Over 12

At first glance and without really thinking about it too much, I'm not sure you'll run that pace off that bike time. If your FTP is 310 your target power is ~73%. Running 3:40 off an open mary of 3:21 could be a big ask after that bike.

My advice is shoot a little lower on the bike to give yourself a better chance of running well. If you bike just a little bit too hard it can cost you buckets of time on the run, it is a fine line. You could easily end up "running" well over 4hrs if you overdo it. You could go fifteen minutes slower on the bike and run half an hour quicker. Plan for this race as a triathlon.


= recipe for disaster, IME.

If he sticks to his plan, then I agree, implosion and over 12 hours.
Pace it more conservatively, and I'll guess 11:15.

BTW, which IM is this coming Sunday, don't see one on the schedule on the Ironman page?

Swim: 1:07
Bike: 4:55
Run: 4 hours +/- 15 minutes

I hope you do it (seems like we have very similar data though I'm targeting sub 11) but the lack of swim volume make me think it won't.

Swim: 1:23
Bike: 5:19
Run: 3:57
Transitions: 7:00

Total: 10:46

But it'd be helpful if you shared which course and any other half/oly times.

Hi - should have said that - its not an ironman-event. Its a local norwegian race: coastman (http://www.coastmannorway.com). First year event - will be small field so no big fight in the water:)

Thanks for input on predicted implosion. I realize that I will be hurting bad from 20k on the run any way I play it - question is just how badly. I will naturally also adjustment by feel on the bike - I plan on having the bike feel easy and if 225w starts to feel hard(or im not able to take in planned nutrition) I will dial back.

I am also very aware that 3:40 Off-bike is on the optimistic side- but I thought that if I bike within my goal-power I can go out at about 5 -5:10 pr k and try to hold that steady. If I hold it really good I'll hit 3:40. If not I hope i dont slow down more than 30-1 min pr k - so i could go closer to 3:50-4:00 depending og when and how bad I slow down.

I get that most find my plan optimistic, but Im curious what would be considered the single worst mistake:

(i) going to hard on the bike, or
(ii) going out to hard on the run?

Thanks!


The course is not an IM-event - so I guess not known to the crowd here on ST. Here is my garmin file from the test-ride I did. This is exactly 1loop of totally 4 for the bike leg:

http://connect.garmin.com/activity/825607984

Its rolling pretty much all the way, but quite flat by norwegian standards.

I was happy with the test-ride bit found my HR a bit higher than normal - did the ride the day after my HIM of 4:36 (ref first post) - so was a bit fatigued.

I dont have very many other race times to reference this year, other than the HIM. I did one oly at approx 2 hrs in june - however the swim was shortened to 5-600m, and the bike and run courses were really hilly (I went 1:08 on the bike at 283NP - http://connect.garmin.com/activity/803668307)

I think most people would agree that it is going too hard on the bike which causes most folks' IM to fall apart. You hit the run with dead legs and everything goes to hell.

One thing I don't think you mentioned - what endurance training have you done? When I did my first IM a couple years ago, I had similar short course fitness/times to you, but I didn't train for endurance. My longest ride that year before the IM race was 90km, and I only did that a couple times. Sure enough, 120km into the hilly IM bike course, my legs were cramping big time, and my run turned into a near 5 hour walk/jog.
Most of my friends who have been successful in their IM attempts, which is to say, they didn't walk the run, did a -lot- of 5-6 hour training rides in the months leading up to it.
Have you done a lot of those?

If the info you've given (FTP 310 W) is accurate and the recent HIM is a comparable course, I think you should be quite close to 10 h!
Swim - 1h10min should be easy for a 31 min HIM swimmer.
Bike - 73 % of FTP is very doable (and thus 5 h), especially given your training has been bike heavy.
Run - Agree with others that 3:40 is ambitious. If you took it conservatively at first, you could be sub 3:50 (if nutrition etc. is right).
Best of luck - and patience to racing!

Based on his/her own numbers, he's averaged about 6 hours per week on the bike (390 hours = ~ 8 hours per week of training, so 6 hours on the bike). The training might have been 'bike heavy' in terms of percentage of training, but it doesn't sound like the volume required to do 73% of FTP and still be able to run. Just my .02.
Plus, based on those numbers, it sounds like there has been very little run training!

