The discussion you are looking for can be found here: https://forum.slowtwitch.com/.../?page=unread#unread

That's a general discussion on ITU - I am specifically interested in Gwen and potential to Q for the USA Olympic Team. Thoughts?

https://forum.slowtwitch.com/...m/?post=last-7872951

This thread got locked a few months ago. Not exactly sure why.

Anyway, I would put her chances at less than 1%. She’s yet to show she can compete at the top level. She won a World Cup recently but that doesn’t have the same level of competition.

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blog

You need to update your odds. She is in the grand final. She has shown a huge improvement since May. The grand final will not include the top 2 cyclists in the sport so a big bike group coming out if T2 is likely. This weekend she showed she has the chops to ride with a strong bike pack and she did take her pulls on the front.

She is at worst a dark horse to auto qualify at the grand final. It requires a Top 3 finish. She is the most likely American to auto qualify. I’d give her 20%.

Agreed. No idea about the dynamics in Pontevedra, but her cycling seems strong enough to hang in a group. I’m most curious about the swim. Needing a sprint finish against Rachel Klamer in 2023 isn’t huge, but that was a tough bike and a win’s a win.

Not sure Spivey will be healthy, but even if she is I think her path to a top-3 is tricky. Small front group that stays away? Summer doesn’t seem to have the run that she did in previous seasons, although perhaps that is a casualty of her improved bike. Their paths seem pretty narrow.

Gwen seems the most likely of the US women to run to the podium.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

I'm less qualified to talk about ITU than I am to opine on pro long distance officiating. So hold my seltzer water, I have a couple thoughts:

Gwen is setting up a pathway for PTO invites and good money and fame.

Gwen is taking a long shot at the Olympics in case someone gets injured and sick etc in the process.

The way the Paris event is being described, it's impossible to break away on the bike, and will come down to a running race. Is it possible that by the time Paris rolls around Gwen is better at biking and swimming and is able to put herself in contention?

From what I read she was going for a spot on the mixed relay team, but if the Paris course suits her and she moves up enough timed with an unfortunate injury, who knows?

She certainly has the experience and won't be intimidated by the pressure etc like others might be so that works in her favor too.

But my odds are on using the USAT process to get her name out there, take a long shot at the Olmypics and get invited to participate in some of those 100k prize money PTO races.

It seems like a convoluted way to get her name out there. Traveling to far off places by herself? If her end goal is the PTO, why not spend time on her tt bike and do NA 70.3s? Rack up some wins and get invited as people pull out. Going for a spot in the mtr never made any sense.
2% chance.

Please no! We've had more than enough Gwen chat in there thank you! Glad someone did its own thread, Gwen has become the Lionel of ITU in ST!

Gwen is doing all this to get PTO invites?

I agree.

20% chance at this point, with almost all of that coming from the grand final auto qualification.

If she fails to do it there, it’s <1% from there on out.

I kind of want her to do it just for the chaos that would ensue as Team USA has to sort out the final discretionary pick.

It would be almost a repeat of Tokyo: choose between Spivey or Zaferes (because they are unlikely to choose Rappaport due to the need to have another mixed team relay insurance policy being selected.

Well, be sharp enough and fast enough to make a strong showing at them. Not just show up. I can't think of a better way to get fast quickly than race ITU on USAT's dime. And if she makes Paris, it's the crème on top of her profiterole or something.

Take away the politics and I give her 3% chance.. Add in all the BS politics of USAT and she will probably make it. While she is yes getting back into form. She is still cherry picking at this point...

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E-DUB
Chief Janitor @Slowtwitch
Life is short. Dont be mad all the time.

What is she cherry picking exactly? Races? Seems to me she's done most of the races she was allowed to enter and made sense. She just raced (and won!) two World Cups that couldn't be any different from one another in terms of course and race dynamics. Her swim is not far from where it ended (really good) in 2016. She seems to have improved what was her main weaknesses earlier this year (T1 mostly, and the start of the bike including the mount). She looks much stronger on the bike too. Her run while not quite as dominant as it was in 2016 is top level for short course triathlon nonetheless. I'd give her way more than 3% by now!

Can you elaborate on the USAT politics please?

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

I'd give her a slot, she's got a better chance of a medal than the rest of the USA girls other than Knibb come Paris I think.

https://tri-stats.com/is-it-time-to-board-the-gwen-jorgensen-hype-train/

I love a comeback story too! I hope she makes it! Her two wins definitely show she is improving!

I think she already said she isn't interested in doing longer distances so no PTO although she will be a threat with that run of hers, she can run the field down

The thing about AQ processes is that not every race or opportunity is the same. The GF in 10 days is looking to be the “weakest” front pack in years due to many of the key players injured (GTB, Duffy) or simply sitting it out (knibb), Which in turn helps an athlete like GJ and another American like Summer Rappaport. Those weaker bikers likely have the best chance to make the team in these scenarios.

That’s essentially how Rapp made Tokyo, when the top 2 crashed out suddenly it was Spivey vs Rapp. Spivey had the biggest implosion I’ve ever seen in itu when she lost I believe 2 mins to Rapp who passed her with 1/3rd mile to go to make the team.

