1.Lange
2.Sanders
3.Frodo

1.gomez
2.frodeno
3.hoffman

1.Lange
2.Sanders
3.Frodo

Frodo
Hoffman
Kienle

Ryf
Jackson
Kaisa

THIS... But if Hoffman is ever going to win, I think this is the year.

If you have Sanders in the top 3... I'm laughing at you. If you have Lange in the top 5, you don't realize he was injured almost all year. If you have Gomez listed, you don't follow the sport. If you have TO anywhere, I'd assume you've never had a child.

Anyone else we should mention in the not gonna happen list? It's pretty comical, if you follow enough people on social media, you know how well they've been able to train. Jesse Thomas might get that top 5 if he doesn't race anyone because it appears to me (n=1) that the depth of field targeting this race is small and then even smaller when you consider guys like Don will actually race and blow up. Tim Reed could have a top 10 (maybe 5). Braden Currie could do something cool.

Anyone leaving out Crowley for the women hasn't looked up her result sheet this year...

1.Frodo
2.Kienle
3.Nilsson (with a new run course record)

Anyone leaving out Crowley for the women hasn't looked up her result sheet this year...

Nilsson - are we talking Kona or bar hopping with John Lennon?

Seriously though - I follow this crap closer than probably 90 percent of triathletes and I need to Google your third choice pick. Am I missing something obvious?

ETA - Patrick Nilsson, gotcha. Not really on my radar but a 7:49 and a 7:55 are pretty impressive. How hot was Barcelona? Can Swedish dudes handle that heat?

I would definitely recommend putting this guy on your radar! 7:55 was after mechanical issues so he rode solo. He outran Lange and everyone else in Frankfurt with a 2:39 and it was 35°, so yeah he can handle heat ;)

Ok ready to put up my top 5 men.

1. Frodo
2. Lange
3 Sanders
4. Keinle
5. Hoffman

My rationale; I really wanted to pic Patrick for the win, think he would have won last year without the penalty but, Winners find a way to win, Frodo is a winner. Last year was a lucky wake up call for him regarding Lange,(assuming Lange does not spot him 5 minutes of course) and I think that he will now have prepared for that. He will do whatever he has to on the bike to not start the run with him, where he usually would just go with the flow of the group. He probably of course has a head to head running plan, but he won't be smiling like he does running with Keinle.

And with Keinle and Sanders just 4 to 5 minutes back, Frodo will have his opportunity to have someone else make a move and then go with it. He doest have to stay with them all the way, just make that gap to T2 as much as possible.

After Lionel's great swim today I'm confident that he will have enough left after the catch to continue to have a great race. Don't think he can outrun either of the Germans, even getting spotted 5 minutes, but he outruns Keinle and Hoffman.

Keinle gets a good lead to T2 with Sanders and perhaps a Wurf or Weiss, or someone else having a great bike day, or just going for the bike record. His run will suffer, but he is used to suffering on the run, holds form and doesn't usually blow up completely.

Hoffman has a great race, is in the thick of it the whole way, but there are just guys faster than him out there.

Now any of these guys falter I like Nilsson, Don, and TO to fill their spots. TO has been there so knows what it takes, Don seems to be on a roll even discounting that bike in Rio, and Nillson is that guy who cracked top 10 that continually moves up until they challenge for the win someday.

do you believe there is any chance of Frodo cracking, being a bit older and just bearing more pressure.//

I don't expect him to crack on the bike, he is a very smart racer and he knows his body. He won't lose the race on the cycling roads. If he feels the pace is too hot he will drop off and make sure he has his most lethal weapon, the run. None of those guys that could drop him will be a threat in his mind, he will be worrying about who is behind, or next to him.


Like I said, dude is a winner and he will put himself in the best possible position to make that happen. Over cooking the bike is not in his nature.

Keep in mind that Kienle and Sanders can run mid 2:40's in non Kona IM's so you don't want to give them too large a lead. //

I believe Wurf will be out of sight before the dynamic duo of K/S shows up, and he may stay out there all day solo. He is after one thing only, so on a kamikaze mission for the bike course record, cant wait around for guys 2 to 5 minutes off the back.


And you have to keep in mind that those two have to probably close 5 minutes to the lead group, not an easy feat and likely riding over normal watts. So really they only have the last half of the bike to make things happen and Frodo really only needs to ride with them for awhile, if it is reasonable. Both those guys and maybe TO and Hoffman will all be thinking long term, so I expect some small time gaps in the last 30 miles, but nothing to worry Frodo. Like you said, mid 2;40's but not at Kona. I figure Keinle 2;50 flat at best and Lionel high 2;40's, all manageable for Frodo giving up a few minutes on the bike.


I still believe it is Lange in his head in this race because he is the "one" guy that outruns him by a pretty good margin, and at Kona, not somewhere else that times are funky. No one really has to run off the legs they have at Kona either during the year, just no comparisons. It is an all in mentality for most the guys there, the hold back pacers are usually just looking to crack top 10.

1. Frodo repeats (would like to see Gomez dethrone him in time)
2. I hope SB podiums he deserves it. Poor swimmers love to root for him
3. Tim Don. He knows it's the twilight of his career. Still banging on all cylinders and wants to finish big.

sorry Americans. I dont see it.

1. RYF RYF RYF
2. three in contention
3. Lucy Charles. She could be big

Kienle. The b is close to the k on Saturday nights. Fixed it

1. Frodeno - no weakness. Don't think Kienle can run with him, Sanders/Lange maybe if they came off the bike with him... big ask.
2. Lange
3. Kienle

Women

1. Ryf
2. Crowley
3. Charles.

Can't wait!

Care to expand on your men's picks & tell us where you think Sanders will end up?

1 sanders
2 frodo
3 lange
4 keinle
5 Hoffman

I just like sebastian too much for him to win again. I think The Hoff is too much like the Utah Jazz I grew up with.... I knew Karl malone was really good, but i knew Jordan was better.

Side note: I was watching the race last year on course maybe mile 10 of the run when a pro with a white kit ran by, it felt like he was in 100th place. He had his whole kit stuffed with what seemed like a years worth of food and sponges I mean really weird looking and it all was shaking and was really kinda loud! I laughed in my head and even had a thought like what the crap is this dude doing, I was thinking yep there goes a rookie, of course he's in 100th place he is running slow and carrying his house in his kit. haha I am now almost positive it was Lange! Wow I wish i had any battery left on my phone I really missed out. Did anyone else notice this?