BLeP wrote:
I don't think the GOP as a whole will be damaged by it. In general it's good for those who vote GOP. Trump on the other hand
should be damaged by it as it will negatively affect a large portion of his voters. Note: I said should. Based on the unwavering support this group gives him, it probably won't negatively affect him.
Again with the comparisons to Rob Ford, if he hadn't died from cancer I can almost guarantee that Ford Nation would have pushed hard for him to be re-elected mayor. Even after the crack scandal turned out to be completely true. Even after he drunkenly spoke with a Jamaican accent and it was broadcast.
Even after... (it goes on and on...) both ford and trump benefit from a Keyes Constant of support probably around the low-mid 20s. those people will hang on no matter what. but that's not enough to win, and all the rest of their support is contingent.
i think the important part with trump and ford is that in order for something to truly damage their popularity, it needs to be something that contradicts their 'brand.' ford was famously uncouth to begin with, so further evidence of that didn't really amount of much in the eyes of his supporters. he was also famously devoted to "the little guy," and preoccupied with "cutting the waste." so if his detractors had more clearly been able to indicate that ford was a spendy elite who rigged the system to benefit himself and his rich pals, that would be hugely damning and would cost him core support.
for trump, the question is what his core brand is: celebrity? wealth? going after him for being brash and rude, or inconsistent, or ignorant of details, or vague and jingoistic, or selfish - these things won't amount to much. but you may get traction out of showing he's much less rich than he claims, or that he doesn't care about the 'little guy,' or that he's not an 'outsider/maverick' but is beholden to entrenched interests. those cut more to his brand and might work out.
that or, as they say, a dead girl or a live boy.
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