OP - I love seeing people go for it in a race. I say see what you can do.....worst case, you blow and its a learning experience.
Cheers

Hey, check this out:

http://www.endurancecorner.com/energy_pacing_your_ironman


Calculate you run power equivalent for your goal pace here: http://alancouzens.blogspot.com/...ower-calculator.html


Try to negative split (save more power for the run).


If I were you I'd go:
- 215W on the bike
- aim to run 3:55 - this doesn't mean start going out at 3:15 pace and then crumbling... Just stay at a 9min/mi pace and if you got anything left use it in the last 10k.


You could go:
1:10 swim
5:07 bike
3:55 run
T1+T2=8 min


total: 10:30~

Agreed your strategy seems similar to Dave Mirra in LP so over 12 might be high but if you bike a 5 expect a blowup of 4.5 + marathon.

This is something I've thought about. I have done A few but prob not as i should. However - did a 5hr hard race in may and felt fine (think i had about 250 np for about 5hrs and felt ok. In previous years I did more long rides - did a 15 hr bike event some years ago and obviously had lots of long rides then. Hopefully I can float some om this:)

That's more likely a lack of calories, not lack of legs.

If you get your nutrition in order, you have a good shot, if not you won't blow but kinda wither away.

Best of luck.

If you did a HIM in 4:36, it seems pretty stupid to suggest you will go over 12h on the full distance (could happen but shouldn't)
My figures are very similar to yours but my Marathon is 3h flat, and I expect to go between 10-11h, I would guess you will go 10:10.

I am making my long distance debut in 4.5 weeks, let me know how you get on!

The biggest red flag in your stats is that you are 79kg. If you were 65kg then you might have a shot at sub-10 hours, but you will be doing the "IM shuffle" by mile 10 on the run based on your plan.

This is your best case, but my prediction is 11:13:


Swim 1:10:00T1 0:05:00Bike 5:10:00T2 0:03:00Run 4:15:00
Total10:43:00

Thanks for those links! I'll definatley read those closer. Your suggestions are probably the more sound way to go. On the other hand I trend naturally to the most optimistic outcome - even realizing this could lead to A poorer result. But you for me thinking it could be smart to dial the bike back just a notch.

I guess this is because of the run? I used to be 82 and def feel faster given the 3kg loss.

However I would think given the forecast (13c and rain) I am better of A bit bulky:)

Dialing the bike back a notch and not running faster than 8:30/mile for the first 13 miles would be the way to go. Problem is that is incredibly hard to do in reality. Purposefully adding another 10 mins to a bike split that already feels comfortable makes it seem like you are coasting and leaving time on the table, but the reality tends to be that you want to do that because that 10 mins lost on the bike will pay dividends back on the run. I'm not as fast as you on the bike, but my stand-alone marathon PR is 3:13. If I had biked 10 mins slower and started running at 8:45s instead of 8:20s, I probably could have hit my 3:45 marathon goal. Instead I blew up and ran a 4:30, although it was a very hot day. The cooler temps will def help you.

I just don't see a scenario where you come close to sub-10. Sub-10:30 would be a more realistic, but still challenging goal.

That is assuming he/she has actually trained for the full. 7-8 hours per week total training doesn't sound like much to me. I did the same amount, and my 70.3 times ranged from 4:35 to 5:10. Then I tried a full IM on the same training, and hit 12:30..... Of course, everyone is different, so who knows!....

If I'm looking at the numbers correctly your TSS estimate is 264. Run should be fine.

I see the point of you and others saying a HIM of 4:3x doesnt necessarily equate to a close to 10 IM. You are probably also right I havent had a 100 optimal program for full IM. However - the yearly avg i posted could be misleading. I had 2 bad months in dec/jan, and abit feb. From march I've been quite consitant above 10hrs/week, and may/june was approx 15hrs/week.

I know im probably a bit on the light side training-wise for sub 10 - but heck, that wont stop me from tryin:)

You know yourself better than anyone here. Go for it!

