JackStraw13 wrote:
dalava wrote:
With today’s result at Cagliari, is Gwen’s quest for the Olympic spot effectively over?Triathlon Forum
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Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [JackStraw13]
[ In reply to ]
When does USAT have to make the final decision.
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [Ajax Bay]
[ In reply to ]
Ajax Bay wrote:
JackStraw13 wrote:
dalava wrote:
With today’s result at Cagliari, is Gwen’s quest for the Olympic spot effectively over?lisa tertsch made a case for gwen...
and katie did not really show anything special
with spivey as clear no 2 in the relay you could almost go operation moonshot in the solo race with gwen
iam not saying this will or should happen but that is surely something that will be discussed at the final meeting.
at least with gwen you have a 1 percenter chance for a medal. lets say there was a crash in the lead pack.
the only thing that is clear is that rappaport is not going to paris.
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [pk]
[ In reply to ]
pk wrote:
Ajax Bay wrote:
JackStraw13 wrote:
dalava wrote:
With today’s result at Cagliari, is Gwen’s quest for the Olympic spot effectively over?lisa tertsch made a case for gwen...
and katie did not really show anything special
with spivey as clear no 2 in the relay you could almost go operation moonshot in the solo race with gwen
iam not saying this will or should happen but that is surely something that will be discussed at the final meeting.
at least with gwen you have a 1 percenter chance for a medal. lets say there was a crash in the lead pack.
the only thing that is clear is that rappaport is not going to paris.
Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [pk]
[ In reply to ]
Not really sure why you think Lisa terstch made a case for Gwen
Have you looked back at Lisa Tertsch results
She was 4th in the grand final and 9th in Paris test event. If anything, Yokohama was a bad race for Lisa.
Have you looked back at Lisa Tertsch results
She was 4th in the grand final and 9th in Paris test event. If anything, Yokohama was a bad race for Lisa.
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [Ajax Bay]
[ In reply to ]
Ajax Bay wrote:
JackStraw13 wrote:
dalava wrote:
With today’s result at Cagliari, is Gwen’s quest for the Olympic spot effectively over?persuasive? it really depends what's the target here.
Only US woman able to have a shot at podium in the run race that will be in Paris is Gwen. If they're looking for potential top 10s then they have plenty choice with Katie, KK and Spivey.
Knibb and Spivey deserve the spot head and shoulders ahead of the others, but for the third spot I think there's still a case for Gwen. Let's remember that for NOCs being 4th or being 15th is the same, they need medals.
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [sidelined]
[ In reply to ]
sidelined wrote:
Not really sure why you think Lisa terstch made a case for Gwen Have you looked back at Lisa Tertsch results
She was 4th in the grand final and 9th in Paris test event. If anything, Yokohama was a bad race for Lisa.
Check who said in the ITU thread that tertsch will have won a world series race within 2 years time ...
So I can insure you I know tertch s results for many years.
But also
26th in Valencia Gwen won I seem to rember
23 rd Hamburg
You also saw that millner was a lot better in Cagliari than Yoko
And then the Yoko female winner was 25 th or so yesterday.
And for sure nobody is to consider millner and Jorgenson for the relay but
What is your problem with the 1 percent chance to be considert in the meeting ....
They have to consider every scenario .
And then in my mind come to the conclusion Gwen's bike is not good enough 99 out of 100 races
But at the same time Katie's run seems not good enough for a medal either and her swim was not bombproof yesterday .
I was interested to see Katie race but she was given a favour to race and has not really made use of it .
I appreciated her fighting spirit but that was not really better than Kasper in Yoko.
If it was me I would go with Kasper she earned the third slot and nobody made really a better case for herself,To sub her out . And she had a clear front pack swim and bike in the last 2 races.
Should they need an alternate
IAM of the opinion selectors should get as little involved as possible and if knowbody makes a clear case, you go with the people that earn the slot.
.
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [pier87]
[ In reply to ]
pier87 wrote:
Ajax Bay wrote:
JackStraw13 wrote:
dalava wrote:
With today’s result at Cagliari, is Gwen’s quest for the Olympic spot effectively over?persuasive? it really depends what's the target here.
Only US woman able to have a shot at podium in the run race that will be in Paris is Gwen. If they're looking for potential top 10s then they have plenty choice with Katie, KK and Spivey.
Knibb and Spivey deserve the spot head and shoulders ahead of the others, but for the third spot I think there's still a case for Gwen. Let's remember that for NOCs being 4th or being 15th is the same, they need medals.
There's no case for Gwen. Her results in WTCS races (World Cups are irrelevant because the Olympics will be a WTCS field of the best women fully tapered) since 2016 are:
Cagliari 2023: lapped out
Hamburg 2023: 30th
Sunderland 2023: 24th
Pontevedra 2023: 43rd
Yokohama 2024: 15th (and half of the top women were missing because they were racing Cagliari)
Those are not the results of someone who has any shot at medaling. 1% is 1% too high. Yokohama was her final exam and she failed it. She knows it, which is why she now is posting about marathons.
