Tri-stats takeaways from Lievin: "Jorgensen did not enhance her Olympic case"
https://tri-stats.com/...al-lievin-world-cup/

i would agree it weakened her case for the relay, as in a more ruthless race scenario they would not let her back on the bike and left her for dead before the run had started . at the same time for the solo race where you can go more risk it did strengthen her case as she is really the only non qualified usa athelte that has the run to be in a chance for a medal should it be a bunch race of the bike and that is a solid compliment to knibb.
i understand pro jorgenson triathlon news have to talk her up, but her transitions and start of bike where still the slowest in the field. so spivey is clearly far ahead for 2nd slot in relay.
at the same time where tri stats are wrong gwen and katie had one job and that was to get direct qualification for world series races this year and i guess this is katies problem she had all the chances to close the deal and did not. she kind of blew it twice when she was in the driving seat .
still for relay zaferes is ahead of gwen i cant see a selector who wants to be responsible if gwens again has slow transition in the relay and everybody says we told you so, while for the solo race katie is not going to outrun knibb but she would be a good alternate for the realy if either knibb or spivey got injured and she could be a disrupter in the lead pack for knibb to get away in the solo race.

at the same time as interesing the fight for country spots is the way better way would be to have your slots clear by now and let the athletes really prepare for the games and not make them tired by having them to jet around the world.

gtb basically has made her case to be on the team let her prepare and let the other 2 fight for the last spot .

The good news in all of this GJ / KZ drama is that if Spivey makes the team, I actually don't think there is much issues if they pick GJ or KZ over anyone else. I think it'll be clear that Spivey (assuming she's healthy) and Knibb will be the MTR team. Then I think it's a matter of, do you pick KZ who can basically be a sure fire MTR "backup" type and/or domestique for others in the individual event. Or do you think GJ is a good enough wild card that she deserves the spot.


The "oh no" moment imo will be if say Rapp AQ's at Yoko. The chances are likely pretty high that she has a better chance to AQ in Yoko than GJ does even if the front group is slightly muted with fire power numbers (but it's likely not going to be strong chance to AQ for any American realistically; but then we saw what happened at Tokyo test event and how Rapp AQ'd that way). IMO only Rapp / Spivey have the ability to AQ in Yoko. KZ/Kasper don't have the 10km run (KZ has to get on the start list as first hurdle to overcome), and GJ imo will be too far back from a chase position likely to actually podium.

If that happens imo, you pick Spivey. Spivey allows the MTR relay order to not have too many issues, whereas GJ imo is going to have to rely on 1st American to be in the front group and that will only happen with Pearson. Rider I think will hand off with a deficit, that I think Spivey / KZ can pull back on the S and B, but not GJ.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I hope for you Americans that your relay is Pearson-Knibb-McElroy or Rider- Spivey. Anyhow, I don´t think you are as close to the rivals as you were in Tokyo. Clearly France and Germany are on the top, then team GB, then probably you. The best scenario then should be Spivey to AQ in Yokohama but I dont think it will be that easy: all the big names will be there. IMO Knibb will be the 1st american, so another american in the podium is a big call. A top 8 is feasible but who? Spivey is a better cyclist than Summer and Gwen, but not better than Zaferes. Gwen is the best runner but I don´t think there will be a big bunch in T2... if I have to say I would pick Spivey-Gwen-Zaferes-Summer-Kasper (spivey and gwen in top 8). Summer´s bike is weak, and I am sure some girls will hammer from T1.
As for the MTR, as I said, France with Bergere/Luis-Lombardi-Conninx-Beaugrand, and Germany with Schomburg/Luhrs-Tersch-Hellwig-Lindemann are better teams IMO. Team GB has a problem with the 2nd man (Brownlee? Izzard?Stapley?). I like Belgium (Geens-Van Riel-Michel-Vermeylen) and Switzerland (Brifford-Studer-Derron-Schär).