So sometimes “luck” plays on your side with rolling onto a start and you then get your chance.

I would say she has a 1-6 type of chance. I don’t think she’s ready just yet to ride fop ability but when key players are missing that only increases your chances of being able to “hold on”. Even being the great runner she is Id think she comes in just off podium at best.

But this is the opportunity where everything has aligned.

Soft bike profile, the weakest FOP field she can hope for. If nothing else a huge boost in points which gets her into last AQ race in spring very likely.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

i don't see it. i mean, she's gwen - surely she could have gotten a wildcard invite to the PTO or superleague any time?

she's said before that she has no interest in the long course, which i think is a shame. she's definitely short on diesel power for the bike, and i don't think ironman would be for her. but the PTO distance could be great. get off the bike a bit behind, run into the good money! it would be great paydays and limited travel - definitely less globetrotting than WTS.

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https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

There’s actually been no politics as of yet to get GJ starts. If there were she would have been subbed in for Knibb on the GF which GJ’s husband is Knibb’s agent from the start of the start list publication. No Knibb allowed KZ to get the start and then GS and GJ went wait list. GS just busted her ass in back to back weekends in N and S America, so she likely wasn’t going to race it. They did sub GJ in for GS on the wait list so that was technically a “political” move, but she was I believe 2 spots behind GS so that got her in. But again GS raced back to back weekends in Americas so she likely was not going to take the roll on spot.

So with all that said and the weaker front pack, GJ easily has a 1-6 type of chance, much greater than if it was No roll on (duh you can’t AQ if you don’t race) or full field FOP quality Wtcs start, which this will not be.

I don’t think she’s ready just yet for the front bike packs, but if you could get the stars to align and have your day this is the exact circumstances you would want. Everything is aligning for this to be an unbelievable great shot for her.

She’s not cherry picking anything. She’s nominated herself for every Wtcs race since May and been stuck on wait list every time due to federation quota limits (which is a “political” move by WT to begin with). She even traveled to Japan for a Wtcs race with like 0.01% chance of rolling on. She’s doing everything in her power to make the team the right way.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Is it right that top-3 here & then top-3 in a 2024 spring race will serve as auto qualifiers? Then USAT will select the team if there are still open slots? Seems ludicrous to pick anybody other than Knibb (already qualified), Spivey, and Rappaport. They're all ranked in the top-10 in the world. If it came down to selection, it wouldn't feel right if GJ got picked over the next 4 Americans in front of her. It wouldn't even feel right if she got the nod over the other women ranked ahead of her who have been focused on short course. Will it be 2 completely new athletes for the mixed relay? Will they all come from the 3 in the individual race? 1 & 1? That could open up another slot.

GJ is obviously coming into great form with back 2 back World Cup wins. The US in triathlon is like Kenya/Ethiopia in the marathon. The Olympics don't always have all of the best athletes because you can only send 3 athletes. Kasper is an Olympian for almost any other country. The US women will have to leave some good athletes home. That's how it is. I guess the auto-qualification stuff is the most fair, provided that everyone in contention gets a shot to go for it. All 7 US women not qualified from Gwen on up are racing this weekend. Fair is fair.

serano took a roll on spot.
7 team usa and 7 germans on the start list now.

Yes it’s 1 AQ spot at GF so top 3 and spring race with 1 AQ and top 3. If no AQ next weekend minimum of 1 will be discretion.

Here’s the tough part about the Olympics. It’s no always about “deserving” it’s setup to allow federations to basically dictate who/how they select the team. The US’a policy is probably among the harder criteria but others like GB and FRA are double podiums at test event and GF (unless for GB your a previous olympic individual medal winner….see Yee AQ from test event while Potter did not).

Wanna talk about unfair. Go look at Matt McElroy he’s a top 15 athlete in itu and has been #1 or #2 American in ranking for 5 years now and likely won’t make Paris team if it goes to discretion.

And then you have to add the MTR into the discussion so there’s a whole bunch of layers especially when you get things like the lower ranked athletes AQ’ing leaving a better athelte at home- see Spivey vs KZ choice for final spot when both 2 lower ranked athletes AQ’d over them for Tokyo (Rapp at Tokyo test event. Knibb on a total flyer at the last chance Yoko event.

That’s the “ugly” side of federation racing. I’m just noting that GJ has not benefitted from any of that on this journey yet. And so federations need medal favorites, they don’t need athletes who come in 8th. That doesn’t fund them post Olympics, so again that’s the ugly side of itu racing.


It should also be noted that every American will get 3 chances to AQ for the team. So there is also the theory of adter 3 chances, the federation then pulls rank on deciding the team. Up until that time they stay pretty much out of it. The test event and the spring WTCS race has a 5 federation quota limit, it seems the GF has allowed up to 7 now (see US and Germany getting 7 on list and others may have more than 5, i've not checked it lately). But that's also why a strong showing her while not AQ'ing for GJ could be a huge step to getting inside the top 5 for US women. That's been her biggest hurdle- federation quota limits has limited her WTCS racing schedule, not actually "ability". She's clearly a deserving WTCS athlete this year, but she's been on outside looking in. So now is here big chance.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II