman? Yeah, I'm American, but they look solid and mentally they are ready. USA sweep.

To use a Macca quote "When Crowie won, he was built like a brick sh*thouse." They both look like "a brick sh*house" at the moment.

If I'm using that theory:

Hoffman
TO
Potts
_____

Sanders
Frodo
Don
Kienle
Bozzone

Bigger payout if the odds aren't in my favor, eh. Haven't paid much attention to the Women this year. I'll pick the ladies I like the best. If you have a beer sponsor, you're No 1 in my book.

Corbin
Jackson
Kessler

---

"The person on top of the mountain didn't fall there." - unkown

also rule 5

Women: Rinny, Ryf, Wurtele
Men: Kinele, McMahon, Frodeno

Women
1) Hauschildt
2) Carfrae
3) Ryf

Men
1) Frodo
2) McMahon
3) Kinele

1. Ryf
2. Jackson
3. Carfrae


1. Frodeno
2. Kienle
3. Thomas

---

----------------------------
Jason
None of the secrets of success will work unless you do.

Men:

Kienle
Frodeno
Vanlierde (boy is he fit) surprises people Saturday

Women:
Ryf in a land slide (anyone that says she isn't as fit as last year is clueless).
Mel H
Mary Beth in her swan song

I hope he eats something after the race

M-T.O., Kienle, Potts

W. Carfee, Ryf, Wurtele

Jesus. He looks like he has full blown AIDS.

I've read that about 5 times now (stupid IPhone update), and laugh each time

Men:

Frodo can hang with Potts for the swim, that says to me Potts won't win. Anything can happen I guess.

Raelert (I just like him)
Frodo
Keinle

McMahon/Sanders are in the top ten

Women:

The 70.3 worlds worries me but Ryf is too good not to podium (I think)
Carfrae
Wurtele
Ryf

---

Dan Mayberry
Amateur a lot of things, professional a few things.

Is being built like a brick shit house weighing around 68kgs at 1.8m? for Craig Alexander...

How heavy was Macca really when he won Kona? His legs are solid but his upper body always looked manorexic with his ribs showing through his chest etc.

Maybe at 3% body fat it is? I just remember the quote from an interview. These are ironman triathletes we are taking about, not swimmers or rowers after all.

---

"The person on top of the mountain didn't fall there." - unkown

also rule 5

except choo was 97 with 87 humidity.. heat index peaked to 165 in the shade race day... i mean, if that's not kona conditions, idk what is...

Anyone got all the picks right last Kona??

Having watched a few of the Babbitt interviews it seems that none of the other pro men have any idea how to beat Frodo. He can swim/ride/run at the front and up the pace whenever he feels like it. Either you go all in and risk walking or stay with him and end up on the podium if you run well.

The woman's race will be far more exciting, shame Lucy Charles isn't racing as she would have two minutes on Jodie coming out of the water, and force a super fast first 40km on the bike by the chasers. Nonetheless, cooler conditions will help the larger girls as they'll be able to go harder on the bike, especially down from Hawi. Plus they'll be able to run better so Rinni might be more than 15 minutes back starting the run. I suspect Mel will profit and make up a slight deficit from the last 40km on the bike, when Ryf usually opens it up, to take the win. Whatever happens Ryf, Jodie and Rinni are going to hurt themselves.

SteveMc

Men:

1. Jan Frodeno: 8:09
2. Jessee Thomas: 8:12
3. Sebi Kienle: 8:14
4. Lionel Sanders 8:15
5. Andreas Raelert: 8:19

Women:

1. Rinny: 8:58
2: Jackson: 9:05
3. Ryf: 9:08
4. Gajer: 9:11
5. Swallow: 9:12

I don't remember for sure but it's doubtful.

This year will be unique because all the picks seem to be in one thread.

---

-------------------
Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

Men - Frodeno, Potts, McMahon

Women - Ryf, Jackson, Swallow

But, what do I know?

Everyone knows who the hot favorites are. I Won't list them, although I will say that out of the "statistical favorites" I have a lot more faith than most of you about Potts. I will not be surprised if he wins this race tomorrow.

Here are my picks of people who I think will surprise the ST crowd in order of decreasing likelihood of a top-3 finish:

FVL (why is nobody picking him!? This is Macca 2010 all over again)
McMahon
Andi B
Cunnama
Terenzo
McNamee

Hate to list the whole field but I have to mention Tim Don as well because nobody else has.