Thanks:)

Just to have said it - I have A great deal of respect for the fact that a full IM is a totally different beast from a HIM - and there lies the great uncerainty for me. I know pretty well how I bike 180k - and I (think) I know how my legs are the first 5 k after that. What. Focus on is to get to the run in a state that will enable be to run not shuffle. I know from the open mary's alone that blowing on the run reeeaaally slows - and of course I see the possibility that this will slap me in the face from k 5. However hope to push through as long as I can! I guess this is where the mind also plays a really big part? If I get to 25-30k without blowing I've given myself the opportunity to get sub 10 (or in the 10-region) - thats kinda my best Scenario:)

Thanks for all the input - race morning is now just about 7 hrs away! Best get some sleep:) will definatley take the advice posted here and be conservative on the bike. Especially cause the weather forecast shows quite alot of wind - could be a hard day pushing watts in heavy head/crosswinds! Plan is to go out around 215-220 w for the first half - and only if I feel really great will I dare go any harder and move towards 225w.

Scouting the run course today it was also more hilly than I'd expected, and I will try to go no faster than 5:00/k for the first 20, and see how I feel. I expect to slow down some but hopefully not alot if I have the legs i hope for:)

Time goals are now of less focus - I will just give it my best and try finish - be it 10 or 11 hrs. Even though I hope for 9:59:59 my own prediction has me at around 10:15:):) both numbers hopefully will be irrelevant to me tomorrow until i vridd the line.

You and the guy in the other first IM prediction thread remind me alot of me in anticipation of my first IM a month ago ;) Most important is to have fun. I had fun, especially on the bike. Probably a bit too much fun ;) But trying to hold 5:00 kms for 20k and expecting to pick it up after that...well I really hope you can but with a 1:37 HIM run that is not very likely (unless I missed some other run splits). I'd say more 3:50 ish if you decide to pace it more conservatively from the start.

If I'm guessing the right name based on his posts, I'd say he's having a pretty good day so far, in first place I think!
http://www.eqtiming.no/Result/?eventUID=19548#


Looks like the first split of the run was a 5:22/km pace. Hope he keeps it going!

Race Report - Coastman Norway 2015

Thought I'd try my first report after going out asking ST for predictions:) To summarize I had a great day and really enjoyed my first IM (I guess enjoying an IM is a kinda twisted sort of enjoyment but I'm guessing that ST is one of the places that understands this:)) That was the short version - if you care for the long version read on.

RACE MORNING

Woke up at around 0415 and had a fairly small breakfast - oatmeal and two cups of coffee. Packed my stuff and drove to swimstart. Arrived at the start around 05:45, and had plenty of time to check my gear for the last time before check-in (in this event bike check-in was not the day before, like it normally is in IM-events). The weather was cold (11C), windy and rainy. I ride Veloflex Record tubular-tires on my bike, and since I have flatted 2 times (both when raining) the last month, i chose to bring an extra spare on my bike because of the rain (bringing 2 in total). Didn't want flats to prevent me from finishing my first IM!

Because of the weather I packed my T1-bag with a lot of different clothing, thinking I would make the final desiscion on what to wear after the swim. Checked my gear one last time and was ready to go! Body felt pretty good, but a bit nervous I have to admit.

SWIM

Swimstart was 0700 - the water was pretty decent for being way up here - around 14.5C - pretty OK for swimming with a wetsuit. Because of the wind the swim was moved from one side of the harbor to another, so despite the windy weather the swimming conditions were ok - definitely not calm waters but not to much chop. The swim was a 1900m loop we would swim twice. The northern 100m of the loop were exposed to weather, and had some waves but not to bad I'd say.

The start went well - and since the field was only about 60 ppl there was no washingmachine/bashing around for the first part - only 50 m of contact with others and then I was free! Amazing what this does to the feeling for the rest of the swim. I got to settle into my own rhythm without being short of breath. I swam at a pace I knew I could hold for a long time, and tried not to push it - Since I had never done a full before I figured that the few mins I might shave of my swim time by pushing the pace would take more out of me for later - so not worth it.