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

It's interesting I think it's almost equal the chance of a medal for the US between the men/women/MTR; they are all basically in the wildcard situation. I think within the MTR they are close enough that a bad leg, 1 flat tire sorta puts them in prime position to chase a medal. And I think relay order of Rider-Spivey-Pearson-Knibb is pretty good for putting them in the best position to be successful. I certainly won't say they will win a medal but those 4 racing on the MTR, I think will do well.

I guess you could put GJ in as the anchor if you put knibb 2nd and Pearson 3rd, but again I think she only can do well if she's in the group. If she's stuck chasing, I just don't know that she can pull back time on the B. It's almost 6km in Paris, so any weakness will be shown. Which is why I dont think you can pick McElroy.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

If you pick Gwen for the relay, she HAS to be in 4th position. And my opinion (not shared by many) is that she's the US woman with the best ceiling (result-wise) for a 4th relay too, because her run prowess can win it for you guys. The only thing is that you may not be in contention for the win by that point, for example if the first men relay is trailing by too much. But that's why you want a Knibb in 2nd, to make up the gap on the swim-bike. I'm not American and not necessarily rooting for you guys, but I think the best US relay is McDowell (he'll get better and better in the next few months), Knibb, Pearson, Jorgensen. 1st relay being for debate between McDowell and Darr Smith (unfortunately for him, McElroy is just not made for this format). Seth's run is just not good enough and his swim/bike not necessarily better than Darr for example.

I would think she has a bigger hurdle to overcome than Knibb does to win a medal though. But I dont know that it's really that big of a difference. But again it goes back to, if you think GJ is your best chance, why the hell are you going to have her race solo from the chase pack when every other US woman is a front pack athlete + Knibb's pathway is to only push the pace stronger. Which will only put more stress on the chase group. So she certainly can be picked because no one else really deserves it....that's more realistically the decision making than she's the best/top chance. At this point, everything is very much "wildcard" so again I'm more of a as long as Spivey and Knibb are there, they can pretty much pick whoever and no one can claim foul *this* time.


The biggest limiter imo on the men's side for the US- they just don't race enough either through not fit or injured. The men's spot will likely be harder decision than the women's 3rd spot; I think McElroy knows he has to AQ as MTR won't be in his cards. But everyone else is sorta in the mix, but you also don't know what you have if you don't race well or often enough. And now that there is no MTR, it's almost irrelevant how they look at Yoko. With how different the demands are, I still think you can "hide" a weaker run than you can hide a weaker S or B in the MTR. If you don't catch a wheel, you may lose 15s, you may only lose 5-8s on the run.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

McElroy AQing would be awesome for him, not so much for the American relay (but I guess not catastrophic either). Just as you said, it's harder to make up for poor swim-bike in a relay.

Rider isn’t doing himself any favors with how he has been running.

You can hide McElroy’s liability if you put Knibb second. If Norway makes the MTR and leads off Blu you might even get a free ride to the first pack (though honestly I don’t know if Mac can hold his wheel).

I think it’s going to be McDowell again, though. He wasn’t great, but it was his first race back. He got 6th in then Olympics 3 years ago so it’s not like the talent isn’t there.

The really tough thing I think for the men for the US- they literally havent raced much against each other outside of Rider/McElroy basically always racing all the races. Everyone else has sorta not been good enough to race or raced WC or raced events that didn't matter (Duathlon test event in Paris). And now we have it where it's like, how are you going to decided between Smith / McDowell / Rider when your basically only going to have OD races, and yet their spot is almost fully being picked for the MTR. I think McElroy is going to be picked over unless he AQ's. Which is sad, he's low key my favorite ITU athlete because he's basically grinded his way to success. The dude couldn't swim for shit and he kept his nose to the grind and worked his way to WTCS success, something that many "D1 runners" fail time and time again to do within the US. I still remember I believe he swam something like 6k swim workout 10 hours prior to the I think the 5k or 10k ncaa track champs and still made all american. He was "all in" before he even finished his NAU run career.

I really don't know how they'll pick the last men's spot. Tokyo's issue was everyone seemed to feel comfortable with being in the 3 male slots that it caught them sorta by surprise and then had a tough decision. Atleast now they all know the score, which again to me me, poor McElroy. Dude is a top 15 WTCS guy and he's just not going to make it unless he AQ's. Sometimes sports are unfortunately "cruel".