---

---

@EddyRoche
www.eddyroche.com

Men
1. Frodeno
2. Kienle
3. McMahon
4. Potts
5. Van Lierde

Women
1. Carfrae
2. Haushchildt
3. Ryf
4. Swallow
5. Cheetham

I feel like we might see a 2010 Macca (under the radar) performance from...
McKenzie
FVL
Bozzone

And Badmann is finishing her career at Kona, how far up will she finish?

I'm really curious to see how Thomas does. I think ODonnells chance was last year, but I could very well be wrong. If Potts has a race like he did last year, with those new tires he might be able to pul it off.

Everyone seems ready to go, no major news breaks of crashes, illness, or injury this week. Tomorrow should be awesome, looking for a great finish from the energy lab back home from both sides.

I didn't put Potts in my top 3 but, like you, I wouldn't be surprised if he won.

---

----------------------------
Jason
None of the secrets of success will work unless you do.

Meh, the forecast is usually the same every day: 85 and showers. But the showers are usually up in the mountains (or in Hawi like we had last year).

Turned out to be 90 on race day last year. Right now the iphone says 88 tomorrow.

---

Proud Member of Chris McDonald's 2018 Big Sexy Race Team "That which doesn't kill me, will only make me stronger"
Blog-Twitter-Instagram-Race Reports - 2018 Races: IM Florida 70.3, IM Raleigh 70.3, IM 70.3 World Championships - South Africa, IM North Carolina 70.3

Frodo
Keinle
Potts

Ryf
Rinny
Haushchildt

Seems like a dark horse almost always sneaks onto the podium at the last minute of this race.




TOP 6 Pro Men - Finish
1 8:06:30 Jan Frodeno
2 8:10:02 3:33 Sebastian Kienle
3 8:11:14 4:45 Patrick Lange
4 8:13:00 6:31 Ben Hoffman
5 8:13:25 6:56 Andi Boecherer
6 8:16:20 9:51 Tim O'Donnell


TOP 6 Pro Women - Finish
1 8:46:46 Daniela Ryf
2 9:10:30 23:44 Mirinda Carfrae
3 9:11:32 24:47 Heather Jackson
4 9:14:26 27:40 Anja Beranek
5 9:15:40 28:54 Kaisa Lehtonen
6 9:19:05 32:19 Michelle Vesterby

---

-------------------
Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

I should have taken my Frodo/Ryf prediction to Vegas. Would have made like $5 if I put $1000 down. Easiest parlay ever.

They each seemed mortal one (1) day in 2016.

Would love to know more about what happened to Potts. Crashed heading into T2? Is it too soon to make "too much time on the trainer" jokes? Speaking of the indoor Canadian Wonder. Where are all the Sanders apologists?

I was really rooting for Thomas, but it seems like he lost contact coming back from Hawi. I blame Lionel for this too - fully expected Sanders to drag a train to the front before the turnaround.

Really curious to see what the athletes have to say in terms of how the race played out, as apparently covering anything other than the lead rider is way too much to ask. Maybe there should be 2 viewing options: Free to watch Ryf lead for 8 hours, or $5 to see what the F is actually playing out behind her.

---

/kj

http://kjmcawesome.tumblr.com/

kjmcawesome wrote:

Would love to know more about what happened to Potts. Crashed heading into T2? Is it too soon to make "too much time on the trainer" jokes? Speaking of the indoor Canadian Wonder. Where are all the Sanders apologists?

Potts did crash and I assume it was in the chute leading into t2 but I haven't seen the footage. I'm sure that took a lot out of of his run legs. Looking at the live blog, he was at the back of the lead überbike pack at +0:31 at mile 87 and fell off the group and by mile 99 was +2:55. One could argue that the race starting taking its toll right about there.

I'll eat crow for not picking Rinny on the podium. She was down something like 22 minutes out of t2 and ran her way into second. I didn't think that this year the women would give up so much time on the run like that. Props to her for running onto the podium and props to Ryf for the course record.

Amazing debut performance by Patrick Lange who got a penalty yet cranked out the fastest marathon in Kona history at 2:39:45 and ran through over 10 pros to claw his way onto the podium.

---

-------------------
Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

5/6 on theach podium but not in the right order

5/6 on theach podium but not in the right order

At the horse race track you lose all your money, me I won both mens and Womens exactas. Although I lost my trifectas..)-;

Jesse's race report.

I picked Kienle and Heather Jackson. Both got on the podium. Close but that doesn't count.