Finished the swim comfortably in 1:07. Good start to the day!

T1

The first transition was just by the swim-exit, so it was a nice, short transition. Only 100m or so to run from water to the changing tent. Got my suit of without any trouble, and slipped on my helmet, socks and cycling-shoes. For the occasion - having seen the forecast of wind and possible more rain throughout the day I actually chose my winter-cycling shoes to keep my toes from freezing. I also debated on whether or not to take my wind-jacket. I was pretty cold when I stripped of my suit. It was still only approx 12-13 C, raining and quite windy. It was either my 1-piece tri-suit without any sleeves or the wind-jacket over the tri-suit. I went with the latter, to make sure I would not start the bike freezing. As I'll get back to, I think this was a small mistake, but nothing major.

Exit T1 after 4:17 - was pretty efficient but room for improvement.

BIKE

The conditions were very windy at start, and would only get worse. The bike-course was a 4-loop out and back. We had strong headwind going out and tailwind back. The course was rolling all the way, and I immediately figured that the bike-leg would be tough. I had ridden the loop 1 month in advance in calm conditions. That time I did 1 loop of 45 k comfortably in 1:14:xx - (just over 36 km/hrs avg) at around my goal-wattage of 220. Today was a totally different story. The first loop I rode at a my goal-wattage, holding 216wAP/224w NP for the first loop, and it took 1:21 (iow 6-7 mins slower than my test-ride a month before in good conditions, where I held the same watts). I realized that my wind-jacket probably (even though it has quite a snug fit) caused quite a bit of drag, and I decided to throw it for the next tree loops. Turns out this saved me some time (I think). Because of the conditions I figured the bike leg would take a bit longer than I had planned (and hoped), so I decided to dial back my watts even another notch (also after listening to all the guys posting in here, I concluded that overbiking is a pretty common first IM-mistake, especially for someone like me: feeling like a pretty good biker wanting a good bike-split :))

I rode the next two loops at a steady output of around AP 205 / NP 210. After ditching my wind-jacket and focusing on getting low I managed to get my go a bit faster these laps even though I held back my watts. Went exactly 1:17:xx for both of the next two 45k laps.

Coming into the last lap I felt pretty good. Still - as the wind was ever-increasing I figured I should take the last lap even more easy to get my legs ready for the marathon (I heard talk about them measuring a steady 16 meter/second wind as the wind increased - thats a 36 mph wind! This felt crazy - mind you I was riding a disc and 60mm front). Finished the last loop at around 1:21 - holding around 190w AP - 200w NP.

Nutrition had been going as planned on the bike. I brought 3x750ml of liquid nutrition (about 450 kcal pr bottle), and I had 4 home-made energy-bars that work for me (each at around 150 kcal). The plan was to do 1 bar pr loop, and get down the first two bottles of liquid on the first two loops. After that i planned on getting in some water and the last liquid on laps 3 and 4. This worked wonderfully, and I even felt the thist to grab one of the race-organizers bottles of sports-drink on the last loop and get that down as well. I also supplemented with 2 bananas handed out at aid stations. I figure I took in somewhere around 1800 - 2000 kcal on the bike.

Total time for the bike was 5:19 - 203 AP / 216 NP. The course was about 1,5k to long, because of the moved swim (they had to move T1/T2, which meant another 6-700m transport-section on bike before we got onto the originally planned route). My Fenix 3 logged about 2 100m elevation for the bike, but I think this is a bit high. I think the real number is closer to 1200 - 1500 m.

T2

Coming into T2 I felt pretty fresh, having been able to hold back on the bike. Racked my bike, left my helmet and switched to my running shoes. I had debated with my self if I should run in my altras One 2.0 or the heavier, but more cushioned Brooks Pure Flow. I actually had both shoes in my T2-bag. I went with the Brooks, thinking this would leave me less exposed to having busted legs after 15k.

I was out of T2 in about 2 min - pretty much as quickly as I could manage.

