jackmott wrote:
SurfingLamb wrote:
Plugging theoretical numbers into a spreadsheet does not take into account the many other real world factors involved in racing at Kona.
Sure it does, if you build the spreadsheet properly.
But you cannot build a spreadsheet that takes into account the point I am making can you?
I am not talking about putting the number zero into a spreadsheet for the temperature difference between wearing an aero helmet and not wearing an aero helmet. My point is one of perception, which is an experienced based construct, not a quantative number you can throw into a computer.
I can perceive it to be hot, or I can perceive it to be cold, or I can perceive it to be somewhere in-between. I can perceive there to be an effect on my temperature due to my choice of equipment. If my perception is that I am overheating, my performance declines. If my perception is that I am not overheating my performance does not decline. Whether I am overheating or not is actually pretty irrelevant at this point - if I perceive I am too hot the spread sheet has not taken this into account. Its my perception which is not a measurable scientific number and is very N=1.
Ryf obviously had a reason for using a road helmet - probably due to humidity and temperature and but we are guessing here. She has used both aero and road helmets before, so its not like she has not made an informed choice. She knows what they both feel like, and she knows 1 is aerodynamically faster than the other.
The research can say there is not temperature difference (and there is no research for a 112 mile ride out to Hawi here) and the aerodynamics can say the aero helmet is 3 minutes faster all day long. If Ryf's
perception is that she is going to overheat she made the right choice. The spread sheet cannot take account of that, and it cannot tell us if she would have overheated or not. All the spread sheet can do is add, subtract, divide etc etc etc
I did note in her interview with Bob Babbit she said she only got to the Island on Tuesday and had not ridden all the course. I am guessing she used a road helmet because she had not tested and aero one on the course. She is not N=1 at that either, once you see Chrissie winning with a road helmet if kind of gives it an acceptability.
I am not saying your spread sheet is wrong, I am saying that it cannot tell us she would have been 3 minutes faster at the finish line. I am right in what I am saying.
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