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

The olympic quota is not awarding the best athletes as it should, specially when the MTR came into play. It should be mandatory to send 2 athletes by ranking, and then the 3rd one might be a discretionary pick or a NF criteria. As it is now, you are leaving people out with these sorts of demands that maybe are fake (asking to get a podium to AQ when maybe nobody for that country has been top 5 in ages) that has no relation with the spots earned by the athletes for the federation . So, the question is: the individual race has more "rights" than the mixed relay? It is astonishing that some countries, with 5 or 6 athletes in the top 30, will send just 1 or 2 by AQ and the other will be discretionary or life or death spots (Yokohama) It is even so stupid that guys and girls who race weeked in and out for the MTR are not picked even they are in the top 30... Also, we have to consider the devaluation of the individual race because the federations pick people that maybe will do better in the relay but are not good for the oly distance... It is amazing that some people like Coldwell, Waugh, Rainsley, Kasper, Zaferes, Rappaport, Gwen, Luis, Bergere, Meissner, Priester, Gomez-Goggel might or will be out of the games (yes, this problem happens with France, Germany, UK, USA).
So, clearly, I would say WT to decide of they want to prioritize individuals vs team relay and athletes vs federations. In athletics, if you fulfill the IAAF criteria you are in and no discussion. Also, with these countries with so much talent, give them an extra spot...this is not swimming and athletics that are practised more or less over the world.

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

So I think the biggest issue is they are tagging 2 events together (OD + MTR) that really have no specifics alike other than it's a triathlon. It would be similiar to saying in track your 4x100 and 4x400 team members have to be the same people. Anyone in track would laugh in your face. But WT has sorta had to "bend the knee" to get the MTR into the Olympics, and thinking "big picture", the 1st few iterations of the Olympics will sorta suffer from it. Once WT pretty much goes to an sprint*ish* (whether sprint or super sprint heats/finals approach), then the more similar athletes across both spectrums- individual and MTR will be much more interchangeable.

WT asked for the sprint distance, SS format and Xtera short course style racing prior to Paris. It got denied because they wanted to add not replace. WT will then go back and say X will replace the OD format and then suddenly you'll have short course racing truly being short course. A sport governing body doesn't go down that unless it's pretty much going to make it happen. Coaches inside the sport have been theorizing it would be sprint distance since i've been in elite coaching since 2010 and that was with international coaches assuming it would happen. So it'll almost assuredly happen by LA '28 games almost for sure. There's no real reason not to anymore, I know publicly WT was saying they don't want to get rid of the 2 hour telecasts the OD races takes, but I think it'll get enhanced by having heat/finals approach. Potential for more athletes initially (ok even if the same, cool), but then better actual racing in the finals. ESPECIALLY imo when you have "boring" inner city courses. An 6km bike course is going to create much better racing than a 40km course in terms of "excitement" regardless of how vanilla the course is or not. Short distances like that will favor attacking style of racing, so if you are dropped from 1km into the bike, your race is going to be over (or dropped prior to T1).

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

GJ better hope to god Knibb isn't on the Yoko start list or better put it in Pat's ear to tell her not to race (lol). She's going to be on the struggle bus if she's not in that front group I'm afraid. She'll probaly still finish 2nd or 3rd American but if Knibb truly is racing, she's going to be solo'ing off the front and only causing more pressure on the chase group.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

So. If the OLY Tri turns into a Duathlon…. How does this change Gwen’s chance?

Well first she would have to make the team having done a proper triathlon, we wont know about a swim cancellation until just before the race. But swapping out a run for a swim would certainly help her, she wouldn't have to chase on the bike out of T1. But after that she would still have the problem of bike power and surges. But certainly better off than if they actually have the swim...

Have to think they will have some sort of swim some way. It would be the worst look to have to cancel because of water quality, especially after spending a billion + dollars to make sure it is clean...

No chance in hell there’s not a swim. No swim in the Seine is somewhat plausible, but they’ll have a backup plan in place.