RUN

The marathon was the one part of the IM I had no idea of how I'd fare. I've ran two open mary's before (3:26 and 3:21), and felt shot from 25-30k and out. I wondered if I'd feel the same in the IM-mary from 5-10K. If so - I was in for a long run!
My one big focus coming into the run was not to go out to hard. I felt great from the first step, and caught myself getting to eager. I realized this when my garmin beep'ed for the first K - 4:33. way to fast! I slowed way down and ran the next few k's in 5 - 5:15. This felt really comfortable, and I decided to just try hold this for as long as I could.

The run began with a 12k stretch, after that there was an out-back section of 10 k to be run 3 times. The first 17k was run into the headwind. While the wind was definitely less of a factor than the bike, the wind still felt annoying. On the other hand my body actually felt great - and my 5:15/k pace felt comfortable - for now:) After around 15-20k the pace started to feel heavier - I had probably slowed to around 5:30/k. However, I felt my legs should be able to keep the pace, but it got more and more mentally challenging to hold the pace. At this point, I also - for the first time - started feeling that it was hard to take in fluids and food. For the run I had planned on gels and bananas, and coke+water. This was fine up until 20k, but felt harder after this. I decided to stick with bananas and some coke, but I had to take it really easy after the aid stations - felt like the intake had to "settle" abit in my stomach before I could return to the pace I wanted to hold. This worked ok, and I was able to keep running (as opposed to walking). At around 22k something wierd happened - I suddenly felt fresh again! My pace didn't pick notably up - but mentally I started to feel confident that I would be able to keep my pace pretty much steady the last 20 k! This feeling lasted about 6-7-8 k, before I gradually felt more fatigued. I also had to take a few stops in the portable toilets - had to get rid of some fluids! I also started to allow my self to walk 50 m at a time every time I crossed a high bridge on the out-back section (I walked a steep section with heavy wind). This lead to a couple of slow km-s for the last half, but as long as I stayed running i held my pace around 5:30-5:45. I felt quite good about the fact that I was able to stay running (mostly), and that I kept my pace pretty good.

The last 2-3k I felt just absolutley amazing - I knew the finish was just 15 min away, and I had completed my first IM without any major issues! The last 2.5 K I actually managed to pick up my pace back to 5:05 pr K! This definitely felt tougher than the pace I had been holding just before, but it made me think that I probably have a lot of room for improvement in terms of pushing the pace (but - that's for the next one when I have some sort of idea what I'm up against!). Finished the run in under 4 hrs, which was a little slower than I had hoped for but a lot faster than I had feared!

Run 3:57. Fenix 3 logged about 450m elevation for the run course. This also - probably a bit high - but not by that much. The course was slightly up and down all the way, with 6 crossings of a taaaall bridge.

Total time: 10:30.

AFTER THE RACE

After the race I felt fantatic. Body was naturally worn down, but it felt great having finished! The think I am most happy about is that i performed to my abilities - I had a pretty decent plan and was able to stick to it (mostly!). This was a great feeling! Sure - I might have been able to push the pace abit more on the run, but at the time I felt happy enough to just being able to keep running and finishing!

Also - as another bonus - I won the event:) I had a pretty good lead at 20k in the run, and this was probably also something that mentally kept me satisfied - no need to push more than I needed to keep my placing:)

To summarize I am super happy about my first IM. I figure I would have biked quite a bit faster if the conditions had been better (dry roads from the start and no wind), but I definitely think sub 10 would have been a long shot! I am guessing some 15 min + faster on the bike in better conditions, so I still have some time to make up for on the run. Probably I can pick up a few minutes by getting mentally tougher, but getting in some more run-milage definatley will help! I never ran any much more than 30 - 50k / during training for the IM. I guess this will have to be ramped up pretty much if I am to get my run-split down towards 3:30 :)

Congratulations! Very decent result for the first IM and in challenging conditions.
BTW, looks like my prediction below was pretty spot on.

Congrats!

Hehe yep - winner of the prediction-contest:) the links were usefull!

Great job on your 10:30 finish. I am training for IM LOU as my first full and had initially hoped for sub-11 but a bout of illness and then an injury got the best of me. I'll be happy to finish now and not wanting to risk reinjury pushing myself on the run.

I win?

I think Sp1ke got it:)