Thanks for the splits. What are your thoughts on the 19:02 run split? Do you think the course was long, did she wear herself out on the bike or did she let up after she knew she had the win?

run course may have been long, i know there has been construction that has changed routes of other recent races.

I don’t take much stock in her run. I take way more in what she swam and biked w girls i know and see how that played out. 75s in rear of swim is a long way to go. As I said she’ll beast mode CC level racing (have a bad swim, meh bike and then run through the field) it’s WC and above that will make her pay for that type of poor swim and bike. She could probably sneak a top 10 at a lower out of way WC if she chose too (even the WC competition level can vary depending on location).

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

At 32 once she's done with T&F she should look to a long course career if she really thinks she can pivot. Trying to be a short course triathlete two years from now just slows down the conversion timeline required. It just makes no sense, like the next thing for her was to move to the 10k of half marathon as a runner.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

Results here

https://resultscui.active.com/...onmandraftlegalwomen


and men's here https://resultscui.active.com/...tonmandraftlegalmens

Sure appears that way. 1:05 to win a draft legal 750m/21k/5k. Granted it looks like per strava the amount in was 0.3 miles long

Though perhaps my view is skewed having seen some fast women (L Corbin, E Ackerland, some lower tier pros) race fast non-draft “local” sprints over the years

It will be interesting to see how she does after 2024 when she switches over and fully commits. I’m bearish in thinking that she makes any big waves in the sport as it’s not like there is a dearth of good young talent for the US. But who knows, only time will tell

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Matt

Being around the sport and the athletes since 2010 juniors, you “know” when you see talent. You could watch Knibb at 17 years old and just know she had the goods. Her ability, her calmness (she won itu jr worlds after coming out of swim 50Th place), her killer instinct.

Post ‘24 Paris is going to be a very interesting time for the US. Now as I said earlier if I had to put money on CQ making it or not, I’d put it on making her an MTR specialist because I don’t think you can get her into world class swim shape at the sprint or Olympic distance fast enough. And the 2 different races have such hugely different training demands and racing demands. It’s almost a shame that an 20 min race is aligned at the hip with an 1hr45min race. It actually makes no sense, the 2 events are worlds apart in terms of demands of competition, but because they are aligned the individual race still takes precedent over the mtr pathway:

But I could easily make the case for a Webb or CQ or a real world example- Seth Rider to turn into an “mtr specialist” and they would 100% meet the needs of the MTR. But again because of the individual race, they then go into that arena and suffer at times. But Seth Rider at 20 mins has shown he can be a top 3-5 split against a fully stacked field.

So if I’m in her camp- I’m pushing that pathway. She’s not going to be good enough at the Olympic distance swim to get top results.


ETA: And yes ultimately she'll have LC success easily if she wants to and stays in the sport long term.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

The woman in 2nd has some 108 score ratings from previous events. She put almost a minute on her in a sprint with less than a year of swimming/biking.

1:15ish back on the swim, held serve on the bike, ran the field down. That's a pretty good debut. She put 1:30-2:00+ on everyone on the run. It was definitely long. I'll say it again -- no woman has gone to draft legal racing with better speed/running PBs (4:22 mile/8:28 3k/9:10 3k steeple) + global results (8th Olympics, ). Now we know she can run off the bike.

I don't get the point of calling it a "poor" swim & saying "girls at this level don't bike strong nor run strong." This is a good result on limited training. Colleen looked genuinely happy out there after burning out a bit with pro running. I'm excited for her.

Because you and I are looking into the context of this from very different angles (again which is why I said her run was irrelevant, I wanted to know what her real world splits in the S and B would be....that's waaaay more telling in how this turns out than her run ability would be....we knew she'd run through the field). She 100% did exactly what she needed to do (and I said she would do it). Get the pro card so she can now essentially race any event she wants and go "all in" on now dialing in exactly what she needs to improve- IE her "poor" swim. And we can celebrate that, and be excited for her. None of my comments are taking away from that. And none of my comments are knocking her attempt. But let's not kid ourselves and think this was this just some "let's just have fun" (as if this is the Malibu celeb triathlon type of race) with a tri and go back to TF, there is certainly an "high performance" element going on here as well. Thus I'm looking at it from that angle of, where is she currently and how much "work" does she have to do to be successful in this sport at the high level. You don't race the EDR DL pathway if you are just out here for "fun" or a change of pace.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Todays non draft legal race the swim was short, about 500m, run course also short 2.86 miles. Although I heard a water main blew on the bike course

Yeah, swim and run were both short today...my Garmin said 640 yds for the swim, and 3.01 miles for the run. The water main break was right after the split of the short loop / long loop (by the kids camp), so we had to slow down and go single file through that section.

I was there cheering. It was really fun to see all the college kids racing.

Yeah, it was a cool environment with the team aspect that you don't normally have at a run-of-the-mill tri. And I was impressed with variety of teams that travelled to do the race, and how many college racers there were.

Yeah, Stanford had a really big group, and yeah it was awesome to see the teams cheer for their team members.

so FOMO... wish it was held during the warmer weather days!

Competing as part of a relay tomorrow in Indian Wells 70.3. Doing the swim and bike legs.

Colleen is really cool. I ran the 5th Ave mile in 2018 when she ran it and got 2nd. I keep up with her insta and she always responds, likes, and is very nice/professional. I’m a fan.

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https://www.strava.com/...tes/zachary_mckinney

Per her strava she swam a 31:59 and rode a 2:26:48

Not sure where that would slot her in among all females for each of those legs since Ironman makes it annoying to find results/splits if you don’t use their app.

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Matt

The overall female AG winner went 32 on the swim and rode 2:15, but ran a 1:25. So if Colleen was 10 minutes down after the bike she would have to run a 1:15 or better (depending on transitions etc), so maybe?? 2nd OA AG was + 5 minutes, so that is more likely, and 3rd was + 17 minutes, so that would have been “easy”

If Colleen runs a sub-1:20 off of those swim/bike splits, she could have been around 5th pro. I don't see why she couldn't routinely be doing that off of her open PBs (and going a good bit quicker). Shows how hard it is to come over to triathlon & try to get good at swimming. If she wants to commit to something, long course might be a little friendlier for her than short course. No reason she can't be similar to Jewett & podium @ North American 70.3s.

Also that overall AG winner finishes 4th in the pro field with a 32/2:15/1:25.

Also of note - she did the ride on a road bike. Would except her to be significantly faster if setup properly on a TT bike.

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___________________________________
MS: Exercise Science
Your speed matters a lot, sometimes you need to be very fast, where sometimes you need to breakdown your speed.

And for a complete picture Loevseth raced 4:08 (28 2:15 and 1:20 +T1&T2). The top amateur (Brittany Shappell with 4:20) would have come #5 in WPRO behind Smith (ack bike environment/slip-streaming different).
CQ recorded times: 31:47 swim, 6:01 T1, 2:26:58 Bike (from tracker: Team 4084)

She did it on a road bike! Impressive! Definitely would have won with tt bike https://www.instagram.com/...ding&img_index=4

A road bike without aerobars, that appears in the photo to be ill-fitted (too large), wearing a regular bike kit. Only one woman broke 2:20 from the pro category … not sure what to think of that bike split, are we sure it’s accurate? It seems implausible. It would likely imply she put out more power on the bike than any of the pro women except perhaps the winner.

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Dimond Bikes Superfan

She’s wearing a WYN republic Tri suit, custom made for the Lululemon team. It’s not a regular bike kit.