Katie Zaferes, the reigning Olympic bronze medalist, has these results during the same time period (and also is returning from having a baby 2 years ago so that defense gets canceled out):
Cagliari 2023: 12th
Montreal 2023: 5th
Hamburg 2023: 18th
Test Event 2023: 12th
Pontevedra 2023: 19th
Cagliari 2024: 12th
More importantly, she was in these races with swims and bikes (and transitions) that were competitive. Gwen was never even remotely in any of these races. You don't get picked for the Olympics when you have not even been close to competing in a WTCS race for 8 years. The argument that Gwen can win if there is a massive crash that takes out 20 women is beyond preposterous. You can say that about just about anyone.
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [pk]
[ In reply to ]
pk wrote:
sidelined wrote:
Not really sure why you think Lisa terstch made a case for Gwen Have you looked back at Lisa Tertsch results
She was 4th in the grand final and 9th in Paris test event. If anything, Yokohama was a bad race for Lisa.
Lol
Check who said in the ITU thread that tertsch will have won a world series race within 2 years time ...
So I can insure you I know tertch s results for many years.
But also
26th in Valencia Gwen won I seem to rember
23 rd Hamburg
You also saw that millner was a lot better in Cagliari than Yoko
And then the Yoko female winner was 25 th or so yesterday.
And for sure nobody is to consider millner and Jorgenson for the relay but
What is your problem with the 1 percent chance to be considert in the meeting ....
They have to consider every scenario .
And then in my mind come to the conclusion Gwen's bike is not good enough 99 out of 100 races
But at the same time Katie's run seems not good enough for a medal either and her swim was not bombproof yesterday .
I was interested to see Katie race but she was given a favour to race and has not really made use of it .
I appreciated her fighting spirit but that was not really better than Kasper in Yoko.
If it was me I would go with Kasper she earned the third slot and nobody made really a better case for herself,To sub her out . And she had a clear front pack swim and bike in the last 2 races.
Should they need an alternate
IAM of the opinion selectors should get as little involved as possible and if knowbody makes a clear case, you go with the people that earn the slot.
.
I agree in principle with your argument but GBR have Yee so there is no case to support Milner.
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [mag900]
[ In reply to ]
mag900 wrote:
pier87 wrote:
Ajax Bay wrote:
JackStraw13 wrote:
dalava wrote:
With today’s result at Cagliari, is Gwen’s quest for the Olympic spot effectively over?persuasive? it really depends what's the target here.
Only US woman able to have a shot at podium in the run race that will be in Paris is Gwen. If they're looking for potential top 10s then they have plenty choice with Katie, KK and Spivey.
Knibb and Spivey deserve the spot head and shoulders ahead of the others, but for the third spot I think there's still a case for Gwen. Let's remember that for NOCs being 4th or being 15th is the same, they need medals.
There's no case for Gwen. Her results in WTCS races (World Cups are irrelevant because the Olympics will be a WTCS field of the best women fully tapered) since 2016 are:
Cagliari 2023: lapped out
Hamburg 2023: 30th
Sunderland 2023: 24th
Pontevedra 2023: 43rd
Yokohama 2024: 15th (and half of the top women were missing because they were racing Cagliari)
Those are not the results of someone who has any shot at medaling. 1% is 1% too high. Yokohama was her final exam and she failed it. She knows it, which is why she now is posting about marathons.
Katie Zaferes, the reigning Olympic bronze medalist, has these results during the same time period (and also is returning from having a baby 2 years ago so that defense gets canceled out):
Cagliari 2023: 12th
Montreal 2023: 5th
Hamburg 2023: 18th
Test Event 2023: 12th
Pontevedra 2023: 19th
Cagliari 2024: 12th
More importantly, she was in these races with swims and bikes (and transitions) that were competitive. Gwen was never even remotely in any of these races. You don't get picked for the Olympics when you have not even been close to competing in a WTCS race for 8 years. The argument that Gwen can win if there is a massive crash that takes out 20 women is beyond preposterous. You can say that about just about anyone.
so you don't see a clear upwards trajectory for someone that has been out of the sport for a few years (on top of the maternitIES) rather than just a few months and have 0 improvement?
Also who exactly is half the top women missing in Yoko? Because I count 4 - Cassandre, and the 3 brits, the other were all there and were either behind or thereabouts (Lehair 2 mins behind, Tertsch they ran together and were 5 sec apart).
You can also see massive difference in performance for basically all the girls that did both races, so I still stand by the fact that wasting the race subbing her out for yet another mid field placement for KZ was just dirty by USAT.
What about being competitive in transition? She was overall 5 seconds faster than Taylor Knibb.
On the swim? Again, same swim time as people that in Cagliari hit the first group, like Steinheuser or Tertsch...
Clearly we have different opinions and we look at objective data differently, but please don't act as if you hold the absolute truth :)
Re: Gwen Jorgensen Paris Olympics [mag900]
[ In reply to ]
Yeah, but have you considered the hypothetical situation where all the fields except Gwen get a flat 20Km into the bike?
/pink
People are having a real hard time letting go of Gwen’s Olympic goals.
Time to move on. It was fun while it lasted.
/pink
People are having a real hard time letting go of Gwen’s Olympic goals.
Time to move on. It was fun while it lasted.
TulkasTri wrote:
Yeah, but have you considered the hypothetical situation where all the fields except Gwen get a flat 20Km into the bike? /pink
People are having a real hard time letting go of Gwen’s Olympic goals.
Time to move on. It was fun while it lasted.
I know, let's move on. Perhaps USAT for the next race could sub out Matt Mac and have Jason West to race. Just to mix it up like they did in the women...